Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC043-075-113-149-181915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0396.121018T1710Z-121018T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COAMO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-VILLALBA PR-
110 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 108 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. A RAIN GAGE IN COAMO MEASURED AN INCH OF RAIN
IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6664 1810 6630 1804 6634 1805 6668

$$

JJA

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC001-059-073-111-141-182045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0397.121018T1752Z-121018T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JAYUYA PR-PENUELAS PR-UTUADO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
152 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JAYUYA...PENUELAS...UTUADO AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED
LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6680 1830 6659 1817 6658 1815 6668
1806 6672 1803 6679

$$

JJA

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
214 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC001-067-081-083-093-121-125-131-153-182115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0398.121018T1814Z-121018T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-
YAUCO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
214 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...LARES...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...
YAUCO...SAN SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS AND LAS MARIAS

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 212 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1818 6701 1834 6703 1830 6683 1807 6682
1814 6712

$$

JJA

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

PRC011-097-182200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0399.121018T1856Z-121018T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
256 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN...POOR
DRAINAGE...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6705 1827 6705 1826 6707 1824 6706
1817 6707 1816 6708 1816 6717 1831 6715

$$

JJA

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST FRI OCT 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE WILL THEN COLLAPSE ON TUE AS BROAD
TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN GMEX.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AND APPEARS TO BRING VERY ACTIVE WX TODAY SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN
I THOUGHT ATTM YESTERDAY. EXPECT NRMS SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND SPREAD WWD
INTO WRN PR. WHILE SHRA CVRG WILL BE HIGH TODAY A STORM MOTION OF
AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP T-STORMS MOVING AT A GOOD PACE AND KEEP
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM BECOMING EXCESSIVE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINANGE FLOODING ACROSS THE MAYAGUEZ.

MARKED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SAT AS TROPICAL WAVE FINALLY EXITS
AND TRADE WIND CAP STRENGTHENS. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MON BUT STILL WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON TSRA
ACROSS WRN PR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GMEX. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEXT
FRI AND MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC NEXT SAT. SRLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO OUR AREA WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF BEING FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS BY 24 HRS. A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER A 2-4 DAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE IT APPEARS
HISPANIOLA WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE DEGREE OF IMPACT OVR
PR AS BEST INFLOW WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVR A 2-4 DAY PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST RAISED THE
SKY CVR GRIDS AS IT APPEARS DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NEWD AND
REMAIN WITH US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE FLYING AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ UNTIL 19/15Z. AFTER
19/16Z SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ.
19/00Z TJSJ RAOB INDICATED MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT IN EASTERLY WIND WAVES. T-STORMS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 60 10 10 10
STT 88 79 89 78 / 50 10 10 10

.UPDATE...A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF TONIGHT. SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRIER
AIR MASS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE USVI AND PR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE TYPICAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGES
WERE DONE TO THE MID/LONG TERM GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POP`S AND
CLOUD COVER AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY
ERODING BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...THEN MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS TO EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AND
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS...A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK...A TUTT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING
TRADE WINDS TO MORE OF A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLOW AND OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AS TROPICAL WAVE AND TRAILING
MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING POCKETS
OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH
PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SUFFICIENT
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE ISOLATED
DURING THE AFTERNOONS BUT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST
CROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE A DEEP MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME WAYS OUT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS. REGARDLESS...THE TENDENCY OF ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER AND POSSIBLY VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN SOME AREAS MAY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
20/16Z AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES WITH ONLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...AFTER 20/16Z SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LEADING TO
PERIODS OF MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS. EARLIER TJSJ 20/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS
FROM THE SURFACE TO FL200 FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCR
W/HT ALOFT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 77 87 78 / 30 20 20 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...IT STILL APPEARS THAT AN
"OVERALL" DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND THE INFLUENCE OF A
SLOWLY WANING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD YIELD A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
BOTH DAYS...TO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...FOR MONDAY...IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WEAK EASTERLY
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST NEAR OR ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONIC SPEED DIVERGENCE...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED THE
WEATHER A BIT IN THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR MONDAY...BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO INCREASED FURTHER WITH TIME AND LATER GUIDANCE.

