Florence

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 10:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2012

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There is a big Tropical Wave that emerged on Wednesday.Let's see down the road what occurs with it as some models are a little bit bullish.

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28. Tropicsweatherpr
10:53 AM GMT on August 06, 2012
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST
PRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND
SUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON.
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 18.1N 51.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
27. Tropicsweatherpr
2:46 AM GMT on August 06, 2012
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

FLORENCE HAD BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE UNTIL A
BURST OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE MASS OF SAHARAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH THE
EFFECTS OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...
HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR FLORENCE TO MAINTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB.

EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO WARMER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER FLORENCE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR FLORENCE TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS...THE LATTER
OF WHICH FORECAST DISSIPATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BEING DISCOUNTED...SHOWS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OF FLORENCE SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...LYING CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.2N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.3N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.3N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 18.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.9N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 22.0N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
26. Tropicsweatherpr
9:46 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

CONVECTION HAS FALLEN APART NEAR FLORENCE...WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS REMAINING. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND THE WIND
SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT. DESPITE THE RECENT
DECAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RATHER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN THE
GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER CLUSTER IS LOWER THAN
BEFORE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR OR BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 3...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD HAPPEN A LOT
SOONER.

FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS
MOTION AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD...AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.3N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 17.2N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.8N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 19.5N 54.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
25. Tropicsweatherpr
5:01 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON
THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF
A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH SOME DEGRADATION NOTED ON
MICROWAVE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES STILL GIVES
A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. THERE
HAS BEEN A CHANGE WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. PERHAPS THIS IS
BECAUSE OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAN WAS
EXPECTED YESTERDAY. IN ANY EVENT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE
MOVING DEEPER INTO THE DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH
SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE RISING...STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY WITHIN
48 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC PREDICTION IS
PRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM
BECAME A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED BELOW GIVEN THE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW THAT FLORENCE HAS TURNED
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A FASTER WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD BRING FLORENCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE THE ECMWF IS A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE STORM. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AT ALL FORECAST TIMES...BUT REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.5N 35.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.7N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.9N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 17.4N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.0N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 21.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
24. Tropicsweatherpr
5:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST TO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTELY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRUCTURAL
CHANGES...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS BEFORE...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT.

FLORENCE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS. THE DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-R PROVING
GROUND SHOWS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND GFS AND ECMWF MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR BY TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN SHEAR.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 13
KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT FLORENCE
WILL BEND TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE NHC
FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST
OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS UP TO THIS POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.6N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.8N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.0N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 19.3N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
23. Tropicsweatherpr
2:55 AM GMT on August 05, 2012
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

FLORENCE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. EARLIER TRMM AND WINDSAT OVERPASSES REVEAL A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE UNDERNEATH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE MASS...
WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION NOW PRESENT. A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC AND THREE-
HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES OF AROUND 3.3 ARE THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. DESPITE BEING IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH A TONGUE OF
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...
EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY A RATHER DRY AIR MASS...AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY FLORENCE ON ITS WESTWARD TREK. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS
SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WOULD NOT LIKELY
BE SIGNIFICANT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EVEN THOUGH THE
STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BY THIS TIME...THE SHEAR
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER
THAT TIME. THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TRACK OF FLORENCE TO BEND TOWARD
THE WEST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. ALTHOUGH
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...IT
REMAINS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK
SOLUTIONS AT LATER TIMES APPEARS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL DEPTH/
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF FORECASTING A
WEAKER VERSION OF FLORENCE AND THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER SYSTEM.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES
BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE CAMP OF MODELS FAVORING A WEAKER
CYCLONE GIVEN THE SHEAR FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 16.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.5N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.0N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 39.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.1N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 20.9N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
22. Tropicsweatherpr
12:50 AM GMT on August 05, 2012
Up to 50kts.

AL, 06, 2012080500, , BEST, 0, 158N, 324W, 50, 1001, TS,
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
21. Tropicsweatherpr
9:49 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER OF FLORENCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCASE PATTERN. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SUGGESTED THAT SOME
PRIMITIVE INNER CORE FEATURES HAD FORMED...AND BOTH AMSU AND ADT
DATA INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
BUMPED UP TO 45 KT.

