December weather in Puerto Rico

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 11:04 AM GMT on December 01, 2012

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Good morning. Rainy conditions are forecast for this weekend in PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY THROUGH SUN AND PUSH SE OF THE AREA
BY MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK SURGE IN MOISTURE
LATER TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO ALMOST TWO INCHES WHICH
IS CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DEC. S/W
TROUGH NOW EXITING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED
SFC TROF ACROSS THE AREA AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THAT STEERING WINDS ARE FCST TO COLLAPSE LATE
TONIGHT THRU SUN WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED ON THIS BASIS AND AREAL CVRG WAS DETERMINED BY A DECEMBER
RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY FROM 1981-2010 WHICH SHOWS THAT MOST HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS THE ISLAND IN DECEMBER TAKE PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. RIVERS IN THIS AREA ARE VERY SHORT IN
LENGTH AND VERY FAST RESPONDERS SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FLOODING
EITHER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

THINGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUN NIGHT AND MON AS INVERTED TROF PUSHES
SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
NORTHERLIES AND COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO LAST MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 01/17Z
AND 01/21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 05-10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT EXPECTED TO BUILD MON NIGHT TO 10 FT IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT
BUT SWELLS GREATER THAN 10 FT ARE CLIMATOLOGICAL RARE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...NOVEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD
AT LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (TJSJ) WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 82.4 DEGREES. IN TERM OF PRECIPITATION AT TJSJ...NOVEMBER ENDED
AS THE TWELFTH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WITH JUST 3.09 INCHES. AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT (TISX)...NOVEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE NINTH
HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.2
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 79 83 73 / 60 100 100 30
STT 81 80 80 79 / 60 100 100 30

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38. Tropicsweatherpr
11:20 AM GMT on December 31, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST MON DEC 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND TIGHTEN THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING
MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED BANDS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL
TROUGH NOW OVER THE REGION...AS WELL AS AN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR
LINE JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH WHICH WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED HOLD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND THUS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
BANDS AND PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...THE
PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT THE FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMNANTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... NEAR TO OR JUST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR PASSING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WILL
EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS INDUCE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS XPTD AT LCL TAF SITES THRU AT LEAST TUE XCP
MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA ALONG AND N OF NORTH COASTS. LLVL WIND NE
8-20 KT TO FL200 BCMG E ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL
THE SEAS AS A NORTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SEAS...WITH EAST NORTHEAST WIND WAVES AND
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL ACTION. IN ADDITION BY LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUEASDAY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE LIKELY AND
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY TUESDAY.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND COSTAL
WATERS FORECAST. ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN
JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 72 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 72 85 73 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
37. Tropicsweatherpr
11:55 AM GMT on December 30, 2012
Good morning. Beautiful weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for the final two days of 2012 and for the first days of 2013.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THOUGH
MONDAY. WEAK TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION INDUCED BY MIGRATORY HIGH
SHIFTING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER AIR DATA TJSJ 30/00Z SHOWED MODERATE EASTERLIES
OF 10 TO 15 KTS BELOW 850 MILLIBARS...WITH WINDS BACKING AND
BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT UP TO 500 MILLIBARS WHERE THEY GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH HEIGHT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. ALSO NOTED WAS A
FAIRLY STRONG 4 DEGREE SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION NEAR 800 MILLIBARS
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED
FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN CARRIED BY THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES.

