Weather-March 24

By: beell , 3:52 PM GMT on March 24, 2013

Share this Blog
0
+

College of DuPage-Severe Weather Warnings

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
mouse-over for product title, click for full product






NWS Regional Radar
click sector for NWS Regional Radar Page, click area of interest for nearest NWS WFO Doppler Radar


UNISYS Water Vapor / Enhanced Infrared
(click for full image)


SPC Current Mesoanalysis and Short Range Ensemble Forecast Pages
(click graphic for main pages)

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 174 - 124

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

174. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:27 PM GMT on May 17, 2013
beell has created a new entry.
173. beell
12:52 AM GMT on May 17, 2013
Hi, shore, The big strong ones are a terror. The only time this fascination with weather might pay off-I'd like to think I would know when to run and when to hide-even though running is not supposed to be a good idea.

Wow, bf, Pretty racy lyrics for the CB show. Learn a new song every day.

No wine for me. Makes me sleepy. Plain 'ole margarita on the rocks works. No slushy, no goofy looking glass with a cactus handle that tips over too easy.

Aw, Texas say "Thanks", doggie.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
172. beell
12:33 AM GMT on May 17, 2013
That was a mess, 19. Some observations that may or not be factors. The cold mid-level low along with its 50 knots of mid-level shear, DP's in excess of 68° and maybe a meso-boundary in place. Certainly does not change what happened.


GOES Vis 05/15 2PM CDT

Earlier line of convection that may have formed on a boundary curving up into OK or this early convection left a boundary, Note the slight SE component on the east side of the red dashed lines and more southwesterly on the west side. It appeears the supercells formed on this boundary later in the afternoon-(see below). Could of been the dryline but looks like it was too far west at the time.


RAP Sfc Obs w/Radar Overlay valid 05/15 6PM CDT


GOES Vis 05/15 6PM CDT


RAP Surface Obs showing somewhat narrow plume of 68-70° dp's west of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex. Valid 6PM CDT

Ft. Worth Sounding at 7PM CDT. About -15° C at 500mb. 700-500mb lapse rates around 8.1° C.
Worth looking at the veering winds and speeds in the 0-1km and 0-3km layers. Pretty decent low level helicity/shear in spite of what appears to be almost marginal wind speeds. And the RAP with bulls-eye of 50knots of 0-6km shear just west of DFW at 8PM. Most of that associated with flow moving around the south side of the closed low. The sounding not really showing that.
72249 FWD Ft Worth Sounding Text at 00Z 16 May 2013

Still, who'da thought a reported mile wide EF4 or 5?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
171. 1900hurricane
3:40 PM GMT on May 16, 2013
The Granbury tornado has been given a preliminary rating of EF4 by FWD. If it gets upgraded to EF5, I think it'll be the first F5/EF5 in Texas since Jarrel.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
170. 1900hurricane
3:17 PM GMT on May 16, 2013
Looks like some good severe weather days down the road.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
169. aquak9
3:07 PM GMT on May 16, 2013
(hold Texas friends' hands, gently)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25504
168. Barefootontherocks
3:01 PM GMT on May 16, 2013
Have Some Madeira, M'dear
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17479
167. shoreacres
12:19 PM GMT on May 16, 2013
Well, I certainly was surprised by all that. I'd stopped by the radar around sunset to see if the bats were back at Bracken cave (they are). I noticed the scattered cells & wondered if they were going to hold together or develop. As we all know, they did.

I still haven't read any news reports. I know there were fatalities, but I don't know the extent of the damage. Time to go have a look.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
166. beell
11:22 AM GMT on May 16, 2013
Hiya, bf.
Thanks for the Storm Reports. I'm sure nobody is kicking themselves harder than the folks at the SPC today. Hindsight works well, and the lift and lapse rates provided by a stronger and slower closed low over the area may have been partly to blame.

Friday and Saturday may not be too bad for eastern OK-but as the LLJ increases into the evening hours it could get worse.

