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| Posted by: beell, 9:33 AM GMT on March 11, 2013 | +0 |
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Page: 1 — Blog Index
...FOR THE SECOND MONTH IN A ROW OF 2013 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AFFECTED THE AREA. ALL OF THE FIRST AND SECOND ORDER STATIONS
RECORDED DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1 AND 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TAKING
THESE IN ACCOUNT WITH THE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...ABNORMALLY DRY TO
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CDT MON MAR 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE RIDING UP INTO THE AREA ABOVE 8000FT WITH -RA/--RA
FALLING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER S/W IN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH NCTX EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TODAY AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE
SOUTHWEST THAT DIDN`T GET ITS SHARE OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS WEEK PULLING DOWN ANOTHER DRY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT LATE TUESDAY MAINTAINING THE NORTHEAST TO EAST LL FLOW. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE SUNDAY IN
COLORADO AND THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
WARM WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE BUT CAP SHOULD BE STOUT. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY RAIN-FREE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE-SUN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND CXO SHOULD FALL TO 33-32
DEGREES WITH MOST SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
45
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SE TX. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME E-NE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL REPLACE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AREAS SW OF HOUSTON FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WEATHER. RH VALUES
WILL FALL BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. 43
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 36 72 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 37 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 43 66 53 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT MON MAR 11 2013
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY/DAY 4 WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FLATTEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY/DAY 5
AND ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NCNTRL STATES SEWD TO THE EAST
COAST. ON SATURDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BUT KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED.
THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECWMF DEVELOPING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND THE GFS KEEPING A
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS. IF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THEN A SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/DAY 7 ALONG A CORRIDOR
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORM THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN STRONG DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING
THIS SCENARIO. FOR THIS REASON...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD CONCERNING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 03/11/2013
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
VALID 12Z MON MAR 11 2013 - 12Z WED MAR 13 2013
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK...
...SOAKING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION FROM A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MARCHING
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DURING
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE STORM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MOSTLY DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES. MEANWHILE...A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER...COOLER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET OUT IN THE WESTERN
U.S....WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SURROUNDING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT IN THE PACIFIC...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO SOAK
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RISING
TEMPERATURES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES AND EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKIES.
GERHARDT
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT MON MAR 11 2013
VALID 12Z MON MAR 11 2013 - 12Z THU MAR 14 2013
DAYS 1 TO 3...
...UPPER/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
THE DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTER... CURRENTLY OVER IA EARLY THIS
MORNING... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NEWD BUT FILL WHILE CROSSING
THE UPR GRT LAKES REGION ON MON BEFORE REACHING ERN CANADA ON
TUES. THE ROBUST GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT... WHICH
STREAMED THE HEALTHY DYNAMIC COOLING DEFORMATION ZONE OF HVY SNOW
ACROSS IA/SERN MN INTO WI ON SUN INTO MON... IS BEGINNING TO
CLEARLY BECOME DETACHED FROM THE STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DUE
TO THE TO AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT/INTRUSION. HVY SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAINLY IMPACT EXTREME NRN WI AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE
UP OF MI ON MON AND THEN TUES. THE LEFTOVER COMMA HEAD IS
ENCOMPASSING THE UP OF MI AND SHOULD PERSIST THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS
BEFORE MORE LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPS FOR THE REST OF
MON AND TUES AS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 4 AND 8 INCH HVY SNOW PROBS
EACH DAY.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
THE MODELS GENERALLY EVOLVE FROM A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT TO THE RIDGE
DE-AMPLIFYING AND ALLOWING A FLUX OF DEEP PAC FLOW TO POSSIBLY
IMPACT THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THE DEEP PAC
MOISTURE FEED HAS DEFINITELY TRENDED NORTH WITH THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 24 HRS AGO... THIS MEANS A FEW THINGS FROM
UPPER HEIGHTS AND SNOW-LEVELS NOT LOWERING AS MUCH. IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR HVY OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN WA CASCADES AND VERY NRN EXTENSION OF THE NRN
ROCKIES.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MUSHER
Hate to see all this warm, windy and dry. I've got jury duty the 25th. If I end up having to serve it wouldn't be bad to pair that up with some rain, but I'd rather not wait that long. As things stand, my preferences don't have much influence on the atmosphere, so we'll just have to cope.
A good day to you!
