August Daily Weather in Puerto Rico

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 10:15 AM GMT on August 01, 2013

Share this Blog
1
+

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR today as a weak through swings westward.Hazy conditions will be present for the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST THU AUG 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING IN SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL BREAK OVER THE LOCAL AREA
MID WEEK...IT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
STRETCH OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 32 DEGREES NORTH BY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE AT MID LEVELS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE BEING FOUND TODAY
AND NOT AGAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST TO FLORIDA
DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE CARRYING COPIOUS SAHARAN DUST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
EAST NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SOME MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED IN THIS
AIR DESPITE THE DUST CONTENT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY MOVED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING UP TO 1 INCH OF
RAIN IN A FEW PLACES IN THE LUQUILLO RANGE. SAN JUAN HAD ONE TENTH
INCH AT THE AIRPORT. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MADE POSSIBLE BY A BAND
OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN AREA OF DUST IS WELL
DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGES WITH THE DIFFUSE FORWARD BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED THE
FIRST VESTIGES OF DUST WILL BE ARRIVING MID DAY ON FRIDAY. THE
DUST IS PUNCHING WEST ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
ORIGINALLY THE DUST MOVED OFF OF THE SAHARA ON MONDAY AND WAS
SUFFICIENTLY DENSE TO COLOR THE WATER BROWN EVEN AT MIDDAY IN THE
PSEUDO COLOR IMAGES. AS IT REACHED THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CLEAN
FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST CIRCULATED INTO THIS
FLOW CREATING WEAKER CONCENTRATIONS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
NORTH WHICH HAPPENS TO BE AT OUR LATITUDE. HENCE THE FAIRLY THICK
DUST WE WILL SEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL NOT BE THE BEST
THIS AREA HAD TO DELIVER. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME MOISTURE WITH THIS LAYER...MAINLY AT LOWER LEVELS...HAVING
BEEN PICKED UP DURING ITS LONG JOURNEY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE GENERATED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE EPISODE...THOUGH MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN. AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH PREVIOUS DUST EPISODES
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERATED.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
ARRIVES. THIS WILL COME SOMEWHAT DIVIDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR EVENT. ALSO AT THIS
TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING ANY CYCLONES TO DEVELOP FOR US
IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT THROUGH THE FIRST DOZEN
DAYS OF AUGUST.

FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEE SOME WARMING DUE TO A SHIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE WIND FLOW AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER BEARING
MOISTURE BAND NOW MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ALONG MOST COASTS
WILL REACH THE 90S FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE
NORTHEASTERLY COME MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. TSTMS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY... CONDITIONS IMPROVING MARKEDLY HOWEVER A DENSE LAYER OF
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT LOWERING THE VSBYS.
LLVL WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY STEADY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 6 FEET
IN THE CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POCKETS OF 20 KNOTS LIKELY AROUND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. MARINERS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES THAT
MAY MAKE NAVIGATION BASED ON VISUAL SITING OF OBJECTS MORE THAN 7
MILES AWAY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 80 / 70 50 30 10
STT 88 79 90 81 / 70 50 40 20

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 85 - 35

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

85. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:04 AM GMT on September 02, 2013
Tropicsweatherpr has created a new entry.
84. Tropicsweatherpr
2:23 AM GMT on September 02, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LABOR
DAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
SEA MON-WED BRINGING SIG RAINS TO ERN PR AND USVI TUE-WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WX NEXT 12 HRS UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE H85 THETAE AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE MON WITH SCT AFTERNOON TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PR UNDER A NE STEERING FLOW.

BIG SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WILL BEGIN TO REACH ERN PR AND THE USVI
TUE MORNING WITH SIG FLOODING RAINS LIKELY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINS BUT BOTH PAINT A VERY
WET SCENARIO FOR ERN PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE USVI MID WEEK.
WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH 70W BY 12Z WED WITH WX LIKELY TO
IMPROVE BY LATE WED ACCORDING TO 18Z GFS AND GEFS GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH
ECMWF IS SLOWER BY 24 HRS WITH HEAVY RAINS LINGERING THRU THU.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 48W.
SOME GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRY TO DEVELOP THIS LOW. RIGHT NOW
CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED AND SFC OBS INDICATE BEST 24-HR PRES
FALLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LESSER ANTILES SO THIS SCENARIO DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING ATTM ABV FL040 ENSURES ISOLD
SHRA TONITE WL BE SHALLOW...VRY SLIM CHC OF MVFR ANYWHERE. MOISTURE
RETURNS MON AS MORE CONVECTION IS XPTD SPCLY OVR PR CORDILLERA TO SW
PR COAST. OBSCD MTNS WI IFR/MVFR POSBL IN AFT AT TJPS/TJMZ. WINDS
SFC-FL200 NE 10-20 KT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT MID WEEK WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
WAVE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 90 82 84 / 0 20 30 70
STT 82 89 82 83 / 10 10 60 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
83. Tropicsweatherpr
2:23 AM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 81. Vigilante:
Hello there. I also live in PR in Los Filtros Guaynabo/Bayamón. Have you tried our weather forums, but in Spanish? It's www.cycloforums.com. Btw, did you enjoy last night's lightning?

Att.
Fego


Glad to see you in my blog. Keep coming when you can.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
82. nydesertdweller
11:42 PM GMT on September 01, 2013
Quoting 81. Vigilante:
Hello there. I also live in PR in Los Filtros Guaynabo/Bayamón. Have you tried our weather forums, but in Spanish? It's www.cycloforums.com. Btw, did you enjoy last night's lightning?

Att.
Fego


Yes, I did enjoy last night lightning show, kind of strange with clear skies and stars overhead here on the south coast.

Sorry , I'm a Gringo , dont know much spanish ( speak or read) Just a few words but I get by so far after being here a year.( my wife translates for me since she was born here, LOL)

Thanks, Doug in Salinas
Member Since: September 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
81. Vigilante
2:44 PM GMT on September 01, 2013
Hello there. I also live in PR in Los Filtros Guaynabo/Bayamón. Have you tried our weather forums, but in Spanish? It's www.cycloforums.com. Btw, did you enjoy last night's lightning?

