Storm Chasing with Charlesimages !

By: Winterstormsblog , 3:39 AM GMT on November 30, 2010

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"Epic Lake Effect Snowstorm" - NWS Northern Indiana


I will be storm chasing in far Southwest lower Michigan tomorrow (sunday), and maybe again on Monday and/or Tuesday, depending on how much time I can get off work. I will be wherever the primary band is set up. I will post pictures and maybe some video here on the blog. Wish me luck that my little Sable doesnt get stuck in the massive amounts of snow that are expected!

Here is my latest snowfall predictions for the event...








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UPDATED SNOWFALL MAP





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Lake Effect Snow May Impact Travel

Lake effect snow showers will develop later tonight and continue on and off through Thursday. A cold front that passed through the region will be ushering in colder air for the next several days. With Lake Michigan still generally in the mid 40s, colder air aloft will be one key ingredient for lake effect snow showers this week. Other ingredients include 5,000 to 7,000 ft of saturated air along with vertical motion. Snowflakes generally grow to their largest size when saturated conditions and sufficient lift are present in air that is -12C to -18C. This is often referred to as the "dendritic growth zone", or DGZ. Conditions this week will not be ideal for widespread heavy snow, but here are the expected impacts:



Snow showers will accumulate 2-4" near and west of U.S. 131 from tonight through Friday morning.
Snow showers will accumulate 1-2" inland away from Lake Michigan from tonight through Friday morning.
The Wednesday evening commute for lakeshore areas as well as the greater Grand Rapids area will likely be impacted by steadier snow showers and slick roads.
Melting of snow on roadways may occur, especially during the daytime. However, conditions will deteriorate at night and under heavier snow bands when the snow may stick.


After a mild and rainy Tuesday, a cold front will sweep through the Great Lakes leaving behind cold air and lake effect snow showers! Tuesday evening is when the first flakes will fly in west Michigan. Accumulations will be light, with maybe 1-4 inches west of US-131 by Wednesday evening. Details are still pretty unknown about the lake effect snow, but nonetheless I have made a map with my foretasted snowfall totals. On a side note, a clipper looks like it is going to affect the Great Lakes region this weekend, with some light synoptic snows and lake effect snows.

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In Early January I will be moving from my hometown of Ann Arbor, MI westward, to Allendale, MI. I am transferring to Grand Valley State university, and will be living right in the middle of the Lake Michigan Snowbelt!!! (See map below)


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29. SuperYooper
5:12 PM GMT on December 05, 2010
Heh. Should have done your snow chasing up here.


Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 9:57 AM EST on December 05, 2010


... Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 4 PM EST
Monday...

Impacts...

* travel will remain hazardous through Monday... with snow
covered and slippery roads.

* Visibilities will also be reduced in the heavier snow bands... and
in locations with blowing and drifting snow due to gusty winds
near Lake Superior.

Hazardous weather...

* expect moderate to heavy lake effect snow bands to continue over
eastern Marquette and western Alger counties. These heavier snow
showers will continue through Monday afternoon... tapering off
slightly this afternoon... before strengthening again overnight.
Lighter snow showers will remain over the west half of Marquette
and the east half of Alger counties.

* Look for total accumulations through Monday of 10 to 18 inches
near the Marquette and Alger County line... from Marquette and
Harvey... to Skandia... and Eben Junction. Lesser amounts of 2 to 6
inches are expected west of Negaunee.

* Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph... with gusts near 30 mph... could
produce blowing and drifting snow through Monday... particularly
near Lake Superior.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* a lake effect snow warning means significant amounts of lake
effect snow are forecast that will make travel very hazardous or
impossible. Lake effect snow showers typically align themselves in
bands and will likely be intense enough to drop 1 to several
inches of snow per hour for several hours. Visibilities vary
greatly and can drop to zero within minutes. Travel is strongly
discouraged. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight...
food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

* For additional information or to submit snowfall reports to
the NWS Marquette... visit www.Weather.Gov/MQT





Local Storm Report


12/05/2010 0800 am

Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow m5.8 inch, reported by co-op observer.


24 hour report. 0.43 inches liquid equivalent. 8 inches
snow depth.




12/05/2010 0945 am

2 miles SSE of Harvey, Marquette County.

Snow m9.0 inch, reported by NWS employee.


24 hour report.





12/05/2010 0540 am

2 miles WNW of Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow m4.5 inch, reported by co-op observer.


24 hour report. 0.47 inches liquid equivalent. 5 inches
snow depth.




12/05/2010 0730 am

6 miles SSE of Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow m8.0 inch, reported by NWS employee.


