Top Climate Events of 2012
Another extreme year in weather has passed, the most extreme year in record-keeping, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. saw 11 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2012, including drought, wildfire, 2 hurricanes, and severe weather events. Though climate extremes are increasing across the globe—in Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia—no country topped the U.S. in extremes in 2012, and an increase in extreme weather is an impact expected in a warming world. There are more direct changes being seen, too, in the Arctic, and Greenland, and in our jet stream. Below are what I consider the top climate events of 2012.
Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Hurricane Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terrajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $62 billion.
Hurricane Sandy approaching the East Coast on October 28, 2012.
While Sandy was not an extreme "black swan" hurricane, its climate connections are hard to ignore. Sea surface temperature off the East Coast was abnormally warm this summer, which gave Sandy the fuel it needed to maintain its strong winds as it traveled north out of the Caribbean and to the Northeast. Sea level continues to rise, giving storms like Sandy a higher starting point to flood areas (like New York City) that have seen storm surges only rarely in the past. (More on sea level rise from Climate Central.) Maybe most crucially, the atmospheric pattern that we saw leading up to and during Superstorm Sandy could have been the result of diminishing Arctic sea ice, according to a study published this year by Jennifer A. Francis (Rutgers University) and Stephen J. Vavrus (University of Wisconsin-Madison), which found that sea ice loss is linked to increased atmospheric wave amplitude. In other words, less Arctic sea ice means more extreme and abnormal weather, especially drought, floods, cold spells, and heat waves. In relation to Sandy, we saw an extreme atmospheric "blocking" pattern as Sandy approached the U.S., which allowed the storm to jack-knife to the west into the coast, instead of heading east out to sea, which is more typical of North Atlantic hurricanes.
In the wake of Superstorm Sandy, New Yorkers were awakened to the issue of climate change and its potential (and current) threat to lives and property. According to a poll released in early December, the majority of New Yorkers think that the hurricane/superstorm was evidence of climate change, rather than just an isolated weather event. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed President Obama in the 2012 presidential election post-Sandy, citing climate change. “Our climate is changing,” Mayor Bloomberg wrote. “And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it may be—given the devastation it is wreaking—should be enough to compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.” And of course, Businessweek ran a cover story after the storm that we can hardly forget.
Hottest Year on Record in Contiguous U.S.
The first half of 2012 was so warm that by early August, the U.S. had already exceeded the number of record-high temperatures set or tied during all of 2011. 2012 was the hottest year on record in the lower 48 of the United States. In line with the global warming trend spurred by steadily rising carbon emissions, seven of the top 10 warmest years in the 48 states have occurred in the past 15 years. Like so much recent record-breaking weather, 2012 isn’t just going to top the previous record, 2012 is looking to smash it, by more than 1°F. The year-to-date period of January to November was by far the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.—a remarkable 1.0°F above the previous record. During the 11-month period, 18 states were record warm and an additional 24 states were top ten warm. In mid-December, Climate Central projected that 2012 average temperature for the continental U.S. at 55.34°F compared to the previous record set in 1998 of 54.32°F. For perspective, 1°F is one-quarter of the difference between the coldest and warmest years ever recorded in the U.S.
The Great Drought of 2012
The Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is likely biggest weather story of 2012, since its full impacts have not yet been realized. The area of the contiguous U.S. in moderate or greater drought peaked at 61.8% in July—the largest such area since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. The heat and dryness resulted in record or near-record evaporation rates, causing major impact on corn, soybean and wheat belts in addition to livestock production. Crop damages alone from the great drought are estimated at $35 billion. As the total scope of losses is realized across all lines of business in coming months, this number will climb significantly. Drought upstream of the Lower Mississippi River caused record and near-record low stream flows along the river in Mississippi and Louisiana, resulting in limited river transportation and commerce. Now, with winter ice forming at the northern end of the river, traffic is likely to be disrupted again soon. Dredging has been ongoing since July.
Figure 3. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.
333 Months of Warmer Than Average Temperature (and Counting)
November 2012 was Earth's 333rd consecutive month above average, and counting. Writes Jeff Masters, "the last time Earth had a below-average November global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985--during the Reagan administration, when the cost of a first-class stamp was 20 cents." Maybe more alarming, as Grist writes, If you’re 27 or younger, you’ve never experienced a colder-than-average month. A preponderance of scientific evidence shows this trend is due in large part to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, and is likely to continue.
Departure of temperature from average for November 2012, the 5th warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880.
Record Low Arctic Sea Ice
The Arctic saw record low sea ice extent in September 2012. The ice extent bottomed out at 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%, despite more favorable weather for the Arctic ice in 2012. 49% of the ice cap was gone this year. For the fifth consecutive year, and for the fifth time in history, ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coasts of Canada and Russia. "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."
