WCSC Hurricane Center


By: WCSC, 7:35 PM GMT on August 21, 2007


Dean made landfall this morning as a deadly catagory 5 hurricane and moved across the Yucatan Peninsula. Dean is now moving back across the water and will make a second landfall in Mexico probably as a catagory 2.

This storm continues to move around the bottom of a strong ridge that has protected the Southeast and Gulf Coast of the United States.

Elsewhere, we've been keeping an eye on a system north east of the Windward Islands, but at this point, it's not a major factor and upper winds are not that great for development.

We'll keep you posted on Dean with the very latest on the broadcast tonight along with the heat we're experiencing this week.

Back to school weather, the tropics and more...we'll see you later on tonight on LIVE 5 NEWS!!




By: WCSC, 7:47 PM GMT on August 20, 2007


Well it looks like DEAN will lash out at Mexico and Central America. We will not be impacted by this storm except for some rip currents along the beaches.

We are watching two tropical waves at the moment here in the Storm Center. One is east of the Bahamas and the other east of the Lesser Antilles. The one east of the Bahamas might become a depression in a few days seeing that the environment is getting better.

It is forecast to move west and, if it develops, would be much further north than Dean was. We'll keep a close eye on both.

Elsewhere, not expecting more development right away, but we're just now getting into the heart of the season and we'll be watching everyday.

Don't forget to make that family hurricane plan and be ready to put it into action should a storm try to come our way. The state has worked hard on new plans and hopefully, we won't have to use them!

Time to get ready for the broadcast and find some make-up. (That's the worst part of doing weather for TV....the make-up. It gets all over your shirts and ties!!!) Just a little inside tv for you on this Monday evening.

Bill Walsh



By: WCSC, 10:03 PM GMT on August 17, 2007


Well, this storm is going to be a mean one. The heat content of the sea ahead of the system and good outflow, shows that the models are correct when calling for a CAT IV.

The track thinking has not changed and looks reasonable. The GFDL is on the right side of the suite of models, which may actually varify if the low over Florida takes a little more time moving.

The entire Gulf coast is open for a strike from this powerful hurricane. It's too far to tell where it will make landfall. I think most of the folks down there will be watching this carefuly into the weekend and next week.

It is NOT a threat to our coast at this time. We've got thunderstorms again breaking out in the area and will cover this on all the shows tonight as well as a look at your weekend.

Have a great weekend.




By: WCSC, 8:52 PM GMT on August 15, 2007


Dean is getting stronger and could become our first major hurricane of the season!! This storm shows improved organization and a tightly wrapped center trying to form an eyewall.

Look for the low over the Bahamas to retrograde west and the ridge to fill westward which will keep Dean well to our south. Looks like a Caribbean storm and perhaps the Yukatan coast of Mexico.

Erin is trying to get better organized, but is elongated and mainly a big rain maker. It should make landfall somewhere across the Texas coast tomorrow as a tropical storm with 3-5 inches of rainfall for the folks that don't need anymore rain!

Busy night with showers and t-storms breaking out and a heat advisory, so we'll make this short. Thanks for checking in and we'll see you tonight on the broadcasts.




By: WCSC, 7:06 PM GMT on August 14, 2007


Once again we are watching Tropical Storm Dean this afternoon moving quicly west around 20 mph. The storm is forecast to slow down and intensify over the next couple of days.

Some of the models take it up to catagory II or III status, which given the envirnoment in 48 to 72 hours downstream, is not out of the question.

Track models have been all over the map. The GFS put the storm along the Midatlantic coast yesterday, the 06z run had it into South Florida and now the 12z has it headed towards Texas!!

Bottom line...it's too tough to tell, but some of the models are trending more south which is better news for South Carolina. It really will depend on the trough that is forecast to move across the US later this weekend and whether it cuts off and how far south Dean will be at that time. If it misses the trough and the ridge builds back west, Dean could be a Gulf storm. Time will tell.

Also watching a possible development in the Gulf. This system looks better today and outflow is set to be better with some warm water temps, look for this one to grow.

That's about it now. Time for a diet pepsi, some make-up and tonight's broadcast. I hope you can join us on TV or the web.



Tropical Storm Dean...

By: WCSC, 1:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2007


Tuesday is here and we are again watching the Atlantic as Tropical Storm Dean is headed west and a new area of concern is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. The morning tropical outlook video is below.

(Note: This is something new I am testing so it may stay or may go, still working on some bugs. I will put most of the info in the video and follow up with extra notes on the blog. Leave your comments and let us know.)

You never know what will happen overnight and what you will wake up to when it comes to the tropics. Luckily, when I walked in the office this morning around 4am, we still had a depression and not a storm...just yet! There is nothing more fun for a morning tv weather guy than having the NHC change things about ten minutes before air and you have to update and change a handful of maps it took half an hour to build! Ok..enough of the rant, on the the details at hand.

Image from WeatherUnderground.com

As you can see in the video and in the visible sat pic above, T.S. Dean is still in its formative stages. The morning pictures do show some moderate convection near or just to the south and west of the center of circulation. The overnight convection cycle has not changed much but is looking ok this morning. There is still a good bit of shear over the system, around 15 knots or so from the east, but that is forecast to lessen over the next 24-36 hours or so.

Dean is racing to the west at 21mph. The fast forward speed is another factor along with somewhat more temperate waters beneath it that are inhibiting strengthening at this time. Although both of the factors will improve later in the forecast period. The forward motion is expected to slow a bit as it approaches the Windward Islands later this week. Also, the water temperatures closer to the Islands is much warmer, which will provide a much better fuel source than the cooler water it is currently over.