Att.
Fego
Member Since: August 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
80. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on September 01, 2013
Good morning. The weather in PR will be good today thru Monday with only a few showers. The TropiWave just east of Lesser Antilles will bring significant rain to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.Stay tuned for information about this situation.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...EARLY THIS MORNING LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT CROIX. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID
70S TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR
LESS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST
DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND SW PR BOTH DAYS.

A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...WITH
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SW PR...MAY
RESULT IN VCTS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS BETWEEN 01/17-21Z. 01/18Z
GFS SOUNDING SUGGESTS A 0-6KM AVG WIND OF 82/13KT. THIS FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER SW PR BETWEEN OF TJPS AND TJMZ.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE ENE LATER THIS MORNING. WND SPD
WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...AUGUST 2013 ENDED AS THE 4TH WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD
AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT(IST) IN SAINT THOMAS WITH 7.69 INCHES.
AUGUST 2011 CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT IST
WITH 9.14 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SUMMER 2013 (JJA) ENDED AS THE 2ND
AND 3RD WETTEST SUMMER ON RECORD AT LMM INTL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN
AND CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT IN SAN THOMAS WITH 32.89 AND 16.36 INCHES
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 77 / 20 20 20 50
STT 90 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
79. nydesertdweller
12:36 AM GMT on September 01, 2013
Thanks for the Update,
was able to wash my pickup finally today and keep my car clean for a few days straight......................with only a sprinkle a couple of days ..........Probally make it a few more till Tuesday/Wednesday's washout

See you next month as September Rain is Comming......

Doug in Salinas
Member Since: September 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
78. Tropicsweatherpr
9:52 AM GMT on August 31, 2013
Good morning. The weather this weekend will be relatively good in PR with only a few scattered showers.But the Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic will bring plenty of rain on Tuesday thru Wednesday so stay tuned for more information about that wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SAT AUG 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF TROUGH ALOFT (TUTT) WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS TODAY...AS WELL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

TUTT WILL SHIFT WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
EAST. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY.
THEREFORE...LESS SHOWER/THUNDER AREAL COVERAGE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL
WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHRA COULD MOVE
BRIEFLY OVER TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MVFR CIGS. BTWN 31/17Z-21Z...MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PR.
LLVL WINDS BLW FL100 WILL BE FM E TO ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 40 30 20 20
STT 89 81 92 81 / 40 40 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
77. Tropicsweatherpr
7:30 PM GMT on August 30, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST FRI AUG 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE. TUTT WILL FILL AND RETROGRESS THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN IT ALSO COMBINES WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BUT
LEFT VERY LITTLE RAIN AS IT PASSED. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED TO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER
OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THAT AREA DID GET AFFECTED BY PERSISTENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ALTHOUGH DECREASING SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 2
INCHES FOR THAT TIME ACCORDING TO THE GFS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE WAVE HAS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO IF THE WAVE CONTINUES AS IS BY THE TIME IT
GETS HERE...WHICH IT IS EXPECTED TO...WE MAY BE UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT DRIES AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...TSRA AT JBQ THRU 21Z WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH ONLY VCSH OR VCTS. SFC WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AND MAINLY FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY...LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 30 30 30 20
STT 80 89 81 92 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
76. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on August 30, 2013
Good morning. Tropical Wave moving thru PR today will bring scattered showers but all eyes continue to be towards the strong wave in Central Atlantic that may bring some squally weather to the islands early next week so stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST FRI AUG 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 66W WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLIFYING TUTT...DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
SPREADING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY...HOWEVER
LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

TUTT WILL SHIFT WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM
THE EAST. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE DRIEST DAY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY/LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
CANT BE RULED OUT BOTH DAYS. THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 47W...MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT TJMZ/TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ BTWN 30/17-21Z. WINDS BLW FL100 WILL REMAIN FM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 79 / 30 30 30 30
STT 90 80 89 80 / 30 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
75. VirginIslandsVisitor
12:07 AM GMT on August 30, 2013
Hi there!

Thanks for the updates. Heading out camping this weekend and hoping to get a little bit of good weather!

I've been told that the mosquitoes will be eating us alive though.

Have a great long weekend!

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 603
74. nydesertdweller
11:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2013
Thanks again for the updates,,,,,,Doug in Salinas
Member Since: September 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
73. Tropicsweatherpr
7:36 PM GMT on August 29, 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-033-061-127-292230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0032.130829T1924Z-130829T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN
CATANO

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 320 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. IN ADDITION...U.S.G.S RIVER
SENSOR INDICATED RIO PIEDRAS WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND CONTINUING
RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6605 1837 6604 1831 6605 1836 6618
1848 6611

$$

FC

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
72. Tropicsweatherpr
7:14 PM GMT on August 29, 2013
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

PRC081-131-141-292130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0242.130829T1835Z-130829T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
235 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...UTUADO AND SAN SEBASTIAN

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 234 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS...
AS WELL AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1833 6683 1832 6682 1832 6680 1830 6670
1826 6670 1823 6690 1826 6692 1826 6693
1831 6701 1838 6702

$$
RAM

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

PRC021-061-127-292100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0241.130829T1758Z-130829T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
158 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 156 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS WILL LEAD RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AS WELL
AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6604 1843 6603 1840 6599 1838 6600
1837 6604 1830 6605 1830 6608 1833 6609
1836 6619 1843 6616 1840 6611 1840 6610
1843 6611 1844 6610 1848 6612

$$
RAM

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
130 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