EXPECT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INCREASING EASTERLIES
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
THAT AN OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SOME EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A GRADUALLY DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AND THUS INCREASE
THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT LCL TAF SITES SUN/MON XCP BRIEF MVFR CIG IN
PSBL ISOLD SHRA. SOME MTN OBSC IN SHRA FOR INTERIOR PR SUN AFTERNOON
IN DVLPG CONVECTION. WIND MOSTLY VRBL 10 KT OR LESS BLO FL 100.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 73 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 74 85 73 / 20 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
36. Tropicsweatherpr
10:59 AM GMT on December 29, 2012
Good morning. A few scattered showers will move thru the NE Caribbean but for the most part,good weather is expected for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT DEC 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TRADE WIND
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...THEN LIFT
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND LATER
REINFORCE THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECTED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT
LIVED AND OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WITH CONTINUED DECREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED SLIGHT
INCREASE IN EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THE DOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
EACH MORNING...THEN IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.
EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW -SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ IN THE MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 73 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 73 86 74 / 20 10 10 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
35. Tropicsweatherpr
11:14 AM GMT on December 28, 2012
Good morning. A mainly good weekend weatherwise is expected for the NE Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST FRI DEC 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FROM TIME TO TIME. INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS MOVING WESTWARDS IN
THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION AS NO SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...A SLIGHT CHOP CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY NEW YEARS DAY. WITH THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SWELL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 72 / 30 20 10 10
STT 85 73 85 73 / 30 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
34. Tropicsweatherpr
10:48 AM GMT on December 27, 2012
Good morning. Good weather will prevail thru the weekend and possibly thru the early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST THU DEC 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. GFS COMPUTER IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THIS
MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND GETTING VERY DRY BY SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP TO LESS
THAN 0.75 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON....WITH THETAE VALUES AT
700MB ALSO DECREASING...WITH VALUES NEAR 314K...WHICH ARE REALLY
LOW VALUES HERE IN THE TROPICS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH NEXT WEEK...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 73 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 74 86 73 / 30 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
33. Tropicsweatherpr
11:06 AM GMT on December 26, 2012
Good morning. In general,good weather will prevail for the rest of this week in the NE Caribbean with only a few showers but mainly the sun will prevail.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST WED DEC 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WITH LONGWAVE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVR THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF/WINTER STORM OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME EROSION OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TODAY TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HILLS. STABILITY INDICES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE TODAY THAN YDAY SO
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY T-STORMS TODAY. NEXT S/WV TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE SO EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MORE SHRA ACTIVITY OVR WATER TONIGHT
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR. MOISTURE ERODES FURTHER ON THU
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ONE LAST S/WV
TROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LATTER ONLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS LOW LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY AND LOW
LEVEL STABILITY INCREASES.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS SAT BEHIND EXITING
S/WV TROUGH AND BUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHARP DRYING AND PLUMMETING OF PWAT/RH VALUES.
EXPECT VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER SAT WITH MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES DROP TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
LONGWAVE RIDGE THEN ESTABLISHES OVR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THINGS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT TJMZ TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJMZ WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
16Z...WITH TEMPO MFVR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND VCNTY SHOWERS
26/16Z-26/21Z. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SEAS
REMAINING 3-5 FT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 10 0 10 20
STT 84 76 85 76 / 10 30 10 10

&&
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
32. Tropicsweatherpr
11:28 AM GMT on December 25, 2012
Good morning and happy holiday to all in the Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST TUE DEC 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED TPW AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS AND CLEAR SKIES NORTH
OF 19N. MODELS SHOW PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A H25 S/WV TROUGH FCST TO MOVE ACROSS LATER
TODAY THAT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH HILLS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AFTER WED...PWAT AND H85
THETAE VALUES START GOING DOWN THAT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OF NO CONSEQUENCE. THEN STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BUILDS IN EARLY ON SAT BEHIND ONE LAST S/W
TROUGH THAT LEADS TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEN LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

IN SUMMARY...TODAY LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH EVEN THE CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERWARDS IN THE VICINITY OF TJPS IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS AND ARE NO LONGER MEETING EITHER HIGH SURF OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVZY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...BOTH HIGH SURF AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 78 84 76 / 10 0 10 0
STT 85 78 85 79 / 10 10 0 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
31. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:54 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
Tropicsweatherpr has created a new entry.
30. Tropicsweatherpr
11:11 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
Good morning. Good weather is expected in PR and rest of NE Caribbean islands for today and on Christmas day. For all of our Caribbean and CentralAmerican friends,have a happy holiday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST MON DEC 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LINGER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL FORESEE LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE AS A PRETTY TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES
LOCALLY. A DRIER AIR MASS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ENCOMPASSED
THE FA AND HAS PROVIDED A NICE START TO CHRISTMAS EVE AND EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE FA AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...AS BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THESE
CLOUD AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM ALL OF US HERE AT YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL MAINLY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

