Weather - June 2

By: beell , 1:58 AM GMT on June 03, 2013

Share this Blog
1
+

College of DuPage-Severe Weather Warnings

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
mouse-over for product title, click for full product




Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 30 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

30. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:52 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
beell has created a new entry.
29. beell
10:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2013
Morning, bf,
I hear ya. That was a good one to observe and study in real time. I didn't get much of anything productive done either besides a few hours of wxgeeking!

TTYL, as they say.

:-)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
28. Barefootontherocks
6:09 PM GMT on June 12, 2013
Hi bl,
Dang I actually thought I was gonna get something done today. Got a high risk across N IL and a "relatively high confidence" derecho setup modeled per the 1130 convective outlook. Supercells in the mix also.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IA...SWRN WI...NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121749Z - 121845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH LOCAL NWS WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES PRIOR TO 19Z. SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD
ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD AS DIABATIC HEATING REDUCES
MLCINH. TOWERING CU EVIDENT WEST/NW OF DES MOINES SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO NEAR 4000 J/KG
OVER EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
PREVALENT WITH 50-60 KNOTS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW-LEVEL /0-3
KM/ SRH FROM THE DAVENPORT VWP OF NEAR 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS THAT
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK WITH
TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...FURTHER
AUGMENTING LOW-LEVEL SRH.

TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A STRONG TORNADO DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION.
WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND/EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX TORNADO THREATS.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICES PRIOR TO 19Z.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 06/12/2013
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
27. beell
10:34 AM GMT on June 12, 2013


Probabilistic Wind (click image for all Outlook graphics)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO IND AND WRN
OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA EWD ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO VA/MD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT...ERN
ID...AND NRN WY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM IA INTO WV...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO
IA/MO/IL BY 00Z...AND WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THU. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN IA/NRN IL BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI INTO LOWER MI DURING
THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING NWD ACROSS PA INTO THUR MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING FROM OH
SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER THUR MORNING.

TO THE W...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IA/WY/MT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING DAYTIME STORMS THERE.

...IA...IL AND SRN WI EARLY AFTERNOON INTO IND...OH...NRN KY AND FAR
SRN MI DURING THE EVENING...
MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND
VICINITY...WITH SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE WITH A
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO THE E. OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO
FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT E OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL. INITIALLY...SOME OF THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SUPERCELLS...AND A STRONG TORNADO COULD OCCUR. WITH TIME...AND
PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A
LARGE CLUSTER. INCREASING WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY A DERECHO CAPABLE OF
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION MAY
ALSO EXIST PERIODICALLY...INDICATING EITHER TORNADOES OR ENHANCED
SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN.

MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WILL BE FROM
NRN IL INTO NRN AND CNTRL IND AND INTO OH. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
GROWS LARGER THAN EXPECTED...OTHER AREAS COULD BE UNDER A GREATER
THREAT SUCH AS NRN KY...WV...AND WRN PA.

...SRN MI INTO OH...WV...WRN PA LATE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER IL AT THIS TIME...A BROAD
AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST NEAR A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN
LOWER MI INTO OH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WHICH WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.

...SRN IL AND IND INTO WRN KY DURING THE EVENING...
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EITHER NEAR THE FRONT OR
ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW...IS MOST LIKELY TO BE FROM SRN IL INTO WRN KY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS...AND PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER S AS IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE.

...VA INTO THE DELMARVA - AFTERNOON...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE
OH VALLEY SYSTEM...WITH STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONDITIONALLY BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REMAIN MAINLY NW OF THE AREA AS THE MAIN SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS OH
AND WRN PA. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REASSESS AS NEW DATA
INCLUDING SPECIAL SOUNDINGS BECOME AVAILABLE.

...MT...ERN ID...NRN WY...
DAYTIME HEATING...COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD OCCUR WITH SMALL BOWING CELLS. GIVEN BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND
FAVORABLE STORM MODE...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 06/12/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
26. beell
12:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2013
Lincoln, Illinois Radar



Unofficial Wednesday afternoon tornado risk.
West central Illinois?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
25. beell
3:04 AM GMT on June 11, 2013

click image for storm reports.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
24. beell
3:00 AM GMT on June 11, 2013
Hi, bf,
There was a well defined frontal boundary from far northeast TX toward San Angelo Sunday morning. Met up with the seabreeze front just north of me. Folks lucky enough to be at this happy meeting got some decent rain. Not much here.

Head Country sounds good. I followed the link looking for an angle but alas, the BBQ products are named after "Donovan Fred Head". Also known as "Uncle Bud". Not to be confused with "Uncle Dad". It is Oklahoma, right?

Looks like I can get it at most any Kroger store here on the east side of the county.