ADD: This one's for all the Mushers, former Mushers, would-be Mushers and general Musher-Lovers lurking around. ;)
2013 Iditarod Route and Checkpoint Map
adn.com
Just a few checkpoints left until the finish at Nome. Current standings here, courtesy of iditarod.com. And TWC is your official Iditarod Weather Center provider.
At some point in our past, present, and future, we have or will probably pull a load in some form or fashion.
Lead dogs steer the rest of the team and set the pace.
Swing dogs or point dogs are directly behind the leader...They swing the rest of the team behind them in turns or curves on the trail.
Team dogs are those between the wheelers and the swing dogs, and add power to the team.
Wheel dogs are those nearest the sled and musher, and a good wheeler must have a relatively calm temperament so as not to be startled by the sled moving just behind it. Strength, steadiness, and ability to help guide the sled around tight curves are qualities valued in "wheelers."
Image: Wikipedia
Of course, ole Grandpa Smith used to say; "If you ain't the lead dog, the view never changes..." (i'll skip the graphical example of "the view").
The nice thing about a weather site is that we can correlate just about any info or idea to the weather somewhere.
"Everyone talks about the weather but no one does anything about it".
An irrefutable truth for thousands of years.
Part of the controversy and skepticism regarding climate change stems from our utter disbelief that we just may be "doing something about it". By most accounts, a change for the worse.
Consideration and/or sudden realization that the weather is changing and mankind could have a hand in that change removes a bit of mystery and wonder from it all. Disbelief and denial result.
Maybe not, lol.
Yep, In his early years, Grandpa's outlook, opinions, and wisdom were earned by hours of deep study walking/running behind a variety of domestic animals. Dogs, oxen, mules, horses-and eventually, Grandma.
Mushing isn't just for the pros, of course. One of the bloggers I follow is a physician who lives with her husband on a houseboat in Yellow Knife. There's a set of wonderful Christmas photos here, including a couple of their dog pulling the tree home on a sled. It's quite a world up there, filled with things like Tandi's excitement about trying out her new sleeping bag, rated for -40. Her current post has video of their "ice road".
You really stopped me in my tracks with your comments about the role of human assumptions about weather in terms of the climate change debate. I think you're right, and I think there's an almost perfect analogy in human relationships. Beyond that, the other side of the coin you just flipped out there may be equally true.
Not enough time to think it through now, so I'll add to my comment tonight.
ADD: Glad I stopped by Doc Master's blog last night. I haven't thought of spirographs in ages - now, thanks to Rainy Daisy and the GFS polar view, I've got a new toy in my bookmarks. ;-)
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO COUPLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM KY INTO TN AND NRN AL WHERE
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ON
TUESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS DEVELOP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH THE MOIST SECTOR LOCATED FROM EAST TX EWD ACROSS LA.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM NE TX EWD INTO THE
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AT THIS POINT...ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOW-AMPLITUDE. FOR
THIS REASON...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF.
CONCERNING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LIFT WILL
SUPPORT AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.
The other side of the "what, exactly, is our role in climate change?" coin is that people who live with the fantasy that we're in control of everything necessarily believe that climate changes must be the result of human activity. Ergo: if we just find the correct means, we can reverse the trend. The thought that we can't control everything drives some people I know absolutely crazy.
But not me. When I landed between the dock and the bulkhead yesterday afternoon, it was enough to know I'd managed to hang on to my car keys.It was easy enough to get them up on the dock to safety - it took me just a little longer to figure out how to haul myself out. You know that avatar Aqua uses? The water doggie? 'Nuf said!
Have a nice weekend, bl and all here posted and accounted for.
1...
2...
3...
...Poof and Tallyho.
(comment modified)
I'm at a loss for words this morning so maybe a song for St. Patty's Day.
Great Big Sea is from Newfoundland but the Chieftains play on this cut and I think it was filmed in Ireland-close enough...
Have a great day.
:-)
But I need the snow accumulation loops! The forecasts for our snowstorm on Tuesday keep changing. I sure do miss Sully's blog, for none of the current blogs addresses upstate New York.
Re the GFS Snow Loop; Done!
;-)
Yeah, sully's a good one. It often takes a large amount of time and effort to crank out a winter blog in your part of the world. With the Atlantic nearby, mountains, weather systems approaching from the west and/or south, maybe, sometimes, it's easier to just watch it all from the front porch.
I'm still struggling with the term "upstate New York". Best definition I could find is the entire state-excluding NYC. I like that one.