ALSO...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 74 / 20 30 30 10
STT 85 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
29. Tropicsweatherpr
7:45 PM GMT on December 23, 2012
Good afternoon. A mainly good weather pattern will prevail this week in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS......BASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE FILLING AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL CREATE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND INCREASE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ON MONDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. AT LOW LEVELS...COLD
FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LIGHT EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND SO FAR. EXPECTED THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES
TO BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH COOLER AIR AND OVERALL STABLE
AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS EACH DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PASSING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER AT FL100 WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA AROUND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS SOME SHRA ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UNTIL 24/00Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY
BECOMING SCATTERED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY TIST...TJSJ...
AND TJBQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 85 75 86 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
28. Tropicsweatherpr
11:34 AM GMT on December 23, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND PROBABLY LINGER AT MID LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL EXPECT A PRETTY
TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN LOCALLY. MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR AND ACROSS
THE FA AT THIS TIME...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH AN
OVERALL DRYING AND STABILIZING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS IS
INDICATED...THIS WILL BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. SO...AS MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND TROUGHINESS LINGERS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA...EXPECT CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...WITH BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUD AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER AT
FL100 WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA THE REST OF TODAY.
SHRA POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PR LATE TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE...THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS THROUGH 11 AM AST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 40 30 30 30
STT 85 73 84 74 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
27. Tropicsweatherpr
10:54 AM GMT on December 22, 2012
Good morning. Typical weather for this time of year will prevail for PR/VI in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY TODAY...BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AS A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN LINGERS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT A PRETTY TYPICAL
WINTER PATTERN LOCALLY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS THE FA AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...MODELS
ARE NOW INDICATING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...
THIS MOISTURE WILL NEVER MOVE VERY FAR AWAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SO...EXPECT CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...WITH
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUD AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY...PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT OR WILL GO INTO EFFECT
LATER THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS THROUGH 11 AM AST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 40 40 40 20
STT 84 72 84 74 / 30 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
26. Tropicsweatherpr
11:14 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Good morning. A variable weekend is expected with some scattered showers but also with plenty of sunshine.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
DEEPER LAYERED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF...IF NOT ALL OF SATURDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE CLOUDY
AND SHOWERY ALL THE TIME...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...OCCASIONALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND WET ROADS WITH LOCAL PONDING OF WATER.
COMMUTERS ARE ONCE AGAIN URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW A LITTLE
EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS.

THEN...FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY ALSO...DESPITE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS...AN OVERALL DRIER
PATTERN IS INDICATED BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY OR
CLOUD FREE...AS A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN OF PASSING BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT SHRA WILL
AFFECT THE FLYING AREA TODAY. SHWRS WILL CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS MAY OCCUR IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. LLVL
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THESE SWELLS THEN LINGERING ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS (AMZ710) AT 3 PM
AST THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE BUILDING NORTH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASINGLY LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS...RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THUS...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF MANY OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 40 40 40 0
STT 84 72 84 72 / 30 20 20 0
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
25. Tropicsweatherpr
11:23 AM GMT on December 20, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU DEC 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A DEEPER LAYERED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION SATURDAY AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BANDS
AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D DATA ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER BLOSSOMING AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA AND EXPECT
THIS TO EXPAND/MOVE WEST THROUGH THIS MORNING...PRODUCING ANOTHER
RATHER UNSETTLED AND DAMP MORNING...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...OCCASIONALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND WET ROADS WITH LOCAL PONDING OF WATER. MORNING
COMMUTERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW A LITTLE EXTRA TIME TO
REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUD AND SHOWER
AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

