CSU forecast

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 2:55 PM GMT on April 04, 2012

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I am creating this blog for all to make comments about this April CSU forecast of 10/4/2. This blog will also have the June,August forecasts,and the 15 day ones too. I am sure that Dr Masters will talk about it,but I know that many times,that blog deviates to other themes not related. Here is one topic only,so what do all think of what they are forecasting?

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11. Tropicsweatherpr
1:58 AM GMT on May 04, 2012
Will CSU up their numbers by one or two on the June 1rst outlook?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
10. Tropicsweatherpr
1:23 AM GMT on May 04, 2012
What will they do when they release the June 1rst outlook?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
9. nigel20
11:31 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
I said to you earlier that I generally wait until May to put numbers out there. But as of right now, I believe it is a little underdone, even though odds favor a slow season. I think there will be a lot of local activity. The waters of the Eastern Seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean.

I have to agree with you there hydrus
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8323
8. Tropicsweatherpr
11:30 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think CSU has pretty much gotten it nailed, a weak El Niño with normal to below normal activity. If we were to get a moderate/strong El Nino, these numbers would have to be lower.


Agree 100% with that. The key will be ENSO and second,how will the sst's be in Atlantic during the peak of the season.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
7. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:04 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
I think CSU has pretty much gotten it nailed, a weak El Niño with normal to below normal activity. If we were to get a moderate/strong El Nino, these numbers would have to be lower.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
6. hydrus
10:37 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
I said to you earlier that I generally wait until May to put numbers out there. But as of right now, I believe it is a little underdone, even though odds favor a slow season. I think there will be a lot of local activity. The waters of the Eastern Seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and the western half of the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
5. Doppler22
10:33 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Thanks for the link
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3821
4. nigel20
5:28 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I also agree with what you said. Let's see what occurs eventually with ENSO in the next few weeks.

Over the next two to three weeks we will have a better forecast of what will occur during the hurricane season
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8323
3. Tropicsweatherpr
5:27 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
From CSU forecast:

For Puerto Rico, the probability of a Tropical Storm passing within 50 miles is 26%,a Hurricane is 12% and a Major Hurricane is 4%. I will take it,but wont be complacient at all.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
2. Tropicsweatherpr
5:17 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Thanks for the link Tropicsweatherpr. I think those numbers are more dependent on a moderate to strong el nino....wether or not we will see a moderate or strong el nino is yet to be seen


I also agree with what you said. Let's see what occurs eventually with ENSO in the next few weeks.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
1. nigel20
4:17 PM GMT on April 04, 2012
Thanks for the link Tropicsweatherpr. I think those numbers are more dependent on a moderate to strong el nino....wether or not we will see a moderate or strong el nino is yet to be seen
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8323

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