NWS Albany, NY seems to have a good handle on it. A two-part system starting tomorrow afternoon/evening.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY. THIS DEVELOPING STORM WILL BE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS
MONTPELIER REPORTING SOME FLURRIES THIS PAST HOUR. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SUNDAY...A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY. A WET/HIGH
DENSITY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW POWER
OUTAGES AND SOME TREE DAMAGE POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...AS EVENT BECMS CLOSER. EARLY SNOW
TOTALS ARE 6 TO 12" VALLEYS AND 12 TO 20" IN THE MTNS BY WEDS
AFTN.
FIRST ON MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND MAINLY CLR SKIES IN THE MORNING
WITH MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ARRIVING AHEAD OF SNOWSTORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE 20S MTNS TO 30S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H ENERGY ACRS THE NW CONUS...ALONG WITH A
VERY STRONG 25H JET. THIS ENERGY WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND DEVELOPING DEEP NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPS SFC LOW PRES NEAR
DELMARVA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND
TRACK/INTERACTION OF THIS S/W FEATURE...IS CRITICAL FOR WHEN SFC LOW
PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. GFS/ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW MUCH DEEPER MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...WHILE NAM12 IS MUCH
WEAKER. WL USE THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM BLEND...FOR THIS PACKAGE AND
CONT WITH PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS FCST WITH 100 PERCENT POPS AND
GREATER QPF/SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
FEEL MOISTURE/QPF WL COME IN TWO SURGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO DIFFERENT FORCING FEATURES. FIRST
FEATURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW TO MID
LVL WAA AND GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH. IN ADDITION...FALLING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING TROF AND GOOD ULVL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
WITH 25H JET WL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER LIFT. I WOULD EXPECT A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW TO LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA ON MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION WL BE LIKELY LATE TUES AFTN INTO WEDS WITH 2ND
FEATURE...AS COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER.
SOME SE SHADOWING WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES/NEK AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN DACKS...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW 2500 FEET JET OF 45
TO 55 KNOTS...WITH INITIAL BAND OF WAA SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SE
WINDS TO 40 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE WESTERN SLOPES. THIS WL HELP TO
ENHANCE LIFT/QPF ON SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREENS/DACKS.
INTERESTING TO SEE THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING SIGNATURE ON THE 1000MB
TEMPS ACRS THE NEK/WESTERN DACKS...WHERE VALUES REACH 2.5C ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING AS COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER. THIS BL
WARMING AND SE DOWNSLOPE FLW...WL LIMIT QPF/SNOWFALL ACRS THESE
REGIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUES. HOWEVER...AS DEEP CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS FROM S/W ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROF BASE AND DUAL 25H JET
COUPLET...EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TO INCREASE
AGAIN AFT 18Z TUES. THE PROGGED SFC LOW PRES TRACK FROM CAPE COD
CANAL TO THE GULF OF MAINE IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF THE FA...INCLUDING THE NEK...WITH TOTALS
APPROACHING 10 INCHES BY WEDS ACRS THE CPV/NEK AND 18 INCHES IN
THE MTNS...LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS. SNOW RATIOS
WL BE HIGHER AT NIGHT 15 TO 1...AND LESS DURING THE DAY...DUE TO
BL WARMING FROM MARCH SUN ANGLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER AROUND
5KFT ACRS SOUTHERN VT WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 0C...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME SLEET/EVEN RAIN MIXED IN NEAR RUTLAND/VSF AND
ACRS THE WESTERN DACKS FROM GOUVERNEUR TO POTSDAM.
FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE STORM...THE FCST KEY WL BE HOW QUICKLY AND
WHERE SECONDARY SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE COAST...AND HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION TO ADVECT
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA. GEM SHOWS 984MB LOW PRES
NEAR WORCESTER MA AT 00Z WEDS...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER
LVL TROF AXIS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 993MB...AND NAM12 ONLY A 1000MB
WITH MUCH LESS LIFT/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SHOW RAPID
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA ON TUES
AFTN/EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UVVS. SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO
WATCH THE RADAR FILL IN AND IR SATELLITE WITH COOLING CLOUD
TOPS...AS SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES...AS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS.