THEN...FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FALLING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...POOLING MOISTURE LOCALLY FROM GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH...SHOULD YIELD AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY...LOOK TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH LOTS OF CLOUDINESS AND
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. WEATHER AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS...SUNDAY MAY TURN OUT A BIT DRIER THAN THE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...BUT IT LOOKS MORE SHOWERY AGAIN FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PR
AND USVI BTWN 20/10Z AND 20/15Z. LLVL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE 6 FEET OR LESS IN LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...AS A NEW PULSE OF NORTH SWELLS INVADES THESE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AMZ710 AS EARLY AS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPANDING TO OTHER WATERS
THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY...THESE BUILDING NORTH SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASINGLY LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS...
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THUS...HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AS WELL. FOR TODAY...SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 74 81 73 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
24. Tropicsweatherpr
11:03 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Good morning. A change to a more wet pattern will begin on Friday and last thru the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED DEC 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A DEEPER LAYERED TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. OUTSIDE OF
THESE CLOUD AND SHOWER BANDS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL. THEN...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FALLING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...POOLING MOISTURE
LOCALLY AND POSSIBLY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE
TROUGH...SHOULD YIELD AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
5 FEET OR LESS IN LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...AS A NEW PULSE OF NORTH SWELLS BEGINS TO AFFECT THESE
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 20 30 30 40
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
23. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 AM GMT on December 18, 2012
Good morning. The good weather pattern will continue to prevail in the NE Caribbean for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST TUE DEC 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST
AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL REINFORCE THE PRESENT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THUS
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED ON THE
PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE SAME WAY EXPECT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND MOSTLY OF LIGHT
INTENSITY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
TO SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. INCREASING FRAGMENTAL
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SHEAR LINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. T

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MOMENTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TISX
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A MINOR WAVE SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...CAUSING LOCALLY SCT SHRA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 18/12Z...WIND
TO BECOME MAINLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 18/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...A NORTHERLY SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY. MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS SHOULD MONITOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SWELL EVENT AS IT COULD GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR OUR LOCAL WATERS AND
LOCAL COASTS FOR THE INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 83 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
22. Tropicsweatherpr
11:25 AM GMT on December 17, 2012
Good morning. No change to the pattern of good weather for the Eastern Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST MON DEC 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
LIMITING THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 17/22Z. VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TIST..TISX...TJSJ...AND
TJBQ. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...THESE SWELL EVENT WILL PEAK EARLY TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVET IS FORECAST
TO REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY. MARINERS AND BEACHGOERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SWELL EVENT AS IT COULD GENERATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR OUR LOCAL WATERS
AND LOCAL COASTS FOR THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 71 / 30 40 40 40
STT 85 73 85 73 / 30 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
21. Tropicsweatherpr
7:17 PM GMT on December 16, 2012
Good weather will prevail in the Eastern Caribbean for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS GENERAL FLOW...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WAS BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST WHILE
FILLING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
BUILD FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS AND BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DURING THE DAYTIME...EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE ISLANDS. THE GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO HELP STEER
AND DEVELOP SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES
TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES OR SO AS WELL AS CONTINUED DECREASING THETA-E
VALUES. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS WEATHER REGIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
DAY...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. ISOLD SHRA MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST IN AND AROUND TJPS AND TJMZ UNTIL
17/00Z...THEREFORE VCSH IS EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MOMENTS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO TEMPO LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH THE SHRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR AS CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SURFACE TO FL020 WINDS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE ENE TO NE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 71 82 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 85 73 85 / 10 10 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
20. Tropicsweatherpr
7:18 PM GMT on December 15, 2012
Good afternoon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MONA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRY
ADVECTION AND STABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION
OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY ABOVE
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TJSJ MORNING SOUNDING AS WELL AS AMDAR/MDCRS
AVIATION DATA INDICATED A STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 700MB AND 650MB...
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE ALSO RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA CONTINUE
TO SHOW BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
EVERY DAY BUT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY...VEERING TO THE
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER THIS FLOW...
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
IN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL TAF SITES AND SHRA THRU SUN TO BE ISOLD AT
MOST. PSBL MVFR A VERY OUTSIDE CHC IN THOSE SHRA. LLVL WIND BLO
FL110 N-NNE 10-20 KT THIS MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NE
5-10.

