Weather - May 22

By: beell , 12:59 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

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59. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:58 AM GMT on June 03, 2013
beell has created a new entry.
58. beell
11:53 AM GMT on May 31, 2013

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Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
57. Barefootontherocks
3:09 PM GMT on May 30, 2013
Good morning, bl.
Understood. Kinda weather-weary myself but I must keep an eye on things. Doldrums would be nice weather today. Have a good one. Don't work too hard.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
56. beell
10:51 AM GMT on May 30, 2013
Morning, bf,

I need a weather break, lol. Time, energy, and inclination required (i'm slow!) to string together anything worth a hoot regarding the weather is in short supply. Gotta another full schedule today. It will pass, it always does. See ya on the other side of the doldrums!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
55. Barefootontherocks
6:19 AM GMT on May 30, 2013
Arwrite. Gnite.
... UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAY...GEOMETRY
OF FLOW RELATED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL RENDER
DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO
DRYLINE...INDICATING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORM CHARACTER
AND SUPERCELL MODE.

HOWEVER...SOME CAVEATS ARE EVIDENT THAT MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL
TO INTRODUCE MDT-RISK PROBABILITIES YET...AND WHICH ALSO CAST GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ON SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N OVER MO VALLEY..NRN PLAINS
AND CORN BELT. THESE INCLUDE...

... AS SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES GET BETTER RESOLVED TODAY...NARROW
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO AND/OR LARGER-HAIL PROBABILITIES MAY
BECOME NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OK AND KS.

..EDWARDS/BUNTING.. 05/30/2013

Clickable for full text and graphics...

Why does that say 1200? should be 0600? Hope it links right. Good night.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
54. Barefootontherocks
5:30 AM GMT on May 30, 2013
Good morning, bl.
Here's my early morning cop-out.

Sorry if I woke you up. I'm hungry. Would ya fix me a sandwich while I wait for the 0100 dose of reality? Thursday's been bugging me since it was Day 4. I don't know why except my initial impression from Monday is Thursday would outdo Wednesday. No reasonable reason. Just that. Nevermind. Maybe I'll just crawl in bed and pull the covers over my head.

And yes, I accept the assignment. I'll check the Missouri storm breaks. Later.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
53. Barefootontherocks
4:37 AM GMT on May 30, 2013
Pretty strange configuration on that So Plains radar at this hour. Guess this new one is the only watch left.


Related MCD. Click image for text.


Strange magic tonight. Two N-S lines moving NE and a line from N TX through Ardmore and Ada. High wind and power outages. A few drops of rain here is all. Been real windy since the lines went by.

Outflow, outflow
Come and go
Talking with Michelangelo
One down
Two to go
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
52. beell
12:50 AM GMT on May 30, 2013
Took a peek in this afternoon, 19. I remember checking the time stamp on the frame. I saw it at 21:08Z-and I thought...pretty good. Thanks for the verification!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
51. 1900hurricane
8:01 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
For comparison...



*EDIT: dang, that wasn't the non-updating image I thought it was...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
50. beell
3:37 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

12Z HRRR Composite reflectivity-Valid 3PM CDT
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
49. beell
2:47 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
The "ring of fire!"


click image for storm reports.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
48. beell
2:44 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Morning, bf,
Looking pretty gnarly. 995 mb surface low trying to consolidate along the KS/CO border. Dryline is still back in NM, just clipping the western end of the OK panhandle before joining the low. It should begin to advance east in the early afternoon hours. Cloud cover may retard its advance to a certain extent. Lazy synoptic warm front extending to the NE across the NW corner of KS. Approach of the trough should sharpen this boundary up as a cold front later today.

Hard to tell from the cloud cover, but there may already be one signifigant outflow boundary from SE KS extending to the NW.

Shear not forecast to be outrageous, but a respectable 40 knots. Much more and a high risk could be in the offing. Already a 40 knot southerly LLJ in place.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
47. Barefootontherocks
1:25 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Can we say negative tilt?

From 0800 day 1 convective outlook...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DODGE CITY... CHILDRESS AND LAWTON SHOW LOADED-GUN SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG... 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM.

Slight risk area extends from TexMex border to MN, WI. Also slight risk in NE US.
Please click image for complete 0800 Day 1 Convective Outlook text and graphics.


Tornado outlook as of 0800 cdt May 29, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
46. beell
12:06 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Morning, shore,
Gotta love Dulac...Years ago, in the back yard of our company quarters in Dulac I watched a local co-worker use an upside-down cardboard box propped up with a stick. A string tied to the stick. Old bread as bait.

