TD Two Fizzles ; Tropical outlook for the remainder of July

By: TylerStanfield , 9:13 PM GMT on July 22, 2014

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Tropical Depression Two
Almost exactly 24 hours after the genesis of our second tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season, we are talking about the demise of this little cyclone. The depression struggled throughout the night to maintain convection and has began to run ragged over the past 6 hours as the fast trade wind flow and dry air begin to take a toll on the fragile core of the storm. Recent satellite images show that the deep convection that it once had over the center has weakened and the circulation has become slightly exposed on the eastern side of the shallow convection. This weakening is coming at peak of Diurnal minimum where daytime heating is at it's greatest and can tend to disrupt smaller and weak systems like TD Two. The latest 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane center says that the depression remains at the same intensity of 35 Mph with a minimum central pressure of 1012 MB.

Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two.

The overall decrease in organization combined with conditions increasingly becoming less favorable should help to open up the system into a wave by Thursday. Though, the system is now moving over warmer sea surface temperatures, and you can never discount a small rally of strengthening during Diurnal maximum over the next 12 hours, the overall outlook of TD Two's survival is extremely low. Currently the NHC gives Tropical Depression Two a 20% chance of attaining tropical storm force winds before degenerating into an open wave in two to three days or sooner.

Figure 2. Tropical storm force wind probabilities map for Tropical Depression Two.

Forecast Track and Intensity for Tropical Depression Two

12 HRS: 35 mph
24 HRS: 30 Mph
36 HRS: 30 Mph... Remnant Low
48 HRS: Dissipated

Tropical Outlook for the Remainder of July
With the exception of Tropical Depression Two, there are no other tropical entities that pose a threat to develop over the next 48 hours. Though there isn't much to speak of in the short-term, the models are beginning to hint that activity may begin to pick as we end the month and into the month of August.

Figure 3 & 4. GFS Surface pressure and 10m wind speed forecast for hours 180 and 264.

The latest GFS and GEM resolutions predict that we could see another tropical wave emerge off of Africa in a couple of days and attempt to develop in about six to seven days. Though consistency hasn't been evident with this resolution, it will be worth watching. This new entity the models depict, whether it develops or not, gives us an indication that conditions may become more favorable as we near closer to the peak of the hurricane season as a pattern shift may occur in the month of August.

Thanks for reading! Questions and comments are encouraged.
I'll have another blog at a time I see fit.

Tyler Stanfield

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About TylerStanfield

Tyler Stanfield is a Tropical Weather and Climate Enthusiast. He is a student pursuing a career in Tropical Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.

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