&&

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 72 85 73 85 / 10 10 10 10

&&
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
19. Tropicsweatherpr
11:11 AM GMT on December 14, 2012
Good morning. Good weather is expected this weekend in the NE Caribbean so enjoy it.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH WILL PASS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ERODES THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. SEVERAL FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA...ONE NEXT
THURSDAY AND ONE DURING CHRISTMAS WEEK. AT THIS TIME NEITHER IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE VISIBLE IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE FUELED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER
AIR IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHEASTERLY DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
19 DEGREES NORTH 50 DEGREES WEST. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ADVECTION OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER...BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST TO CROSS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BUT INSTEAD WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE IN AND AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS
NO MAJOR EVENTS OR DEEP CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 10
DAYS AND COLD FRONTS WILL NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA ACCORDING TO
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...ALBEIT IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 14/18Z. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TJMZ...TJBQ..AND TIST
FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS AT THE SURFACE...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 73 / 20 10 10 10
STT 86 72 85 73 / 20 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
17. Tropicsweatherpr
10:54 AM GMT on December 13, 2012
Good morning. Patches of clouds and showers are moving thru the NE Caribbean today but things dry out from Friday thru the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST THU DEC 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO PASS ON SATURDAY. A SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEGINNING SUNDAY AND IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE
NEAR 22 NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL BANDS OF MOISTURE HAS CROSSED
THROUGH SAINT THOMAS AND IS NOW ENTERING PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED...BRIEF...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 23 AND 25 KNOTS SO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. NAM AND GFS SHOWS THE OVERALL
MOISTURE PLUMMETING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BOTTOMS OUT LATE SATURDAY THE GFS DOES NOT
TILL SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL SHOW CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY MOISTENING UP THROUGH
THURSDAY. GFS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL SHEARLINE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOW. THIS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. IN THE MEANTIME WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ AND
LIKELY WITH PASSING SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TKPK/TNCM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE SHRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 2SM OR LESS. SHRA ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
14/04Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND SHRA...DECREASING AFTER 13/22Z. HIGHER MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
DO NOT RETURN WITHIN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 83 72 / 70 40 20 30
STT 85 74 85 73 / 60 10 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
16. Tropicsweatherpr
11:12 AM GMT on December 12, 2012
Good morning. No change to the present weather pattern in the NE Caribbean of variable clouds and some fast moving showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST WED DEC 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS TUESDAY AND A MEDIUM WAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
RETREAT TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES NEXT WEEK SLOWLY EASING SOUTH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE END OF THAT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
FADE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF STREAM TODAY MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30
AND 40 NORTH LATITUDE INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS REPLACED BY A VERY LARGE AND FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
THAT LEAVES THE CENTRAL EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PULLS A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME DIMINISHING TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CARRY PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DURING THIS PERIOD THE USVI RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE TENTH
INCH AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO RECEIVED MORE THAN ONE
AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN. INTERESTINGLY SAN JUAN DID NOT REPORT
MEASURABLE RAIN. RADAR AT 4:30 AM AST SHOWED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO. IN
NEARLY EAST FLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A DIMINISHING HIGH PRESSURE DRIVES
TRADE WINDS CARRYING PATCHES OF MOIST AND DRYER AIR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT...BUT DRY MID LAYERS RETURN
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS DEEP THEREAFTER. THE WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS THE
FIRST IN THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE
LOCAL TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS PASS BY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO END EVERYWHERE ON OR BEFORE FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 83 72 / 50 50 40 20
STT 86 75 85 75 / 40 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
15. Tropicsweatherpr
11:15 AM GMT on December 11, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BUT START TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING.

THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO WEAKEN. SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
12/02Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR FOR CIGS AT TIST...TNCM AND
TKPK. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER TNCM...TKPK..AND
TIST...TJNR...TJSJ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP THRU 18 KFT WITH
NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT UP THRU 35 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO SEAS OF UP
TO 8 FEET. THE MODELS AGAIN SEEM TO BE OVERESTIMATING THE WIND
SPEED...SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE WINDS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THE
MODEL SUGGESTED...WHICH WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AS WELL...THEREFORE
THE FORECAST WINDS WERE FLATLINED AT 21 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 40 40 30
STT 80 80 80 80 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
14. Tropicsweatherpr
10:50 AM GMT on December 10, 2012
Good morning. Mainly good weather prevails in the NE Caribbean except for a few passing showers with fresh breezes.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST MON DEC 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY MID WEEK AND
WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVING US BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GIVING US PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
PASSING SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND CAUSING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE MARINE CONDITIONS
AS SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME HAZARDOUS.


&&

.AVIATION...ENE FLOW CARRYING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO OUT OF THE
AREA BUT A NEW BAND IS APPCHG TKPK WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARND 10/12Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BUT OCNL MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER PUERTO RICO. LLVL WINDS ENE 10 TO 25
KT UP TO 10 KFT...STRONGEST BTWN 2-5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SEAS AND WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BUT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVER ESTIMATING THE WIND
SPEED...SO THE WIND SPEED OVER THE WATERS WAS FLAT LINED AT 20
KNOTS FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE WIND SPEED. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 7 FEET
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 40 50
STT 86 75 87 76 / 20 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
13. Tropicsweatherpr
11:19 AM GMT on December 09, 2012
Good morning. Yes!! Good weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for the next few days.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LANDS AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THESE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GENERALLY DRY AIR
MASS MAINTAINING A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
SHRA ACROSS PR MAY CAUSE VCSH MAINLY FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ. WIND TO
REMAIN EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...INCREASING AFTER 09/13Z
TO 10 TO 15KTS UNTIL 09/23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 83 74 / 10 20 30 0
STT 86 75 86 76 / 20 20 30 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
12. Tropicsweatherpr
10:56 AM GMT on December 08, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 70 KT JETSTREAM NORTH OF THE REGION IS ENHANCING
THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A GENERALLY DRY AIR AT LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
AND ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. TJSJ 08/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.33
INCHES. THIS VALUE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1.80
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS VALUE OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. PWAT
VALUES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BY MONDAY AND AFTERWARD AS A VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE ENCOMPASS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT THRU SUNDAY WITH ISOLD MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA.
LLVL E WIND 10 TO 20 KT BLW 7 KFT...LGT/VRBL TO 14 KFT...THEN
STRONGER WESTERLIES ABV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 74 / 30 20 30 20
STT 85 77 86 75 / 10 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
11. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Good morning. A mainly good weekend weatherwise is expected in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS CUBA...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TODAY... AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE
FURTHER INCREASE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED INCREASING
OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION SO FAR REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. PREVIOUS
TJSJ 07/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED
TPW...SUGGESTS CONTINUED DECLINE IN PWAT VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGEST DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF QUICK
PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WITH THAT SAID...
EXPECT A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST UNDER THE PREVAILING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE WEST INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
FORESEE NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...AS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL INFILTRATE
THE AREA. EARLIER TJSJ 07/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BTW 10 TO 20 KNOTS FM SFC-FL100 KFT...
THEN BCMG WESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO 75 KT NR FL450.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AST. IN ADDITION...SEAS DIMINISHED
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND FOR THAT REASON THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 84 74 / 30 30 40 20
STT 85 74 86 75 / 20 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
10. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST THU DEC 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY.
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
AND ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY...WHERE
IT WILL HELP INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A DOMINANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREA STILL
HOWEVER EXPECTED AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.45 INCHES TODAY...WITH EVEN LESSER VALUES
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INCREASE ABOVE
1.50 OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRIER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ONLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHRA WILL PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST UNTIL AT LEAST 14Z. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TJSJ 06/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K
FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