Should be some interesting weather over the Midwest tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE'ward propagating MCS sliding down the east side of the ridge towards the Ohio Valley. Long shot guess here. Will look again in the early AM.

Thanks, & G'nite.



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
23. Barefootontherocks
3:17 PM GMT on June 09, 2013
Hi bl,
That boundary heading to NE TX looked strangely strong on vis this morning. Of course, I tend to imagine things.

Love the simmering ridge. Would be grand with genuine Head Country original bbq sauce. Made in Ponca City, "winning hearts and championships since 1947."

I hope Levi doesn't get sunburned.

Have a good one. I go pull weeds.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
22. beell
1:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2013

11Z HRRR Composite Reflectivity-Valid 1PM CDT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY COULD BE A RAINY DAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A SOLID
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA. SCATTERED SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FURTHER WESTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE SOUTHEAST TEXAS FAVORABLY POSITIONED IN A DEEP TROF AXIS.
THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE PARTS OF OUR AREA A DECENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE AND
PLAN ON ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES ON THE MORNING UPDATE AS WE SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE. STILL EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TO SET
UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE
. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST NEAR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN CARRY MOSTLY TOKEN 10% POPS
OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED
WELL INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THESE READINGS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH MID JUNE RECORDS.
42
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
21. beell
1:09 AM GMT on June 09, 2013
Hiya, bf. How do you like your Barbecued Ridge? An early taste of Simmer after the weekend.

Levi's gonna melt.


06/08 18Z GFS 500mb heights-Valid Thursday


WPC Day 5 Max Temp Forescast-Valid Thursday, June 13th


WPC Max Temp Anomaly-Valid Thursday, June 13th
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
20. Barefootontherocks
4:35 PM GMT on June 08, 2013
Nice. OKC records to 1890. Thank you, bl.

"Lake Overholser is the city's oldest reservoir, built in 1919 to provide water to a treatment plant still operating at NW 6 and Pennsylvania Avenue.
"It's just off old Route 66 between Council Road and Morgan Road. A canal connects it to Lake Hefner.
"Size: 1,500 surface acres
Depth: 6 feet average, 13 feet deepest"


Maybe it takes a lake to stop an EF5. Lake Stanley Draper

Funny you should mention the ceiling fan. Like the truck that helps us along our roads in life, it behaves as a true friend would. Brings us comfort, familiar and steady.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
19. beell
11:38 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
Shush, shore, don't tick her off so early in the day.

And in other news,
HGX May Climate Summary
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
18. shoreacres
11:28 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
Good morning, all! We did get tiny, sleet-sized hail last night, for about a minute. Not much rain, but enough in the bucket to hold the African violets this week.

That's quite a graphic and link, beell. The information in the table's the most interesting. I'm amazed at the number of town names I recognize.

(bf - I thought of you when I got to #30 on the list. A draw doesn't necessarily contain water, but still...)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
17. beell
11:04 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
Morning, bf.
Always glad to see the ceiling fan spinning when I wake up each morning!

Nice little link for the history buff from NWS-Norman OK/Tornadoes in the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Area Since 1890.


Yukon has been fortunate. 149 recorded tornadoes in the study area.


Tracks of all recorded tornadoes occurring wholly or partly within the immediate Oklahoma City, Oklahoma area, 1890-Present. County boundaries and major highways are shown. The immediate Oklahoma City area, and other cities included in this study are outlined. Tornado paths shown that are completely outside the immediate Oklahoma City area are not included in the table or statistics for the OKC area tornadoes.

For those unfamiliar with the area, Yukon is at the far left center of the graphic. The tabs at the top of the linked page offer additional information.

RBFMFbf!
;-)


click image for storm reports.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
16. Barefootontherocks
3:37 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
How 'bout dem Spurs?
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
15. Barefootontherocks
3:36 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
What report? Sniffs the air. Oh. Now I get it. lmao
Glad you guys got some rain.

bl,
I really came back tonight to drop this here as a reminder to thank your truck every morning when it starts. Well, you know what I mean, appreciate the little things. I think you do. This just leaves me in awe. Complete and utter.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
14. ihave27windows
2:26 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
We had a nice couple of storms in Pasadena.....and we were happy to share Shore! =)
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14927
13. beell
1:23 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
My report, shore.

A non-event here-but nearby Dayton and Liberty had some fun. There was a gap in the line before it all merged. Yeah, that was me. In the gap.
:-)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
12. shoreacres
12:57 AM GMT on June 07, 2013
Ohhhh! We have rain, and the NWS is reporting tennis ball-sized hail in Seabrook. I think I'd best go see what that noise is...
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
11. beell
11:33 PM GMT on June 06, 2013


Cold front (North) and sea breeze boundary (South).


Hi, bf. Saw that pic on Doc's blog. It is nice to see a good link to it on this one!