STAY TUNED. TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS TO L30S
VALLEYS...MAYBE M30S SE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SUNDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY COASTAL
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM CAPE COD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT
AND RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
OVER THE AREA. COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR EAST WILL DECREASE AND THEN WE WILL BE UNDER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA...THUS THE GOING FORECAST OF THE SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAKES GOOD SENSE AND WILL KEEP THIS IDEA
GOING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE FAR
ENOUGH EAST ON SATURDAY TO END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
I have read the NWS discussion you posted, but I struggle with understanding it. I keep learning little bits more, but it's a slow process! The short version forecast for Tuesday merely says "80% chance of snow; high of 34F". No wonder so many people get caught off guard when we get real winter weather. I think many people are relying on their cell phone synopsis.
I do enjoy your weather discussions, even though usually they are about your neck of the woods.
Thanks again!
When do you adopt your seasonal persona?
NumberWise - if you haven't, you might want to poke around coolwx.com, where beell found those graphics. I didn't know about the site. It seems more intuitive than some others I've tried to use. I even found my little corner of the world. No snow for us!
According to the English book of Common Prayer, "Easter Day is the first Sunday after the full moon which happens upon, or next after the 21st day of March; and if the full moon happens upon a Sunday, Easter Day is the Sunday after."
Simple as that.
And an annual tip o' the hat to shore for fixing up the rabbit for Easter. With Easter on the 31st, I suppose the 24th would be just right.
And one for Numberwise:
click to open in new window
This should be where the a surface trough ahead of the cold front and the western boundary of cold air pinned against the eastern side of the Appalachians come together to provide a low level focus. Also perhaps one of the last places of the day where there is something other than a veered wind profile. Both the NAM and GFS have consistently shown a narrow, focused LLJ AOA 50 knots near here-a little to the north however.
03/17 18Z GFS Surface Theta-e, valid tomorrow afternoon, showing the edge of the wedge along the TN/NC border
WPC Surface Forecast valid tomorrow evening showing essentially the same thing as above.
Farther southwest, along the front, across AL, lapse rates still look very good. Large hail and damaging winds may be a widespread issue. Farther SW, across LA, Hail still an issue but as we get farther away from the main storm system, maybe a slightly less severe wind threat.
Even farther S and SW along the front...maybe an issue with a cap.
Unofficial Tornado Risk Map-Valid Monday, 03/18, 21Z
St. Patrick, meet St. Arnold
May the strength of three be in your journey.
(Irish toast)
Hi, Numberwise. Thank shore for having the presence of mind to provide the link!
Hello Shore, Hello Beell, just stumbled onto your site Beell. I was out in the greater Houston Area 2 weeks ago, oohing and ahhing my wife's newest one month old Grandson in Spring. We spent a very nice weekend there.
I tried some of that St Arnolds at the Baker St Pub by the Woodlands Mall. That is a good brew, I might have to head back for some more. The food was good also.
12Z Day 1 Probabilistic Tornado (click for all Outlook graphics)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND TN
SWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS A TROUGH CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS EWD/NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF THE LOWER OH VALLEY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NNEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A
SECOND/MORE NRN LOW AND RESULTING IN A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOWER OH
VALLEY LOW DEVELOPS NNEWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIANS...AND APPROACH
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST REGION.
...ERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE RISK AREA THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...AFFECTING TO
SOME DEGREE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST MODEST HEATING AND DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE AREA...MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF
1000 TO 2000 J/KG SEEMS LIKELY AT LEAST LOCALLY. ALONG WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE
ERN KY VICINITY SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION/MODE...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXHIBITING WEAK
VEERING/INCREASING MAGNITUDE WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO
SMALL-SCALE LINES/BANDS...A FEW MORE CELLULAR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SUPERCELLS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WHILE TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO SOMEWHAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR EXPECTED ATTM...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES -- INCLUDING THE RETREATING DAMMING FRONT
ACROSS THE NRN GA/WRN SC REGION -- COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY -- PARTICULARLY WITH
NWD EXTENT WHERE LESS AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE.
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 03/18/2013
Been stumbling around here myself. Feel free to do the same anytime. Good to hear from an Escatapian.
Congratulations on a brand new baby and a Texas beer!
I bet you and I were less than 5 miles from each other a couple weeks ago while you were in the Woodlands. I thought I smelled something funny!
;-)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR KSPS AND A COLD
FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CLOSER TO HOME...
DENSE SEA FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
GALVESTON BAY. AS THE FOG ADVECTS INLAND...IT TRANSITIONS TO A LOW
STRATUS DECK. WHEN OR IF THESE CLOUDS ERODE WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY. ALL THE MODELS (EXCEPT THE HI-RES NMM)
SUGGEST THAT W-SW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE BETWEEN 15-17Z.