I expect the dryline along with a fairly well-formed surface trough to get VERY active from ND down into north western OK. Strong surface heating and at least slightly cooler mid-level temps should erode the cap farther south than indicated by today's day 3.

Shear is not overly strong and should be well balanced with instability to allow strong, discrete supercells.

May see ya around the blogs this weekend.

Later, 'm deer!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
165. beell
11:10 AM GMT on May 16, 2013

click image for all Day 3 Outlook graphics

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS REGINO SWD
INTO PARTS OF KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE U.S. IS
FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ADVANCES EWD AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A
TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME INTO
THE PLAINS...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO
FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ATTEMPT TO ERODE A VERY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODERATE CAPE
DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE CAP...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HIGH
PLAINS VICINITY...THOUGH WEAKER CAPE IN THIS PART OF THE AREA
SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

HOWEVER...AS SURFACE TROUGHING SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS WITH TIME
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PERSISTS...EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING -- PARTICULARLY
FROM SRN ND SWD ACROSS SD. WHILE SSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL
LIMIT OVERALL SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE...PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY NEAR AND NE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO EXIST OVER SD.


THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN PLAINS...
A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND SWD ACROSS WRN OK
AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX E OF THE S PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE THE CAP CAN
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ATOP THE DRYLINE SUGGESTING LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. THE
DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER COULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE
STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS IN
QUESTION ATTM...AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW /5%/ SEVERE
PROBABILITY ATTM. A STORM OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT
EXPECT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CAP DURING THE EVENING TO RESULT IN A
SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 05/16/2013



WPC 12Z Surface boundaries-Valid Saturday, 05/18




DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BROAD/GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS DAYS 4-5 /SUN. 5-19 AND
MON. 5-20/ AND POSSIBLY INTO DAY 6. HOWEVER...RATHER PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF SHORT-WAVE FEATURES CASTS
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS OF THE UPCOMING SCENARIO.

IN GENERAL...THE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD IN A SOMEWHAT PIECEMEAL FASHION.
THE INITIAL/ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE SHOULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO OCCUR ALONG A ROUGHLY N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY TO ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH LIKELY DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...A SECOND SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS AMONGST THE
VARIOUS MODELS...AND CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE
INFLUENCED THE SURFACE PATTERN SUBSTANTIALLY -- BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS YIELDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
FORECAST. STILL...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND EMERGENCE OF
THIS SECOND/STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGESTS THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES AS AFTERNOON STORMS
ERUPT ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND INTO PARTS OF KS/OK/N
TX AND POSSIBLY NWRN AR.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...WHICH
-- COMBINED WITH THE TWO PRIOR DAYS OF WHAT WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD CENTRAL U.S. CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER -- CASTS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST SUCH THAT NO AREAL DELINEATION OF
THREAT WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM BEYOND DAY 5. STILL...TUESDAY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REQUIRE RE-EXAMINATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS AMPLE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EXIST.

..GOSS.. 05/16/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
164. Barefootontherocks
3:46 AM GMT on May 16, 2013
Clickable
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17479
163. Barefootontherocks
12:56 PM GMT on May 15, 2013
Kid would pick this weekend for trail ridin' over in Belle Starr country.

Good morning, bl (and bl-ites).
Have a good one.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17479
162. beell
11:16 AM GMT on May 15, 2013


12Z WPC Forecast surface boundaries and warm sector-Saturday, Sunday, Monday (left to right)
(click for full image)





DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A SEVERAL DAY EPISODE OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING DAY 4 /SAT. 5-18/...AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 /MON. 5-20/.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEGINS AFFECTING THE PLAINS DAY 4. THE TROUGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO ENTER THE PLAINS DAY 5...AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW DAY 6 AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROTATES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS.

AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE SYSTEM IS LIKEWISE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...LIKELY FOCUSING DAILY
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE
-- LIMITING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG SRN REACHES OF THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
PERMIT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW.

THE GREATEST THREAT DAY 4 WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD
INTO NRN KS
...AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION AND THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREATS DAY 4.

