Puerto Rico/Caribbean October blog of daily weather

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 5:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

Share this Blog
1
+

This is the October blog for daily weather in Puerto Rico and the rest of Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST...OVER THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE VICINITY OF PONCE...AND LATER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCE BY
THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH IS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL REGION IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLOT OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR 1.10 INCHES AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB AT 315K.
IF THIS VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY MOST PROBABLY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

THE EAST WIND FLOW WHICH IS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME...IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TRJMZ..AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 60 30 20 20
STT 80 89 79 90 / 60 30 20 20

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 74 - 24

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

74. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:44 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
Tropicsweatherpr has created a new entry.
73. Tropicsweatherpr
10:50 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
Good morning. The seas are beggining to slowly go down and that is good news.Also,no big weather feature will come to the islands for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST WED OCT 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED SURFACE WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS MORNING. AFTER ALMOST ONE
WEEK IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DUE TO THE BIG CIRCULATION
WHICH WAS PRODUCED BY SANDY...FINALLY WE ARE IN A NORMAL WIND FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A SLOT OF
DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
PW VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 1.2 INCHES. THEN...FOR
SUNDAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 31/17Z WHEN SCT-NUMR
TSRA WILL FORM OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ. ALSO ISOLD-SCT TSRA NR TJSJ. WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
AFT 31/16Z. LLVL WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41053 IN SAN JUAN STILL SHOWING 7 FEET AT 13
SECONDS AND BOUY 41043 LOCATED NEAR 200 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN SHOWS 10.5 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. THEREFORE...EXTEND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TROUGH 8 PM AST TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 10
STT 88 77 88 77 / 10 20 20 0
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
72. Tropicsweatherpr
10:50 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
Good morning. Still the seas are very high here.


.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EVEN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
MEANTIME...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR 322K BY
THURSDAY. ALL THESE FACTOR...WILL RESULT IN LESS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.


.AVIATION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER A
MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CONDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY BTWN
6-25 KFT. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE
FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...AFT 30/17Z MTN OBSCURATIONS ISLAND-WIDE AND
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AT TJBQ/TJBQ AND VCNTY. LLVL WINDS SE-S ARND
10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...REFER TO LATEST MARINE AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR
LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 50 0 10 20
STT 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
71. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Good morning. No beach today nor going out in boats as seas are rough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE SANDY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF THIS MORNING...PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF WARNING AND A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE...REFER TO ZONE FORECAST AND CFWSJU
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

MEANWHILE...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RELIEF IN THIS HOT PATTERN.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATE BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EVERY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 29/17Z. A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS TIST FROM BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. AFT 29/17Z
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 40 20 30 0
STT 87 81 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
70. Tropicsweatherpr
11:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Good morning. Watch out beachgoers and mariners for high seas.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO REMAINS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT BEGINS BUILDING NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MID-WEEK. THIS HIGH THEN SHIFTS BACK INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CUTS INLAND ACROSS NEW JERSEY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONNECTS TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH
OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE REFORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK GENERATING EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THESE TRADE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THAT BEGAN SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER
LAST NIGHT MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PART OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND
HURRICANE SANDY. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A BAND OF BETTER
MOISTURE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO HAD BEEN STIFLED BY A CAP
IN THE INVERSION AROUND 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET BUT MODELS SHOW THAT
DISAPPEARING THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE
THEY WERE SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN...AND DOWN-SLOPE FLOW OVER
THE NORTH COAST THAT SENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE AND RAPID HEATING WILL COMMENCE. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE CORDILLERA...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS BROUGHT IN BY A SHIFT OF
WIND FLOW TO THE EAST THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
RETURNS AFTER SATURDAY...BUT 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW
1413 METERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER PEAKING AT AROUND 1423
METERS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 28/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 26/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE LOCAL NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO
SUBSIDE AS SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DIMINISH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC. SEAS CONTINUED BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.5 FEET AT BUOY
41043 AS SWELL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY HAVE NOT YET ARRIVED. SEAS AT BUOY 41046 IN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS HAVE CLIMBED RAPIDLY TO 20 FEET AND PART OF THAT SWELL
WILL ARRIVE HERE LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SEAS OF 7 TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 14
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MOST
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT GOES INTO EFFECT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS AND TIMING OF THE SEAS
VARIED WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS OF 7 FEET WOULD NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS WITH SWELL FROM BOTH
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE BUOYS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ALREADY ABOVE 20 FEET HAVE DECIDED TO BEGIN
THE FIRST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE ATLANTIC AT NOON AND THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 92 78 / 0 0 40 20
STT 87 82 86 80 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
69. Tropicsweatherpr
10:45 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Good morning. It looks like Sandys tail will no longer be a big factor in the local weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RETURNS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH TROUGHING DOMINATES
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MOVES NORTH AND INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND FORM NORTH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANGE THE SOURCE OF
AIR FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL...DEWPOINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS AT OR ABOVE TWO INCHES AT ALL THREE
SOUNDERS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 27/00Z SOUNDING WAS RATHER
STABLE FOR THE AREA NORMAL WITH ITS LIFTED INDEX COMING IN AT
MINUS 1.2 DEGREES...LIKELY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE
HOURS JUST BEFORE THE SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED...THE LOWEST TWO
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR MASS WERE ALSO RATHER WARM...WITH THE
HIGHEST PART OF THE LAYER COMING IN AT 24 DEG C. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPID WARMING TODAY. MOS AGAIN TRIED TO GIVE US A MAXIMUM
BELOW 90 DEGREES...BUT NEITHER SHOWERS NOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO HOLD THE HIGHS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO OUT
OF THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE 100-110 DEGREE
MARK. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO RE-IGNITE CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS BARELY
DOWN FROM THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS WOULD EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS
TO SEE MINOR FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
DECLINE FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND SUNDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE
DRIER.

