Tropical Update

By: Cavin Rawlins , 10:30 AM GMT on July 15, 2009

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A very broad area of low pressure extends from the Central Atlantic to the West Coast of Africa with two tropical waves located at 40W and 22W, both south of 16N. Satellite imagery showed showers are limited along these feature and that is likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures and a layer of Saharan Dust to the north. It is likely these features will not develop in the near term, but QuikSCAT and total precipitable water loops continue to show deep layer rotation along these features. These very vigorous tropical waves have the potential to develop further west under more favourable conditions.

There are several global models, which develop these features. First, the CMC develops the central Atlantic wave at 40W and tracks it west-northwest, reaching tropical storm strength as it crosses the Windwards Islands on Sunday. The 00Z GFS has a more northerly solution and keeps the feature an open low most of the way from 40W, across the Leeward Islands and then nearing the Bahamas next week. This model has trended south of the 06Z run. The UKMET shows some development with the feature near the Cape Verdes as it tracks west. Last, the ECMWF merges the two lows and track them west then northwest, reaching the Bahamas next Wednesday, similar to the GFS.

Each model shows some level of westward component to the wave and I will go with a track between the CMC and GFS/ECMWF. The reason being, there is a very strong subtropical ridge across the Atlantic and it is strengthening and expected to continue to build. This is likely going to track any feature almost due west. The feature (s) may find some weakness on the western edge of the high due to a vigorous trough that is expected to dip over the Eastern United States next week. However, I was looking that very same trough and it barely tracks across the Eastern CONUS to allow much curvature of any feature before reaching atleast the Bahamas, hence the GFS/ECMWF solutions.

So basically, we have a broad area of low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic centred on a few tropical waves that is not expected to develop in the near term, but should be watch in the long-term as they near the islands weekend. Regardless of development, increase in shower activity is most likely expected for the islands later this weekend and early next week.

Closer to home, the GFS continues to support development of a low pressure along the tail end of a frontal boundary across the Northern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday. The model has some support from the CMC and ECMWF, which tracks a low pressure from the Northern Gulf into the Florida Panhandle across the Southeast United States. I will continue to monitor this area, but regardless of development, increase in moisture expected for the Northern Gulf Coast and Southeast United States this weekend into next week.

Weather456

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19. Cavin Rawlins
4:38 PM GMT on July 16, 2009
Quoting cyclonekid:
456, when do you think we will have our 2nd TD and our 1st TS?


Most likely before August 7.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
18. cyclonekid
4:12 PM GMT on July 16, 2009
456, when do you think we will have our 2nd TD and our 1st TS?
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
17. Chicklit
2:55 PM GMT on July 16, 2009
So, we may have an Invest in the coming days.
Thanks 456.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11452
16. WxLogic
2:32 PM GMT on July 16, 2009
Thanks
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5051
15. InTheCone
1:09 PM GMT on July 16, 2009
Thanks 456, excellent update!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
14. DDR
11:59 AM GMT on July 16, 2009
nice update,looks like you'll get your share of rain soon.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1742
13. Cavin Rawlins
10:38 AM GMT on July 16, 2009
Tropical Update

I continue to watch several strong tropical waves but none is showing signs of development as yet. QuikSCAT last night and this morning continue to show one of these vigorous waves near 30W, possess a low level circulation and thus should be watch as it head west. This morning satellite imagery showed few shower activity along any of these features due to warmer sea surface temperatures and some dust. Most models expect this tropical wave to head west and should reach the islands by Sunday. Most of the computer models are now backing down shear, and along with dispersing dust and progressively warmer waters, these features now stand a chance even in the Caribbean. I will continue to monitor these features and I%u2019ll have a full update on Friday. Regardless of development, a deep layer moisture surge is expected for the Northeast Caribbean with rainfall amounts up to 1-3 inches and locally 4 inches in the windward slopes.

These areas will have to be watch next week as they near the vicinity of the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas area.

Weather456
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
12. viman
12:07 AM GMT on July 16, 2009
Hey W456, how are you? Nice update!
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 382
11. hahaguy
5:12 PM GMT on July 15, 2009
Great update
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
10. homelesswanderer
3:49 PM GMT on July 15, 2009
Thanks. Great update. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
9. Chicklit
1:06 PM GMT on July 15, 2009
Groundhog Day...Didn't we do this yesterday?
Thanks 456.
(hope you don't mind if I point out typos: "So basically... low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic centred on a few tropical waves that is not expected to develop in the near term, but should be watch in the long-term as they near the islands weekend.")
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11452
8. ajcamsmom2
12:29 PM GMT on July 15, 2009
Wow, thanks for the update, glad to know it is looking a bit wet along the Gulf Coast next week, will have to check a bit further before taking the kids to New Orleans....
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
7. WxLogic
11:34 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
You read my mind.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5051
6. TheWeatherMan504
11:14 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I meant to answer you question. Living on the island is great, I have never lived on the mainland of any country so I cannot really say if I would like it better. When it comes to hurricanes though, we cannot head inland like those in the USA. Actually inland on the islands is more dangerous since they are at an higher elevation, they experience higher winds. Living on the island, is a tropical paradise, and I would not trade it for elsewhere. Our island is small, and only takes us about 2-3 hrs to encircle it. We can basically see neigbouring islands also.


With the GFS loop, I downloaded each image in the sequence and then import them into unfreeze, a GIF animator software.


Thank's so much for the answer. The Truth is that a long term plan(3-5 years)of mine is to move out of the US and move to one of the Lesser Antilles after I graduate from College. I'm getting sick of Paying Taxes to a Government that doesn't know what to do with my money. The reason why I like the Lesser Antilles is because I like life near the water, its warm year round, and I want to be somewhere where it isn't so corrupt. Actually, I went to Saint Kitts when I was 16 for a vacation and Ive always wanted to go back, and that's probably where I want to move. SO I will be saving my money for the next few years and I will see what I can do. BTW... Does Saint Kitt's have some kind of Meteorological Dept. where I could work if I ever moved there?
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
5. Cavin Rawlins
10:55 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
Quoting potteryX:
Good morning to you.
Looks like we will have something to keep an eye on for true, the rest of this week.
Hope you are doing well.


Doing good up here. You?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
4. Cavin Rawlins
10:53 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Weather456,

Great Update...


How do you turn those Loops into GIF's?


I meant to answer your question. Living on the island is great, I have never lived on the mainland of any country so I cannot really say if I would like it better. When it comes to hurricanes though, we cannot head inland like those in the USA. Actually inland on the islands is more dangerous since they are at an higher elevation, they experience higher winds. Living on the island, is a tropical paradise, and I would not trade it for elsewhere. Our island is small, and only takes us about 2-3 hrs to encircle it. We can basically see neigbouring islands also.


With the GFS loop, I downloaded each image in the sequence and then import them into unfreeze, a GIF animator software.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3. TheWeatherMan504
10:45 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
Weather456,

Great Update...


How do you turn those Loops into GIF's?
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
2. potteryX
10:37 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
Good morning to you.
Looks like we will have something to keep an eye on for true, the rest of this week.
Hope you are doing well.
1. Cavin Rawlins
10:31 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
Animation of the tropical wave that emerged yesterday morning, a keeper:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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About Weather456

With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.

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