A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.
Not only was the Arctic ice-free for navigation, but it was also ice-free for oil drilling. Shell oil has its sights set on the Arctic sea floor off the coast of northern Alaska. However, the oil giant has been thwarted a number of times this year by weather and technology, and in particular, the failure of the testing of their containment dome, which is designed to capture and seal off oil from the surrounding environment in the event of a spill. The mechanics on the dome failed as it was being lowered into the water for tests.
Huge Greenland Ice Sheet Melt
97% of Greenland underwent surface melting on July 12, 2012—an event completely unprecedented in 30 years of satellite measurements. The melt was confirmed in a press release from NASA, in which researcher Son Nghiem said, "This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to a data error?" Melt maps derived from three different satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet's surface had melted, as a strong ridge of high pressure set up over Greenland. By July 12, the melting had expanded to cover 97% of Greenland. Temperatures at at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level, and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle, had risen above the freezing mark four times in the 12-year span 2000 - 2011. But in mid-July 2012, temperatures eclipsed the freezing mark on five days, including four days in a row from July 11 - 14. Interestingly, ice core records show that in 1889, a similar pronounced melt event occurred at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and such events occur naturally about every 150 years. "But if we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome," said Lora Koenig, a NASA/Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data.
Melt water from the record July temperatures in Greenland fed the raging Watson River, which smashed two bridges connecting the north and south of Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord), a small settlement in southwestern Greenland. The flow rate of 3.5 million liters/sec was almost double the previous record flow rate.
U.S. Wildfires
The U.S. wildfire season in 2012 was the 3rd worst in recorded history. More than 9.1 million acres burned across the United States in 2012. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. These fires included the most destructive and 2nd largest wildfire in Colorado history, the Waldo Canyon Fire, which burned over 18,000 acres near Colorado Springs and destroyed 346 homes. The High Park Fire of 2012, which burned nearly 90,000 acres, had been Colorado's largest fire, until that record was broken again by the Waldo Canyon Fire just a few days later. The Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire was the largest in New Mexico state history, burning almost 300,000 acres, and the Little Bear Fire, which burned over 44,000 acres, was the state's most destructive fire. Oregon also saw it's largest wildfire in 150 years in the Long Draw Fire, which burned approximately 720,000 acres. U.S. wildfires were a billion-dollar weather disaster for the U.S. in 2012, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
Fire from the Waldo Canyon wildfire burns as it moved into subdivisions and destroyed homes in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Tuesday, June 26, 2012. (AP Photo/Gaylon Wampler)
A large increase in wildfires over much of the globe is expected as we move through this century. Researchers have found that 38% of the planet will see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase—particularly in the tropics—there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099.
The Non-Winter of 2011-2012
The contiguous U.S. saw its 3rd lowest snow cover on record during both winter and spring, and the winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest and 24th driest winter in U.S. history, going back to 1895. A primary cause of this warm and snowless winter was the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index was +2.52 in December 2011, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The positive NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S. This jet pattern is consistent with what research suggests could be the result of shrinking Arctic sea ice. This study found that less Arctic sea ice means more extreme and abnormal weather, especially drought, floods, cold spells, and heat waves.
Europe's Extreme Cold Snap
Europe experienced a historic deadly cold wave in January-February of 2012 that bright snow, sleet, and freezing rain to much of the continent. The harsh winter conditions killed over 800 people. The lowest temperature reached during the cold snap was -39.2°C (-38.2°F). A rare snow storm hit North Africa, which brought 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the cold snap was the most severe for Europe since February 1991.
Wunderphoto taken in Croatia on February 5, 2012 from antoniomise, who wrote, "snow in Dalmatia, frozen streets....sounds impossible but it happened! Snow is still present. In this part of world this is phenomena."
Similar to Sandy, Europe can blame the jet stream for their extreme weather. During this cold wave, the jet had a highly convoluted shape, with unusually large excursions to the north and south. When the jet bulges southwards, it allows cold air to spill in behind it, and that is what happened to Europe at the end of January and the beginning of February. The jet often gets "stuck" in one of these highly convoluted shapes, allowing a persistent period of extreme weather to occur. Again, this jet pattern is consistent with what research suggests could be the result of shrinking Arctic sea ice. This study found that less Arctic sea ice means more extreme and abnormal weather, especially drought, floods, cold spells, and heat waves.
Angela
Dr. Jeff Masters, Shaun Tanner, and Climate Central contributed to this post.