SANDY`S INFLUENCE IS WANING AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS DETERIORATED
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT HELPED...NEVERTHELESS MODELS SHOW
ITS MAIN CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS WILL BE PULLING AIR OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS ALSO SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS THAN SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOW BEGINS TO PULL THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK THAT SHOULD
GIVE RELIEF TO BOTH THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS...THE HUMIDITY AND THE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED DURING THE LAST
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER 27/16Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND GENERATE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE TJSJ TERMINAL. REST OF THE TERMINALS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AFTER
27/16Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE BELOW 7 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 22
KNOTS...ALTHOUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
19 TO 21 KNOTS HAVE GENERATED SEAS AROUND 6 FEET. MODELS APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH BIAS...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWING WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. LATEST SATELLITE
SCANS SHOW THIS IS LIKELY NOT THE CASE. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE SANDY ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AND PEAK
MONDAY. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THAT TIME AND LAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 76 / 50 0 20 10
STT 87 79 88 80 / 40 10 10 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
68. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
Good morning. PR is under a flood watch today as bands from Hurricane Sandy move thru. I will keep all informed about anything that may occur here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OR
JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS

AT MID LEVELS...AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAINTAINS A RIDGE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGHER PRESSURE FORMS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MID WEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND BOOSTS THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN BANDS HAVE FOUND CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
COPIOUS RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MOST STREAMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FLOOD LEVEL AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE INTENSE DURING THE DAY...LEAVING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OR EVEN FLASH FLOODING.
WINDS...HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS DUE TO THE INCREASING DISTANCE OF HURRICANE SANDY FROM
THE AREA. THE TRACK OF SANDY IS SUCH THAT THIS ONE LONG
CONNECTION FROM THE TROPICS TO HURRICANE SANDY MAY EXTEND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL
AREAS WILL STILL SEE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WHICH REACH AS MUCH AS 1427
METERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SHOW ONLY A
FEW DAYS REACHING 90 IN SAN JUAN...BUT CONSIDER THIS TO BE TOO LOW
AS PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE ALSO REACHED 91 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THEREFORE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND EXPECT SAN JUAN TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS UNTIL SOUTH FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DECENT WIND FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED
INLAND VALLEYS...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THESE TEMPERATURES STAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF
TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ALL
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z. PASSING SHOWER COULD ALSO
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIST AND TISX TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TNCM AND TKPK
TERMINALS THROUGH 26/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY FAILED TO REACH A SUSTAINED 22
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX YET SOME MORE...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS SEAS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SWELL ARRIVE FROM SANDY`S EXTENDED STAY IN
THE CARIBBEAN. SWELL FROM HURRICANE SANDY`S TRACK IN THE ATLANTIC
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 10 FEET OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA AND ANEGADA
PASSAGES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO. WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL FALL DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS THE RAIN BANDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE BANDS SHIFT EASTWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 80 / 60 50 60 30
STT 88 82 88 82 / 60 60 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
67. Tropicsweatherpr
10:46 AM GMT on October 25, 2012
Good morning. Moisture will increase in the next few days in PR as the flow changes from the south bringing deep moisture.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IT WILL BUILD AND EXTEND NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS THE
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND NOW
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY. HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUED TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARDS
THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTH NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN
DOING SO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SANDY BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVEL ONLY SHALLOW FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS NOTED MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT THIS TIME...AS A FAIRLY DECENT SUBSIDENT CAP REMAINED IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SUBSIDENCE CAP...TO LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENT
WIND FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY STEER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE OF SHORT DURATION ACROSS PUERTO RICO. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE SCENARIO IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AND OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...AND