DAY 5...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS AGAIN FORECAST WHICH -- COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING FARTHER E...SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION SWD INTO KS/MO/OK
AND VICINITY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DAY 6 MAY BE THE DAY OF HIGHEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL.
..AS A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN AXIS OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE IA/IL AREA SWWD ACROSS MO INTO
PARTS OF KS/OK/AR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THREAT MAY CONTINUE DAY 7...A BIT FARTHER E THAN DAY 6...BUT MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND HINTS OF SOMEWHAT DECREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
EVIDENT ATTM. THUS...NO OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED BEYOND DAY 6
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
161. beell
10:52 AM GMT on May 14, 2013


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE ADVANCE OF
A WRN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES DAY 5 /SAT. 5-18/. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
OCCUR A BIT FARTHER N ON DAY 5 THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST -- I.E. FROM
NRN KS NWD INTO SD. CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION MAY BE
HINDERED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH SUPERCELLS SHOULD
INITIATE INVOF A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DAY
6 /SUN. 5-19/...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE -- FROM
IA SSWWD ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS AND INTO THE NWRN OK VICINITY. STORMS
-- POSSIBLY ONGOING IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS BEGIN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 AND
BEYOND....AND THUS WILL RESTRICT AREAL OUTLINE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO DAYS 5-6 ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/14/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
160. beell
11:05 AM GMT on May 13, 2013


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY
17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. STILL...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT.
5-18/
. WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...THE SLOWER ECMWF
MAINTAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 5. THUS...FOCUS THIS
FORECAST WILL BE ON DAY 6...WITH THE ZONE OF OVERLAP OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SHEAR LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO RISK.


ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY PERSIST -- THOUGH FARTHER E
-- FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY
...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCREASING AND WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DAY 6
INFLUENCING DAY 7 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WILL REFRAIN ATTM FROM ANY
AREAL ISSUANCE BEYOND DAY 6.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
159. beell
2:02 AM GMT on May 13, 2013
Evening, folks,

Good call on Thursday's rain train, 1900.

You know 1900 was enjoying himself, Aug. One of the finest feelings a human can experience-beginning 5 seconds before the gust front hits. He (and you) would probably agree.

Hiya, Sangria,
No love for the love bugs? I bet me and your Dad have had way more experience with dead love bugs than live ones. Tends to warp your view of the little critters.

Hi, shore,
I was semi-familiar with ability of certain aldehydes emitted by gasoline and diesel engines to trick love bugs into thinking they had found a nice little patch of decomposing plant matter and a place to lay some eggs. Pair that with the extra warmth provided by paved roads and my favorite line from "The Shawshank Redemption" is ready for corruption and provides a convenient end to this paragraph. "I'd like to think that the last thing that went through those lovebug's heads, other than that windshield..."

Certain oil/alcohol-based paints also act as a nectar attractant. Just never found much in the way of a rigorous, carefully controlled experiment as proof. Do they go for latex? If there are hundreds of thousands of love bugs drifting around aimlessly, it seems more than a few would bump into some wet paint-and accidentally stick.

The ratio of love bugs that accidentally stick to wet paint as opposed to intentionally sticking is not well-covered in the literature.

AT 1140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF SHOREACRES...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


The boyz are great, ain't they?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
158. shoreacres
5:00 PM GMT on May 10, 2013
Three hours early? Good for you! The morning rain's just about through here, but I did get a smile out of this:

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAMBERS...NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON
AND SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF SHOREACRES...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

Maybe I ought to go have a look.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
157. beell
3:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2013
Hi, folks-plus a Sangria!

Just buttoned up and sent out a project that began in mid-April. It is due tomorrow. I was 3hrs early. Radar is pretty. Life is good. Brain is tired. Will pick up the converstion tomorrow at some point.