MARINE...LATEST LOCAL BUOY DATA AND THAT NORTH OF THE AREA NOW
SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE PEAKED AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHT WERE NOW BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET WITH PERIODS
BETWEEN 10 AND TO 11 SECONDS. THE PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING...RESPECTIVELY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE COASTAL FORECAST AND STATEMENTS
FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 73 / 40 40 30 30
STT 85 73 86 74 / 30 30 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
9. Tropicsweatherpr
11:11 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail today with only some showers moving from the northeast.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST WED DEC 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHRA WILL INDUCE FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST TODAY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TJSJ 05/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET IN NORTHEAST
SWELLS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 85 76 / 50 50 50 40
STT 82 81 82 81 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
8. Tropicsweatherpr
10:51 AM GMT on December 04, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST TUE DEC 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...
NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. SHORT AMPLITUDE
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. AS A RESULT...UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY "DRIER" TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS SHORT AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FRI-
SAT. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...MPROVING WX CONDITIONS TUE AS ATMOS STARTS TO DRY OUT
AND BECOME MORE STABLE. FEW TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BUT
NO FLYING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.MARINE... NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS
OF UP TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 77 82 77 / 50 30 30 40
STT 84 77 84 78 / 40 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
7. Tropicsweatherpr
6:17 PM GMT on December 03, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
212 PM AST MON DEC 3 2012

PRC001-023-055-059-067-079-097-111-121-125-153-03 2115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0460.121203T1812Z-121203T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-PENUELAS PR-
SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-CABO ROJO PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
212 PM AST MON DEC 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUANICA...GUAYANILLA...HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...PENUE LAS...SABANA
GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...ADJUNTAS...CABO ROJO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 212 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1798 6717 1809 6721 1811 6719 1814 6720
1816 6719 1812 6669 1802 6669

$$

SNELL
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST MON DEC 3 2012

PRC043-059-075-111-113-123-133-149-032115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0459.121203T1810Z-121203T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COAMO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-VILLALBA PR-
210 PM AST MON DEC 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS...PONCE...SALINAS...
SANTA ISABEL AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 210 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6642 1798 6646 1798 6651 1795 6655
1796 6664 1797 6663 1795 6668 1797 6670
1797 6676 1810 6674 1816 6646 1805 6620
1796 6630 1797 6633 1794 6637

$$

SNELL
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST MON DEC 3 2012

PRC029-031-087-119-127-139-032100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.121203T1810Z-121203T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
LOIZA PR-
210 PM AST MON DEC 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO GRANDE AND
LOIZA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 206 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6604 1845 6603 1846 6600 1844 6582
1842 6581 1843 6579 1842 6577 1831 6578
1834 6607 1847 6609

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
6. Tropicsweatherpr
10:56 AM GMT on December 03, 2012
Good morning. Variable weather will prevail today in PR between periods of sun and scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST MON DEC 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...
NOW LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH
OF THE AREA.

&&


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST MON DEC 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...
NOW LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MON AND POSSIBLY TUE. AS A RESULT...UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED AND
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL TURN PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ESPECIALLY BY MID-WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...FREQ SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS ALONG NORTH
COAST OF PR AND NRN USVI LIKELY AFFECTING JSJ WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL START WORKING INTO THE REGION TUE
DECREASING AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS AND RAINFALL RATES. SFC WINDS WILL
BE PREDOMINANT FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST NORTHEAST AT 10G15KT WITH
SOME VARIATIONS IN DIRECTION DUE TO SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE EFFECTS.
OVERALL...IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS STARTING TUE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PARTS OF THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SWELLS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 74 / 60 60 60 40
STT 86 76 86 75 / 30 60 60 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
5. Tropicsweatherpr
3:53 PM GMT on December 02, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST SUN DEC 2 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND A FEW
ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS ALREADY
OBSERVED SHOWERS THAT TOOK THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES
AT THE SAINT THOMAS AIRPORT.