THEREAFTER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES...MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP SURFACE LOW ON A TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH
NORTH...BUT OPEN THE LOCAL AREA UP TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
INFLUX OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH VEERING WIND FLOW
WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...IN COMBINATION
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...INCLUDING SOUTH TO NORTH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE CURRENTLY INDICATED
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD YIELD SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL MUCH TOO
EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS...THE "POTENTIAL" REMAINS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
PREVAILS. AFT 20/22Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LLVL WINDS EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 87 78 87 / 20 20 30 30

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

PRC013-065-202030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0402.121020T1832Z-121020T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
232 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6658 1832 6662 1834 6672 1835 6673
1834 6675 1835 6682 1839 6681 1842 6683
1849 6683

$$

23

ST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
846 PM AST SAT OCT 20 2012

.UPDATE...SOUNDING AT 21/00Z SHOWED A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AND IN THE SAME WAY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS ALSO DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AS FAR INLAND AS JUNCOS AND ALSO AROUND SAINT JOHN ON
THE WAY INTO SAINT THOMAS. LATEST WRF MODEL GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF
FORECAST ALSO SHOW GOOD POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN ON EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO SO HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN FOR
THE TIME BEING...AND ALL POINTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE ONCE IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN RETURNING
TO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
21/17Z ALTHOUGH MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE LIKELY TO BE
OBSCURED THROUGH 21/22Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ BTWN 21/17Z AND 21/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR CONDS AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 21/00Z TJSJ RAOB AS WELL AS LATEST TJUA VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWED MAINLY SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC TO 20 KFT.

Good morning. We continue to watch the progress of invest 99L in the next few days. Indirect effects may occur in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SUN OCT 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE TUTT LOW REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LEVEL WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SOUTH
OF HAITI...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WAS NOW BEING ENHANCED BY
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MEANWHILE...A WEAKER TUTT INDUCED TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THIS MORNING... WITH WAVE AXIS WAS NOW NEAR 60
WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDINESS WAS
APPARENT ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
LOW LEVEL VORTEX MOVING WESTWARD IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS BLENDED
TWP ANALYSIS AND EARLIER 21/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTED DECREASING PWAT VALUES AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION...STILL EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY. LESSER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE
ONLY FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. LATER IN THE EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TO BRING SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS... FOLLOWED BY MAINLY LOCAL TERRAIN
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH GOOD VENTILATION BY UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY FAIR AMOUNTS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
LATER ON IN THE WEEK STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE TO BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE EUROPEAN MODEL NOW
SHOWED SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...THEN LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS. REGARDLESS OF HOW
FAR WEST OR HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE AND BROAD ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE
NORMAL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS FEATURE
VERY CLOSELY AS BOTH MARINE AND LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 21/17Z ALTHOUGH MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO
ARE LIKELY TO BE OBSCURED THROUGH 21/22Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 21/17Z AND 21/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR
CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 21/00Z TJSJ RAOB AS WELL AS LATEST
TJUA VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED MAINLY SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC
TO 20 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 30 30 30

Here is the San Juan NWS afternoon discussion about the indirect effects for Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST SUN OCT 21 2012

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL
TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW ON A
TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO OUR WEST THROUGH NORTH. NONETHELESS...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL AREA WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
INFLUX OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH VEERING WIND FLOW WITH
HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...INCLUDING SOUTH TO NORTH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF POTENTIAL
MODEL TRACKS...THE CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD STILL YIELD SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY...PROBABLY BEGINNING EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
PROBABLY BEYOND. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR MANY
DETAILS...THE "POTENTIAL" REMAINS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
POSSIBLY FLOODING...LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. STAY
TUNED.

Good morning. All eyes are on what will occur with 99L so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON OCT 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FROM WEDNESDAY TO AT LEAST SATURDAY THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST TWOAT FROM
NHC...THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY
AND THEN HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES...ESPECIALLY JAMAICA CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS OUR FA...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THIS INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL INDUCE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 22/17Z-21Z. AS A RESULT...
MVFR/IFR CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ MONDAY AFTERNOON. 22/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
MAINLY ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS FM SFC TO 10 KFT. ABV 10 KFT WINDS
ARE BACKING WITH HEIGHT REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 50 KTS(NW WIND) AT 45
KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 10
STT 87 77 87 78 / 40 30 30 30

Plenty of rain expected for a good chunck of Caribbean during the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL STORM SANDY...SOUTH OF
JAMAICA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN...WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

FROM WEDNESDAY TO AT LEAST SATURDAY THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY...JUST SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA THIS MORNING. ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST
BULLETIN FROM THE NHC...SANDY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN
CUBA AS A HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SANDY WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...
ESPECIALLY JAMAICA...CUBA AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THE OUTER
BROAD CIRCULATION OF SANDY WILL DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
ENCOMPASS OUR FA...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INDUCE SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOCALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS UNTIL AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER FREQUENCY
IS DECREASING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFT 23/16Z WHEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LCL MVFR/IFT CONDS. LLVL WINDS E-ESE LESS
THAN 15 KT.