THE HI-RES MODEL KEEPS CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
COASTAL ZONES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. THE MORNING WILL START
OUT WARM SO IT WON`T TAKE MUCH SUN TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 80S. TO
FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 19-21Z AND TEMPS WILL STABILIZE OR
POSSIBLY FALL OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTN.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AND FAIRLY QUIET. PW VALUES REMAIN
LESS THAN AN INCH AND S/WV ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
A STRONG SW/V WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND PW
VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED
AND FEEL SOME SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/WV. CONDS DRY OUT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND PW VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
BELOW AN INCH. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN ON THURSDAY AND MOISTURE
LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE. S/WV ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER S/WV WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND COUPLED WITH DEEPER MSTR...FEEL THIS FEATURE COULD
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
WITH REGARD TO A COLD FRONT ON FRI/SAT. THE GFS NOW BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH ON SAT NITE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTN. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF. 43
MARINE...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEA FOG LINGERING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL RE-ACCESS THE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BY 8 AM TO SEE IF IT NEEDS EXTENDING.
OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING FOG REDEVELOPING AND WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ARE A GOOD INDICATION THAT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SHOULD DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP SEA FOG FORMATION AT A MINIMUM. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE QUICKLY
BECOMING NORTHEAST. STRONGEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN TWO DAYS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...TIDES MAY BECOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG THE COAST AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
GALVESTON BAY DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. EXPECT IT TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
;-)
It was probably me, I was kind of late one morning on taking a shower. We were about 5 miles East of Spring right off of Riley Fuzzel road, which my Step Son told me the new Grand Parkway is going right down the center of that road.
Good thing you were here a couple weeks ago...it's like someone flipped a switch from winter to summer. A little gamey here as well.
Prelim Climate Summary-Monday, March 18, 2013
Houston Intercontinental Airport
Climate Normal 1981-2010
Climate Record Period 1892-2013
Today: 90°F-Record (Old record: 89°F/1907)
Normal: 74°:F
Galveston
Climate Normal 1981-2010
Climate Record Period 1875-2013
Today:78°F. Galveston's record of 80°F from 1972 stands.
Normal: 71°:F
College Station
Climate Normal 1981-2010
Climate Record Period 1092-2013
Today: 87°F-Tie (Old record: 87°F/2011)
Normal: 72°:F
click image for storm reports.
By the way - you get lots of bonus points for setting things up so the various charts and graphs open in a new window. I've always appreciated that but probably never have said so.
(Hi, Kaiden! Great to see you drop in. If you follow St. Arnold on Twitter, you can find out when they're tapping some of their specialties and where they're being served. Not all of their brews show up in the store, and the various watering holes that have them usually are tweeting like crazy!)
Rain is not looking like much for us. All of it is north of the boundary-from about Beaumont to Austin and north of us. Winds aloft are westerly, storms moving east. Would love to be wrong.
But it is a lovely, fragrant, evening up on this end.
Thanks for the bonus points! Some browsers allow you to right-click and open in a new tab so I wonder sometimes if it's necessary. More of a habit now than anything. I'll keep on!
Apparently, Divine Reserve #13 is THE St. Arnold beer of the moment!
Slight risk area probs at this time: Tors 2%, severe wind 15%, severe hail, 15%.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NWRN TX AND EXTREME SRN
OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES AN EXTENSIVE POLAR VORTEX ACROSS GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SPREADING ACROSS
THE WRN U.S. EMBEDDED WITHIN CONFLUENT/SPLIT FLOW. DISTURBANCES
WITHIN AN ACTIVE ZONAL SRN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK FROM NWRN
TX TO THE ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
...TX/OK...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOULD FEATURE A SUB-1000MB DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX PNHDL AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. SHARPENING DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD COINCIDENT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING AND RIPPLING EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FROM CDS TO NEAR SPS BY EVENING. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE
DYNAMICS AND DIURNALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER AND
CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED...AND LIKELY ISOLATED...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION NEAR THE TRIPLE-POINT LOW IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.