Roasted grackle for lunch. Tasted like, um...er...grackle.

Humming along with you!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
45. beell
11:55 AM GMT on May 29, 2013
It's possible that the remains of Barbara, in combination with the tail of a front could provide the seed for a disturbance in the western gulf beginning next Monday. Provided there is at least something of a circulation left after Barbara crosses Mexico.

Wind shear over the BOC may be less than 30 knots. A little higher farther north.

All this timed with a trough over the southeast US to tap/pull the monsoonal moisture northeast. A longshot, maybe.



05/29 06Z GFS 850 mb Vorticity-Valid @ 120 hrs

GFS with an initial weak portrayal of an inverted trough over the western gulf.


05/29 03Z WPC Forecast Surface-Valid 12Z Monday

click any image to open in new window
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
44. shoreacres
11:24 AM GMT on May 29, 2013
Not only is there something for everybody, I ended up yesterday not with 2 out of 3, but 4 out of 3. I ended up with sanding, varnishing, rain and a tee shirt from the Bluewater Shrimp Company in Dulac! I "won" it by commenting on a blog - not for the quality of my comment, but as a result of a random number generator. It's my first participation trophy!

It's another pink morning, just right for humming along with your lyrics. ;)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
43. beell
1:03 PM GMT on May 28, 2013
Something for everybody.


click image for all Outlook graphics

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND
CNTRL HIGH PLNS NEWD INTO THE LWR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE...NEGATIVE-TILT GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL FURTHER
AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN NV CONTINUES ESE
INTO CO/NM...AND UPSTREAM E PACIFIC SPEED MAX REACHES THE ORE CST.
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...SATELLITE SHOWS A SERIES OF SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCES NOW EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO THE SRN RCKYS
THAT SHOULD SHEAR NEWD IN STRENGTHENING/BACKING MID/UPR-LVL FLOW
OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT. FARTHER E...HEIGHTS SHOULD
RISE OVER THE OH VLY/MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN
THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT MODERATE WSW FLOW TO PERSIST FROM THE MID MS
VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

AT THE SFC...KS LOW SHOULD RETREAT WWD INTO CO IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING OF UPSTREAM TROUGH.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIFFUSE STNRY/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE NWD AND NEWD INTO
SRN MI AND THE LWR GRT LKS IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
THE WARM/STNRY FRONT...A DRY LINE TRAILING S FROM THE KS/CO
LOW...AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE N OF THE LOW WILL SERVE TO FOCUS SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH TNGT.


...KS/LWR MO VLY TO MID MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
AN AREA OF VERY STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE AOA 3000
J/KG...WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING OVER CNTRL/ERN KS AND WRN MO
TODAY...ALONG AND S OF DIFFUSE FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

WHILE SFC LOW NOW IN KS WILL RETREAT WWD WITH TIME...EXPECT THAT
LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CONVERGENT TO SUPPORT
STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARIES BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...40+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR /LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ WILL PROMOTE STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...AND A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH
WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SIZABLE CLUSTER THAT EXTENDS THE SVR THREAT E ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF MO AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PARTS OF SE NEB/SRN IA AND
WRN IL INTO EARLY WED.

...CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW N AND NW OF KS/CO SFC LOW...STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR...AND COOL/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...OVER NE
CO...ERN WY...WRN NEB...AND SW SD THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT.

THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND
. THE MAIN FACTOR
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE SVR RISK
WILL BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LVL FLOW
.

...WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
SFC HEATING AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCTD STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM SW KS
THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SW TX LATER TODAY.
GIVEN EXPECTED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO
. ONE OR TWO SMALL
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY BY EVE...EXTENDING
THE RISK FOR SVR WEATHER /MAINLY INTO THE FORM OF DMGG WIND/...EWD
INTO CNTRL OK/S CNTRL KS.

...MIDWEST/LWR GRT LKS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST FILTERED SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF IND...LWR MI...AND NRN OH TODAY...E OF REMNANT MCS NOW
IN IL...AND INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NE ACROSS REGION.
THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIE BENEATH A BELT OF 40+ KT WSWLY LWR
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE THAT CROSSED KS
YESTERDAY. COUPLED WITH CONFLUENCE ALONG FRONT AND/OR ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM IL MCS...SETUP MAY YIELD BANDS OR SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SUSTAINED STORMS/WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
MORE THAN ONE WAVE OF SUCH
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A
CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT REACHING AS FAR E AS WRN NY/NW PA.