Reader Comments
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2:26 PM GMT on December 31, 2012
2:32 PM GMT on December 31, 2012
I have no way of knowing this for certain, but I think we are looking at the tip of the iceberg now. Your generation, Angela, is going to have to demand control over your future now and not later. Sitting back and waiting on my generation to protect your future is a losing proposition for all the future generations.
Soo many heart breaking disaters this year..
If we humans don't quickly recognize/and rectify the our detramental effects on our planet,then We are in for catastrophy..
When will solutions start to be relevant..
The alarm bell has been ringing for along time now..
Thanks for the great post.. :)
PS.forgive my spelling errors..LOL..no spell-check..
Thanks,
Talat Khatri
Folks inPrince William Sound [Cordova/Valdez] took a serious pounding.
Significant events~ even by Alaskan standards.
Interesting is the new research that indicates early man's observation of rapid climate change led to significant migration and perhaps faster adaptation/evolution.
Once I began to understand AGW, I also understood that we will probably fail to change our ways until it is necessary for the preservation of life.
Happy New year too, Angela
Hurricane Isaac (2012)
Hurricane Isaac was a slow-moving tropical cyclone that caused severe damage in the Caribbean and along the northern Gulf Coast of the United States in late-August 2012. The ninth tropical cyclone, ninth named storm, and fourth hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Isaac developed from a tropical wave located east of the Lesser Antilles on August 21, strengthening into a tropical storm later that day. Isaac passed over Hispaniola and Cuba as a strong tropical storm, killing at least 29 people in Hispaniola, before it entered the Gulf of Mexico.
Once Isaac went into the gulf, it was forecast to become a strong Category 2 hurricane. However, the land interaction with Hispaniola disrupted the system and prevented a solid core from developing until just before landfall. Isaac reached hurricane strength the morning of August 28. The storm made its first U.S. landfall at 6:45 p.m. CDT that evening (2345 UTC), near the mouth of the Mississippi River.
It made a second and final landfall at 2:00 a.m. CDT (0700 UTC) the next morning at Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Due to its large size, the hurricane produced a relatively large storm surge. At least nine fatalities have been confirmed in the United States: five in Louisiana and two each in Mississippi and Florida.
30,000 Homes in Louisina were reported flooded.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency for Louisiana on August 26. Later that day, reports of exposed levees in Louisiana began surfacing from local news outlets. Crews were reportedly dispatched to cover the exposed dirt with heavy plastic and fill gaps in the levees with Hesco bastions.
A mandatory evacuation was ordered for St. Charles Parish and for the east bank of Plaquemines Parish and in Lafourche Parish below the Leon Theriot floodgates in Golden Meadow. 4,000 National Guard troops were activated in the state. Governor Jindal announced that he would not attend the 2012 Republican National Convention and would remain in his state to take care of storm-related problems.
On August 27, President Obama ordered federal aid to Louisiana to supplement state and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Tropical Storm Isaac beginning on August 26, 2012. Governor Jindal on August 27 sent a letter to the Obama administration that the declaration fell short of the help he was requesting. Gov. Jindal has temporarily suspended Louisiana's licensing requirements for emergency medical technicians, to let medical assistance officials from other states help Louisiana respond to Hurricane Isaac. Louisiana Commissioner of Administration Paul Rainwater announced that all state government offices would be closed August 29.
The US Army Corps of Engineers closed the Seabrook Floodgate and the IHNC Lake Borgne Surge Barrier to protect the New Orleans area from a storm surge.
Visible satellite image during the early morning of August 29 of Isaac as it slowly moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Happy New Year Angela!
The flicker photo shown was taken in Japan, not Alaska.
Great reporting on the happenings of the last year. Hopefully 2013 will be quieter!
11:15 PM GMT on December 31, 2012
They're adjusted to the current year. Dollar damage is very important in understanding the risk that climate change poses to the global society.
It hasn't been snowing in Tripoli since 1956,not even a flake.
It's amazing how supposed professionals (?) confuse well different types of precipitation.
Snow events in Tripoli in the XX century only includes February 1915 (2cm) and February 1956 and February 1913 (no ground accumulation).
The guy who published that picture of hail in Tripoli in Accuweather clearly doesn't know the basics of meteorology.
I believe you are correct. My apologies but I was sent the initial picture from someone who lives over there in Valdez. I zoomed in and these folks are driving on the left!
Like most people who understand a bit about about climate vs. weather, I am aware that individual weather events cannot be directly correlated with AGW/CC. However, James Hansen's 2012 report on extreme weather events begins to link their frequency to AGW/CC. It will probably take a few more years before the link is "in your face" obvious to most people, although a couple more years like 2012 could shorten that time frame.
The fact is that cyclone activity as measured by ACE is at near 30 year lows worldwide... and the 2012 tornado season was extremely inactive.
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