ASCENT...MOISTENING...AND CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...FROM ERN
OK TO THE ARKLATEX.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH EXPANDING CONVECTION NORTH AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT
FROM ERN OK TO THE ARKLATEX...A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS INITIALLY
EXPECTED FROM SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OVER NRN TX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN OK. AS STATED IN
PREVIOUS OTLKS...DESPITE THE PATTERN...TIME OF YEAR...AND SUPPORTIVE
DYNAMICS...THE PRIMARY AND SUBSTANTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE THE LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN INTO
ZONE OF CONCENTRATED ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF GUIDANCE INDICATING NO MORE THAN
500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR/AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE-POINT LOW BUT STRONG SHEAR
SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SUSTENANCE AROUND DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORM INITIATION...EXPECT ONE TO A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY/SLGT RISK AREA. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD EAST BEYOND ITS MORE SUPPORTIVE INITIATION ZONE AND LIKELY
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHILE
MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITH MORE ELEVATED STORMS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
HAVE REMOVED HIGHER TSTM WIND PROBABILITIES FROM PARTS OF THE NERN
TX PNHDL GIVEN LIMITED SIGNAL IN LATEST GUIDANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THIS AREA. WHILE VERY HIGH BASED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS.
..CARBIN/DARROW/MARSH.. 03/21/2013
Hi bl et al,
This tune brought the house down last night at Chesapeake Arena. Little Queen of Spades as recorded in Houston a few nights earlier. Enjoy. (edit)
Gray day here. Only a few raindrops so far. Severe not expected.
Ps. 22. beell 1:42 AM GMT on March 18, 2013
Pretty darn good if you ask me, which you didn't. :)
Even less rain than that here.
Good eye on the tree pollen swirls. I wonder how many works of natural art go unnoticed beneath our feet on a daily basis? Happy you captured this one on the dry side of the dock also!
March is usually our peak season for oak pollen. Tree Pollen (measured in grains per cubic meter of air) has been in the "extremely heavy" range beginning last week. Oak pollen seems to make up the majority of the count.
The City of Houston Health and Human Services issues a "Daily Pollen and Mold Spore" report on a daily basis excluding weekends ("you want me to count pollen and mold spres on the weekend? p***-off!). Some folks have offered up evidence that "pollen season" could begin earlier, last longer, and produce more pollen in a warming world. From what I have recently learned, the apparatus and procedures used to capture and count pollen and mold requires meticulous and strict adherence to protocol along with a high level of maintenence for accurate results. Yeah, right...The City...So maybe take the reports from one site with a grain of er, uh...pollen.
H&HS does maintain daily counts going back at least 10 years on their web site. Might be a good rainy day project to compile and chart the data. Now, if only it would rain...
(Hello, Numberwise)
Hiya, bf, Sounds like someone went to a rock concert. Didja hold up your lighter? Or do they have a smart phone app for that now? Good to hear EC.
SPC bumped the "SLIGHT" back to "SEE TEXT" for the Red River Valley. There have been some undermodeled caps of late. Maybe one more example.
Saturday promises more of the same strong cap for us down here in SE TX until FROPA-and then a very good chance for moderate CAPE and steep lapse rates to put down some large hail. Very weak modeled winds in the boundary layer (and even a little higher up) ADDED: Over Tx with this system so I would not expect much in the way of tornadoes. Should be a quick moving broken squall line as a guess.
Then, another shot of winter with some very stiff NW winds of 30 knots mixing to the surface. Loveable weather if you ask me...which you didn't.
Oh, and thanks for the props. I see the SPC has added a few more confirmed tornadoes to the Storm Reports. Some of them in NE AL. Watched that pretty close early Monday evening. That part of the line was oriented more S to N and really began to get active.
And then...the cold air wedge extended farther west across northern GA than my original guess. That portion of the line ground to a halt and the rest developed enough of a cold pool to begin propagating SE along the southern edge of the wedge front-cut off the inflow and the show was over in NW GA.
A bigger circle would have "looked" better!
Heir and the Spare did a fine job with 5/4 time on Take 5. Brubeck would be proud.
Thanks for the update.
5 beats to the measure/NPR.org
Thanks for the weather rundown. Was able to watch some on Monday, mostly tail end in GA. Re: Lack of t-storms. Guess I been seeing SPC as ultra-conservative rather than seeing unmodeled caps. But then, you know me and the models and even the skew-ts. I look forward and pay most attention to the moments of mesoscale interaction.
Yes, concert. (edit) Yes, a flashlight app exists. Combined with magnifying glass comes in handy for reading the menu in a dark restaurant, that is if you wear reading glasses as I do. (edit)
The circle graphic, yeah. But, combined with your words, I thought it was one of your best forecasts. (edit)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TX...NORTHERN LA...AND WESTERN MS...