MOIST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS SANDY CONTINUES NORTHWARDS. IN ADDITION...
THE ERODING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE DUE TO HURRICANE
SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THAT SAID DECIDED
TO CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY WET PATTERN IN THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR
THE LONG TERM WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 25/15Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN INCREASE ON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM
25/18Z THROUGH 25/22Z...AFFECTING THE TJSJ AND TJBQ TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 79 / 10 20 30 20
STT 88 79 87 80 / 10 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
66. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on October 24, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM SANDY SPREADING BANDING SHOWERS INTO
THE SOUND END OF MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT SOME OF THESE TO GRADUALLY
WORK TOWARDS PR BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH TO BE A FLOODING THREAT
TODAY. FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOWN
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON NORTH SIDE OF MAINLAND PR
WHILE MORE WINDWARD SOUTH SIDE OF PR WILL SEE MORE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER TO HOLD NEAR 2 INCHES AT THE OUTSKIRTS
OF SANDY UNTIL LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON THU. A LITTLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAKE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MORE LIKELY FOR
CORDILLERA SOUTH TO THE COAST ON THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 59 HAS REACHED 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED...A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE BUT EXPECT WINDS THAT STRONG TO SKIRT A LITTLE WEST OF SJU
MARINE ZONES AS SANDY MOVES NORTH OVER JAMAICA TODAY. ENOUGH WINDS
ARE PRESENT TO BUILD CHOPPY SEAS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF ISLANDS.
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED BY TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLD LYRS BTW FL100-FL250 FM
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FEW-ISOLD PASSING SHOWERS AND L/LVL SCT CLD LYRS
BTW FL020-FL050 WILL REMAIN PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT 24/15Z. L/LVL WNDS SFC-FL100 MAINLY FM
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...THEN VEERING W/HT BCMG MORE SLY
AND FAIRLY LGT WNDS WITH WND SPD LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO FL250.NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 30 20 40 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 10 30 30 40

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
65. Tropicsweatherpr
7:25 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
OVR THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS. RIDGE WILL THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS ERN NOAM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SW ATLC ON THU WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SANDY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS
AND REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU AT LEAST FRI BEFORE IT BEGINS TO THIN
OUT ON SAT. THIS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE AND
THUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS SANDY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
MAINLY OVR THE MONA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS OFF OF NW PR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR FLOODING AS STORM MOTION WILL BE
QUITE FAST IN THE ORDER OF 25-KNOTS. IF ANYTHING IT WOULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER DUE TO HIGH HELICITIES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
FAST STORM MOTION. LIMITIING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO
BE EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK AND BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO STAY OVR THE MONA CHANNEL. TWO THINGS THAT MOST PEOPLE
WILL NOTICE IS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AND HOT TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG SRLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND TJMZ THROUGH
23/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SCA SEEMS LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG
POSSIBLY MAJOR SWELL EVENT AS SANDY TRANSITIONS INTO A VERY
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT GETS SUCKED UP INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE STORM WILL HAVE AN EXTREMELY LARGE RADIUS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW ATLC
AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY. GLOBAL WW3 ENSEMBLE INDICATES
VERY HIGH PROBS OF SEAS EXCEEDING 3-METERS AT 11 SECS WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF SEAS EXCEEDING 4-METERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 84 79 84 / 0 20 20 30
STT 81 81 81 82 / 10 10 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
64. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Plenty of rain expected for a good chunck of Caribbean during the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL STORM SANDY...SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN...WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

FROM WEDNESDAY TO AT LEAST SATURDAY THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY...JUST SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST
BULLETIN FROM THE NHC...SANDY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN
CUBA AS A HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SANDY WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...
ESPECIALLY JAMAICA...CUBA AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THE OUTER
BROAD CIRCULATION OF SANDY WILL DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
ENCOMPASS OUR FA...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INDUCE SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS UNTIL AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER FREQUENCY
IS DECREASING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFT 23/16Z WHEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LCL MVFR/IFT CONDS. LLVL WINDS E-ESE LESS
THAN 15 KT.

