ENSO Updates

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 8:13 PM GMT on January 05, 2013

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55. Tropicsweatherpr
4:22 PM GMT on February 10, 2014
CPC 2/10/14 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
54. Tropicsweatherpr
3:33 PM GMT on February 06, 2014
Here is the Febuary update by CPC that calls for Neutral thru Spring and a possible El Nino by Summer.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
6 February 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

While remaining ENSO-neutral, January was characterized by the periodic emergence of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly Niño index values in Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 bounced around -0.5oC, while Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 stayed within ±0.5oC (Fig. 2). This recent cooling was associated with the upwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in a dip in the oceanic heat content (Fig. 3) and below-average subsurface temperatures at depth across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Upper and lower-level winds were near average across most of the Pacific, except for the emergence of strong westerly winds in the western part of the basin toward the end of the month. Convection became more enhanced over eastern Indonesia and the western Pacific and remained suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

Nearly all model forecasts indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, but afterwards, an increasing number of models suggest the possible onset of El Niño (Fig. 6). Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific and the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the subsurface western Pacific potentially portend warming in the coming months. However, the spring is also historically associated with lower forecast skill, so the chance of El Niño developing after the spring is not much different from ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.



Link
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53. Tropicsweatherpr
7:43 PM GMT on January 21, 2014
The latest CPC update at 1/21/14 continues to show the dip at Nino 3.4 now at -0.7C.



Link
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52. Tropicsweatherpr
3:17 PM GMT on January 18, 2014
The Mid-January update shows flat forecast.

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51. Tropicsweatherpr
11:53 PM GMT on December 19, 2013
The Mid December update of models have an average of +0.4C.



Link
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50. Tropicsweatherpr
5:30 PM GMT on December 05, 2013
CPC 12/5/13 update=Increasing chance for El Nino to develop by mid summer
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49. Tropicsweatherpr
3:45 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
CPC 11/25/13 update warms Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
48. Tropicsweatherpr
5:24 PM GMT on November 11, 2013
CPC 11/11/13 update has Nino 3.4 at 0.0C

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47. Tropicsweatherpr
7:53 PM GMT on November 07, 2013
CPC November Update at 11/7/13
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46. Tropicsweatherpr
6:35 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Update from Mid September.

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45. Tropicsweatherpr
2:27 PM GMT on August 05, 2013
CPC update of 8/5/13

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44. Tropicsweatherpr
2:43 PM GMT on July 15, 2013
Nino 3.4 goes down to -0.4C in this week's 7/15/13 update.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
43. Tropicsweatherpr
12:19 AM GMT on June 21, 2013
Nothing that resembles El Nino not only for ASO August,September and October but until the end of 2013 and in early 2014.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
42. Tropicsweatherpr
2:14 PM GMT on June 03, 2013
The CPC 6/3/13 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.2C



Link
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41. Tropicsweatherpr
3:05 PM GMT on May 28, 2013
The Climate Prediction Center update of 5/28/13 shows the cooling trend continuing.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
40. vis0
8:57 AM GMT on May 21, 2013
Though on topic, more of an opinion than "talking fact". + more clues as to the ml-d.

Its the learning curve for man [science] first bowing outward then being reigned inward
the more man learns, usually by trial & error.

When something is new to modern man's observations and seems to be a large influence
as to a field of science (in this case, weather) man tends to "place all its eggs" (meaning,
trying to connect all weather trends to that new finding.) We see that with El Nino,La Nina,
Los Suegros...oh wait the last means The in-laws (sent that joke to Jim Cantore & Vivian
Brown ~1993). On the serious side we also see this with Global warming, its real, but i
prefer Global Climate Schizo, more on that on my & others wxu blogs.

Now instead of thinking weather trends ONLY follow Major Earthly changes one day it'll be
discovered that its the 4 outer influences that have the MAJOR impacts as to weather
TRENDS. Those other 4 i state are IF I MAY CALL THEM SUCH, the biorhythms of the local
Solar System,Galactic,Galactic clusters (really something else that has to do with black
hole novae interÆctions) & Uni-verse, hence i state there are 5 types of "ice ages" &
5 types of "Radon Ages".

Now HERE THE CRAZY STATEMENT (what, before wasn't???), if one can influence weather
then El Nino or La Nina AND OTHER Large scale weather influences will react to such an
influence SPECIALLY if that man controlled influence is "larger". Thus it will look
as if El Nino or La Nina are throwing us a Phil Niekro knuckle ball as if its faking us
out, but in fact its being changed by another "larger" influence (in size and/or
what i call "push/pull per atom" (don't look up "push/pull per atom" its a measurement i
use as to a device i call "ml-d" and i state the ml-d uses the opposing energy to the mantels
liquid iron to influence weather. This opposing energy i state is a sub atom ~static
which should have a chemical footprint of ~silicone)

i state if an ml-d is used its area of influence (look up "ml-d AOI" - IPERNITY image
search, there are 5 low quality drawings blogged onto wxu) is large enough, specially
WHEN THE ml-d is PULSED it can change other near by weather trends including ~60%
of El Nino or La Nina at present ml-d settings. Therefore at the present ml-d setting NEAR
what i call #2.3 El Nino or La Nina has to be ~3.5 times its Theorized Nino/Nina Max to break
through the ml-d AOI, IF the ml-d IS IN NYC.

