Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Tropicsweatherpr, 8:13 PM GMT on January 05, 2013 | +5 |
|
I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
 |
78 °F
Mostly Cloudy
|
 |
Get Free Weather Stickers® |
 |
Upload Your Photos |
 |
Weather™ API for Developers NEW! |
 |
Become a Site Member |
 |
Find us on Facebook |
 |
Follow us on Twitter |
| Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc. | About Us - Contact - Support - Employment - Press Releases - Terms of Service - Privacy Statement |
Page: 1 — Blog Index
Link
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 January 2013
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during December 2012. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were positive in the western Pacific, near zero in the central Pacific, and slightly negative in much of the eastern Pacific (Fig 1). This SST anomaly pattern is also reflected in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) in the equatorial Pacific became slightly below average (Fig. 3), with positive sub-surface temperature anomalies west of 165oW and stronger negative anomalies in the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Upper- and lower-level zonal winds were near average across the tropical Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation Index was slightly negative. Also, convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over western Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric features indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.
Model predictions favor near-average SST in the Niño-3.4 region from the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 into summer 2013 (Fig. 6). Because predictions through the April-June season are known to be less skillful, the forecasts for the summer carry limited confidence at this time. Thus, it is considered unlikely that an El Niño or La Niña will develop during the next several months, and ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
Link
Hi nigel. As of right now it looks that way but is still early to say for sure as many factors come into play in the next few months and IMO,by April,we will have a better idea on how active or not the 2013 season will be. Stay tuned to this blog as plenty of information about how ENSO is doing will be posted.
Link
Link
Tropical Pacific ENSO neutral
Issued on Tuesday 15 January 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Tropical Pacific observations and model outlooks suggest the current neutral El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state will continue into the southern hemisphere autumn.
All indicators of ENSO are currently within the neutral range. The tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled over recent months after warmer-than-normal waters were present during mid to late 2012. Despite cooling, tropical ocean temperatures remain within the neutral range.
As expected, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to near-zero values as the influence of local tropical weather systems dissipated. Other atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns also remain within the neutral range.
Indeed. It will be interesting to see how ENSO evolves in the comming months with the various factors that will guide things.
Link
Link
Link
Link
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
During January 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). While remaining below average, a high degree of variability in the weekly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices was apparent during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also below-average (Fig. 3), largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central Pacific by late January (Fig. 4). The variability in both the ocean and atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages of wind and convection. Anomalous upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Relative to December 2012, the region of enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.
The vast majority of models predict near-average SST (between -0.5oC and +0.5oC) in the Niño-3.4 region through the late Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, because model skill is generally low during April-June, there is less confidence in the forecast beyond the spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
Link
Link
Link
Link
CPC 3/2/13 ENSO Update has NINO 3.4 at -0.3C
CPC March update
CPC 3/11/13 update
Nino 3.4 down to -0.3C
Source
CPC 3/25/13 update
Link
CPC 4/8/13 update
Link
hopefully it will not be bad in terms of direct impact.
Link
Agree 100%. Hopefully no landfalls occur in any of the Caribbean Islands.
Link
Link
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 May 2013
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
During April 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below average SSTs confined to the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The Nio indices were near zero throughout the month, except for the Nio1 2 region which was between -1.2oC and -0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near average during April (Fig. 3), reflecting near-average subsurface temperatures at depth across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The tropical low-level easterly winds remained slightly enhanced over the western half of the Pacific basin, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed across much of the equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection was enhanced over Indonesia and the western Pacific and suppressed over the central Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these conditions indicate the continuation of ENSO-neutral.
Most models forecast Nio-3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral into the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6), with dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (-0.3oC to 0.4oC) than the statistical models (-0.7oC to 0oC). There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of the year, partly because of the so-called %u201Cspring barrier,%u201D which historically leads to lower model skill for forecasts made between March and May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next few months. The current forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral will likely continue into the second half of the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
Link
Link
Link
Its the learning curve for man [science] first bowing outward then being reigned inward
the more man learns, usually by trial & error.
