Issac

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 10:49 AM GMT on August 17, 2012

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8. Tropicsweatherpr
1:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
834 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION INFORMATION.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1N...LONGITUDE 51.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 860 MILES EAST OF SAINT CROIX
VI. STORM MOTION WAS W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLOODING OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND NOON AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001 >013-VIZ001-002-
221245-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
834 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. STRONGLY
CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES OR
FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AND DO SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 13 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 63 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS POSSIBLE
FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...AND PUERTO RICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THESE RAINBANDS WILL GENERATE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE RAPID
RIVER RISES ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND GUTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. MUCH DEPENDS
ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE CHANCE OF AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS...AS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PASSES CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REMEMBER...TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
MANY MILES AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
7. Tropicsweatherpr
11:54 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
6. Tropicsweatherpr
6:30 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
5. Tropicsweatherpr
11:42 AM GMT on August 20, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BE
PUSHED WEST BY ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE
INTO A POSITION 950 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. IT WILL
DRIFT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO IN CONTROL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FILL THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. A
TROUGH NEAR 57 WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE
WEAKENING. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST WILL CROSS THROUGH
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF DEVELOPING A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER 50 WEST AT MID LEVELS ON THURSDAY BUT
WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS 60 WEST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS SURROUNDING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...BUT LITTLE RAIN OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS SEEN. A WEAK TROUGH
HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 57 WEST AND IS FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR 53 WEST ALL MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AT AROUND 20
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD ARRIVE BY TUESDAY BUT MAY BE WEAKER THAN THEY
ARE NOW.

BEHIND THIS IS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST LATITUDE. IT IS ENSHROUDED
TO THE NORTH BY A MODERATELY THICK CLOUD OF DUST AND HAS BOTH A STRONG
FEED OF MOISTURE IN ITS EASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND IT COUNTER CLOCKWISE AND COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS DRIER...DUST LADEN AIR HAS LIKELY BEEN THE CULPRIT
THAT HAS CONFOUNDED THE MODELS PERSISTENT FORECASTS OF DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS SAID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND LIKELY BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS IS VERY AMBIVALENT ABOUT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 700
MB...EVEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT FORECAST STRADDLES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE AND
A TROPICAL STORM PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO MOST
OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY SPREADING OVER THE ATLANTIC DEPENDING ON HOW THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
EXISTS...AND CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PROBLEM OF WHETHER A
TROPICAL STORM WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP OR WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL NUDGING THE LOW PRESSURE...
THAT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH...AHEAD IN TIME AS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS DELAYED. NEVERTHELESS WE EXPECT SERIOUS RAIN TO BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE INTERIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS WINDS INCREASE...
EXPECT SEAS TO FOLLOW ALSO SUCH THAT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 12 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE EAST AFTER SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON
WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY WITH AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 6 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY LOW...RAPID RISES WOULD BE
EXPECTED AND SOME RIVERS AND MANY SMALL STREAM WILL LIKELY FLOOD
DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A THREAT OF MUDSLIDES
ALSO EXISTS. SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM FORM...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
RECEIVED WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND COULD BE
EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 80 / 20 30 20 40
STT 91 80 90 81 / 20 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
4. Tropicsweatherpr
2:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2012
Analysis by TV Met Ada Monzon.

This is the analysis of the possible effects by 94L in Puerto Rico made by TV Met Ada Monzon.

DETAILED analysis of the INVEST 94 L - Sunday, August 19, 2012Summary: Based on the GFS forecast and other models (European, HWRF, GFDL, etc.): If the guides are correct, on Thursday may be happening a tropical depression or storm (Isaac) very close to the South coast of Puerto Rico. (Eye: everything can change because as you know always there are variations in the forecasts, both path and intensity, and I do them this summary and warning for the sole purpose of you keep your attention to changes over time in the coming days.)

ITINERARY: From the afternoon of Wednesday, and through all the night must be increased (15-25 mph) breeze, even the arrival of rain bands. However, on Thursday from the morning the wind should increase of 25-45 mph with higher gusts, depending on how close or intense pass future cyclonic system of our coasts. In the evening of Thursday will already decrease the wind. In short, during hours of the day Thursday is that we will have the event of wind and rain, before noon. (Certainly it depends on its translational motion, and therefore this forecast may change)

STRUCTURE: I remind you that forecasts are based to a focal point, but this phenomenon is not a dot on a map, but a wide area of clouds, winds and rains. Therefore, even if the Center passes of 30-100 miles on the South coast, will have effects of rain and windy with very dangerous waves on Thursday. At the time its satellite presentation needs to mature, or needs sustain thunderstorm and clothe the center of circulation or low pressure. If you follow how it goes, you can achieve classification of tropical depression 9 today. The quantities of rain associated with the passage of a phenomenon like this South of PR may vary, but we expect accumulations of 1-4 "/ 24 with this picture.

"TRACK: I think that no major changes have occurred in trajectory forecasts. Virtually all models indicate that your travel will be by the waters of the Caribbean Sea; crossing the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, and passing just to the South of PR in the early morning on Thursday. I will continue to evaluate this.

INTENSITY: Have been changes in intensity forecasts. Models NO longer see a hurricane for our area. It may be in response to four factors: A trough in the high strains of the atmosphere which will take place near 55 ° W, the fact that come moving quickly westward, dust from the Sahara to the North-West of the system, and that has not started other tropical waves which then subtract you energy. This contrasts the factor of waters of high-calorie that face between 50 - 60 ° O. Intensity guides are concentrating on that may be a storm when near PR.

NOTICES: That depends on that threat has winds for PR, and is a long way yet to determine. In addition this determined exclusively the National Hurricane Center and the national service of meteorology of San Juan. There are no warnings issued. Some reminder occur it would be from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
3. Tropicsweatherpr
11:26 AM GMT on August 19, 2012
MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
2. Tropicsweatherpr
12:36 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
1. Tropicsweatherpr
12:56 AM GMT on August 18, 2012
Up to 20%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332

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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

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