In the last 24 hours. Snow depth of 8 inches.





12/05/2010 0540 am

Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow m5.0 inch, reported by NWS employee.


9 hour storm total





12/05/2010 0422 am

Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow e6.0 inch, reported by public.


8 hour storm total





12/05/2010 0300 am

Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow m4.0 inch, reported by NWS employee.


7 hour storm total





12/05/2010 0200 am

Marquette, Marquette County.

Snow m3.0 inch, reported by NWS employee.


2.5 to 3 inches... approx. 6 hour total
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1606
28. TheDawnAwakening
4:28 PM GMT on December 05, 2010
I will really be interested to see the pictures WSB, have a fun time and stay safe.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
27. HeavySnow
4:22 PM GMT on December 05, 2010
Lucky!
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2998
26. Winterstormsblog
1:35 AM GMT on December 05, 2010
Blizzard,

Most Definitely! Im going down there with Charles, so there will definitely be a LOT of pictures taken.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
25. Zachary Labe
9:37 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
Quoting Winterstormsblog:
GOING SNOW CHASING TOMORROW IN BENTON HARBOR AREA!!!

Post pictures!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
24. Winterstormsblog
9:01 PM GMT on December 04, 2010
GOING SNOW CHASING TOMORROW IN BENTON HARBOR AREA!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
23. TheDawnAwakening
6:01 PM GMT on December 02, 2010
Yeah WSB, Buffalo southtowns could see as much as 30" of snow and as much as 3' of snow when all is said and done.

Yeah the storm will be intense when it passes out to sea, models are closer to a full phase with the PV.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
22. Winterstormsblog
4:19 PM GMT on December 02, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Congrats WSB, I am starting to worry about the clipper, looks like the thoughts of it going out to sea will hold steady. Now we just need the models to consistently stay where they are and there are no more headaches. I am fine with the storm out to sea, I hate the inconsistency in the models this fall. Although the pattern screams that the 18z NAM is close to being correct, this new storm around the 3rd that hits Nova Scotia is creating havoc in the overall NE US pattern.

It does look a little intense as it goes out to sea...too bad its gonna be to my south when it passes me :(

Its been snowing here all morning with visibilities ranging from 1.25 - 2.50 miles. a little less than an inch so far today.

Superyooper, Luce county and surrounding areas are getting pounded...not nearly as much as Buffalo's south suburbs tho...damn.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
21. SuperYooper
2:29 PM GMT on December 02, 2010
Morning WSB. Thought I should update you on what is going on up here.

It looks like a 3-4 inch line of snow fell from L'Anse west, eventually running out around Ironwood which only got a inch. Most areas got some though.

Marquette area basically got none. On my way up to Negaunee there was just what I would call a dusting...not even enough to worry about. Really fluffy.

Munising is getting pounded. Reports of 6 inches so far in areas. So is the Sault. They have reports of 8". Just west of there, Newberry has reports of 4.

Turns out that this is a decent lake effect event but has left out the middle. FINE BY ME! HA HA HA!
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1606
20. TheDawnAwakening
4:34 AM GMT on December 02, 2010
Congrats WSB, I am starting to worry about the clipper, looks like the thoughts of it going out to sea will hold steady. Now we just need the models to consistently stay where they are and there are no more headaches. I am fine with the storm out to sea, I hate the inconsistency in the models this fall. Although the pattern screams that the 18z NAM is close to being correct, this new storm around the 3rd that hits Nova Scotia is creating havoc in the overall NE US pattern.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
19. Winterstormsblog
3:36 AM GMT on December 02, 2010
6 inches and counting here in Walker, MI !!!

I'll post some pictures tomorrow...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
18. Winterstormsblog
7:18 PM GMT on December 01, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Hey Charles.

Dangerous Lake Effect Snow band developing over Lake Erie into Genesee, NY and the south towns of Buffalo. Please drive carefully within this intense LE band. Snowfall rates can approach and exceed 2"/hr and snowfall totals of 2'+ are possible if the band persists over an area.

That sounds awesome! Wish I was there...

4.7 inches so far today here in Walker, MI ! Still snowing strong...wouldnt be surprised if they upgraded us to a warning..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
17. TheDawnAwakening
7:17 PM GMT on December 01, 2010
WSB, I would not side with the GFS when it comes to the clipper, I think that model is behind the curve with it, foreign models seem more reasonable with a near miss at least for Cape Cod, MA. Would like to see the GGEM and EURO ensemble means before getting excited about this coastal storm. Could be a doozy if this trended west by about 50-100 miles.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
16. TheDawnAwakening
7:15 PM GMT on December 01, 2010
Hey Charles.