How do i determine the ml-d's AOi?  That  i do by using the planet's natural 8 segments of
what i call Galacsic intrÆction (Æ is a clue as to an sub atomic interaction of H & He)
use your imagination and see if you can see the A in Æ really being an H (Hydrogen) intertwining
with He (helium) so helium changes its lower case "e" and turns to an upper case e (E). Its
all mumbo jumbo (unless you know chemistry) but save these clues i leave it'll come in
handy when science begins to figure out what i've been calling the ml-d since the 1970s.
In the 1970s i found a way to read these energies as they intertwine.

Now as to those 8 have specific points on a complex planet. One of its clues to at least begin
locating a starting point are areas near the deepest areas of land (usually underwater) were
phosphorous is a major output. Try La Palgera , Puerto Rico as to the Milwaukee Trench/Depth
& i'll let you locate the phosphorous as to the Mariana Trench.

Next the ml-d will adjust to one full Galactic region NATURALLY, yet if its not centered as
such i accidentally figured out a way for it to then open a natural "mirror window" where
the energy the ml-d is tapping into then creates a mirror AOI half and/or completing 360
degree portion is created to the east, if west of the ml-d has no salt water then a mirror AOI and/or
completing 360 degree portion is created to its west, if east of the ml-d has no salt water to its east.
Why IF THIS THEORY IS CORRECT there is a weird dry slot affect 65% of the time over the
Florida panhandle as long as the ml-d is in NYC 'cause Florida is a Peninsula. BTW, ml-d has been on continuously ON since Jan. 2010, mostly in NYC a few months in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico.

If you made it this far i thank you for taking the time to read weird statements. If its not
understood not to worry, neither was the atomic energy understood just a hundred years
ago and this is the other side of that, just as deadly but via ABS0 ,peace
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 263 Comments: 657
39. nigel20
7:17 PM GMT on May 20, 2013
It seems as if we could have a cold-neutral or we la nina this hurricane season, but i guess we'll have to wait a couple months to be sure.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8488
38. Tropicsweatherpr
1:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2013
The 5/20/13 update from CPC has Nino 3.4 way down from -0.1C last week to -0.4C this week.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
37. Tropicsweatherpr
2:31 PM GMT on May 13, 2013
CPC 5/13/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C.



Link
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36. Tropicsweatherpr
3:25 PM GMT on May 09, 2013
EL NIO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 May 2013

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.

During April 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below average SSTs confined to the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The Nio indices were near zero throughout the month, except for the Nio1 2 region which was between -1.2oC and -0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near average during April (Fig. 3), reflecting near-average subsurface temperatures at depth across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The tropical low-level easterly winds remained slightly enhanced over the western half of the Pacific basin, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed across much of the equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection was enhanced over Indonesia and the western Pacific and suppressed over the central Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these conditions indicate the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models forecast Nio-3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral into the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6), with dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (-0.3oC to 0.4oC) than the statistical models (-0.7oC to 0oC). There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of the year, partly because of the so-called %u201Cspring barrier,%u201D which historically leads to lower model skill for forecasts made between March and May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next few months. The current forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral will likely continue into the second half of the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

Link

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35. Tropicsweatherpr
7:16 PM GMT on May 06, 2013
CPC 5/6/12 update= Nino 3.4 at 0.0C
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
34. Tropicsweatherpr
5:26 PM GMT on April 29, 2013
The 4/29/13 CPC update has no changes from last week's update as Nino 3.4 remains at -0.1C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
33. Tropicsweatherpr
3:08 PM GMT on April 22, 2013
The 4/22/13 CPC update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
32. Tropicsweatherpr
8:42 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Quoting nigel20:
Hey Tropics! I can't believe that a next hurricane season is already upon us.


hopefully it will not be bad in terms of direct impact.


Agree 100%. Hopefully no landfalls occur in any of the Caribbean Islands.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
31. Tropicsweatherpr
8:41 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Here is the Mid-April update of the models and they are in Neutral for the peak of the season.



Link
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30. nigel20
7:36 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Hey Tropics! I can't believe that a next hurricane season is already upon us.


hopefully it will not be bad in terms of direct impact.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8488
29. Tropicsweatherpr
2:37 PM GMT on April 15, 2013
The 4/15/213 CPC update has Nino 3.4 at deal Neutral at 0.0C.



Link
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28. Tropicsweatherpr
2:45 PM GMT on April 08, 2013
The April 8 CPC update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C.

CPC 4/8/13 update

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27. Tropicsweatherpr
5:44 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
The CPC 4/1/13 update has no change to Nino 3.4 (-0.1C)

Link
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26. Tropicsweatherpr
6:39 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
The CPC update of 3/25/13 has Nino 3.4 more warmer at -0.1C and Nino 3 up to 0.4C.