&&

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL
STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 78 / 20 30 40 30
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
63. Tropicsweatherpr
9:46 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Good morning. All eyes are on what will occur with 99L so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON OCT 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FROM WEDNESDAY TO AT LEAST SATURDAY THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST TWOAT FROM
NHC...THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY
AND THEN HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES...ESPECIALLY JAMAICA CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS OUR FA...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THIS INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL INDUCE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 22/17Z-21Z. AS A RESULT...
MVFR/IFR CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ MONDAY AFTERNOON. 22/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
MAINLY ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC TO 10 KFT. ABV 10 KFT WINDS
ARE BACKING WITH HEIGHT REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 50 KTS(NW WIND) AT 45
KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 10
STT 87 77 87 78 / 40 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
62. Tropicsweatherpr
8:24 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Here is the San Juan NWS afternoon discussion about the indirect effects for Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST SUN OCT 21 2012

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL
TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW ON A
TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO OUR WEST THROUGH NORTH. NONETHELESS...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL AREA WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
INFLUX OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH VEERING WIND FLOW WITH
HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...INCLUDING SOUTH TO NORTH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF POTENTIAL
MODEL TRACKS...THE CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD STILL YIELD SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY...PROBABLY BEGINNING EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
PROBABLY BEYOND. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR MANY
DETAILS...THE "POTENTIAL" REMAINS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
POSSIBLY FLOODING...LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. STAY
TUNED.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
61. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 AM GMT on October 21, 2012
Good morning. We continue to watch the progress of invest 99L in the next few days. Indirect effects may occur in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SUN OCT 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE TUTT LOW REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LEVEL WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SOUTH
OF HAITI...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WAS NOW BEING ENHANCED BY
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MEANWHILE...A WEAKER TUTT INDUCED TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THIS MORNING... WITH WAVE AXIS WAS NOW NEAR 60
WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDINESS WAS
APPARENT ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
LOW LEVEL VORTEX MOVING WESTWARD IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS BLENDED
TWP ANALYSIS AND EARLIER 21/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTED DECREASING PWAT VALUES AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION...STILL EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY. LESSER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE
ONLY FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. LATER IN THE EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TO BRING SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS... FOLLOWED BY MAINLY LOCAL TERRAIN
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH GOOD VENTILATION BY UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY FAIR AMOUNTS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
LATER ON IN THE WEEK STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE TO BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE EUROPEAN MODEL NOW
SHOWED SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...THEN LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS. REGARDLESS OF HOW
FAR WEST OR HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE AND BROAD ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE
NORMAL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS FEATURE
VERY CLOSELY AS BOTH MARINE AND LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 21/17Z ALTHOUGH MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO
ARE LIKELY TO BE OBSCURED THROUGH 21/22Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 21/17Z AND 21/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR
CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 21/00Z TJSJ RAOB AS WELL AS LATEST
TJUA VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED MAINLY SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC
TO 20 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
60. Tropicsweatherpr
2:28 AM GMT on October 21, 2012
ST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
846 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

.UPDATE...SOUNDING AT 21/00Z SHOWED A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AND IN THE SAME WAY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS ALSO DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AS FAR INLAND AS JUNCOS AND ALSO AROUND SAINT JOHN ON
THE WAY INTO SAINT THOMAS. LATEST WRF MODEL GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF
FORECAST ALSO SHOW GOOD POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN ON EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO SO HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN FOR
THE TIME BEING...AND ALL POINTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE ONCE IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN RETURNING
TO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
21/17Z ALTHOUGH MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE LIKELY TO BE
OBSCURED THROUGH 21/22Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ BTWN 21/17Z AND 21/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR CONDS AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 21/00Z TJSJ RAOB AS WELL AS LATEST TJUA VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWED MAINLY SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC TO 20 KFT.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
59. Tropicsweatherpr
8:28 PM GMT on October 20, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

PRC013-065-202030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0402.121020T1832Z-121020T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
232 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6658 1832 6662 1834 6672 1835 6673
1834 6675 1835 6682 1839 6681 1842 6683
1849 6683

$$

23
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
58. Tropicsweatherpr
8:27 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...IT STILL APPEARS THAT AN
"OVERALL" DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND THE INFLUENCE OF A
SLOWLY WANING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD YIELD A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
BOTH DAYS...TO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...FOR MONDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WEAK EASTERLY
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST NEAR OR ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONIC SPEED DIVERGENCE...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED THE
WEATHER A BIT IN THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR MONDAY...BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO INCREASED FURTHER WITH TIME AND LATER GUIDANCE.