Dangerous Lake Effect Snow band developing over Lake Erie into Genesee, NY and the south towns of Buffalo. Please drive carefully within this intense LE band. Snowfall rates can approach and exceed 2"/hr and snowfall totals of 2'+ are possible if the band persists over an area.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
15. Winterstormsblog
12:58 PM GMT on December 01, 2010
Quoting charlesimages:
Not a whole lot man, just working on my site, my facebook "like" page, and made a new avatar image to display. Yes even here.

About a 1/4 inch here too man, I am awaiting a "moderate?" band to come and get me, might snag a photo or two. careful on the roads, oh wait a minute you're the snow chaser LOL


Pushing an inch here so far...coming down pretty steady....have to update my map to bump up snow totals a little...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
14. charlesimages
9:17 AM GMT on December 01, 2010
Not a whole lot man, just working on my site, my facebook "like" page, and made a new avatar image to display. Yes even here.

About a 1/4 inch here too man, I am awaiting a "moderate?" band to come and get me, might snag a photo or two. careful on the roads, oh wait a minute you're the snow chaser LOL
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
13. Winterstormsblog
7:59 AM GMT on December 01, 2010
Quoting charlesimages:
Hey buddy nice to see ya. Here's what's happening in my neck of the woods (Kent City, MI). Sleet, and freezing drizzle to begin, it's mostly snow now. Here's the view of what it looked like around the midnight hour. Click image for more info.


My Truck with Sleet/Freezing Drizzle Accumulation More images can be found by Clicking Here.


Whats up chuck!

I just drove back from Allendale to Walker....almost a half inch in Allendale and coming down pretty steady with decent size flakes....more like a 1/4 inch here in Walker and the flakes arent as big.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
12. charlesimages
7:42 AM GMT on December 01, 2010
Hey buddy nice to see ya. Here's what's happening in my neck of the woods (Kent City, MI). Sleet, and freezing drizzle to begin, it's mostly snow now. Here's the view of what it looked like around the midnight hour. Click image for more info.


My Truck with Sleet/Freezing Drizzle Accumulation More images can be found by Clicking Here.
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
11. Winterstormsblog
10:20 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
And so it begins..

Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
10. SuperYooper
9:24 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
I knew they were overcasting. No way we were going to get 3 inches.

Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 3:00 PM CST on November 30, 2010


... Slippery roads and sidewalks tonight into Wednesday...

As colder air arrives from the west this evening and temperatures
fall quickly below 32... lingering wet areas on untreated roads
and sidewalks may quickly freeze. Snow showers are likely to
develop this evening... and freezing drizzle is also possible.
Although any ice accumulation will be negligible... this wintry mix of
precipitation will compound this threat of slippery conditions.

Expect 1 to 2 inches of lake effect snow accumulation over western
Upper Michigan tonight. Another 1 to 3 inches is forecast to fall on
Wednesday. The heaviest snow is most likely over higher terrain from
Wakefield to Rockland... and Twin Lakes. Less than an inch of snow
will accumulate in Marquette and Crystal Falls.

Kc

Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1606
9. Winterstormsblog
7:40 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting cerqs:




You think so? So far its been a complete bore.

BTW: Happy to return to your site

Hey Cergs!

I do think so....although mainly just for lake effect areas, since the synoptic activity is not impressive at all.

TDA, it looks like a long lasting moderate lake effect event. The clipper seems to weaken just before approaching the central Great Lakes..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
8. cerqs
7:32 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting Winterstormsblog:

Hey Keeper!

Im getting excited about the pattern past this weekend. Looks good for the Great Lakes area..




You think so? So far its been a complete bore.

BTW: Happy to return to your site
Member Since: July 17, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 312
7. TheDawnAwakening
7:18 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
It looks like the clipper next weekend will be the strong catalyst for heavy LES event.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
6. Winterstormsblog
4:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Good morning everyone. 44 and Rainy here in Walker, MI...About to go check in with the 12z model runs...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
5. SuperYooper
2:08 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
They've overestimated how much we will get. Inch to 2 max. I'll update Friday with snow totals.
Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1606
4. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:00 AM GMT on November 30, 2010
looking snowy for all of the grt lakes regions
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59118
3. Winterstormsblog
3:57 AM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
get ready friend the next after the current is when the real stuff begins

Hey Keeper!

Im getting excited about the pattern past this weekend. Looks good for the Great Lakes area..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
2. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:55 AM GMT on November 30, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59118
1. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:53 AM GMT on November 30, 2010
get ready friend the next after the current is when the real stuff begins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59118

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