So where does it go and how strong will it get? Thats a good question that I wish we could answer but right now your guess is just about as good as ours. Most of the global models to have a handle on the system now and the interesting note since the runs yesterday is the slight jog to the right near the end of the cycle. Most of the models yesterday took the storm into the central and northern Antilles.

Image from WeatherUnderground.com

The model plots above as you can see now take the system just to the northeast of the Virgin Island to near Puerto Rico by Sunday. The official NHC forecast looks to be a good consensus of the model output...for now. Do we expect it to shift again? You bet we do so this is why its important to watch model to model trends and not base your forecast on each model output as they will be different each and every time that far out.

As far as strength, once the shear drops off over the system and it moves over slightly warmer water, there is no reason why Dean should not begin to strengthen. The NHC forecast takes the storm to Category 2 status as it moves near the islands this weekend. The intensity models even hint at Category 3 or higher status beyond the 120 hour time frame but with the storm still going through the developmental stages, we will not bet on more than moderate gains in strength for now and agree with the NHC outlook.

So what does it mean for us here in the Low Country? Right now...not a thing! We are still a good nine days away from any effects to the mainland U.S. if at all. It is interesting to note the difference in model solutions from this time yesterday. At one point they took the storm into Mexico, then the next run took it to New England and the latest run of the GFS takes the storm inland around Myrtle Beach to Wilmington around the middle of next week. See why its so hard to forecast that far out!! The deal is that if the storm does re-curve later in the period into a weakness in the subtropical ridge, it will mean more of a threat to the East Coast of the U.S. If the ridge maintains its integrity, a bit more of a westward track would be expected and that would keep it on a track more toward the Caribbean and hopefully lessen the chance of a move toward the U.S. East Coast.

The bottom line is we are looking at a slowly strengthening tropical storm and a borderline major hurricane approaching the Windward Inlands this weekend. If your travel plans take you there later this week you need to keep a close eye on this storm.

The main point is that that for now its nothing to sweat for us here, but it is something to watch. Climatology favors an East Coast storm when you look at storms past. Everyone from New England to the Florida Keys has a reason to watch this one. You can bet we will be watching it for you.

More later today...

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Updated: 2:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2007


Watching Tropical Depression #4

By: WCSC, 9:55 PM GMT on August 13, 2007


We've got our first real tropical weather system that will make note this season developing in the Eastern Atlantic. I expect this to be named DEAN sometime tonight or tomorrow as it moves towards the west.

It's moving rather fast, but typical given it's position at such a low latitude and given the easterly shear it's undergoing.

The convection has been somewhat displaced to the west of the low level circulation as noted in the NHC discussion, but I would expect it to slow a bit in the 48 to 72 hour period which would favor some strengthing.

Two things in the future will drive this storm and they're both troughs that will move off the east coast into the next 9 days. Trough number one might steer the system slightly northwest vs west/northwest. Once it moves away, we'll see the trend more west until another trough moves east. The strength, timing and placement of this second trough will be critical in where this storm will go and whether it will be a threat to the U.S. and our area of South Carolina.

So...we're watching and plotting and will keep you updated. We're not getting the cots out yet, but everyone should note that the real season has begun and it only takes one; so we'll be ready here in the storm center for whatever Mother Nature brings our way. Thanks for watching...see you in a bit on TV.



Monday Noon Update.....

By: WCSC, 4:09 PM GMT on August 13, 2007

Our tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Depression #4 as of 11am EDT. The latest information from the National Hurricane Center puts the storm as a Category 2 Hurricane south of Puerto Rico at 120 hours out.

We will have more on the air and online at the Hurricane Center.

Click below as we Track the Tropics!


Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Updated: 4:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2007


Is Dean On The Way...

By: WCSC, 12:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2007

Monday, August the 13th and we are watching some interesting developments in the Tropics in the Caribbean and the eastern Atlantic. Neither are expected to affect the Lowcountry as of right now but we are watching with added interest.

First to the Caribbean:

The view above shows a fairly active tropical wave over the western Caribbean that is poised to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico during the day today. The forecast models do not do a lot with this system but our thinking is that the potential is there for this to develop into a depression as it moves toward the west into the western Gulf and the northern Bay of Campeche. It should not be any problem for us, but may be something for folks around Brownsville, TX to watch as we head toward the middle of the week. The large area of hot high pressure over the central and southern states will provide an impenetrable wall that will keep it on a westerly course.

On to what really has my attention, the strong wave/low over the eastern Atlantic:

A look at this picture shows a fairly well developed circulation over the eastern Atlantic, to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It looks to me this morning that we are very close to depression status. In fact the morning model runs do develop this into a significant system with the track just about due west toward the Lesser Antilles in a few days. Below is the latest model composites from Colorado State University. All the guidance is tightly clustered around a track that would take the system through the northern islands toward Friday or early Saturday.

Forecast Models for AL90CSU Tropical Models

Intensity Forecast for AL90
Intensity Forecast

The intensity foreacst from CSU shows a steady climb in strength to Tropical Storm and Hurricane status by the end of the forecast run. There is no reason I see now that this may become a major hurricane as the winds aloft are forecast to be very favorable and the latent heat content of the western Atlantic and Caribbean are plenty warm to support continued development.

We will keep an eye on developents through the day and hae updates over on the WCSC Live 5 Hurricane Center and here on the Live 5 WeatherBLOG.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Updated: 4:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2007


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