PRC003-011-083-093-097-117-292030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0240.130829T1730Z-130829T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MARICAO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
130 PM AST THU AUG 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MARICAO...LAS MARIAS...RINCON...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 128 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS...
AS WELL AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN...OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6713 1832 6713 1831 6707 1830 6704
1828 6703 1825 6693 1818 6695 1818 6718
1821 6717 1828 6720 1829 6723 1833 6726
1838 6726 1839 6724

$$

RAM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
71. Tropicsweatherpr
10:06 AM GMT on August 29, 2013
Good morning. Tropical Wave will move thru PR on Friday bringing plenty of shower activity. The following wave now in Central Atlantic will bring even more bad weather so stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST THU AUG 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER UNTIL TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH/TUTT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TUTT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN GENERAL...A WETTER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT. THEN...TYPICAL
WEATHER PATTERN WITH CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED DURING
THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED INLAND ACROSS
THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS RESULTED IN MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH MID MORNING. DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A SERIES OF
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE FIRST
WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR 58W THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND WAVE IS ALONG
42W. MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THE TWO
WAVES. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE SURGING LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN PHASE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PEAK AT 1.9 INCHES BETWEEN
30/00Z AND 30/18Z. AS A RESULT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEN...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 42W WILL REACH THE LOCAL
REGION BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THIS WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 29/17Z AND MAY CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TJMZ/TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST AFT 28/18Z. A
TROPICAL WAVE/INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WIND AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LABOR WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 78 / 40 30 40 30
STT 88 82 90 80 / 30 40 30 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
70. Tropicsweatherpr
8:00 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST WED AUG 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ALOFT.
EXPECT RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY ERODE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS TUTT NORTH OF
THE AREA DIGS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND BECOME
AMPLIFIED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE... A TROPICAL WAVE/INDUCED TROUGH WITH AXIS
NEAR 55 WEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY MOVED WEST LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THEREAFTER...THE TUTT IS TO BECOME AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AID IN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY...THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. ALL IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WETTER AND VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
DISTANT TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS TO REGION. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS
THE SHRA/TSRA LEAVES WESTERN PR AFTER 28/20Z. HOWEVER...VCSH ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED AFTER 29/16Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PR...LIKELY AFFECTING TJMZ/TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WIND OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 5 FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 20 40 30 40
STT 79 89 79 90 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
69. Tropicsweatherpr
7:58 PM GMT on August 28, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST WED AUG 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ALOFT.
EXPECT RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY ERODE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS TUTT NORTH OF
THE AREA DIGS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND BECOME
AMPLIFIED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE... A TROPICAL WAVE/INDUCED TROUGH WITH AXIS
NEAR 55 WEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY MOVED WEST LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR.

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THEREAFTER...THE TUTT IS TO BECOME AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AID IN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY...THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. ALL IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WETTER AND VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
DISTANT TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS TO REGION. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS
THE SHRA/TSRA LEAVES WESTERN PR AFTER 28/20Z. HOWEVER...VCSH ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED AFTER 29/16Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PR...LIKELY AFFECTING TJMZ/TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WIND OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 5 FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 20 40 30 40
STT 79 89 79 90 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
68. Tropicsweatherpr
11:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2013
Good morning. It looks like rainy pattern will establish in the next few days as Troughs and Tropical Waves move thru. Still watching the wave in Central Atlantic.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST WED AUG 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...A TUTT WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...PERSISTING NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 51W
THIS MORNING WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN GENERAL...
A WETTER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE TUTT RELOCATES AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION
AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR DATA SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS MOVED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION. A MOISTURE BAND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AFTER 12Z TODAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING WILL ALSO HELP
TO THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE BAND WILL
PEAK TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DECREASES
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. MODELS TENDS TO A WETTER
SOLUTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A TUTT ALOFT
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

LONG RANGE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA.
MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...NHC...IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT AT TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE SHRA/TSRA LIKELY AFTER
28/17Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WIND AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET CAN
BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 78 / 20 20 40 30
STT 89 82 90 82 / 30 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
67. nydesertdweller
12:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2013
Thanks for the Update, not enough rain to stop work on the farm today though.....:(

Doug in Salinas, P.R.
Member Since: September 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
66. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on August 27, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST TUE AUG 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL
AREA EXCEPT FOR A WEAK TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA
AND BREAKS UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPC0MING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE AREA
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACTUALLY
INCREASED AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RADAR
SHOWED OVER AN INCH FELL IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WAS NOT OBSERVED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS WERE SEEN DURING THE
PREVIOUS EVENING.

THE GFS IS SHOWING AN ABRUPT DRYING THIS MORNING...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAD DROPPED TO 1.8 INCHES AT SAINT CROIX AS OF ABOUT 2 AM
AST INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR WAS ARRIVING. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT AND BOTH THE GFS AND WRF MODELS WERE
INDICATING POCKETS OF 2 PLUS INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
LINGERING OVER OR NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS LATE AS 27/18Z. ALSO
THE NAM5 WAS SHOWING POPS OF OVER 85 PERCENT IN BOTH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED
POPS OVER THE ISLAND TO UP TO 50 PERCENT TO REFLECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NOTE ALSO THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
THE INFRA RED IMAGERY AND MOVING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME
AS FURTHER INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT END QUICKLY.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT IT ALSO REBOUNDS IN
TIME FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THEN
AFTER A SLIGHT DIP...MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVER WEDNESDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
END ON THURSDAY AS DRYING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE...EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...TAKES PLACE. THE WEEKEND THEN APPEARS
TO BE RELATIVELY MOIST.

FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY SET TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN NEXT
WEEK...THE LATEST RUN...27/00Z...SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE...OR
PERHAPS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO BRINGS MOISTURE TO THE AREA AFT 04/00Z...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING
STRONG GUSTS OF COURSE...AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THEN. THE ECMWF 27/00Z RUN SHOWS A SIMILAR STRENGTH SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHWEST OVER 20 NORTH 60 WEST WITH NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE MODELS SHOULD RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITHIN 3
TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SOLUTIONS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO AND CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AT TJSJ
AND TJPS AND MN OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. AFT 27/16Z...AREAS OF
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER W PR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AT
TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AFTER
27/16Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST SEAS MAY REACH 6 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY IN LOCAL OUTER WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 60 30 30 30
STT 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 40 30

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
65. Tropicsweatherpr
7:23 PM GMT on August 26, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON AUG 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND ESPECIALLY
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE. SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z TUE WITH SHARP
DRYING EXPECTED TOMORROW. 800 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY
LARGE GREATER THAN 15C AND LYR REL HUM ARE VERY LOW...SO I REDUCED
CLOUDS AND POPS SIGNFICANTLY FOR TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLD CVRG OUT WEST.
UNEVENTFUL WED-THU WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W WILL REACH THE AREA FRI
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR FRI AND SAT.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W HAS A 30% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT
IN NEXT FIVE DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEXT TUE SEP 03. MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER BUT ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK
TROPICAL STORM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PR. THIS WAVE OR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIG RAIN MAKER.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 26/22Z OVER THE
LOCAL TERMINALS...LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST/TISX AND TJSJ AS
THEY PASS BY...SO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPO
LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING BUT THERE ARE SHRA/TSRA
JUST EAST OF THE USVI. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS TONIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 27/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NMRS TSRA TONIGHT OVER
BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER
IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 91 / 60 10 10 10
STT 79 90 80 89 / 50 0 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
64. Tropicsweatherpr
7:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2013
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST MON AUG 26 2013

PRC021-061-127-137-262115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0239.130826T1824Z-130826T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
224 PM AST MON AUG 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 220 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS LINE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1842 6616 1842 6615 1837 6604 1832 6605
1838 6620 1840 6621 1840 6624 1845 6624
1846 6622

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
63. Tropicsweatherpr
9:28 AM GMT on August 26, 2013
Good morning. A Tropical Wave is moving thru PR today bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST MON AUG 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL
AREA WITH WINDS AT 250 MB GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE BETWEEN 20 AND
30 NORTH LATITUDE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. A TROUGH
IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL WATERS ARE PEPPERED WITH SMALL SHOWERS THAT
LEAVE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WHEN THEY MOVE OVER LAND IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT LIKELY HAS ALREADY PASSED
SAINT CROIX OWING TO THE VEERING WINDS THERE. SAN JUAN RECEIVED
0.15 INCH DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AND CONTRIBUTE TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS AGAIN SEEN ON FRIDAY. IN FACT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PATCHY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK INCREASING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT WAVE.

THE GFS HAS DEVELOPED TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN EACH OF THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS` RUNS...BUT IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH OF
THOSE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE AFRICA THIS WEEK
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN SHIFTING
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN. THE LATEST MODEL RUN...THAT OF 26/00Z...SHOWS
ONLY A WEAK LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THE DAY AFTER LABOR
DAY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS LOW STRONGLY AND SHOWS IT
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE SAME TIME FRAME.
THEREFORE IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONCLUDE ANYTHING ABOUT A TROPICAL
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BEYOND SATURDAY AND THE FORECAST
WAS NOT ALTERED. OTHER LOWS CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE 10 DAY PERIOD IN THIS MODEL RUN...BUT THE
NEXT ONE IS CURRENTLY TURNING NORTHWEST IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TNCM AND
TKPK. AFTER 26/12Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO A SFC TROUGH PASSING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ALSO PR AFT 26/14Z. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AT LEAST UNTIL TONIGHT.
ALSO...AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 26/16Z OVER W PR
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR AT TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM
THE ENE AT 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH AND ARE MAINTAINING
SEAS OF AT LEAST 5 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS
EXPECTED TODAY IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 91 / 40 40 30 30
STT 79 90 80 89 / 60 60 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
62. Tropicsweatherpr
9:57 AM GMT on August 25, 2013
Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR today thru Monday as a Tropical Wave moves by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SUN AUG 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE
LOCAL AREA AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WATERS
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND IS BEGINNING TO SEND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A GENERALLY MOIST AIR
MASS PREVAILS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
GENERATED BY A PERSISTENT HIGH IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST FIRST APPEARED IN
THE WATERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX EARLY LAST NIGHT AND ARE NOW
WIDELY SCATTERED IN A BAND BETWEEN SAINT CROIX AND MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
SOUTH OF CABO ROJO. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE MORNING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND DOWN STREAM FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE NAM5 MODELS SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM
EL YUNQUE TO HORMIGUEROS WITH A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CURRENTLY THE NAM ALSO SHOWS
MOISTURE MOVING INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
BOOSTED POPS TO CORRESPOND. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE AREA UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND
27/06Z...BUT BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PUFF
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND AID SHOWER PRODUCTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MODEL FORECASTS BEYOND THIS WEEK HAVE BEEN TOO
INCONSISTENT TO DRAW ANY SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
SHOWING INCREASED TROPICAL ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THIS MRNG XCP POSSIBLE/BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA
TNCM/TKPK/TISX. AREAS OBSCD MTNS AFT 25/16Z ACRS W PR IN SHRA/TSRA
WI CHC MVFR AT TJMZ. INCR TSRA LATE TONITE/MON IN TROPICAL WAVE.
WINDS BLO FL100 E 16-28 KT BCMG 12-20 TONITE/MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR AREAS OF WINDS EXCEEDING 17 KNOTS IN
THE EXPOSED WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 30 60 60 30
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 60 60 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
61. Tropicsweatherpr
10:15 AM GMT on August 24, 2013
Good morning. Good weather is expected today in PR with only a few afternoon showers in the interior with some haze.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST SAT AUG 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST AND COVERS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIPPLES AND MOISTURE
FOLLOWING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AND ONE MOVED ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AIRPORT LEAVING 0.04 OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. OTHERWISE IT WAS DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE 24/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED DRYING MID LAYERS WITH SOME INCREASE IN
THE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 1 AND 15 KFT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA BUT EXPECT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM DUE TO BETTER HEATING UNDER CLEARER SKIES. THE GFS FORECAST
INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT THE NAM SHOWED A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER A LINE FROM THE LUQUILLO RANGE TO HORMIGUEROS...AND
SO TOOK A MID WAY POSITION BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST MODELS AND
SPECIFIED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTHWEST INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING STILL SHOWED DECENT CAPE OF
3370 J/KG AND A MINUS 5.6 LIFTED INDEX EVEN IF FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HIGHER THAN MINUS 6. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
SOUTHERLY ABOVE 20 KFT. THE 23/18Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD GOOD
DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR FROM 24/18-25/00Z...BUT THIS IS DELAYED
IN THE LATEST RUN TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHICH MAY THEN HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT. IF THIS DIVERGENCE RE-DEVELOPS...AND THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE STRONGER AND SOME
LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING COULD OCCUR. MORE MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND AREAS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LATE MORNING
EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA IN AND AROUND TIST AND TISX AND AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 24/18Z...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS
GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO 6 FEET
IN SOME OUTER WATERS AND WINDIER LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 80 90 81 / 30 10 10 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
60. Tropicsweatherpr
7:05 PM GMT on August 23, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST FRI AUG 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA CHANNEL WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD
HISPANIOLA OVER THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SAT AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVR PR WILL DISSIPATE BY
THIS EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS (SAL) MOVING IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MON AFTERNOON AND TUE AND WILL BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL STAY SOUTH OVR THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SO DON`T THINK THIS WAVE
POSES ANY SERIOUS THREAT OF FLOODING.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT STILL WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OVR PR HAVE GENERATED MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND WILL IMPROVE AFT 23/22Z. EXPECT VFR CONDS PR AFT
24/02Z. A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SE WILL BRING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCT LOCATIONS IN THE LEEWARD AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGG
24/02Z AT TKPK...TNCM AND 24/06-08Z AT TISX...TIST. CONDS IMPROVING
AFT 24/12Z. LLVL WINDS E 10-20 KTS INCRG AFT 24/06Z TO 15-25 KTS
JUST ABV THE SFC TO 15 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SCT TSRA OVER MONA
CHANNEL THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 79 90 / 10 10 10 10
STT 80 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
59. Tropicsweatherpr
5:58 PM GMT on August 23, 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC061-127-139-231945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0031.130823T1745Z-130823T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
145 PM AST FRI AUG 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN
TRUJILLO ALTO

