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Watching The Caribbean
By: WPBHurricane05 , 12:29 AM GMT on May 27, 2009
Would keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea during the second week of June. GFS long range shows favorable conditions for a tropical storm to spin up. Yes its 2 weeks from now, but this area is a hot spot for June storms.
Figure 1. Low wind shear over most of the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Lots of moisture where the low shear is.
If development does occur, it's not necessarily a harbinger of an active season. We saw a June storm in this area during both the 2005 hurricane season , and the 2006 hurricane season.
Figure 3. Tropical Storm Arlene 2005 track.
Figure 4. Tropical Storm Alberto 2006 track.
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