...ARKLATEX...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS
OVER PORTIONS OF NM/TX. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS ANALYZED
NEAR DAL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST
TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA AND PARTS OF WESTERN MS BY
EVENING. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A REGION OF CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVES WEAK LARGE SCALE
ASCENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE RISK AREA TODAY. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING...AND THIS LIFT MAY HELP TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION REGARDING
LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEEP CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN MS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE CAPE VALUES...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL/DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN ANY STORMS THAT
CAN FORM. HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
...SOUTH FL...
STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT
INVOF A DIFFUSE SFC FRONT THAT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE NWD THROUGH
THE DAY. INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING -- LIMITED TO SOME EXTENT BY
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS STREAMING EWD FROM THE GULF -- WILL SUPPORT
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION AS LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS
SPREAD NWD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE MIDDLE
GULF. MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A
WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFT OR TWO. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
LACKING...WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES/WARMING OFFSET THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. AS SUCH...CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT TO SUPPORT ANY MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FURTHERMORE...THE LACK OF DEEPER
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STORMS FROM INTERACTING WITH THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...PRECLUDING A THREAT FOR DEEPER/ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.
..HART/COHEN/MARSH.. 03/22/2013
Maybe will need the magnifying glass app.
Good weekend, everyone.
Ps. No need for the app on Saturday unless you're in Oklahoma wishing for rain.
1230 cdt Day 2 Convective Outlook Saturday, probablistic...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...TX...LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231909Z - 232045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A PORTION OF ERN TX AND MUCH OF NRN LA CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A WATCH REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS WOOD...SMITH...AND
HENDERSON COUNTIES IN E TX MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS THAT STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CO/NM. WHILE
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM E TX INTO NRN LA WAS WELL NORTH OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND A WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST...INDICATIONS ARE THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER AND MOISTENING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AS LIFT
STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EXPECT BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE.
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTH OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE TRACK. THIS LOW MAY BE TAKING
SHAPE OVER E TX ATTM AND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL
LA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND POTENT BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER 50-60KT SHOULD PROMOTE STOUT AND PERSISTENT TSTM
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WIND DMG AND SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER AS LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER LA
WHERE MODEST WARMING OF RECOVERING MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION.
..CARBIN/HART.. 03/23/2013
20Z Day 1 Probabilistic Tornado
(click for complete outlook graphics)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...
...SRN GA/NRN FL WWD TO SRN AL/SERN MS THROUGH THE EVENING...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OF
THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN LA TO THE NRN FL
PENINSULA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...WHERE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
FRONT HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LIKELY EXTENDED ACROSS GULF
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES FL. THE FORECAST ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST EWD TO NRN FL/SRN GA REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE
INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE NERN FL COAST...WHILE
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND TRACK EWD IN VICINITY AND N
OF THE WARM FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AVAILABLE IN VALID AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS RELEVANT TO
WW/S 57 AND 58.
A COUPLE STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE THE NERN GULF
COAST...COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL BOTH OVER THE WATER AND AS
THEY REACH THE FL COAST. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND THIS HAIL POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO. THE LATTER THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST INVOF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST /EFFECTIVE SRH 200-300 M2 PER
S2/.
...E TX/LA/MS...
AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS
OF E TX /REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 304/ IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE CO/NM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND AN APPARENT LEAD IMPULSE/JET STREAK ADVANCING EWD ACROSS
W TX. 12Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/NSSL SUGGEST THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS NRN LA THROUGH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
SRN MS TO CENTRAL AL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK
OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF LA AND CENTRAL/SRN
MS...THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NWD. THIS OBSERVATIONAL DATA
SUPPORTS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...AND THUS HAVE ADDED A 30
PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY FROM NRN LA TO WEST CENTRAL AL. THE
WRF-NMM/NSSL ALSO SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND TRACKING EWD
FROM NRN LA TO CENTRAL AL COULD BE A QLCS...AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED
THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES NWWD.
..PETERS.. 03/23/2013
A LLJ, surface low, and warm sector were missing from the mix today-so the current 15% SPC risk will probably go up with tomorrow's Day 1.
WPC Surface Forecast-Valid Sunday, 12Z.
Current GOES WV Loop
Current 12hr 500mb height falls
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