...MD/VA PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...
ERN END OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NEWD INTO MD LATER
TODAY
...USHERING IN WARMER...WLY LOW-LVL FLOW INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER MODEST /PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S F/ BUT SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS GIVEN FAIRLY
STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
AND/OR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTN
PULSE STORMS WITH A LOW CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL.


..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 05/28/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
42. beell
12:32 PM GMT on May 28, 2013
Morning, shore!
Have a great week, my friend.

...O beautiful for heroes proved
In liberating strife.
Who more than self their country loved
And mercy more than life!
America! America!
May God thy gold refine
Till all success be nobleness
And every gain divine!...

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
41. shoreacres
11:53 AM GMT on May 28, 2013
Morning to you, beell! Glad you had a good weekend. We had the most beautiful pink sunrise this morning - everything was pink. Water, buildings, boats, sky. It didn't rise to the level of "Red sky in morning, sailor take warning", but it surely was pretty.

The best part of the weekend: a long chat with my aunt last night. She confirmed much of what I learned about my uncle, and added this detail: when my dad moved to Rock Island for work, he didn't have a car. So, for six months he hitchhiked back home to see my mom - every weekend! Such a romantic (and such a different era).

Time to get back in the groove: sand, varnish & hope for some rain. As the old saying goes, two out of three ain't bad. ;)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
40. beell
10:46 AM GMT on May 28, 2013
Morning, bf,
A great, guilt-free weekend! Same for ya'll, I hope.

Although tracking tornadoes that cross state lines via the "Tornado History Project" is a bit cumbersome, a quick look did not show much/any in the way of storms that formed in NE KS and tracked into NW MO. Far from conclusive based on the time and effort spent this morning-but worthy of a deeper look. I nominate you!

Last night's transition to a hail/wind threat could also be explained by cell mergers and veering of the LLJ to SW-along with increasing boundary layer cooling. Yes, an early morning cop-out here, lol.

Thanks.
:)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
39. beell
10:13 AM GMT on May 28, 2013

click image for storm reports.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
38. Barefootontherocks
3:43 AM GMT on May 28, 2013

Click for full text.
...EXPECT CONTINUED TRANSITION TOWARD HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH TIME AS STORMS CROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

Velly interestink. Well, of course, to quote G. Carbin, "it's not the River," but here we do have (see also 21) a segment of kind of NW to SE river geography, more N oriented but not too unlike the Canadian between McClain and Cleveland counties. Probably another river/storm interface worth taking a look at.

Hope you had a great weekend, bl.

Shenandoah, Arlo Guthrie
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
37. beell
2:57 AM GMT on May 28, 2013
Tomorrow may be pretty much a carbon copy of today. Continued SW flow aloft keeps the lee trough, surface low and dryline in the same approximate positions. Synoptic warm front edges a bit farther north over the NE/SD border area. So unlike today, tomorrow's outflow boundaries may play a larger role.

Similar to today, another good opportunity for a couple tornadoes N and W of the surface low along the CO/KS to WY/NE border area as upslope flow and surface convergence pair up.

Mid-level SW flow may be just a bit weaker than today as the base of the mid level trough should be located over the inter-mountain west/central Rockies-with no solid signs of a preceding vort max or three moving out over the central plains. LLJ will also be from the SW-so perhaps less chance for discrete cells and a quicker changeover to a slow moving more linear MCS.

Maybe a slightly less active day than today with most of the activity from central OK, SE KS and across central(?) MO along the western edge of the "ring-of-fire" Southeast ridge.


click image for all Outlook graphics

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE OH
VALLEY...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A LEAD SHORT-WAVE EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE 4-CORNERS BY 29/00Z. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SFC LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENCOURAGE SFC LEE CYCLONE
OVER SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS
UPSTREAM IT APPEARS DRYLINE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO EXTREME SERN CO.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY IDENTIFIABLE DISTURBANCES
WILL AFFECT THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
...HOWEVER WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. WHILE
FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
FOR LATE SPRING...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER
OF 40KT ACROSS KS AND ROUGHLY 35KT INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
. THIS
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF
SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
SHOULD SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.
WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER DARK FROM
WRN OK INTO SWRN KS THESE STORMS SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS POTENTIAL CLUSTERING ALLOWS FOR COMPLEX OF STORMS
TO PROPAGATE TOWARD CNTRL KS.

