Double Trouble: Ana forms; TD 3 developing

By: Cavin Rawlins , 10:39 AM GMT on August 15, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ana (left), while Invest 90L (right)


Tropical Storm Ana has formed in the Atlantic, and it is understood that this is rather unexpected since 24 hrs ago it was a remnant low. The first named storm of the season is located near 14.6N 46.8W or 1630 KM east of the Leeward Islands. Estimated surface winds are near 40 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb. The satellite presentation of this small tropical storm greatly improved during the day on Friday and this was confirmed by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane, which found a well-define circulation and tropical depression winds. This system was re-designated around 12:30am EDT this morning. Currently the system is moving into much warmer waters and shear is 10 knots above the disturbance, unlike what nearly killed it on Thursday. Shear also remains favourable but not ideal and there is the issue of dry air ahead of the disturbance, but some further strengthening remains possible.

The storm is moving to the west but slightly south thereof. The storm will continue west but then turn more west northwest over the upcoming days under the influence of a high-pressure ridge. This system was expected to be a fish storm, now its heading right for the islands and Florida. Tropical Storm Ana should reach the islands in about 2 days then the Greater Antilles by 3 days and the Bahamas by 5 days. According to how close Tropical Storm Ana comes, tropical storm conditions are expected for the Leeward Islands, that is, heavy rains and gusty winds, then will likely spread to Puerto Rico 12 hrs later.



That’s just system number 1. Behind 90L is a more troubling system. Tropical Invest 90L is on the verge of becoming Tropical Depression 3 then Tropical Storm Bill later this weekend. Satellite imagery showed an organizing system with clusters of deep convection wrapping around the center of circulation. Dvorak estimates have climbed to 2.0, which is about 35 mph, which indicate a depression has form or is forming. QuikSCAT also revealed a very define circulation with alteast 30 knot winds. It is likely if this continues, we will have a new depression in the Atlantic today.

Invest 90L is moving west, just as Ana is doing but then will eventually curve more west northwest. In about 72 hrs or 3 days, the models are thinking 90L will be strong enough to feel more of weakness in the ridge and be pull north. The turn northwest is rather sudden on the 06Z runs and that’s why the official track remains south of the global models. This official track brings 90L over Anguilla in approximately 5 days as a hurricane. If 90L continues to track west, the forecast tracks will also shift just like the case with Tropical Storm Ana.


Official Guidance in black

I encourage all in the islands, Bahamas and Florida to monitor the progress of both Ana and 90L. Review your hurricane plan today and get your needed supplies. Those in the islands know it only takes a tropical wave to cause major flooding problems. In addition, listen to what your local mets are saying because it likely watches may go up today or on Sunday.

Weather456

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29. mobal
1:57 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
Well, I knew I should not...but I read the Docs blog comments, one page......anyhow...

2372. Weather456 7:31 PM CST on August 15, 2009
Goerges 1998 is an analog storm to Bill, Also Donna 1960


I see nothing that will ever back analog data up, ever....sorry, just my thoughts...BTW a pine tree missed me by a few seconds in Goerges....

No disrespect meant here, just my thoughts.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
28. originalLT
1:00 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
Weather 456, what did you mean by your statement that a"Black Hole" over the equator is drawing Bill a little S of West? I ask you here on your Blog because it is a little quieter here. Also, best of luck to you with these storms, I hope they ver-off N of you and hit no one.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8011
27. pottery
3:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Very good Post. Thanks.
Raining here this morning, after localised flooding again yesterday.
Going to be some heavy showers today too.
Its is finally THE RAINY SEASON.
Some exciting stuff to look forward to in the next couple of weeks in the Northern Islands.
Stay safe.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25742
26. fredwx
2:44 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
looks like 90L from sat pics and quickscat is a TD and close to TS strength
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
25. Cavin Rawlins
2:36 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
WTNT33 KNHC 151434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.5N 34.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
24. twhcracker
2:33 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
This came true, as the system's remnants regenerated into a tropical depression early on August 15 and shortly strengthened into the first tropical storm of the season. Ana and another area of low pressure to its east were encountering wind shear. The wind shear has now diminished, allowing for slow strengthening of both storms.



camille was the same weekend as woodstock and they are having woodstock anniversary on tv.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
23. twhcracker
2:32 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Quoting swflastormy:
Cracker, Our forecast here in Fort Myers is calling for that system to skirt our coast and possibly develop and head NW. Don't know what part of the PH you are in, but sure it will go west of P'Cola. Good luck.


i am 40 mi north of panama city and 40 mi south of dothan ala
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
22. Cavin Rawlins
2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
This came true, as the system's remnants regenerated into a tropical depression early on August 15 and shortly strengthened into the first tropical storm of the season. Ana and another area of low pressure to its east were encountering wind shear. The wind shear has now diminished, allowing for slow strengthening of both storms.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
21. ajcamsmom2
2:20 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Thanks so very much for the update.
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2496
20. lawntonlookers
2:14 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Thanks for the update 456. Stay safe. What do you think about the storm near Key West, FL. It looks like it has some circulation.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
19. Cavin Rawlins
1:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
TS Ana sure is low

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
18. Babsjohnson
12:58 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Great synopsis. Didn't Andrew form in the same general area?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 138
17. hahaguy
12:45 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
thanks for your update.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
16. shoreacres
12:21 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Thanks for the clear and easy-to understand update & the quick answer to tkeith, who asked my question ;-) We'll be watching with you.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
15. swflastormy
12:21 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Cracker, Our forecast here in Fort Myers is calling for that system to skirt our coast and possibly develop and head NW. Don't know what part of the PH you are in, but sure it will go west of P'Cola. Good luck.
14. ILwatcher
12:18 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Excellent update, 456.

Thanks for all you do to keep us informed.

We'll be sitting with you over the next week, or so. Stay safe.
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1644
13. lavinia
12:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Great update 456! Please stay safe!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
12. twhcracker
11:57 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
does anyone have any ideas about where the blob around miami is gonna go? i am in the fla panhandle. and do you think it could strengthen into anything significant. thanks
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
11. Redhead
11:47 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Thanks, 456! Praying for you and your family! Stay safe!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
10. OGal
11:45 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
What a terrific update. You stay safe! You are our eyes. Just watchin and waitin here in Florida. We soo remember Fay last year. She was the reason for hubby and me getting flood insurance. 90L is a major worry for all of us.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
9. weathergeek5
11:27 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
For some reason I thought you were from the mainland. I did not realize you live in the Antilles. Be safe man.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
8. seflagamma
11:21 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Good morning 456,

like everyone else has said,
Thank you so much for your update and your thoughts... and you and your island be careful and stay safe. We will all be here for the next few days watching these systems with you.

Enjoy your Saturday.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 306 Comments: 41049
7. IpswichWeatherCenter
11:09 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Brilliant update, everyone keep safe.
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
6. conchygirl
10:59 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Thanks 456! Be safe! Excellent update!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
5. aquak9
10:50 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Good luck to you and everyone in the islands, 456. We'll be keeping ya'll in our prayers.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27804
4. Cavin Rawlins
10:49 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Quoting tkeith:
Looking at the water vapor imagry 456, it looks like the area of dry air may hinder Ana's devlopment a little. But if it does absorb the dry air wont that help increase 90L/TD3's development?


correct, it has actually paved the way for 90L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3. tkeith
10:47 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Looking at the water vapor imagry 456, it looks like the area of dry air may hinder Ana's devlopment a little. But if it does absorb the dry air wont that help increase 90L/TD3's development?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8941
2. JRRP
10:47 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
great blog
very informative
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6794
1. homelesswanderer
10:46 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Thanks 456.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.

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