&&

MARINE...A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TROPICAL
STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 78 / 20 30 40 30
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 40 40 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
OVR THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS. RIDGE WILL THEN FLATTEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS ERN NOAM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SW ATLC ON THU WITH VERY
LITTLE IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SANDY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS
AND REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU AT LEAST FRI BEFORE IT BEGINS TO THIN
OUT ON SAT. THIS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE AND
THUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS SANDY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOCUSING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
MAINLY OVR THE MONA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS OFF OF NW PR. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR FLOODING AS STORM MOTION WILL BE
QUITE FAST IN THE ORDER OF 25-KNOTS. IF ANYTHING IT WOULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER DUE TO HIGH HELICITIES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
FAST STORM MOTION. LIMITIING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO
BE EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK AND BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO STAY OVR THE MONA CHANNEL. TWO THINGS THAT MOST PEOPLE
WILL NOTICE IS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AND HOT TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG SRLY FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND TJMZ THROUGH
23/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SCA SEEMS LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG
POSSIBLY MAJOR SWELL EVENT AS SANDY TRANSITIONS INTO A VERY
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT GETS SUCKED UP INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE STORM WILL HAVE AN EXTREMELY LARGE RADIUS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW ATLC
AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY. GLOBAL WW3 ENSEMBLE INDICATES
VERY HIGH PROBS OF SEAS EXCEEDING 3-METERS AT 11 SECS WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF SEAS EXCEEDING 4-METERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 84 79 84 / 0 20 20 30
STT 81 81 81 82 / 10 10 30 30

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM SANDY SPREADING BANDING SHOWERS INTO
THE SOUND END OF MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT SOME OF THESE TO GRADUALLY
WORK TOWARDS PR BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH TO BE A FLOODING THREAT
TODAY. FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOWN
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON NORTH SIDE OF MAINLAND PR
WHILE MORE WINDWARD SOUTH SIDE OF PR WILL SEE MORE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER TO HOLD NEAR 2 INCHES AT THE OUTSKIRTS
OF SANDY UNTIL LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON THU. A LITTLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
GREATER UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAKE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MORE LIKELY FOR
CORDILLERA SOUTH TO THE COAST ON THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 59 HAS REACHED 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED...A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE BUT EXPECT WINDS THAT STRONG TO SKIRT A LITTLE WEST OF SJU
MARINE ZONES AS SANDY MOVES NORTH OVER JAMAICA TODAY. ENOUGH WINDS
ARE PRESENT TO BUILD CHOPPY SEAS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF ISLANDS.
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED BY TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLD LYRS BTW FL100-FL250 FM
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FEW-ISOLD PASSING SHOWERS AND L/LVL SCT CLD LYRS
BTW FL020-FL050 WILL REMAIN PSBL IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH ABOUT 24/15Z. L/LVL WNDS SFC-FL100 MAINLY FM
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...THEN VEERING W/HT BCMG MORE SLY
AND FAIRLY LGT WNDS WITH WND SPD LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO FL250.NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 30 20 40 30
STT 87 77 88 79 / 10 30 30 40

Good morning. Moisture will increase in the next few days in PR as the flow changes from the south bringing deep moisture.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IT WILL BUILD AND EXTEND NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS THE
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND NOW
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TODAY. HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUED TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARDS
THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTH NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN
DOING SO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SANDY BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVEL ONLY SHALLOW FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS NOTED MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AT THIS TIME...AS A FAIRLY DECENT SUBSIDENT CAP REMAINED IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OCCURRING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SUBSIDENCE CAP...TO LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENT
WIND FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY STEER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE OF SHORT DURATION ACROSS PUERTO RICO. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TODAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE SCENARIO IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AND OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...AND
MOIST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS SANDY CONTINUES NORTHWARDS. IN ADDITION...
THE ERODING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE DUE TO HURRICANE
SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THAT SAID DECIDED
TO CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY WET PATTERN IN THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR
THE LONG TERM WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANDY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 25/15Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN INCREASE ON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM
25/18Z THROUGH 25/22Z...AFFECTING THE TJSJ AND TJBQ TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 79 / 10 20 30 20
STT 88 79 87 80 / 10 40 40 40