A lil' later.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
156. 1900hurricane
10:08 PM GMT on May 09, 2013
A training situation may actually be starting to set up.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
155. shoreacres
10:00 PM GMT on May 09, 2013
Oh, my gosh. I didn't realize you didn't know about the love bugs and paint - or, more specifically, varnish. That's why I'm so aware of the things. Crack open a can of vanish and you'd think somebody just yelled "Open Bar!" Those things love the smell of varnish. They'll actually fly straight into the can.

That's not so bad. You can strain them out if you're pouring from the can. What's awful is trying to varnish when they're around. They sort of work a 9-5 schedule, so if you can varnish before they start flying or after they've decided to hang it up for the day, all's well. But if they're around, and fresh varnish is on a rail, they can't resist. You can have the most beautiful coat, turn around to put your brush away, and by the time you look again - there they are.

I always feel a little bad for them - I hate seeing them struggle in that gooey stuff. On the other hand, if I try and get them out of the fresh varnish, that makes even more of a mess. The best technique is to let the varnish dry. Then, you can break their little legs, toss the carcass and, if you're lucky, repair the spot rather than having to redo the whole piece.

Ain't I just the romantic? ;-)

Now, off to see what the weather's up to. The humidity started going up late this morning and it's pretty soupy. Something ought to be brewing.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
154. Sangria
9:43 PM GMT on May 09, 2013
Hiya Beell.....

Ya want to do a blog on love bugs? Let me know, I'll shoot dad an email....he'll be happy to provide his opinion (and desire to pesticide them all)!!!!

Gotta love the nature coast, of Florida!!!!
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
153. 1900hurricane
9:41 PM GMT on May 09, 2013
Back from New Braunfels just in time!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
152. StAugustineFL
9:35 PM GMT on May 09, 2013
1900 should be enjoying himself (static loop)

Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 728
151. beell
11:35 AM GMT on May 08, 2013

12Z Day 1 Outlook (click image for complete Outlook graphics)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO/KS/WRN
OK/NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE ERN U.S. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN INTACT AS IT MOVES
NNEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...THE WRN LOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED/MORE ELONGATED WITH TIME -- DEVOLVING INTO
SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM THE SWRN U.S.
ENEWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ERN
UPPER LOW. FARTHER W...A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW IS FORECAST TO
LINGER INVOF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/WRN OK/SWRN KS VICINITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM NUDGES EWD. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ENEWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS KS AND A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OK/WRN N TX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

...SERN CO/KS/OK/NW TX...
PERSISTENT SLY/SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON THE WRN
FRINGE OF AN ERN GULF HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LOW WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RETURN OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS.
WITH 50S TO NEAR 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARRIVING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AS WELL AS ACROSS SERN CO IN AN ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME N
OF THE LOW. AIDED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...EXPECT STORMS TO
ORGANIZE...AS MODEST /25 TO 35 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ATOP
BOUNDARY LAYER SLYS/SELYS RESULTING IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. ATTM...LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...AS FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /IN
EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES F
IN MOST AREAS/ AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED
. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM
THE VICINITY OF PANHANDLE LOW NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HINT
AT CLUSTERING OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

...PARTS OF NC AND ERN VA...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. SURROUNDING THE UPPER LOW...AS IT DRIFTS NNEWD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW AT MID
LEVELS FORECAST AROUND THE SRN/ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...POTENTIAL
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF NC/VA AND VICINITY. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ANTICIPATED -- CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AT BEST...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIKEWISE REMAIN
LIMITED. ATTM...WILL INCLUDE AN AREA OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY...AS
SOME HINTS THAT STORMS MAY LOOSELY ORGANIZE INTO BANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NC AND VA.

..GOSS.. 05/08/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
150. beell
11:23 AM GMT on May 08, 2013
Morning, shore,

Rain chances look pretty good. I don't think this one will cruise off the coast too quick. A modestly moving boundary would give us half an inch. Slower, 1.5" along the coast. A chance of some afternoon t-storms tomorrow and Friday. The Friday storms could be loud.

The funny synchronicity thing is-I briefly entertained the idea of doing on blog on love bugs this week and I'm sure we visited some of the same sites.