FARTHER NORTH...ANOTHER REGION WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE SRN BLACK
HILLS.
HEATING WILL ALSO PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN THIS DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN ESELY UPSLOPE REGIME. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LESS THAN
REGIONS ACROSS KS IT APPEARS AN MCS COULD EASILY EVOLVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH TORNADO THREAT WILL LESSON CONSIDERABLY AS
DISCRETE STRUCTURES EVOLVE INTO MCS AFTER DARK.




...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...SRN GREAT LAKES...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE LOCATED OVER CNTRL IA AT 28/12Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NEWD INTO WI BY EVENING WITH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. VEERED LLJ
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE
OH VALLEY TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD ACROSS SRN WI/LOWER MI. SCT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH NWD LIFTING WARM
FRONT BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DEEPENS. MODEST WSWLY FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS. HAVE EXTENDED 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DOWNSTREAM
INTO WRN PA TO ACCOUNT FOR EWD EXPANSION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION DUE
TO DEEP WLY COMPONENT. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 05/27/2013
================================================= =====

The risk for Wednesday afternoon/evening could turn out to be very active along the dryline and ultimately covering the eastern half of KS coincident with the negative-tilt trough's arrival over the dryline, and the entire area beneath the exit region of a 50-60 knot upper jet. Throw in an advertised 50 knot southerly jet, a weaker cap and at least a Moderate risk for tornadoes may be on tap.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
36. beell
10:44 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013


click image for discussion
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
35. beell
9:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
YW, bf. Glad you're watching it. Thanks for the MCD.

The other side (west) of the surface low is also interesting. With the low level flow bending all the way around back to the south on the west side of the surface low and taking full advantage of the upslope terrain. Not unheard of, but definitely different than the usual.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
34. Barefootontherocks
8:59 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
"Well defined Outflow from the extreme SE cor of KS towards the NW...we could see a couple strong tornadoes along and either side of a line from Wichita to Hays, KS. Maybe"

Ha. You answered my outflow question before I could ask it. Thanks. Enjoy.

Ps.
Pretty sure the parrot lived to tell
the story of his ride
upon a supercell.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
33. Barefootontherocks
8:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

Click image for full text.

... STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE LOCATED NEAR AND N OF I-70 BETWEEN COLBY AND HAYS KS.
AN ENHANCED CU FIELD WAS LOCATED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST
PROBABLE...

Probably Jimmie Hendricks had a thing about butterflies.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
32. beell
8:43 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

GOES VIS @ 3:15PM CDT

Diffuse portion of dryline has made it past Dodge City and has pulled up mostly stationary near Pratt,KS, curving to the NW towards Hayes, KS. Still strongly capped east of the dryline. Well defined Outflow from the extreme SE cor of KS towards the NW and the original boundary to the N still evident. If/when the cap breaks late this afternoon and the dryline deepens, we could see a couple strong tornadoes along and either side of a line from Wichita to Hays, KS. Maybe.

Activity in Western Co still worth watching as it tracks into the path of a 30 knot LLJ and moisture N/NE of the surface low in in west central KS.


20Z Day 1 Outlook (click for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL KS
AND SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX TO SERN MT...EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

MINOR WWD ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CATEGORICAL MDT RISK
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70 ALONG THE NEB
BORDER. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS NRN KS IN
WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING UPSLOPE COMPONENT JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW OVER GOVE/LANE
COUNTIES. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER ERN CO AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NEB
WHERE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS FORCED SFC DEW
POINTS ABOVE 60F TO THE KS/CO BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...AN AGITATED CU
FIELD IS NOW PRESENT WEST OF HLC AND TSTMS COULD EVOLVE FROM THIS
THICKENING MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB INITIATION SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY NOT
COMMENCE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

...NERN WY...

