Xaver

By: barbamz , 12:47 AM GMT on December 04, 2013

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Radar Europe with lightnings. Source.
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Update December 10:
Here some victims of our European storm Xaver, some of which survived and some unfortunately not. Stay well everyone!



U.K. Rescue Center Overrun With Orphaned (And Adorable) Seal Pups
by Eyder Peralta, December 10, 201311:24 AM

Dozens of seal pups missing after hurricane
Published: 10 Dec 2013 16:11 GMT 01:00
(Okay, take the "hurricane" with humor, it's the translation of German "Orkan" with the same roots in language as "hurricane".)


Lost beaches and coast line in the german island of Sylt (missing seal pubs are from another island, Helgoland, though). More.


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Update December 6:



Giant waves at Whitehaven/Cumbria/UK.


German Island Sylt, showing severe erosion of the vulnerable island. There are views of a beacon which already was endangered by storm Christian some weeks earlier. Now the whole land tongue is gone (and they already gave it up after Christian hit). So Germany shrinks, sigh ;)

Death toll unfortunately is at 7 now:
Deadly storm and tidal surge batter northern Europe
BBC News, 6 December 2013 Last updated at 18:15 GMT
Hurricane-force winds and tidal surges have killed at least seven people in northern Europe, flooded parts of Hamburg and left thousands of homes without electricity. ....

Edit: According to German news death toll is at 10 now ...



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Forecast maps for wind development.

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Present tide readings for Hamburg (should update when refresh, notice: the orange markers show the predicted hight of the next tides!!!!):



Interactive map for more locations.


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German live report with maps and pics.

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Radar Germany.

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Latest weather readings Germany (FF = average wind in km/h; FX = Top gales in km/h.)


Thunderstorms and lightning associated with Xaver. Source.



From Facebook site of the official German Weather Service DWD. Look here for more.

Live streaming webcam Sylt.

Map of Sylt (Northern Germany):


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Live streaming webcam Thyboroen/Denmark.

Location see wikipedia.

Xaver (saved images). Source for update.






Source DWD; will update.



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From earlier:

Main entry from Dr. Masters just has been dedicated to Xaver. Look there, it's much better than my informations.


Source.


Gale-Force Winds: Germans Brace for Major Winter Storm

English Spiegel, December 4

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From earlier:




Germany is going to see a very severe wind and winter storm at Thursday and Friday. Not so much at my place in the mid of the country but at its northern parts, especially in the islands and particularily in those regions with bayous of the Northern Sea. "Xaver", as the storm is named in Berlin, could be especially dangerous, as its winds with up to 180 kmh = 112 mph will coincide with a spring tide (tidal wave), creating a huge sturm surge in these bayous (City of Hamburg is at the end of one of them).

These weather conditions are somehow traumatic for (elderly) people in Germany as they remember the storm surge of 1962 which caused the death of 340 people (315 in the region of Hamburg).


Wilhelmsburg 1962 (Source wikipedia)

Of course, levees are built up higher now than in 1962 and weather forecasts improved a lot. Nevertheless its dangerous, and the storm may cause severe flooding and erosion in the islands and coastal regions of Germany and Denmark, apart from devastating winds which could reach far inland.

We'll see how it pans out, as those storms usually develop only a few hours before they hit.

Unfortunately I won't have much/any time to stick around here in the next days and weeks. So I hope I get some help from our fellow bloggers in Europe and from you all to cover this development, in case it becomes a significant one.

BBC published a little weather video today, but it's mostly focused on the British Islands.

This is the latest GFS pressure map (500 hpa), posted on a German weatherblog:



This is the alert map from wetteronline.de for Thursday (I'm in the not dangerous green zone):



WRF wind forecast (850hpa) for Thursday in knots:


(Saved image)


Forecast map published on German Spiegel Online.

Estofex discussion December 3:

... Northern Ireland, Scotland ...

In the exit region of a cyclonically curved jet-stream, reaching over 80 m/s at 300 hPa level, rapid cyclogenesis is forecast over the Atlantic and the center of the low is forecast to be centered just north of Scotland by Thursday 06 UTC. Intense pressure / geopotential gradient will support windspeeds of 40 to 50 m/s in 925 to 850 hPa level. Both GFS and ECMWF simulate marginal CAPE values just behind the main stratiform rain shield, suggesting split-front character. CAPE should be connected to a tongue of moister airmass just ahead of the surface cold front, so that strong forcing might support a compact, linearly oriented, low-topped convective system. With intense vertical wind field, such system could contribute to the "downward mixing" of momentum and extremely severe wind gusts will be well possible, especially over Scotland around 06 UTC. Tornadoes should be possible too given extreme low level wind shear and low cloud bases, but will likely be limited by the lack of isolated supercell mode. For the region with the highest threat, Level 2 seems to be warranted.

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Link: My last blog entry about wild weather and huge waves in Italy.