The most interesting fact I learned is love bugs may be attracted to wet paint. There are many photographic examples of love-stuck love bugs stuck to wet paint while adjacent areas that had not been recently painted were love bug free. Really? My enthusiasm for the subject waned at that point.

Then there was this random find; "To love is to join your happiness to the happiness of another".
Never quite heard it put like that. There is a pick-up line lurking in there somewhere...

Gotta run to be stylishly late this morning.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
149. shoreacres
12:52 AM GMT on May 08, 2013
Oh, gosh. Roy Rogers and a classic boat. Two of my favorites! Not a chance I'd ever set foot over there for the festivities, though. I get to see all the boats and cars before and after, minus the crowds and with no admission fee. Besides, who wants to spend the weekend at the office? ;)

I'm more than usually cheerful tonight. For one thing, there's rain forecast for the weekend, which always is a good thing.

On top of that, I found an email from the folks at Coursera, the online learning specialists, in my inbox tonight. They have four courses they'd like to recommend to me for the fall semester: (1) Internet History, Technology and Security, (2) Calculus: Single Variable, (3) Introduction to Finance, and (4) Introduction to Systematic Program Design.

That's flat funny. Clearly, they're not using Google-level algorithms over there to make their recommendations!

The third smile came as a result of swarms of love bugs today. I'd seen just a few pair, but today it was just like the good old days. What was most interesting was what I learned over on an A&M entymology page. The love bugs fly only when soils are well-saturated with moisture. That would explain their absence the past two years, and is an encouraging sign for this spring.

I never thought I'd be happy to see those critters again, but I was.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
148. beell
12:40 PM GMT on May 06, 2013
As far as I can tell, the first clear appearance of an easterly wave in the GFS model. A curiosity at this point-leaving the African coast in about 300 hrs. Not to say we won't actually see one sooner.


05/06 06Z GFS 700mb at 300hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
147. beell
3:44 AM GMT on May 01, 2013
I'll take all the credit, shore. I was exactly where that storm initiated near Pinehurst earlier this afternoon. Well after I left and headed east of course...

Your Keels and Wheels link got me off on a tangent. Looking at the "Yellow Jacket" boats made here in Texas in the 50's. An additional link led to a 26 minute episode of Roy Rogers on youtube. Roy chased and caught the crooks in a YJ boat. My 16 yr old daughter was not impressed with the acting, special effects, and lack of color.

And I see there's a varnishguy on the event calender-behave yourself if you go. No dressing up in disguise and asking funny questions.


Roy and Family
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
146. shoreacres
1:18 AM GMT on May 01, 2013
There's a beautiful, sunlit anvil from that complex up in Montomery just now. I can't imagine it will get down here, but it surely is fun to look at! NWSHou says it's dropping 2-3"/hr and has some nice winds. I should say - the top of the cloud looks like waves with blowing spume.

I see we have windchime warnings out there on the horizon, too. At least 1900's going to have a little bit of good weather for his birthday before the bottom falls out.

They started putting up all the tents for Keels and Wheels at Lakewood today. I'm afraid it's going to be a little rough around there on Friday - no one's more nervous than an antique car owner who's got his baby sitting on a lawn in a wind, risking who-knows-what blowing into it and scratching the paint!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
145. beell
12:27 PM GMT on April 30, 2013

0730Z Day 3 Outlook (click image for discussion and complete Outlook graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN TX THROUGH SERN STATES...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES...


MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF IN POST FRONTAL ZONE
AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. SFC FRONT WILL
OCCLUDE OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING
SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN TX WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF...REACHING THE FL
PENINSULA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN NLY WINDS OVER THE GULF
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WARM
SECTOR.