THE CURRENT SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN WITH FLORENCE APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS
PASSING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26.5C...AND IS APPROACHING A MORE
STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY EUMETSAT RGB AIRMASS
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
THE STATISTICAL-BASED TOOLS FORECAST FLORENCE TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS CONTRASTED WITH THE
WEAKENING FORECAST BY THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS JUST A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE. GIVEN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE STRUCTURE...IT IS
TEMPTING TO RAISE THE WIND PREDICTION MORE THAN WHAT IS INDICATED
BELOW...BUT I HAVE ELECTED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST
CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...295/13. A BUILDING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE FLORENCE TO BEND TO A WESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A WIDER SPREAD THAN
EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT ARE FORECASTING A MORE
POWERFUL SYSTEM...SUCH AS THE GFS...ARE CAUSING FLORENCE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
A WEAKER CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF...WOULD PROBABLY JUST
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD. SINCE THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.3N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.6N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.1N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.5N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
20. Tropicsweatherpr
2:49 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
STILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER. A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14. A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
STEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.8N 30.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.5N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
19. GeorgiaStormz
2:37 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
florence is so boring :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
18. tatoprweather
2:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
It will be interesting what happens once it gets closer to the northern islands. I am particularly interested in anything coming close to PR this year.
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
17. Tropicsweatherpr
11:37 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
Is now Florence.

KNHC 041132
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
16. Tropicsweatherpr
10:46 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT
0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT
VALUE.

THE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.9N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.5N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.7N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
15. Tropicsweatherpr
2:54 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 27.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.5N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.1N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
14. Tropicsweatherpr
2:10 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
Upgrade at 11.

AL, 06, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, TD
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
13. Tropicsweatherpr
1:31 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
00z Models. SHIP goes to hurricane.

WHXX01 KWBC 040055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC SAT AUG 4 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000 120805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 27.2W 14.7N 30.0W 15.4N 32.7W 15.7N 35.4W
BAMD 13.5N 27.2W 14.6N 29.8W 15.6N 32.2W 16.4N 34.5W
BAMM 13.5N 27.2W 14.8N 29.7W 15.7N 32.1W 16.5N 34.6W
LBAR 13.5N 27.2W 14.6N 30.2W 15.8N 33.4W 16.7N 36.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120806 0000 120807 0000 120808 0000 120809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 38.0W 16.4N 44.0W 18.3N 50.8W 21.1N 56.7W
BAMD 17.2N 36.7W 18.9N 41.6W 22.1N 46.2W 25.3N 47.6W
BAMM 17.1N 37.2W 18.7N 43.2W 21.8N 49.4W 26.1N 53.1W
LBAR 17.4N 39.5W 18.9N 44.7W 21.4N 48.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 60KTS 66KTS
DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 60KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 24.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 21.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
12. Tropicsweatherpr
1:11 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
00z Best Track

AL, 90, 2012080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 272W, 30, 1009, DB
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
11. Tropicsweatherpr
11:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Up to 70%

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
10. Tropicsweatherpr
9:29 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
9. Tropicsweatherpr
12:31 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
WHXX01 KWBC 031227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120803 1200 120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.5W 13.3N 27.2W 13.8N 30.2W 14.1N 32.9W
BAMD 12.3N 24.5W 13.0N 26.9W 13.9N 29.2W 14.6N 31.3W
BAMM 12.3N 24.5W 13.2N 26.8W 14.0N 29.2W 14.6N 31.3W
LBAR 12.3N 24.5W 13.1N 27.6W 14.1N 30.9W 15.1N 34.0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120805 1200 120806 1200 120807 1200 120808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 35.2W 13.4N 38.3W 14.6N 42.7W 17.4N 49.9W
BAMD 15.1N 33.3W 15.9N 37.5W 17.5N 43.1W 20.3N 48.7W
BAMM 14.9N 33.4W 15.4N 37.8W 16.7N 43.7W 19.1N 50.3W
LBAR 16.0N 36.8W 17.3N 41.9W 18.5N 46.5W 17.1N 50.7W
SHIP 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS 55KTS
DSHP 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 24.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 21.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
8. Tropicsweatherpr
12:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 123N, 245W, 30, 1006, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
7. GeorgiaStormz
12:23 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
it may develop, but i dont expect much from it before it degenerates.
the wave behind it, 91L-to-be is the first wave i have seen on the gfs that actually comes off africa without hanging around on the coast for days and then it heads for the SE.
a lot of things could make it change course as of right now its timing barely traps it under the high above and a trough is just off from recurving it but that could change as future model runs come in.
Anywhere from bermuda to the east coast is at risk, but the wave comes of africa fairly high in latitude so no further south than FL
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
6. Tropicsweatherpr
12:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
30%

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
5. Tropicsweatherpr
11:06 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
We have 90L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208030916
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012080306, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012
AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 124N, 239W, 25, 0, DB
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
4. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARBADOS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
3. Tropicsweatherpr
12:19 AM GMT on August 03, 2012
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA
ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG JUST S OF DAKAR AND
CONTINUING WSW ALONG 11N21W 10N31W 5N37W TO 6N44W...WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 18W-30W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
2. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
This was in the afternoon hours.



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
1. washingtonian115
10:40 PM GMT on August 02, 2012
Thanks TWPR.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599

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