ANOTHER REGION WHERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN APPLIED TO THE
OUTLOOK ARE ACROSS NERN WY. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED FROM SCNTRL MT...SWD ACROSS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SOON SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO FAVORABLY
MOIST BUT WEAK UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH STRONGEST SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW.. 05/27/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
30. beell
7:11 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

click image for discussion

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
29. beell
5:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

00Z NSSL 4 km WRF Forecast Sounding for Wichita, KS-Valid 7PM CDT

4 km WRF Forecast Soundings Page
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
28. beell
4:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

click image for full Outlook graphics

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF S-CNTRL/SERN NEB
AND N-CNTRL/NERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS
INTO OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS FROM THE NERN
PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT OF A TROUGH FROM
THE PACIFIC NW INTO SRN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...PHASED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SERN ID/WRN WY AND THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER-MS
VALLEY...SUPPRESSING THE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE NRN INTO
CNTRL PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE CYCLONE OVER NWRN KS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD
ALONG AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NRN KS.
A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE
LOWER-MO VALLEY INTO OZARKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ONGOING MCS.
FARTHER TO THE N AND E...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEWD
THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW A WARM FRONT NWD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT WHILE
PROGRESSING EWD. FINALLY...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TODAY ACROSS WRN
KS...THE OK/TX PNHDLS...AND WRN TX.

...CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000
J PER KG/
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES
ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB
MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13.5-14.5 G/KG. EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL
NEB...NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. HERE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE
SRH OF 200-300+ M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING.
INTENSE SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/
AND VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS
TONIGHT WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO.


ADDITIONAL...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED TERRAIN OVER ERN WY
AND THE NEB PNHDL SWD INTO NERN CO. HERE...THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...LOWER-MO/MID-MS VALLEYS INTO OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AN MCV APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AS OF MID MORNING OVER NERN MO...ON
THE NRN FLANK OF NOCTURNAL MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER-MO VALLEY.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD POOL
COUPLED WITH DEEPER-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT TSTM INTENSIFICATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN FLANK
OF THE SYSTEM. THE EWD MIGRATION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL ENHANCE THE
NEWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MID-MS
INTO OH VALLEYS...BENEATH AN EWD-ADVECTING EML...SUPPORTING MODERATE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MCS. GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG LOW
TO MIDLEVEL FLOW...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ACCELERATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING
EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE 12Z RAP SOUNDING
SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500-MB
LAYER...ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR.
SELY/ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS COLOCATED WITH SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
2000-3000 J/KG. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE WITH DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS BEING THE PRIMARY
MECHANISM DRIVING ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...STORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
27. beell
2:52 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
Possibly a slight shift south for the tornado risk if the boundary lined out in post 26 remains mostly stationary through the day.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

...THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR
WARM/STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN NEB ESE INTO THE MID MS VLY...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BY OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION

...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AFTN/EVE SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT WITH
ELONGATING KS SFC LOW. WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 30-40 SSWLY 850 MB WINDS VEERING TO
40 KT WSWLY FLOW AT 500 MB. COUPLED WITH MODEST BUT MOIST/BACKED
NEAR-SFC WINDS INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SETUP COULD YIELD A
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A SIZABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES /ONE OR TWO
POSSIBLY STRONG/ IN N CNTRL KS AND PERHAPS ADJACENT SRN NEB...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. A FEW SVR STORMS ALSO COULD FORM
FARTHER WNW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE...NE CO...AND NW KS...WHERE MOIST
ELY FLOW ON N SIDE OF KS LOW IMPINGES ON INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
26. beell
2:43 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

Convectively enhanced outflow boundary at 14Z


Current Visible
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
25. beell
2:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
Morning, bf,
Hmmm...Dead parrots and butterflies...I think that's a Hendrix tune.

Hello, shore,
We're good, here. Sunday redux!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
24. Barefootontherocks
12:16 AM GMT on May 27, 2013
Hi shore,
Thanks. Drowned a butterfly painting flower pots. Otherwise just avoiding the curses of Warlocks. Details at a previous comment.

Oh, Edwards aquifer, not lake.

Enjoy your eve.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
23. shoreacres
11:51 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
Hiya, bf - good to see you. Hope your weekend's going well. If I had more 3-day weekends I might get caught up with what I want to do. Or not.

I was amazed to see 1900s note about the Edwards aquifer. I expected a rise, but not that much. I decided early on we weren't going to get any of it, and we didn't.

Hiya to you, too, beell - hope you're having a fine weekend. Lots of folks just sitting around here tonight. One has a fishing pole next to him, but he doesn't seem inclined to bait the hook. Even the mallards are just sitting around in the grass, taking their ease. Holiday, I guess.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
22. Barefootontherocks
11:47 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
Hope you and your family are having a good holiday weekend. Bless the soldiers also.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
21. Barefootontherocks
11:41 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
blol, golf course auto.