A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM PORTIONS
OF THE SERN STATES NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ATTENDING THE NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING POST FRONTAL
...VERTICAL
SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK. MOREOVER...THE
OCCLUSION PROCESS AND TREND TO NLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL LIMIT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INLAND.
COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
PERIOD.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGION IN S TX WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...BUT OVERALL
THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 04/30/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
144. beell
11:28 AM GMT on April 30, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA
AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR GULF WATERS ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE THESE COMPLEXES LOOK
TO STAY OUT OF OUR AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY TODAY IN OUR AREA. NOT REAL CONFIDENT AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THIS COULD OCCUR...BUT LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE DEVELOPMENT
WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE
TO EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS.
THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING... THEN WILL CARRY LOWER
POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT (WINDS
ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA) AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH...UNSEASONABLY AND NEAR
RECORD COOL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW)
. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. 42 &&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WITH 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FLOWS OVER THE WARMER WATER. WIND
SPEEDS WILL WARRANT AN SCA AND GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE AT
TIMES
. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10 FEET
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. TIDE LEVELS WILL BE RUNNING 1.5 TO 2.0
FEET BELOW NORMAL BY MID-DAY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS
. 44

&&

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
143. beell
10:49 AM GMT on April 30, 2013
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013

VALID 12Z FRI MAY 03 2013 - 12Z TUE MAY 07 2013

...MODEL PREFERENCES...

...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE AS MANY VARIED SOLUTIONS ON THE
HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES AS THERE
HAVE BEEN MODEL RUNS
. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW THE CLOSED LOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MANY MORE HAVE
SHOWN A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION THAT TAKES THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FELT
COMPELLED TO STAY WITH CONTINUITY AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLES AND TAKE IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN CANADA.
HOWEVER... THE ECMWF WAS QUICKEST OF THE REMAINING MODELS TO DO
JUST THAT WHILE THE UKMET/CANADIAN WERE SLOWER. OPTED TO SIDE WITH
THE SLOWER MODELS SINCE THE OVERARCHING TREND WITH THIS PATTERN
HAS BEEN SLOWER RATHER THAN QUICKER...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
142. Grothar
3:09 AM GMT on April 30, 2013
Quoting beell:
Evening, Gro. Enjoyed your vid and understand that being in unison is harder than it looks or sounds!
Thanks.


You're welcome
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23705
141. beell
3:06 AM GMT on April 30, 2013
Evening, Gro. Enjoyed your vid and understand that being in unison is harder than it looks or sounds!
Thanks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
140. beell
3:05 AM GMT on April 30, 2013
Hello, 1900,

At least our part of the deal is almost straight-forward. Dry-as-a-bone cold front blasts through on Thursday afternoon/night. Friday and Saturday morning temps at least to the low 40's. If the incipient cut-off takes a more southern route, we could get a little colder. Either way, a wind-chime/garbage can alert.

After the GFS made a few "conventional" runs with a cut-off heading towards the Great Lakes, it's back today with the southern route with the cut-off hung up over/near AR before finally entering the NC/SC coastal waters next Wednesday!!??. ECMWF lifts the low towards the GL. Southern route should allow a semi-stationary ESE/WNW boundary and a weak surface low supported by the southern stream vort to set up off the FL east coast on Saturday-extending towards the surface low under the cut-off

Something like this on the 700mb RH chart. The dry air/dry slot wrapping in from the west will be a factor on the rain totals. A little easier to visualize all this on the GFS 700mb RH loop.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/



This would be separate from the rain expected over the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley along the stalled or slow-moving N/S boundary directly associated with the cut-off beginning on Thursday. Eventually, we'd end up with a single boundary trying to lift N as the system exits the coast. Still looks "frontal" or "non-tropical" up to that point.

I'll bet on the ECMWF tonight with a conventional and more progressive solution. If that happens, all the above was a waste of silicon. The blocking ridge may give way and perhaps we can get back to Spring. I may make a different bet later.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
139. Grothar
11:10 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
That Swiss Guard video was great. Thanks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23705
138. 1900hurricane
10:55 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
It's too late in the year for this nonsense.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
137. beell
12:56 AM GMT on April 29, 2013
Evening, shore,

With about a 13 meter rise in sea level, no photoshop required. Just a rename. Buffalo Bayou becomes Buffalo Bay.