CPC 3/25/13 update

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25. Tropicsweatherpr
7:28 PM GMT on March 21, 2013
Neutral ENSO is what the Mid March update of the models forecast going thru Summer and fall.





Source
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24. Tropicsweatherpr
6:23 PM GMT on March 18, 2013
The CPC update of 3/18/13 has nino 3.4 more cooler at -0.3C.

Nino 3.4 down to -0.3C

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23. Tropicsweatherpr
3:45 PM GMT on March 11, 2013
The weekly CPC update of 3/11/13 has Nino 3.4 more warmer as it rose to -0.1C from the -0.3C that was on last week's update.



CPC 3/11/13 update
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22. Tropicsweatherpr
4:10 PM GMT on March 07, 2013
The March CPC update is out and they expand to the Summer as being with Neutral conditions. But they also talk about the spring barrier that can affect the forecasting of models.

CPC March update
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21. Tropicsweatherpr
1:37 AM GMT on March 05, 2013
The 3/4/13 CPC update has Nino 3.4 up to -0.3C and that is up from -0.5C that was in last week update.

CPC 3/2/13 ENSO Update has NINO 3.4 at -0.3C

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
20. Tropicsweatherpr
3:35 PM GMT on February 25, 2013
Climate Prediction Center 2/25/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C and that is down from -0.3C that was last week.

Link

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19. Tropicsweatherpr
7:16 PM GMT on February 21, 2013
The update of the ENSO models are at Neutral thru the end of 2013.





Link
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18. Tropicsweatherpr
3:04 PM GMT on February 19, 2013
CPC 2/19/13 update has Nino 3.4 a little bit more warmer at -0.3C.

Link
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17. Tropicsweatherpr
3:33 PM GMT on February 18, 2013
The CPC update will be released on Tuesday because of the holiday but the graphic shows a little warming of Nino 3.4.

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16. Tropicsweatherpr
3:10 PM GMT on February 11, 2013
The CPC 2/11/13 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5C and that is the same as last week's update.

Link

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15. Tropicsweatherpr
6:58 PM GMT on February 09, 2013
The Febuary update by CPC has Neutral thru the Spring.

Link

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.

During January 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). While remaining below average, a high degree of variability in the weekly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices was apparent during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also below-average (Fig. 3), largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central Pacific by late January (Fig. 4). The variability in both the ocean and atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages of wind and convection. Anomalous upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Relative to December 2012, the region of enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.

The vast majority of models predict near-average SST (between -0.5oC and +0.5oC) in the Niño-3.4 region through the late Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, because model skill is generally low during April-June, there is less confidence in the forecast beyond the spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
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14. Tropicsweatherpr
3:45 PM GMT on February 04, 2013
The CPC 2/4/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C.

Link

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13. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:16 AM GMT on February 01, 2013
Tropicsweatherpr has created a new entry.
12. Tropicsweatherpr
7:27 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
CPC 1/28/13 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.2C and that is up from -0.6C that was in last week's update.

Link

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11. Tropicsweatherpr
7:20 PM GMT on January 22, 2013
The CPC 1/22/13 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.6c and that is the same as last week's update.

Link

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10. Tropicsweatherpr
7:48 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Quoting nigel20:
Hey Tropics! It seems as if the equatorial pacific is cooling fairly quickly...it will be interesting to see if this trend continues over the next couple of months.


Indeed. It will be interesting to see how ENSO evolves in the comming months with the various factors that will guide things.
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9. nigel20
5:15 PM GMT on January 21, 2013
Hey Tropics! It seems as if the equatorial pacific is cooling fairly quickly...it will be interesting to see if this trend continues over the next couple of months.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8488
8. Tropicsweatherpr
1:49 AM GMT on January 18, 2013
The update of the ENSO models in Mid-January show ENSO between Neutral and La Nina by ASO.

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7. Tropicsweatherpr
1:31 PM GMT on January 17, 2013
The Aussies update has Neutral conditions thru the Spring.

Link

Tropical Pacific ENSO neutral

Issued on Tuesday 15 January 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific observations and model outlooks suggest the current neutral El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state will continue into the southern hemisphere autumn.

All indicators of ENSO are currently within the neutral range. The tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled over recent months after warmer-than-normal waters were present during mid to late 2012. Despite cooling, tropical ocean temperatures remain within the neutral range.

As expected, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to near-zero values as the influence of local tropical weather systems dissipated. Other atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns also remain within the neutral range.
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6. Tropicsweatherpr
3:10 PM GMT on January 14, 2013
The Climate Prediction Center 1/14/13 update has Nino 3.4 crossing into La Nina threshold at -0.6C.

Link

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5. Tropicsweatherpr
7:22 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
There is a major oceanic Kelvin wave coupled with a strong MJO about to come through the Pacific. This should last for about 20-45 days. We may see cooling on the next update reflecting last week but La Nina will have to wait until the couplet passes as westerlies will be strong to resume cooling. Let's see how things will evolve in the next few weeks.
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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

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