When something is new to modern man's observations and seems to be a large influence
as to a field of science (in this case, weather) man tends to "place all its eggs" (meaning,
trying to connect all weather trends to that new finding.) We see that with El Nino,La Nina,
Los Suegros...oh wait the last means The in-laws (sent that joke to Jim Cantore & Vivian
Brown ~1993). On the serious side we also see this with Global warming, its real, but i
prefer Global Climate Schizo, more on that on my & others wxu blogs.
Now instead of thinking weather trends ONLY follow Major Earthly changes one day it'll be
discovered that its the 4 outer influences that have the MAJOR impacts as to weather
TRENDS. Those other 4 i state are IF I MAY CALL THEM SUCH, the biorhythms of the local
Solar System,Galactic,Galactic clusters (really something else that has to do with black
hole novae interÆctions) & Uni-verse, hence i state there are 5 types of "ice ages" &
5 types of "Radon Ages".
Now HERE THE CRAZY STATEMENT (what, before wasn't???), if one can influence weather
then El Nino or La Nina AND OTHER Large scale weather influences will react to such an
influence SPECIALLY if that man controlled influence is "larger". Thus it will look
as if El Nino or La Nina are throwing us a Phil Niekro knuckle ball as if its faking us
out, but in fact its being changed by another "larger" influence (in size and/or
what i call "push/pull per atom" (don't look up "push/pull per atom" its a measurement i
use as to a device i call "ml-d" and i state the ml-d uses the opposing energy to the mantels
liquid iron to influence weather. This opposing energy i state is a sub atom ~static
which should have a chemical footprint of ~silicone)
i state if an ml-d is used its area of influence (look up "ml-d AOI" - IPERNITY image
search, there are 5 low quality drawings blogged onto wxu) is large enough, specially
WHEN THE ml-d is PULSED it can change other near by weather trends including ~60%
of El Nino or La Nina at present ml-d settings. Therefore at the present ml-d setting NEAR
what i call #2.3 El Nino or La Nina has to be ~3.5 times its Theorized Nino/Nina Max to break
through the ml-d AOI, IF the ml-d IS IN NYC.
How do i determine the ml-d's AOi? That i do by using the planet's natural 8 segments of
what i call Galacsic intrÆction (Æ is a clue as to an sub atomic interaction of H & He)
use your imagination and see if you can see the A in Æ really being an H (Hydrogen) intertwining
with He (helium) so helium changes its lower case "e" and turns to an upper case e (E). Its
all mumbo jumbo (unless you know chemistry) but save these clues i leave it'll come in
handy when science begins to figure out what i've been calling the ml-d since the 1970s.
In the 1970s i found a way to read these energies as they intertwine.
Now as to those 8 have specific points on a complex planet. One of its clues to at least begin
locating a starting point are areas near the deepest areas of land (usually underwater) were
phosphorous is a major output. Try La Palgera , Puerto Rico as to the Milwaukee Trench/Depth
& i'll let you locate the phosphorous as to the Mariana Trench.
Next the ml-d will adjust to one full Galactic region NATURALLY, yet if its not centered as
such i accidentally figured out a way for it to then open a natural "mirror window" where
the energy the ml-d is tapping into then creates a mirror AOI half and/or completing 360
degree portion is created to the east, if west of the ml-d has no salt water then a mirror AOI and/or
completing 360 degree portion is created to its west, if east of the ml-d has no salt water to its east.
Why IF THIS THEORY IS CORRECT there is a weird dry slot affect 65% of the time over the
Florida panhandle as long as the ml-d is in NYC 'cause Florida is a Peninsula. BTW, ml-d has been on continuously ON since Jan. 2010, mostly in NYC a few months in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico.
If you made it this far i thank you for taking the time to read weird statements. If its not
understood not to worry, neither was the atomic energy understood just a hundred years
ago and this is the other side of that, just as deadly but via ABS0 ,peace
Viewing: 1 - 40
Page: 1 — Blog Index