Ernesto Downgraded To Tropical Storm

By: WCSC , 1:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2006

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Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane Sunday, however after spending most of the day over western Haiti, its was back to tropical storm status at the Sunday 5 PM update. It is very possible that Ernesto will regain hurricane status early Monday as the center of the storm moves back over open water. The expected track takes Ernesto northwest across Cuba, where it will once again weaken before emerging in the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. The storm is then expected to continue through the Gulf and once again become a hurricane before threatening the west coast of Florida. This track is subject to change as well as the intensity of Ernesto. We'll continue to update throughout the day on Monday.

Enhanced IR Floater - (Wunderground)

Atlantic VIS Floater - NOAA


Lets start with the path and first off you are going to notice a big change in the forecast path. Below is the latest model guidance plots:
Forecast Model Plots (SFWMD)

Below is the official 5-day track from the NHC:

Projected Forecast Path - NHC

Right now all we can do is watch and wait. As of this posting a worst case scenario for us is that we have a Category 1 or 2 hurricane in our coastal waters by Friday afternoon into Saturday. In this instance, timing is everything. If the trough causes Ernesto to turn sooner, it will move further away from the coast of the Carolinas but of the trough lags and turns it later, Ernesto could move parallel right along the coast or just inland. Either way, it does look like now that what was not going to be a problem for us is...and could be a big one. Review your hurricane safety plan now and make sure that you and your family are ready for what may come our way. We will have updates each morning and evening on all the Live 5 Newscasts as well as right here on the blog so check back often.

Other Graphics and Information:

For the latest forecasted shear click here.

RECON will continue to fly six hourly fixes today and they will be updated here as they arrive:
Air Force Recon Plan of the Day
Decoded RECCO Flight Level Observations
Latest Detailed VORTEX Recon Data

For offical advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center Click Here

Brad Miller
Live 5 Meteorologist

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8. peterkenneth
6:03 AM GMT on January 22, 2013
Outstanding piece of work , Thanks you for letting us know so much in detail !!
Member Since: January 18, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
7. palmettobug53
10:47 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
Ooooh, thanks, buckeye!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25530
6. buckeyefan1
8:26 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
Bug here is another one. Still looking for the best one!!
5. buckeyefan1
8:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
Here's another one Bug.
4. parkwest613
7:36 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
Palmettobug......I have tried to find SLOSH maps for Charleston County online without much success. I live in Mount Pleasant and the town's site has one for East of the Cooper but you can not expand it so it is not much good other than to show that a Cat 3 on a high tide would see much of the area I live in under some degree of water. I know they have the SLOSH maps at the Emergency Management Office in North Charleston. I live on a tidal creek and think that anyone near water should at least understand what they might expect. The surge from Hugo caught a lot of people off guard from Mount Pleasant north.
3. palmettobug53
7:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
I've been trying to find an online site that would give me the elevation for my neighborhood. I've wondered for some time just how far I could expect different heights in surge to come inland from the harbor, Ashley River and the surrounding tidal creeks. So far, I haven't had any luck. I'd love to know where I could find that info. Any tips?
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 240 Comments: 25530
2. gemni
6:53 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
i have to agree with do add to this area of knowledge!!and so does Tony!! i am sitting here in the fl panhandle, not trusting luck or shear to protect us from ANYTHING!! i admit upfront that i know NOTHING, but i am getting pretty good at figuring out what all the initials mean. oh, please, do keep your site current..i went thru opal/erin/ivan and sister went thru rita..we are scairt! I am so GLAD to see that folks will share thier expertise and knowledge with regular folks. After reading ms. margies' blog of katrina, i am petrified of possible storm surge here..i saw how high the water still was three days after ivan (!). Is there a place that could give me insight into our surge possibility? again, thank you..thank you all.
1. ncforecaster
5:19 PM GMT on August 27, 2006
Hey Chad,

This is the first time I have had the opportunity (pleasure of) to read one of your blogs/forecasts. In doing so, I simply wanted to convey my appreciation for a very through and well written blog. Moreover, I also wanted to express my general agreement with your forecast projections at the current time. In short, it is a definite blessing to have you here adding your own unique experience in order to help others stay safe.:) Thanks again and I hope you have a great rest of the weekend.:)

Most sincerely,
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1374

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