THEREAFTER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES...MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP SURFACE LOW ON A TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH
NORTH...BUT OPEN THE LOCAL AREA UP TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
INFLUX OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH VEERING WIND FLOW
WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...IN COMBINATION
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...INCLUDING SOUTH TO NORTH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE CURRENTLY INDICATED
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD YIELD SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL MUCH TOO
EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS...THE "POTENTIAL" REMAINS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
PREVAILS. AFT 20/22Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LLVL WINDS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 87 78 87 / 20 20 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
57. Tropicsweatherpr
9:39 AM GMT on October 20, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
ERODING BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...THEN MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS TO EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AND
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS...A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK...A TUTT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING
TRADE WINDS TO MORE OF A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLOW AND OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS TROPICAL WAVE AND TRAILING
MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING POCKETS
OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SUFFICIENT
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE ISOLATED
DURING THE AFTERNOONS BUT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST
CROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE A DEEP MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME WAYS OUT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS. REGARDLESS...THE TENDENCY OF ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER AND POSSIBLY VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN SOME AREAS MAY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
20/16Z AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES WITH ONLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...AFTER 20/16Z SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LEADING TO
PERIODS OF MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS. EARLIER TJSJ 20/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS
FROM THE SURFACE TO FL200 FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCR
W/HT ALOFT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 77 87 78 / 30 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
56. Tropicsweatherpr
2:37 AM GMT on October 20, 2012
.UPDATE...A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF TONIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRIER
AIR MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE USVI AND PR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE TYPICAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGES
WERE DONE TO THE MID/LONG TERM GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POP`S AND
CLOUD COVER AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
55. Tropicsweatherpr
10:24 AM GMT on October 19, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST FRI OCT 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL THEN COLLAPSE ON TUE AS BROAD
TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN GMEX.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AND APPEARS TO BRING VERY ACTIVE WX TODAY SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN
I THOUGHT ATTM YESTERDAY. EXPECT NRMS SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND SPREAD WWD
INTO WRN PR. WHILE SHRA CVRG WILL BE HIGH TODAY A STORM MOTION OF
AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP T-STORMS MOVING AT A GOOD PACE AND KEEP
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM BECOMING EXCESSIVE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINANGE FLOODING ACROSS THE MAYAGUEZ.

MARKED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SAT AS TROPICAL WAVE FINALLY EXITS
AND TRADE WIND CAP STRENGTHENS. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MON BUT STILL WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON TSRA
ACROSS WRN PR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GMEX. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEXT
FRI AND MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC NEXT SAT. SRLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO OUR AREA WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF BEING FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS BY 24 HRS. A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER A 2-4 DAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE IT APPEARS
HISPANIOLA WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE DEGREE OF IMPACT OVR
PR AS BEST INFLOW WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVR A 2-4 DAY PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST RAISED THE
SKY CVR GRIDS AS IT APPEARS DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NEWD AND
REMAIN WITH US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE FLYING AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ UNTIL 19/15Z. AFTER
19/16Z SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ.
19/00Z TJSJ RAOB INDICATED MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT IN EASTERLY WIND WAVES. T-STORMS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 60 10 10 10
STT 88 79 89 78 / 50 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
54. Tropicsweatherpr
7:25 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC011-097-182200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0399.121018T1856Z-121018T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
256 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6705 1827 6705 1826 6707 1824 6706
1817 6707 1816 6708 1816 6717 1831 6715

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
53. Tropicsweatherpr
6:27 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
214 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC001-067-081-083-093-121-125-131-153-182115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0398.121018T1814Z-121018T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-
YAUCO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
214 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...LARES...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...
YAUCO...SAN SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS AND LAS MARIAS

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 212 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1818 6701 1834 6703 1830 6683 1807 6682
1814 6712

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
52. Tropicsweatherpr
6:04 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC001-059-073-111-141-182045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0397.121018T1752Z-121018T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JAYUYA PR-PENUELAS PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
152 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JAYUYA...PENUELAS...UTUADO AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED
LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6680 1830 6659 1817 6658 1815 6668
1806 6672 1803 6679

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
51. Tropicsweatherpr
5:31 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC043-075-113-149-181915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0396.121018T1710Z-121018T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COAMO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-VILLALBA PR-
110 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 108 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. A RAIN GAGE IN COAMO MEASURED AN INCH OF RAIN
IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6664 1810 6630 1804 6634 1805 6668