Well, I thought the green parrot thing was interesting. Pretty sure it was legit. Had a AC 918 number.

Looking at Tornado Project maps, I have examined briefly the Canadian where it runs NW to SE forming the McClain/Cleveland County border. Few crossed, and most that did had a noticeably realigned track at the crossing. Bunch waited till Cleveland County to touch down. The Tornado Project's tracks are not presented real well. For instance they do not show the turn toward N for both 2011 EF4s. But they're good enough to point a researcher in the right direction. sometime I will take a look at where rivers, not just in OK, flow N to S (Add: and E to W. You know how they kind of crawl along the Red sometimes not crossing state borders.) That's what I meant by the angle on the dangle. Also wonder what strength tor has to be before the angle it approaches/leaves a body of water is affected - if it is affected.

Left these maps interactive in case anyone wants to look. Unable to get a good screen grab that shows the whole county border but they are zoomable maps.
McClain
Cleveland
McClain and Cleveland

Looks like Purcell has one in city limits since 1950.

I appreciate your appreciation, or at least your non-poohpoohing, of the unscientific Indian beliefs. Might should do a blog about these beliefs but I won't.

Be honest with you, my view of the I44 corridor may be colored by my meager few years observing storms. What seems a prevalent track could easily change and end up sparing Blanchard/Bridge Creek/Newcastle, Moore even, for the next two hundred years.

Live Presidential blooper today belonged on Saturday Night Live. He addressed Mary Fallin as Governor Failin'.

Other than that... (personal story edited out)

Good thing some God or other watches over me. That's all I can say.

I hear there's an internet threat going around against Moore, Oklahoma because seven public school students died. (Add: Correction. Apparently threats against school officials arose after a satirical site posted a story that a teacher had been fired for praying with students during the tornado.) Maybe I should blog about that, too, but I won't.

Pretty moving scene going on at the Memorial Service, Prayer Meeting on TV right now.

Bless the beasts and the children
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
20. Barefootontherocks
11:10 PM GMT on May 26, 2013

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262203Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL HAZARDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AS TSTMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE. MONITORING
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG
THE E-CNTRL CO/W-CNTRL KS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE ARCING S/SWWD
THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. HIGH-BASED CU HAS
GROWN IN THE PAST HOUR BOTH ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...THIS CU SHOULD DEEPEN
INTO TSTMS BY 23Z. WITH SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE KHHF
AND KCDS OBS...MAINTENANCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
E OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /SAMPLED
IN AMA VWP DATA/ ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN
ROCKIES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. GIVEN 35-40 DEG F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE
HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2013

You're question. MCV acting like an overland TS. lol. Sorry for the flooding, but in any case glad to hear about the rain causing lakes to rise.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552
19. beell
8:09 PM GMT on May 26, 2013


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262003Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB THIS
AFTN AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS SRN NEB AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH FROM JUST W OF OGA TO E OF
CDR. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID
60S...EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH. FURTHER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 DEG C/KM ALSO
EXIST IN THIS AREA. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND
LOCALLY NEAR 3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED PRIOR TO 22Z.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/26/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
18. beell
4:59 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
That's amazing. Now we can water the golf course with a clean conscience!



Sprinklers running at the Willow Springs Golf Course on the east side of San Antonio-Saturday, May 25th.

Image Credit:Laura Molberg Whitley

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
17. 1900hurricane
4:36 PM GMT on May 26, 2013
Yesterday's rains have actually raised the Edwards Aquifer by over ten feet!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
16. beell
3:43 AM GMT on May 26, 2013
WhooWhee, can't blame 'em. We all kinda' got spanked with this one. How much credit you give to the MCV or the shortwave? So much for rain cooled air to stabilize things!



Nice little shear axis at 500mb from the RAP archives. Valid at 2AM Saturday morning.



Which may have begat a narrow axis of speed shear and convergence at 700mb.