The skyline does look better without the encircling freeways.



geology.com-sea level rise
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
136. shoreacres
2:36 PM GMT on April 28, 2013
Check this out. I turned my back and the sea level rise came to Houston in a flash!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
135. beell
2:48 AM GMT on April 27, 2013
Ok, now I can sleep. Weak, saggy, baggy, shortwave will work.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
134. 1900hurricane
2:33 AM GMT on April 27, 2013
Indeed it does not. After looking at the vorticity charts provided by PSU as well as comparing them to the GFS outputs, it looks like the feature originates from the disorganized area of vorticity currently extending out west of California. It even manages to form its own closedish 500 mb circulation before the bowling ball drops into the picture on the the ECMWF's 12Z run.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
133. beell
2:11 AM GMT on April 27, 2013


Yes, Nurse.
:-)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
132. shoreacres
1:44 AM GMT on April 27, 2013
Humph. Say "pre-frontal" to me and my immediate response is "lobotomy".

I'll just tip-toe out and check back a little latter to see if we're going to get a strike or a gutter ball. ;-)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
131. beell
1:08 AM GMT on April 27, 2013
And it may well be. Just looking for the genesis explaination in the Euro. Does not appear to be tied to the bowling ball.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
130. 1900hurricane
12:59 AM GMT on April 27, 2013
Looks pre-frontal to me.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
129. beell
12:55 AM GMT on April 27, 2013
Today's ECMWF's look a little odd-with a weak surface low or inverted surface trough forming over the gulf on the frontal boundary (?) then traversing across FL. This feature seems to be well removed from the influence of the 500mb system located much farther north and well inland. The surface feature does make a brief appearance on the GFS 850mb vort plot over the central gulf.

GFS cuts off the mid-level low farther south before it begins to retrograde and allows an opportunity for a surface low to form off the east coast.

GFS not offering much of a tropical chance with the cold air sweeping in behind.


04/26 12Z GFS 850mb temps @ 168 hrs


04/26 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights, MSLP at 168 hrs.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1120 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

...TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
AND PROGRESSION LATE WEEK TOWARD THE ERN US SEEMS PROBLEMATIC DUE
TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING EMINATING FROM THE N ATLANTIC SO GUIDANCE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WRESTLE WITH PROGRESSION AND AMPLITIDE
SPECIFICS...WITH FORECAST SPREAD INCREASING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
DAYS 6/7 THU/NEXT FRI...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
128. beell
11:28 AM GMT on April 26, 2013
Morning, shore,
We certainly have suffered through our share of regurgitations from some of "The Weather Expert(s) type here at the WeatherUnderground. I have been guilty of my share. In fact, I have posted one below in response to 1900's entry here. I should get bonus points for regurgitating "expansive ridge", "full-latitude", "negative tilt", "cut-off", "retrograding", and "transition".

That said, I'll suffer this form of meteorological amusement over the dry, humorless, rhetoric-laced invectives of the self-appointed, righteous saviors of the planet's climate.

Hello, Mark,
I agree. It's still a little early yet but I look forward to your first MNS name of the Season, my friend.

Hi, 1900.
An unusual pattern setting up in the mid-range models. A strong and expansive ridge stretching across most of the far North Atlantic puts an extreme negative tilt on the full-latitude bowling ball trough. Enough to form a retrograding cut-off over the eastern US with a decidedly frontal and non-tropical surface low off the eastern US somewhere between the FL and NC coast during the cut-off transition.

A very uncommon pattern. We'll see if it morphs into something more conventional/progressive over subsequent runs.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
127. 1900hurricane
8:19 PM GMT on April 25, 2013
ECMWF shows the great bowling ball of doom on the forecast horizon.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
126. NavarreMark
6:16 PM GMT on April 25, 2013
Hello Beell. I find no clouds of interest at this time.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3823
125. shoreacres
6:04 PM GMT on April 25, 2013
Speaking of LMAO, here's a little amusement sent along by our friends at NWSNorman. It's really pretty good.

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
124. beell
1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2013
LMAO, 19.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303

Viewing: 174 - 124

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

Top of Page

About beell