Good morning. PR is under a flood watch today as bands from Hurricane Sandy move thru. I will keep all informed about anything that may occur here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER OR
JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS

AT MID LEVELS...AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAINTAINS A RIDGE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGHER PRESSURE FORMS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MID WEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND BOOSTS THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN BANDS HAVE FOUND CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
COPIOUS RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MOST STREAMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW FLOOD LEVEL AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE INTENSE DURING THE DAY...LEAVING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OR EVEN FLASH FLOODING.
WINDS...HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS DUE TO THE INCREASING DISTANCE OF HURRICANE SANDY FROM
THE AREA. THE TRACK OF SANDY IS SUCH THAT THIS ONE LONG
CONNECTION FROM THE TROPICS TO HURRICANE SANDY MAY EXTEND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL
AREAS WILL STILL SEE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES WHICH REACH AS MUCH AS 1427
METERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SHOW ONLY A
FEW DAYS REACHING 90 IN SAN JUAN...BUT CONSIDER THIS TO BE TOO LOW
AS PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE ALSO REACHED 91 WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THEREFORE HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND EXPECT SAN JUAN TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS UNTIL SOUTH FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
DECENT WIND FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN A FEW SHELTERED
INLAND VALLEYS...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THESE TEMPERATURES STAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF
TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ALL
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z. PASSING SHOWER COULD ALSO
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIST AND TISX TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TNCM AND TKPK
TERMINALS THROUGH 26/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY FAILED TO REACH A SUSTAINED 22
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS SANDY MOVES NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX YET SOME MORE...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS SEAS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SWELL ARRIVE FROM SANDY`S EXTENDED STAY IN
THE CARIBBEAN. SWELL FROM HURRICANE SANDY`S TRACK IN THE ATLANTIC
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 10 FEET OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA AND ANEGADA
PASSAGES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO. WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL FALL DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS THE RAIN BANDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THESE BANDS SHIFT EASTWARD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 80 / 60 50 60 30
STT 88 82 88 82 / 60 60 30 20

Good morning. It looks like Sandys tail will no longer be a big factor in the local weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RETURNS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH TROUGHING DOMINATES
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MOVES NORTH AND INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND FORM NORTH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANGE THE SOURCE OF
AIR FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL...DEWPOINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS AT OR ABOVE TWO INCHES AT ALL THREE
SOUNDERS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 27/00Z SOUNDING WAS RATHER
STABLE FOR THE AREA NORMAL WITH ITS LIFTED INDEX COMING IN AT
MINUS 1.2 DEGREES...LIKELY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE
HOURS JUST BEFORE THE SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED...THE LOWEST TWO
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR MASS WERE ALSO RATHER WARM...WITH THE
HIGHEST PART OF THE LAYER COMING IN AT 24 DEG C. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPID WARMING TODAY. MOS AGAIN TRIED TO GIVE US A MAXIMUM
BELOW 90 DEGREES...BUT NEITHER SHOWERS NOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO HOLD THE HIGHS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO OUT
OF THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE 100-110 DEGREE
MARK. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO RE-IGNITE CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS BARELY
DOWN FROM THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS WOULD EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS
TO SEE MINOR FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
DECLINE FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND SUNDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE
DRIER.