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
50. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on October 18, 2012
Good morning. We will have to watch the SW Caribbean in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST THU OCT 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE ON TUE AS BROAD POLAR
TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. BROAD SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING PAST FEW
DAYS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIB BASIN AND ESPECIALLY AROUND PR AND THE
USVI WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2.25 INCHES OR CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO A
EXPECT A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY BUT CONVECTION MOVING FASTER THAN
YDAY AND MOVING TO THE WSW. SLIGHT DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR FRI.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES RAPIDLY ON SAT ACCORDING TO THE 00Z
ECMWF AND GFS AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE PWAT VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.25 INCHES
OR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING BUT ITS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED. SO OVERALL...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR IN STORE FOR SAT THAT SHOULD LAST
THROUGH TUE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH SFC LOW
GETTING BLOCKED BY AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
65W. IT APPEARS A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION ESPECIALLY HISPANIOLA STARTING MID NEXT WEEK.
NOTE THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN
EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION. A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR MORE DETAILS BUT
SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE MJO IS
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE AND IS FCST TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA AT
TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER PR TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL WNDS MAINLY
LIGHT 5-10 KTS FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES. T-STORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 77 / 50 0 20 20
STT 89 79 88 78 / 50 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
49. Tropicsweatherpr
10:42 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
VEGA ALTA
VEGA BAJA
DORADO
TOA ALTA
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

* AT 612 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WARNED AREA. THIS
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLOODING PROBLEM ACROSS URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...STREAMS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6610 1829 6610 1828 6617 1827 6619
1829 6621 1832 6620 1833 6622 1833 6627
1837 6630 1837 6634 1835 6636 1839 6645
1849 6644 1850 6641

$$

ER/FC

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
48. Tropicsweatherpr
9:46 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

PRC021-033-051-061-127-135-137-143-172330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0392.121017T2126Z-121017T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA
PR-TOA BAJA PR-CATANO PR-
526 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...TOA ALTA...
TOA BAJA AND CATANO

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 523 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6617 1846 6617 1847 6614 1847 6604
1844 6604 1841 6601 1831 6605 1831 6620
1833 6622 1832 6623 1833 6628 1837 6630
1836 6635 1848 6634

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
47. Tropicsweatherpr
8:53 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

PRC013-141-172330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0390.121017T2037Z-121017T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-
437 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 433 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
UTUADO AND ARECIBO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 730 PM AST. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6677 1843 6659 1825 6663 1825 6678

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
46. Tropicsweatherpr
8:52 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

PRC013-141-172330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0390.121017T2037Z-121017T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-
437 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 433 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
UTUADO AND ARECIBO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 730 PM AST. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6677 1843 6659 1825 6663 1825 6678

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
45. Tropicsweatherpr
8:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

PRC039-091-101-145-172230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0389.121017T1930Z-121017T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
330 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...MANATI...MOROVIS AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 327 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER CIALES AND MOROVIS. RAIN RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 PM AST. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1829 6638 1825 6646 1825 6650 1822 6652
1822 6654 1824 6656 1830 6656 1835 6655
1835 6653 1839 6654 1849 6651 1848 6646
1850 6643 1850 6637

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
44. Tropicsweatherpr
6:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

PRC003-005-011-083-099-131-172030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0388.121017T1834Z-121017T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADILLA PR-
AGUADA PR-
234 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...AGUADILLA AND
AGUADA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 230 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6697 1820 6702 1821 6703 1825 6706
1825 6708 1841 6719 1842 6717 1845 6717
1850 6713

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
43. Tropicsweatherpr
10:46 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD POLAR TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB THU.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF ACTIVE WET DAYS APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE
REGION TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THU AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP WITH
PWAT GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES. CONVECTION TODAY WILL CONCENTRATE
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND DRIFT NORTHWARD ON A WEAK SRLY STEERING
FLOW. AS TRADES ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ON THU THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS WRN PR AND BE ENHANCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 55W PER BLENDED
TPW ANALYSIS. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FRI AS WAVE
MOVES INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND DRIER AIR STARTS WORKING IN
FROM THE EAST.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SAT THRU TUE AS MID-UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
ERODES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL START COMING BACK AGAIN
NEXT WED AS RIDGE COLLAPSES AS BROAD TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT USVI TAF SITES
AS WELL AS TKPK AND TNCM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFT
17/15Z... THEREFORE EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY AT 5-6 FT ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
IN MAINLY NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY RAFAEL. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH AREA REMAINING UNDER A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW
WITH SEAS BECOMING 2-4 FT BY TONIGHT. TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 40 30 40 0
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 40 40 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
42. Tropicsweatherpr
9:25 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC053-103-162215-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0387.000000T0000Z-121016T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-
513 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO AND FAJARDO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THESE AND THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES.THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RUNOFF AND RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS... AT
LEAST UNTIL 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6565 1829 6562 1829 6569 1827 6570
1829 6575 1827 6576 1825 6571 1823 6583
1825 6582 1827 6583 1829 6578 1828 6578
1830 6575 1829 6572