I think it was that Gandhi dude who said: "There is more to life than increasing its speed."
:-)

Just right on the edge of it here, M. A few storms sorta working down (SW) the front to the north, so maybe everyone will get a taste of rain.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
10. shoreacres
11:26 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
Nice of Pasadena to share a little thunder with us! I can see rain, too - I've got my bucket ready in case it comes this way. ;)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
9. Barefootontherocks
11:13 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

(Add: Lookin' like wind all right.)


Thanks, 27.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
8. ihave27windows
10:50 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
I am happy to hear your family in Ok. is well. You and BF have been on my mind too much this season!

It's time for gentle rain in Ok too, BF =)
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14927
7. Barefootontherocks
10:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
Hi bl, (and all)
Hope you get some nice, kind, sweet t-storms.

What was it I used to say about Father Sky and Mother Earth?... Pretty amazing pitcher...

This one might be overshooting - a little..
(See also caption on that page.)

Hope you all have a good evening free from stress.
:)
:)
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18746
6. beell
10:32 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
No doubt it was the same, shore. It was grand-and a welome break from the fair weather cumulus.

Sea breeze boundary has made it past the upper reaches of the bay and getting in on the act. Only small problem would be the SE storm motion and still no real development to the NW (the ones that would/could track over Houston). SPC likes the propagation factor. Where the storms ride on their own outflow and don't have to follow the rules of the predominate average direction the winds are blowing from/to. So maybe?

Yeah. 2 EF 5's in 10 days. Both within a few miles (or less) of some folks I know well. Thankful.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...

VALID 062157Z - 070000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE HOUSTON
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD OVER SERN
TX WITH LEADING BOW NOW INTO TYLER COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES IT IS OVER EARLIER OUTFLOW...WHICH MAY HELP TO TEMPER THE
THREAT SOMEWHAT BUT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS WERE REDEVELOPING JUST TO THE SW...NEAR THE
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION. HERE...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS
DEVELOPED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 F AND DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F.
GIVEN THE NW/SE ORIENTATION TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE IN A SSEWD DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BEAUMONT AREAS WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS LINEAR.

..JEWELL.. 06/06/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
5. shoreacres
9:32 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
I swear to goodness I saw that same cloud. For a while it looked like a perfect dome, smooth and pretty. It was huge, too, but it's the only decent cloud I've seen all day.

I don't know - it just doesn't feel like a good rain. All afternoon it's been getting hotter but less humid. And there's nothing building around here now.

I was glad to see your note at bf's about your mom and family. I think we can forego any of that sort of weather excitement for a while. ;)

Wel, time to cool off and think some thunderstormy thoughts.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
4. beell
9:21 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
Hey, 27,

I was more excited a while ago. But it sure was sweet to see a great big o' thunderstorm going up over the Sabine river. But then...it hit the cap. Top of the cell was as flat as a pancake...but then, some additional convective development broke through just a bit. That "overshooting tops" thing. Cap is stronger over Houston and we won't have the peak daytime heating for much longer.

And the boyz are not helping our hopes much either.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A LOT OF BOUNDARIES TO CONTEND WITH THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND OUTFLOWS/SEABREEZE
INTERACT IN THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY OVER SE TX. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND AS
WE MOVE INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BUT HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE
CURRENT WATCH CONFIG BASED ON ONGOING TRENDS.

Oh well, the clouds are pretty.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
3. ihave27windows
7:54 PM GMT on June 06, 2013
Good afternoon Mr. Beell!

Hope we can have a bit of excitement this evening with a few thunderstorms. Nothing severe, of course.

Last day of school today, so sleeping in tomorrow. I can stay up if necessary =)
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14927
2. beell
7:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2013

================================================= =====

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 283...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INCREASING OVER EAST CENTRAL TX NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING NW/SE ACROSS ERN TX AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EWD. ACTIVITY IS IN THE SRN PORTION OF A
VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD TOWARD NERN TX. STRONGER WNWLY WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE VORTICITY MAX ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...WEISS
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
1. beell
1:14 PM GMT on June 03, 2013
For 91L: Seems the surface trough and ex-Barbara-lower-tropospheric support is pretty much locked in place between the ridges in the models. From the tip of the Yucatan to SW Florida. Western gulf ridging appears to eventually suppress or nullify any monsoonal circulation in the Atlantic basin by mid-week. What ever it is would seem to continue on a track towards the NE along the surface trough.

A weak upper trough over the gulf should provide good divergence/support for showers and thunderstorms from the western tip of Cuba to the southern half of Florida.

And it's probably worth a mention that upper shortwave ridging ahead of this feature along with confluent flow/subsidence with the southern stream westerlies over the northern gulf may temper the rain totals for northern Floridians.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729

Viewing: 30 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About beell