SANDY`S INFLUENCE IS WANING AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS DETERIORATED
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT HELPED...NEVERTHELESS MODELS SHOW
ITS MAIN CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS WILL BE PULLING AIR OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS ALSO SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS THAN SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOW BEGINS TO PULL THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK THAT SHOULD
GIVE RELIEF TO BOTH THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS...THE HUMIDITY AND THE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED DURING THE LAST
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER 27/16Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND GENERATE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE TJSJ TERMINAL. REST OF THE TERMINALS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AFTER
27/16Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE BELOW 7 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 22
KNOTS...ALTHOUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
19 TO 21 KNOTS HAVE GENERATED SEAS AROUND 6 FEET. MODELS APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH BIAS...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWING WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. LATEST SATELLITE
SCANS SHOW THIS IS LIKELY NOT THE CASE. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE SANDY ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AND PEAK
MONDAY. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THAT TIME AND LAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 76 / 50 0 20 10
STT 87 79 88 80 / 40 10 10 30

Good morning. Watch out beachgoers and mariners for high seas.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO REMAINS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT BEGINS BUILDING NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MID-WEEK. THIS HIGH THEN SHIFTS BACK INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CUTS INLAND ACROSS NEW JERSEY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONNECTS TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH
OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE REFORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK GENERATING EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THESE TRADE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THAT BEGAN SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER
LAST NIGHT MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PART OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND
HURRICANE SANDY. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A BAND OF BETTER
MOISTURE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO HAD BEEN STIFLED BY A CAP
IN THE INVERSION AROUND 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET BUT MODELS SHOW THAT
DISAPPEARING THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE
THEY WERE SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN...AND DOWN-SLOPE FLOW OVER
THE NORTH COAST THAT SENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE AND RAPID HEATING WILL COMMENCE. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE CORDILLERA...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS BROUGHT IN BY A SHIFT OF
WIND FLOW TO THE EAST THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
RETURNS AFTER SATURDAY...BUT 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW
1413 METERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER PEAKING AT AROUND 1423
METERS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 28/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 26/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE LOCAL NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO
SUBSIDE AS SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DIMINISH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC. SEAS CONTINUED BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.5 FEET AT BUOY
41043 AS SWELL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY HAVE NOT YET ARRIVED. SEAS AT BUOY 41046 IN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS HAVE CLIMBED RAPIDLY TO 20 FEET AND PART OF THAT SWELL
WILL ARRIVE HERE LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SEAS OF 7 TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 14
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MOST
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT GOES INTO EFFECT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS AND TIMING OF THE SEAS
VARIED WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS OF 7 FEET WOULD NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS WITH SWELL FROM BOTH
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE BUOYS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ALREADY ABOVE 20 FEET HAVE DECIDED TO BEGIN
THE FIRST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE ATLANTIC AT NOON AND THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 92 78 / 0 0 40 20
STT 87 82 86 80 / 20 30 30 20

Good morning. No beach today nor going out in boats as seas are rough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE SANDY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF THIS MORNING...PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF WARNING AND A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE...REFER TO ZONE FORECAST AND CFWSJU
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

MEANWHILE...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RELIEF IN THIS HOT PATTERN.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATE BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EVERY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 29/17Z. A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS TIST FROM BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. AFT 29/17Z
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 40 20 30 0
STT 87 81 89 81 / 20 20 20 20

Good morning. Still the seas are very high here.


.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EVEN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
MEANTIME...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE BY
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...WITH THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR 322K BY
THURSDAY. ALL THESE FACTOR...WILL RESULT IN LESS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.


.AVIATION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER A
MOIST FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BUT CONDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY BTWN
6-25 KFT. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE
FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS...AFT 30/17Z MTN OBSCURATIONS ISLAND-WIDE AND
BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AT TJBQ/TJBQ AND VCNTY. LLVL WINDS SE-S ARND
10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...REFER TO LATEST MARINE AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR
LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 50 0 10 20
STT 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 20

Good morning. The seas are beggining to slowly go down and that is good news.Also,no big weather feature will come to the islands for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST WED OCT 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED SURFACE WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THIS MORNING. AFTER ALMOST ONE
WEEK IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DUE TO THE BIG CIRCULATION
WHICH WAS PRODUCED BY SANDY...FINALLY WE ARE IN A NORMAL WIND FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A SLOT OF
DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
PW VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 1.2 INCHES. THEN...FOR
SUNDAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 31/17Z WHEN SCT-NUMR
TSRA WILL FORM OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ. ALSO ISOLD-SCT TSRA NR TJSJ. WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
AFT 31/16Z. LLVL WINDS E-SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41053 IN SAN JUAN STILL SHOWING 7 FEET AT 13
SECONDS AND BOUY 41043 LOCATED NEAR 200 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN SHOWS 10.5 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. THEREFORE...EXTEND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TROUGH 8 PM AST TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 10
STT 88 77 88 77 / 10 20 20 0