Link: Pics and reports of my little autumn vacation near Frankfurt.

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15. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:25 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
barbamz has created a new entry.
14. palmettobug53
4:35 PM GMT on December 08, 2013
Hi, Barb.

I could have sworn I'd been by but it must have been your previous entry.

I feel sorry for those folks who lost their bungalows to the sea but they were a bit too close to the shoreline, IMHO. It was inevitable that they'd topple in, as the shoreline eroded, which it will do.

Hope you're doing well.

We're chilly and wet but we haven't gotten the freezing temps that some of the U.S. has been getting. Thank heavens.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24968
13. barbamz
3:05 AM GMT on December 07, 2013
Thanks Scott! Here in Mainz Xaver was a non event. Hope everything went well with you, too?

My blog will have to be quiet for some days due to business stuff ....

All the best, Barb.

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And lol!

THE GHOST OF COMET ISON: This morning, Dec. 6th, leading researchers from the Comet ISON Observing Campaign (CIOC) held an informal workshop at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab. One of the key questions they discussed was, Did Comet ISON survive? It might seem surprising that anyone is still asking. After all, the "comet" that emerged from the sun's atmosphere on Thanksgiving day appeared to be little more than a disintegrating cloud of dust. This movie from the STEREO-A spacecraft (processed by Alan Watson) shows the V-shaped cloud fading into invisibility on Dec. 1st:



Source spaceweather.com; more here.

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This was Xaver. Source.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5632
12. airman45
7:04 AM GMT on December 06, 2013
Hi Barbara,

Hope you didn't blow away. The wind was gusty all night, at about 70 km/h, and still is now. Should be letting up soon. Up north, it was very bad.
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3506
11. barbamz
12:02 AM GMT on December 06, 2013


This was the view out of the window of my office earlier today at sunset in Mainz/Rhine River. Glowing clouds which had been sent south to us by "Xaver". Tower is from St. Stephan, founded in 975 or some years later, and now decorated with windows of Marc Chagall.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5632
10. barbamz
10:31 PM GMT on December 05, 2013
Hi, GardenGrrl, Scott and Briar, thanks. It's not so bad at my place. In Stuttgart (an other more eastern parts of the country) situation could become more severe.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5632
9. BriarCraft
9:11 PM GMT on December 05, 2013
According to what I read in BBCnews, the weather damage was mostly in northern Germany, so hopefully the high winds and heavy rain bypassed you and Airman45.
Member Since: June 21, 2004 Posts: 78 Comments: 3924
8. airman45
7:31 PM GMT on December 05, 2013
So far in northern Germany wind gusts have reached 169 kph (106 mph). Here in Stuttgart, far to the south, it s quite windy, with gusts reaching 70kph (42 mph). My rollladens (window shades, like shutters) are rattling quite loudly.
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3506
7. GardenGrrl
2:59 PM GMT on December 05, 2013
Stay safe.
Member Since: March 25, 2007 Posts: 249 Comments: 9300
6. barbamz
11:40 AM GMT on December 05, 2013
Hi all, and thank you. Have saved my hasty morning posts in the blog entry. Unfortunately I'm out until late in the evening. Sandi, stay safe!!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5632
5. sandiquiz
8:10 AM GMT on December 05, 2013
Hi Scott.... I will!!
It is a very fast moving storm, so by mid afternoon, things will be returning to normal. Hope you don't get much from it - it is a tad violent!
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 288 Comments: 25968
4. airman45
7:40 AM GMT on December 05, 2013
Hi Sandi,

Tell them to hang on!!
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3506
3. sandiquiz
7:37 AM GMT on December 05, 2013
Hi Barbara,

The BBC news has just reported a wind speed of 106 mph recorded in the north of Scotland about an hour ago... nothing down here in the south of the country, but the north and east coasts are getting a battering.

Also been reported that the storm surge, with high tides at lunch time, could be as bad as the 1953 east coast surge that killed over 300 people. Luckily, they say, the sea defences are much better than they were back then.
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 288 Comments: 25968
2. barbamz
1:26 AM GMT on December 05, 2013
Quoting 1. airman45:
Hi Barbara,

Not much expected way down here in southern Germany. In Stuttgart we may have wind gusts to 55 kph (32 mph), and then snow on Friday.


Yeah Scott, I'm not too concerned for my area as well. But we'll see what's going on in the North tomorrow/today (December, 5th).
I didn't update my blog today due to very few time, but posted some maps on Doc's blog recently.
Stay well, Barb.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5632
1. airman45
11:49 AM GMT on December 04, 2013
Hi Barbara,

Not much expected way down here in southern Germany. In Stuttgart we may have wind gusts to 55 kph (32 mph), and then snow on Friday.
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3506

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About barbamz

I'm Barbara in Germany (Mainz), and I'm interested in weather already for decades.