02/12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM YESTERDAY WITH LESS
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY BUT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO WENT DOWN TO 1.8 INCHES
BUT ALSO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM AVERAGE WIND AND THE 0-6KM STORM MOTION WERE
INDICATED BY THE SOUNDING RANGED ONLY FROM 4 TO 6 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST...SO ANY AND ALL SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY LINGER
OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR A WHILE. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

WRF MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN...SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND SOME
FLOODING COULD BE A RESULT OF THAT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
OBSERVED SOME FLOODING YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ACROSS THE PR/USVI TERMINALS. TEMPO
GROUPS WERE WRITTEN IN THE TJPS AND TJMZ TAFS DUE TO HIGHER
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST...SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES...THEREFORE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST..AND TISX WERE LEFT OUT. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND
THAT SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
4. Tropicsweatherpr
10:56 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Good morning. More rain is expected for today in PR/VI as the troughs linger around.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN DEC 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN INVERTED SFC TROF
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...S/W TROUGH TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA INTO THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC
TROF ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE MOVING EWD IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING PER
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLC WATERS SOME WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO -52C. EXPECT THAT WITH SOME HEATING LATER
TODAY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE CLOSE TO
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT
EXPECTED. CONVECTION WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET OVR PR BUT
LINGER LONGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL PULL OUT THE FCST AREA MON
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED. HOWEVER...COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN
AND STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA AT
VI TAF SITES AS WELL AS TJSJ THIS MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS TJPS
AND TJMZ AFT 02/17Z. PREVAILING VFR AT TKPK AND TNCM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT THROUGH MON BUILDING TO 9 FT MON NIGHT AND
TUE IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. T-STORMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SWELLS MON NIGHT THRU THU ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ710.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 83 79 / 70 40 40 60
STT 80 79 79 77 / 70 40 40 60
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
3. Tropicsweatherpr
7:58 PM GMT on December 01, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AND PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND A BROAD MID UPPER TROUGH WHICH
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALSO...AN INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALL
THESE FACTORS PROMISE TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST
12Z GFS90 COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETAE VALUES AT 700MB OF OVER
330K THROUGH MONDAY. IS NOT UNTIL MID WEEK...MODEL SHOWS A DRYING
TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS 1.3 INCHES BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT
LEAST 01/22Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TO
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OVER TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AS SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND INCREASING WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERLY SWELL REACH OUR LOCAL
WATERS...GENERATING CONFUSE SEAS THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 83 73 83 / 80 70 30 30
STT 80 80 79 80 / 80 60 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
2. Tropicsweatherpr
5:37 PM GMT on December 01, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
116 PM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

PRC007-021-025-031-035-041-045-061-063-077-085-12 7-129-139-151-
012015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0453.121201T1716Z-121201T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-YABUCOA PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
116 PM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...COMERIO...GUAYN ABO...
GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN JUAN...SAN LORENZO...
TRUJILLO ALTO...YABUCOA...AGUAS BUENAS AND CAROLINA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 111 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 415 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6598 1811 6587 1809 6596 1812 6601
1817 6618 1837 6616 1847 6608

$$

AAS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
115 PM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

PRC009-019-043-107-012015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0452.121201T1715Z-121201T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-COAMO PR-OROCOVIS PR-AIBONITO PR-
115 PM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...COAMO...OROCOVIS AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 114 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 INCH OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 415 PM
AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1819 6642 1818 6625 1806 6628 1805 6641

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605
1. Tropicsweatherpr
1:00 PM GMT on December 01, 2012
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

PRZ001-002-004>006-012-013-VIZ001-002-012000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0009.121201T1800Z-121203T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO.. .VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA... JAYUYA...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
400 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY AND VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

* AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROF ACROSS PR...PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE INVERTED TROF BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND HEAVIER ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PR AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING
WINDS COLLAPSE. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING
WINDS...HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$
ROSA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15605

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