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 139 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

IN ADDITION THE RIVER GAGE AT RIO PIEDRAS METRO RPEP4 WAS
APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE AT 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6611 1843 6609 1842 6604 1833 6601
1833 6608

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
58. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on August 23, 2013
Good morning. A mainly good weather pattern will prevail this weekend in PR with some hazy conditions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST FRI AUG 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
FILLING. MEANWHILE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PRESENT SCENARIO ALOFT IS MAINTAINING
A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND THIS WAS HELPING
TO ENHANCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SINKS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN FROM THE
EAST ACCOMPANYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL
WAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR 53 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO CROSS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. SO FAR IT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL AND
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN DOING SO...
EXPECT THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE REGION AND HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUED TO FORECAST A RAPID DECREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS REGION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO REACH
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
BASED ON THE PRESENT STEERING FLOW. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF BUT SO FAR NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BETWEEN 23/10Z TO 23/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USVI...
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ AND ACROSS
THE FLYING TERMINALS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER 23/18Z
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO...INDUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AFTER
23/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST UP TO 20 KNOTS...
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL.HOWEVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
TODAY DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS...AND ALSO
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 79 / 40 20 20 20
STT 90 80 90 81 / 50 30 30 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
57. Tropicsweatherpr
7:41 PM GMT on August 22, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL MEANDER OVER PUERTO RICO UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. THEN...THE TUTT WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...AN INDUCED
TROUGH/EASTERLY PERTURBATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR DATA SHOWED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AS THEY PASSED ACROSS THOSE
AREAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN ONE TO
THREE INCHES. HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCE
TROUGH...GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A TUTT LOW ALOFT COMBINED
TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING... GIVING THE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INDUCED TROUGH AND THE TUTT LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THESE FEATURES
PULL AWAY...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...REACHING THE MINIMA ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL TO RESULT
IN A MINIMA IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...WE ARE
LOOKING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH
SHALL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AT JSJ THROUGH 21Z...THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING EVERYWHERE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW WITH SOME DUST HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. TSTMS OVER
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 90 / 40 40 20 20
STT 79 89 81 92 / 50 50 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
56. Tropicsweatherpr
10:52 AM GMT on August 22, 2013
Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today as a trough moves nearby. A dry weather pattern will arrive by the weekend with hazy conditions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
THE REGION...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING...SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS...EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH AN EMBEDDED
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL PRODUCE HAZY
SKIES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OR
TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FOUR OR FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. FM 22/06Z-22/13Z
PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA PSBL EN ROUTE AND VCNTY TJSJ...TISX...
AND TIST. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS. BTW 22/17Z-22/22Z
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER CTRL AND W INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND
MAINLY ON LEE SIDE OF THE USVI. THE ACTIVITY WILL STEER WNW TOWARDS
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT... PDS OF AFTN
MVFR/IFR ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. MOSTLY VFR CONDS
AFT 22/22Z. LLVL WINDS GENERALLY FM E 10-20 KTS BLO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 89 81 / 40 30 30 10
STT 88 79 90 81 / 40 50 50 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
55. Tropicsweatherpr
7:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FILL DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THEN...A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...AN EASTERLY
PERTURBATION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THE CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL HEATING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...DELAYING THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE ACROSS THE ISLAND. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER MAYAGUEZ...ANASCO...RINCON...AGUADA
AND RINCON EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF TODAY...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND.

MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE APPROACHING THE ISLAND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN
OVERALL "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT TJMZ
WHERE AN ISOLATED TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 21/20Z.
AFT 22/06...SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TISX AND TIST MAY CAUSE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. LLVL WINDS FM ESE 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 80 88 / 40 40 30 30
STT 79 89 80 91 / 40 40 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
54. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2013
Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
THE WAVE MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER WESTWARD
TODAY...LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A DRYING AIR MASS AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO ONLY THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OR TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOV W ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BTW PR AND THE NRN
LEEWARDS AT LEAST TIL 21/13Z. SOME SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR
CAUSING BRIEF MVFR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND SCT-BKN LOW/SCUD LYR CLDS
BTW FL018-FL070. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL OVR ERN PR. AFT 21/16Z
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER CTRL AND W PR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE USVI.
THIS WILL BRING PDS OF MVFR/IFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ. MSTLY VFR CONDS AFT 21/21Z. LLVL
WINDS FM ESE 15-25 KTS BLO FL200 THEN BCMG WLY ABV FL250.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 87 80 / 40 30 50 20
STT 89 79 88 81 / 40 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
53. Tropicsweatherpr
7:39 PM GMT on August 20, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRED DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. AS 2 PM AST...THE
WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WAS WITHOUT ANY RAIN. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS THE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVE WEATHER...AS THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION...VERY DRY AIR...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHICH COULD INHIBIT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATED A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO DURING THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...OTHER THAN THE NORMAL AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALL PR AND USVI TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AFT 20/22Z...
SHRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TISX AND POSSIBLE TJPS. SE WINDS
EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 88 / 50 50 30 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 60 60 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
52. Tropicsweatherpr
6:23 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
130 PM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

PRC029-069-077-085-103-129-151-202030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0229.130820T1730Z-130820T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
130 PM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...
YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 128 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AND RAPID RISES
ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6583 1828 6582 1822 6567 1818 6571
1817 6573 1816 6572 1815 6574 1815 6576
1811 6577 1802 6585 1818 6599 1830 6589

$$

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
51. Tropicsweatherpr
10:00 AM GMT on August 20, 2013
Good morning. A mostly rainy day is instored for PR and adjacent islands as deep moisture moves thru the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO SINK FURTHER SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TUTT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
UPPER RIDGE WHICH NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AND LOCAL REGION FROM THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS...AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW CROSSING THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH...AND
INDUCED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL TO MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ITCZ CONTINUED ITS NORTHWARDS
MODULATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT OVERALL
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

STILL LOOKING FOR A GRADUALLY DRIER WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER PRESENT MODELS ALL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SO FAR FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AN EVEN DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BUT THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS EACH DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AFTER 20/14Z. EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER 20/16Z SHRA/TSRA AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TAF SITES. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TIL AT LEAST 20/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOT AFTER 20/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFO...PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUED BY WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 80 / 60 50 50 30
STT 89 79 89 80 / 70 60 60 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
50. Tropicsweatherpr
7:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DIGGING TUTT
ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 67W
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST TONIGHT...AS
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 67W CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO/USVI.

TUTT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED TROUGH/
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRADES...RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE
BOTH DAYS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...EXPCT
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
TJMZ. WIND MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE....MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 79 87 / 40 60 60 60
STT 79 89 79 89 / 70 70 70 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
49. Tropicsweatherpr
10:08 AM GMT on August 19, 2013
Good morning. Rain is the word of order for today thru Wdnesday in PR and adjacent islands as a Tropical Wave interacting with a TUTT trough will bring the inclement weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TUTT
REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. THE TUTT IS TO THEN
SINK SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION AND A BROAD TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 64 WEST NOW
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD EQUATORIAL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ANOTHER
TUTT INDUCED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NOW NEAR
59 WEST APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. UNDER THE PRESENT WIND
FLOW EXPECT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED BUT NOT LIMITED
TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO INCLUDE
PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY.

AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN OVERALL WET WEATHER PATTERN TO
DOMINATE THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. SO FAR...BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL...THE MOST ACTIVE DAY SHOULD STILL BE ON TUESDAY DUE TO
MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. FOR THIS REASON...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...
AND THEN AROUND TIST/TISX AS WELL AS TJSJ AFTER 19/10Z. ISOLD/SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY CAUSE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR TJMZ AFTER
19/17Z WHERE TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. WIND FROM THE EAST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 19/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 6 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THE
LATER IN THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 2.35 INCHES WAS SET ON
SUNDAY 18TH AUGUST AT HENRY E. ROHLSEN AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD
OF 1.32 SET IN 1994.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 88 79 / 60 40 60 60
STT 89 79 89 79 / 50 70 70 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
48. Tropicsweatherpr
7:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TUTT ESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 61 WEST WILL MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER LAND AREAS AROUND SUNSET. ALTHOUGH...DRIER AIR IS
MOVING IN AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG 61 WEST...MOVES MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT NEAR 5 KNOTS. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...
TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ENHANCING
MOISTURE ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

THE WAVE PASSAGE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD IN
ISOLATED AREAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS...WITH VCSH...EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
LOCAL TERMINALS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES THIS AFT.
HOWEVER...NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU 18/21Z CAUSING SHORT PDS OF MVFR. SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE ENE WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 18 KT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 2.73" AND 2.27" WAS
SET TODAY AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/IST AND HENRY E. ROHLSEN
AIRPORT/ISX RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AUGUST 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE 5TH WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT IST WITH 6.62" ACCUMULATED
SO FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 80 87 / 50 50 40 60
STT 81 89 81 89 / 50 50 70 70

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
47. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on August 18, 2013
Tropical Wave interacting with TUTT trough will bring plenty of rain to PR today thru Wednesday. Invest 94L in far Eastern Atlantic has to be watched in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA
LATER TODAY AS TUTT ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 60W WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF PR MONDAY THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE OVR THE USVI WILL MOVE ACROSS PR LATER
TODAY AND YIELD NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW PR THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF TROPICAL
WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BUILD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...ERN
PR AND THE USVI AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS HAS
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONTINUITY FROM PAST FEW DAYS
INDICATING CLOUDINESS AND DEEP SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FOR SVRL
DAYS. STRONGLY BELIEVE THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT SHOWS A SPURIOUS H5 LOW AND VORT MAX...A
BULL`S EYE IN PRECIP MAXIMUM AND VERY DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS FOR
A PERIOD TOO LONG. THEREFORE...HAVE IGNORED ITS SOLUTION AND GONE
WITH THE ECMWF. STILL THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME SIG RAINFALL
TO OCCUR BUT MAINLY ON TUE WHEN BEST INTERACTION WITH WAVE AND
TUTT ARE EXPECTED.

DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON WED BASED ON THE ECWMF AND PREVIOUS
FCSTS FROM THE GFS AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED THU-SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER. AGAIN THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND ITS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY IGNORED.

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF OF AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY
IS NOW BEING MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK. ASCAT AND OSCAT
PASSES FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT RESPECTIVELY SHOW THIS WAVE
HAS A WELL DEFINED SFC CIRCULATION BUT THE CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED ATTM. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN A FVRBL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND FAR SOUTH OF THE SAL. SINCE THIS IS A LARGE WAVE AND
LOCATED PRETTY FAR SOUTH IT WILL TAKE SVRL DAYS FOR THIS WAVE TO
ORGANIZE BUT I EXPECT THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVR USVI...AND EN ROUTE
TO ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. AFTER
18/12Z...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. SFC WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS PR AND EASTERLY AT 10 KTS
OR LESS ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS FROM THE ENE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 18/13Z. INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER 18/16Z WHICH
COULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR TJMZ AN TJPS AS WELL AS CAUSE MTN TOP OBSCR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER
IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 30 50 50 40
STT 89 81 89 81 / 60 50 50 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
46. Tropicsweatherpr
4:02 AM GMT on August 18, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AT PRESENT ARE NOT MOVING TOWARD EITHER
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO HAVE
FORMED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ARE STRETCHED FROM LOIZA TO THE
WESTERN TIP OF FAJARDO. THE 18/00Z SOUNDING HAS COME IN WITH
EXACTLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6.8.
THIS IS UNSTABLE FOR SURE BUT IS OFFSET BY WEAK NEGATIVE ENERGY AT
THE LOWEST LEVELS AND ONLY MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH
500 MB. SOME BOUNDARIES FORMED BY STRONG CONVECTION THAT BOILED
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE
AT THIS TIME THE 70 TO 95 PERCENT POP CALLED FOR IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS BY THE NAM-5 APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE. THEREFORE VERY FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS. CHIEF AMONG THOSE WAS TO ADD
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE TO BE HAD THOSE DAYS
COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD LIGHTNING SHOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
MARINE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY NORMAL SUMMER
EVENING HERE. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST OF WHICH IS ALREADY FACTORED INTO THE
FORECAST. NAAPS PRODUCT ALSO SHOWING THE SAHARAN DUST HAS
DIMINISHED ALMOST COMPLETELY OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND THIS SHOULD
BE A FACTOR IN FAVOR OF BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE THIS WEEK.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
45. Tropicsweatherpr
7:16 PM GMT on August 17, 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO EXTENT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/GREATER ANTILLES AND
THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST WILL
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO RESULT IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATER...
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME WETTER AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG 57
WEST...MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE AND TUTT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTENT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE GREATER ANTILLES/BAHAMAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

THE WAVE PASSAGE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOKING
LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD IN ISOLATED AREAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD WITH SOME VCSH INTO
EVE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ...BTWN
17/1930Z-23Z. AT TNCM AND TKPK...TSRA OR VCTS AT THESE TAF SITES
THRU THE PRD. SFC WIND MAINLY FROM E AT 10-20 KTS BL0 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP 18 KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH INCLEMENT WEATHER
ALL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 79 88 / 50 50 40 40
STT 82 89 81 89 / 50 50 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
44. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on August 17, 2013
Good morning. Next Tropical Wave will bring plenty of rain to the islands and that wet period begins on Sunday as it interacts with a trough.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER PR TODAY AND MOVE
INTO HISPANIOLA SUN AFTERNOON. TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AND WARMER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WITH SIG LESS SHRA CVRG THAN YDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 54W WILL ENTER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WITHIN THE ITCZ. SINCE EMBEDDED
MOSTLY IN THE ITCZ NO TC DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WAVE
TO BRING SVRL DAYS OF ACTIVE WX SUN-TUE WITH TUE LOOKING LIKE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY WHEN MODELS SHOW BEST INTERACTION WITH BEST 850 MB
VORTICITY AND DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTH.

WX BEGINS TO IMPROVE ON WED AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ESTABLISHES OVR
THE AREA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN START LOOKING MORE LIKE SEP
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLC AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

NICE LOOKING WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON TROF EXITED
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE ORIGINATED FROM A LARGE
MCS OVR WEST AFRICA AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF 10N. THIS
WAVE HAS SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE TROUGH AND
HAS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD
CANDIDATE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY IN THE NEXT 5-10
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. LOCALLY ISOLATED
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ SURROUNDING WATERS. MTN TOP
OBSCR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MORNING OVR ERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING SHRA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ...BTWN 17/1730Z-23Z. SFC E WIND UP TO 10 KTS
TIL 17/13 THEN SFC WIND MAINLY FROM E AT 10-20 KTS BL0 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP 20 KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH INCLEMENT WX ALL
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 82 88 76 / 10 50 50 40
STT 89 82 89 81 / 30 50 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
43. Tropicsweatherpr
7:08 PM GMT on August 16, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MOVING
QUICKLY...WHICH LIMITED THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
WEEKEND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 50
WEST LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ITCZ WHICH WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDING ARE INDICATING PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KM LAYER. THESE FACTORS...WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BETWEEN MONDAY AD WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK. KEEP INFORMED ON LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THIS
SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
PR AND USVI TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 17/00Z...AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AFT 17/00Z...MOSTLY VFR
WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BTW 10 AND 20KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 89 81 89 / 50 30 30 30
STT 82 90 82 89 / 50 30 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
42. Tropicsweatherpr
10:07 AM GMT on August 16, 2013
Good morning. A Trough interacting with a Tropical Wave will bring scattered showers to the PR area today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD TO
BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SFC TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED NEXT MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF TROF AXIS
IS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND CIRA LPW PRODUCTS AND EXTENDS UP TO
ABOUT 600 MB PER LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA. EXPECT MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AS CYCLONIC
VORTICITY AND OROGRAPHICS ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF PR. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES IS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AROUND 21Z.