$$

RAM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
41. Tropicsweatherpr
7:12 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CHANGE THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
RAFAEL...NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS UNCOMMON...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BUT ORIENTED DIFFERENT AS NORMALLY OCCURS. THE WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW...FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY. IN FACT
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THOSE SECTOR OF THE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER AWAY...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION/SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA FROM THE
EAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WIN INDUCE A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA...BUT SPECIALLY
WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
PATTERN WITH SW WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SRLY ON WEDNESDAY.
TRADES FINALLY ESTABLISH AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SCT TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN AT JSJ AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
AT LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS TOMORROW AAFTERNOON. CONDITIONS RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL WED WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING JBQ AND JMZ UNDER A
SERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 0 30 30 30
STT 79 88 79 89 / 30 30 40 40

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
40. Tropicsweatherpr
6:54 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC047-051-135-137-143-145-162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0386.121016T1838Z-121016T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
238 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 237 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE VEGA BAJA AREA. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6639 1849 6633 1848 6629 1849 6625
1848 6625 1835 6627 1834 6636 1850 6640
1851 6639

$$

AAS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC031-033-061-087-127-161915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0385.121016T1821Z-121016T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-LOIZA PR-
221 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...CAROLINA...CATANO AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 210 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 315 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6595 1843 6594 1839 6600 1839 6607
1845 6612 1846 6612 1847 6604 1845 6602
1847 6598

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
39. Tropicsweatherpr
10:18 AM GMT on October 16, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WIND PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...FROM ARECIBO AND
VICINITY EASTWARD TO LUQUILLO AND FAJARDO. MEANWHILE...WARM TO
HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVE REACHING
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
PATTERN WITH SW WINDS TODAY BECOMING MORE SRLY TONIGHT AND SERLY ON
WED. TRADES FINALLY ESTABLISH AGAIN WED NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SCT TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN AT JSJ AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN AT LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
WED WITH TSTORMS AFFECTING JBQ AND JMZ UNDER A SERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...AS A RESULT HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 89 78 / 40 0 30 30
STT 88 79 88 79 / 40 30 30 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
38. Tropicsweatherpr
3:31 AM GMT on October 16, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012


.UPDATE...RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE RAFAEL CONTINUED TO DOMINATE
AND INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN DUE TO ITS BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS RAFAEL
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY... THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
EASTERLY BY THE THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THE LOCAL
WIND PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT DID HOWEVER ADJUST THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
AND AS WELL AS LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS...TO INCLUDE NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION
GENERATED BY RAFAEL.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
37. Tropicsweatherpr
6:16 PM GMT on October 15, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

PRC029-031-087-119-127-139-152100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0384.121015T1807Z-121015T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
LOIZA PR-
207 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO GRANDE AND
LOIZA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 207 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
500 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6576 1832 6606 1838 6608 1846 6593
1846 6591

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
36. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 AM GMT on October 15, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Nice blog as always Tropics! :)


Thank you for the comment.I am doing a blog every month about the daily weather.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
35. Tropicsweatherpr
10:43 AM GMT on October 15, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW RESPECTIVELY. UNDER THE PREVAILING
WIND FLOW...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS WELL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER
AWAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC RAFAEL THRU TUE WITH SW WINDS TODAY
BECOMING MORE SRLY TOMORROW WITH TRADES GRADUALLY ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE BASIN ON WED. UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW TJSJ WILL BE THE
MOST FAVORED TERMINAL TO EXPERIENCE TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MID
WEEK...STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WITH JBQ AND JMZ THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR AFTERNOON TSRA. T-STORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS INFLOW FEEDER
BANDS WEAKEN WITH WINDS TURNING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 40 0 30 0
STT 87 79 88 79 / 20 20 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
34. nigel20
8:30 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Nice blog as always Tropics! :)
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8488
33. Tropicsweatherpr
7:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Good afternoon. Nothing bad in terms of rain causing massive flooding is expected in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE
INCH. LIMITING FACTOR WAS THE CLOUD COVERAGE PRODUCED BY
RAFAEL...WHICH DIDN`T ALLOW STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA...ITS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A UNUSUAL
WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE...BECOMING VERY LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY. LATEST
12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT VERY DRY AT UPPER LEVEL. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
PUERTO RICO NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SITES. TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH THE EVENING AS
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST. LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY...AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. REFER TO LATEST OFFICIAL PRODUCTS
FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 89 / 40 40 10 30
STT 78 87 79 88 / 70 70 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
32. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on October 14, 2012
Good morning. Some bands are moving thru PR today as Rafael moves away from the region.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 NORTH AND 63.8 WEST AND WAS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR PUERTO RICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AS THE EASTWARD
RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL YESTERDAY AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD MOTION...ALLOWED MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
(AMZ710) UNTIL 11 AM AST...FOR MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION.

OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN LIMITED ACROSS THE FA...BUT
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND A BIT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL BANDS WILL ALIGN
IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR AND WIDESPREAD
OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SITES. TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH THE MORNING
AS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. LLVL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...EXCEPT THAT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
(AMZ710) UNTIL 11 AM AST...FOR MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION. ADDITIONALLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS IN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 60 40 40 10
STT 89 81 87 80 / 70 70 70 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
31. Tropicsweatherpr
3:24 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

.NEW INFORMATION...
SITUATION OVERVIEW INCLUDED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SURROUNDING MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0N...LONGITUDE 63.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. RAIN AND SQUALLS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS ON TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF
YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
30. Tropicsweatherpr
4:21 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.UPDATE...THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN IS CONTROLLED BY TWO TUTT
LOWS...ONE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOWS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE CLOSELY DURING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND ALTHOUGH WE
ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND
FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT
EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN
STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
29. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
From this mornings San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
PROBABLY PASSING NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ALSO LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TUTT REMAINS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DISTURBANCE JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT
IS BECOMING A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WOULD
GIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE WORST
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL
NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE SHOWERS PASS NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THIS MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 12/16Z AND 12/21Z. THIS COULD RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT AROUND
15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 70 70 70 50
STT 89 80 89 79 / 70 70 70 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
28. Tropicsweatherpr
5:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
112 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

PRC003-011-081-083-093-099-131-112015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0377.121011T1712Z-121011T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
AGUADA PR-
112 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND
AGUADA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 110 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 415 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6715 1839 6714 1840 6712 1830 6683
1816 6694 1837 6724 1840 6719 1841 6716

$$

23
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
27. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good morning. All eyes continue to be on what will invest 98L do in the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST THU OCT 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME
AND WILL SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MEANDERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TUTT WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A GOOD LOCATION
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BIT LESS COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN
TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED.
NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. SOME VCSH ARE EXPECTED NEAR TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT
AROUND 15 KTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 11/17 AND 11/21Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. PULSES
OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 89 80 89 80 / 40 30 30 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
26. Tropicsweatherpr
6:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

PRC001-013-065-081-093-141-102115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0375.121010T1821Z-121010T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-
221 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...LARES...MARICAO...UTUADO...ADJUNTAS AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 218 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS MAY LEAD TO RAPID RISES IN RIVERS AND SMALL
STREAMS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL 515 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6663 1813 6679 1817 6684 1814 6686
1815 6691 1833 6682 1835 6674

$$

AAS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
25. Tropicsweatherpr
11:06 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Good morning. There is still uncertainty about how much effects from the Tropical Wave will be felt in Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRESS TOWARD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE
TUTT WILL GRADUALLY FILL...LIFT NORTH AND GENERALLY GET ABSORBED
BY A LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND COULD THEN AFFECT A PART OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED RETROGRESSING TUTT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THERE IS STILL A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND EVEN MORE SO ABOUT WHERE IT WOULD EVENTUALLY
TRACK IF IT DOES DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGHT MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT MORE OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AT THIS POINT...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS...IF
ANY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...RATHER FREQUENT PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY VCSH FOR THE USVI/BVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...CAUSING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...AND VCTS AT TJPS AND TJBQ...WHILE TSRA IS LIKELY
FOR TJMZ BETWEEN 10/17Z AND 10/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY THE HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PULSES
OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 50 50 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 40 50 50 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
24. Tropicsweatherpr
7:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY RETROGRESS WESTWARD AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE BEGINNING TO FILL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELD
ACROSS REGION WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.70 TO 2.00 INCHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEANDERING
TUTT AND DIURNAL AND LOCAL INFLUENCES WILL MAKE FOR VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE INITIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ...THEN TO BE LATER SPREAD AND STEER TOWARDS
WEST SECTIONS OF THE THE ISLAND LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CAN ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 09/22Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION PERSISTS.
AFT 09/22Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK.
EAST WINDS OF UP TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 20 50 50 50
STT 78 88 79 89 / 50 50 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915

Viewing: 74 - 24

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About Tropicsweatherpr

I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
82 °F
Scattered Clouds