Shear axis looks like it will slide on up toward NE TX and some ridging should ease in from the west so maybe they will be ok.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
15. 1900hurricane
2:23 AM GMT on May 26, 2013
EWX is being quite cautious for tonight after this morning's event.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS TEMPORARILY ABATED FOR MOST AREAS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED EAST. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS EVENING. A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL POSSIBLE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...POOLED MOISTURE AND HEATING TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS SW OF SAN ANTONIO. WE
CURRENTLY THINK THIS COULD BE A BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON ROUND OF RAIN
THAT SHOULD BE SEPARATE FROM THE SHORTWAVE INDUCED ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT. THE EFFECTS OF THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE SEEMS POORLY HANDLED BY MOST OF THE MODELS GIVEN THE
VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...SO WILL FACTOR IN SOME
SLOWER DEPARTURE FROM OUR COUNTIES AS THE CONVECTION TAPS INTO A
BROADER MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THUS THERE REMAINS AN ISOLATED
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF WARM CORE RAINS...BUT THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY EAST OF I-35. STILL...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A 4 INCH RAIN IN
ONE HOUR...WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING WATCH AREA THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTRA SENSITIVE SOILS AND SWOLLEN
STREAMS. THIS FORECAST MAY APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER TO
WHAT IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS...BUT RECOLLECTIONS OF HOW MODELS
HANDLED EARLIER WARM SEASON SHEAR AXIS-BASED PATTERN SUCH AS THE
JULY 2002 PATTERNS...WOULD SUGGEST THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO
IMPROVE STABILITY.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
14. beell
2:58 PM GMT on May 25, 2013
Good call, shore. Driving anywhere in or near San Antonio may not have been much fun this morning. FF Warnings from S to N

All in all, this has been a good system for the Hill Country and the Lakes.

Lower Colorado River Authority Hydrologic Data
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
13. shoreacres
2:20 PM GMT on May 25, 2013
More proof that NWSNorman is a classy operation - Twitter's full of their thank-you notes this morning. They don't seem to be forgetting anyone, from Reed Timmer and KFOR to the amateur radio operators to - well, all sorts of people, including some who aren't "names". It's a nice gesture.

I surely am glad I decided against driving over to Kerrville for the Arts and Crafts Festival this morning. ;)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
12. beell
2:17 PM GMT on May 25, 2013
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY /DAY 4/ IN SHOWING
STRONG SWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE
MIDWEST...SUPPORTING AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. MODELS DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY BY WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CNTRL U.S. THE 00Z/25 GFS SHOWS A
LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION VS. THE 00Z/25 ECMWF EXHIBITING A MORE
MERIDIONAL/HIGHER AMPLITUDE SCENARIO AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL STATES. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS PROBABLE AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NWRN CONUS BY
MID-LATE WEEK...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IS NOTED IN THE ECMWF/GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EVOLUTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE FEATURES.
AS A RESULT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FROM WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND PRECLUDES THE HIGHLIGHT OF POSSIBLE 30 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITY AREAS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS
AND PRIOR DAY/S STORM ACTIVITY
EXERTING INFLUENCE ON SUBSEQUENT DAY/S...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASED RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE FOR PARTS
OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON TUESDAY /DAY 4/...OVER A LARGER PORTION
OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ AND THEN POSSIBLY IN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY /DAY 6/.


..SMITH.. 05/25/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
11. beell
4:12 AM GMT on May 25, 2013


NWS Norman OK - KTLX Radar Timeline, May 20th 2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
10. beell
11:28 AM GMT on May 24, 2013
Trajectory around the big surface high centered over the Great Lakes and the remains of the MCS over S TX may impede quality moisture return to a certain extent towards NW KS. Good upslope flow may allow enough lift for storms to root at the surface. Slightly better chances for a tornado or three over the SLGT risk area than yesterday.


12Z Day 1 Outlook (click image for complete Outlook graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND
NWRN KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCKING
REGIME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES. GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS REGIME
WILL OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S.
UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY EXITS THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG A 50 KT SLY LLJ. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVERLAP THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN
KS AND WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION
WILL RESIDE JUST SE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE
. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS
BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELLS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

...SRN THROUGH SERN TX...

SWD PROPAGATING MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING 12Z FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME
INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WING GUSTS AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 05/24/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
9. Barefootontherocks
6:22 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Vis about noon. I'll go with poppage 50 S of Childress for a thousand, Alex.



WAA this morning was hidin' behind door number 3, Bob. Storms initiated in kind of a line, moved east. Microburst and moved south, causing wind damage Mustang>>>Blanchard/ Newcastle. Ton of rain and T&L here but the "windy" cell behaved as it passed to the west, then developed an "inflow notch," whatever that is, a little rotation?, and covered the ground down at Sulphur with large hail. At least as reported by channel 9.
:)

Intriguing storm travel this morning. Wonder what Levi thought of it.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18552

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