WX IMPROVES OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT LESS SHOWER CVRG AND MAINLY CONFINED TO WRN PR.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 47W WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MON AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA TO BRING UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A SIG DRYING
COMMENCES WED NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE DY6 WED AND DISSIPATE ON DY7 THU ACCORDING TO
OFFICIAL NHC/WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH TILL 16/12Z MAINLY NE TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK...
TJBQ/TJMZ. PASSING SHRA MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCR
WITH LOW CIGS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER PR/USVI...SHRA/TSRA
WILL INCREASE...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BTWN 16/15Z-21Z
MAINLY AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX...HOWEVER TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED AT
TJMZ/TJBQ. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE E-NE BTW 5 AND 15KTS...
THEN AFT 16/12Z AT 10 TO 20KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SFC TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS BUT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 81 / 80 50 30 30
STT 89 82 90 82 / 70 30 30 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
41. Tropicsweatherpr
7:26 PM GMT on August 15, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH NO
THREAT TO LAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AFFECTED SAINT CROIX...AND BEGAN TO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A VERY ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST STARTING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
PER LATEST NHC FORECAST...ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...STAYING WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT SW PR PROB NOT REDUCE CONDS AT
TJMZ/TJPS. SCT SHRA/TSRA INCR TONITE MAINLY TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK...
SOME WI MVFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO CAUSE PDS OF MVFR MOST
TAFS FRI AFT. WINDS BLO FL150 ENE 16-27 KT BCMG E ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 20 80 50 40
STT 82 90 82 90 / 40 60 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
40. Tropicsweatherpr
10:35 AM GMT on August 15, 2013
Good morning. A rainy pattern will start on Friday with a series of troughs and Tropical Waves moving thru the area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI.
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST
OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT
AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR
UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W.
THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST
PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER
06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS
THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY.

MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH
ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5
TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT
WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW
SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE
INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10
TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50
STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
39. Tropicsweatherpr
10:21 AM GMT on August 14, 2013
Good morning. Good weather will prevail until Friday when a Tropical Wave will arrive bringing increasing chances of rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST WED AUG 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BUILD OVR
PR LATER TODAY THEN MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA THU. TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY QUIET TODAY AND THU UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT. STILL HOWEVER CAN`T
RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST PR TODAY AND SOUTHWEST PR
THU AS STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODIS AQUA AOD
PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS SOME SAHARAN DUST HAZE ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC ATTM AHEAD OF FRIDAY`S WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT AMOUNT OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND HIGH PW
AIR AS ANALYZED BY GFS AND AS SEEN BY BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL START REACHING ERN PR AND THE USVI
FRI MORNING AND COULD GENERATE SOME SQUALLY WX AS IT ENTERS SAL
OVER PR. WAVE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS FRI
ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI.

THINGS QUIET DOWN A BIT SAT-SUN BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE AND UNDER
BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN TURNING WETTER LATE MON AND TUE
AS ANOTHER WAVE (INVEST 93L) INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TUTT. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE BECOMING A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY
ALSO SHOW WAVE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE DUE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
AND STRONG SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT. ANOTHER WAVE STILL OVR
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT HAS A LOT MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BECOME A
STRONGER TC IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING WITH INVEST 93L BUT OVERALL
TREND IS FOR MORE ACTIVE WETTER PATTERN EARLY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR POSBL WED AFT BTWN 14
/17Z-21Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VRB UP TO 6 KT AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJMZ AND TJBQ...THEN
AFT 14/12Z E-ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS BLO 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SQUALLY WX
POSSIBLE FRI WITH ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. SCEC`S IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 81 83 81 / 20 10 10 70
STT 83 82 82 81 / 10 10 10 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
38. Tropicsweatherpr
2:34 AM GMT on August 14, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

.UPDATE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACCOMPANYING A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...BASED ON THE PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THAT
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT AS WELL
AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
37. Tropicsweatherpr
8:52 PM GMT on August 13, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. SOME SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AROUND 2 PM AST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS
SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA
OF DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BOTH
DAYS...MAINLY ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS SHOWS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS WE
ENTER THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SRA DEVELOPMENT...AFFECTING THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...TJMZ AND TJBQ THRU 13/22Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS AT
TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES
WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT 10-20 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 91 80 91 / 10 10 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
36. Tropicsweatherpr
10:07 AM GMT on August 13, 2013
Good morning. Good weather in general is expected for PR today but by next Friday a large Tropical Wave (Pouch 20L) will increase the showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 60W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
NEAR 60W MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER NO MAJOR IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT PREVAILS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH GFS AND WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TPW VALUES DROPPING NEAR
1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO INDUCE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEFORE 13/16Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA. AFTER 13/16Z...INCREASING LLVL
CLOUDS OVER PR MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS...ALSO TSRA DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...LIKELY
AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ SOMETIME BETWEEN 13/16Z AND
13/22Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 13/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 81 / 30 20 20 20
STT 90 80 91 80 / 50 10 10 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14061
35. nydesertdweller
8:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2013
Thanks for the forecast, a few quick showers Fri afternoon, Sun afternoon, late Sunday and early Monday AM. Last rain was 9:30am or so today in Salinas.



Doug
Member Since: September 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 129

Viewing: 85 - 35

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About Tropicsweatherpr

I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
80 °F
Partly Cloudy

Tropicsweatherpr's Recent Photos

Hurricane Gilbert