Watching The Caribbean

By: WPBHurricane05 , 12:29 AM GMT on May 27, 2009

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Would keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea during the second week of June. GFS long range shows favorable conditions for a tropical storm to spin up. Yes its 2 weeks from now, but this area is a hot spot for June storms.


Figure 1. Low wind shear over most of the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Lots of moisture where the low shear is.

If development does occur, it's not necessarily a harbinger of an active season. We saw a June storm in this area during both the 2005 hurricane season , and the 2006 hurricane season.


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Arlene 2005 track.


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Alberto 2006 track.

Palm Springs Rainbow (WPBHurricane05)
1 of 3 rainbows in Palm Springs, Florida. Camera pointed toward the east.
Palm Springs Rainbow
Palm Springs Rainbow 2 (WPBHurricane05)
Two more rainbows in Palm Springs, Florida. This time the camera is facing the south.
Palm Springs Rainbow 2

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8. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:28 AM GMT on May 21, 2013
WPBHurricane05 has created a new entry.
7. LakeWorthFinn
4:53 AM GMT on June 07, 2009
Hello neighbor!
Nah, not up for Ana or any other named storms, we're getting enough rain without them. Good to see Lake Okeechobee and Lake Osborne being filled.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7284
6. WPBHurricane05
12:27 AM GMT on June 07, 2009
Added a picture of a rainbow.

Nother one comin soon.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
5. WPBHurricane05
10:51 PM GMT on June 03, 2009
bump
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
4. WPBHurricane05
11:31 AM GMT on June 01, 2009
Anyone up for rain and Tropical Storm Ana?

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
3. WPBHurricane05
11:28 AM GMT on June 01, 2009
Now I got agreement from the GFS, CMC, and the ECMWF.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2. WPBHurricane05
12:00 AM GMT on May 29, 2009
5/28 Update.

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GFS continues to show lower shear over most of the Caribbean.

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Doesn't show a real organized system, and I doubt it will this far out.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1. WPBHurricane05
9:12 PM GMT on May 27, 2009
Update as of the 5/27 12Z runs

GFS is still forecasting lower wind shear over the Caribbean.

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QuickPost

Moisture expected to be around the area during the period of low shear, but no surface low was forecast during this run.

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QuickPost

(Click for larger images)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112

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