With a Bachelors Degree in Environmental Sciences (2009), began tracking tropical storms in 2002 and is now a private forecaster.
By: Cavin Rawlins , 10:30 AM GMT on July 15, 2009
A very broad area of low pressure extends from the Central Atlantic to the West Coast of Africa with two tropical waves located at 40W and 22W, both south of 16N. Satellite imagery showed showers are limited along these feature and that is likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures and a layer of Saharan Dust to the north. It is likely these features will not develop in the near term, but QuikSCAT and total precipitable water loops continue to show deep layer rotation along these features. These very vigorous tropical waves have the potential to develop further west under more favourable conditions.
There are several global models, which develop these features. First, the CMC develops the central Atlantic wave at 40W and tracks it west-northwest, reaching tropical storm strength as it crosses the Windwards Islands on Sunday. The 00Z GFS has a more northerly solution and keeps the feature an open low most of the way from 40W, across the Leeward Islands and then nearing the Bahamas next week. This model has trended south of the 06Z run. The UKMET shows some development with the feature near the Cape Verdes as it tracks west. Last, the ECMWF merges the two lows and track them west then northwest, reaching the Bahamas next Wednesday, similar to the GFS.
Each model shows some level of westward component to the wave and I will go with a track between the CMC and GFS/ECMWF. The reason being, there is a very strong subtropical ridge across the Atlantic and it is strengthening and expected to continue to build. This is likely going to track any feature almost due west. The feature (s) may find some weakness on the western edge of the high due to a vigorous trough that is expected to dip over the Eastern United States next week. However, I was looking that very same trough and it barely tracks across the Eastern CONUS to allow much curvature of any feature before reaching atleast the Bahamas, hence the GFS/ECMWF solutions.
So basically, we have a broad area of low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic centred on a few tropical waves that is not expected to develop in the near term, but should be watch in the long-term as they near the islands weekend. Regardless of development, increase in shower activity is most likely expected for the islands later this weekend and early next week.
Closer to home, the GFS continues to support development of a low pressure along the tail end of a frontal boundary across the Northern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday. The model has some support from the CMC and ECMWF, which tracks a low pressure from the Northern Gulf into the Florida Panhandle across the Southeast United States. I will continue to monitor this area, but regardless of development, increase in moisture expected for the Northern Gulf Coast and Southeast United States this weekend into next week.
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