Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERLY PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A SHARP INCREASE IN PWAT
VALUES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IS FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION THE TUTT NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND ERODE THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVERHEAD. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE
AND WETTER WEATHER CONDITIONS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH MOSTLY
LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE DYNAMICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. AS USUAL...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS BASED ON THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES.

Good morning. We can see plenty of rain and some gusts as the wave moves thru by late Sunday thru Tuesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT WITH MULTIPLE LOWS CONTINUES
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH
FROM THE STRONGEST LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY. A REFLECTION OF THE STRONGER TUTT LOW IS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND MOVES CLOSER DURING THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE
IS SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
COMES WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS... A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. A MUCH STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
WITH BETTER MOISTURE THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER WITH RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE INVADED THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FIRST LEG OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THIS LEG DEVELOPED LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED AXIS
OF THE WAVE LOCATED NEAR 20 NORTH AND 53 WEST AT 27/07Z
APPROACHED THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MIMIC PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH
OF IT AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE WAVE THAT ORIGINALLY
GENERATED IT. THE TWO LEGS FORMING THE INVERTED V SHAPE OF THE
WAVE SHOULD PASS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED ON SUNDAY EVENING BY DRYING AT 700 MB AND THE
SURFACE. BETTER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT TO HOLD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE USVI AND THE WINDWARD PORTION OF PUERTO RICO DESPITE LOW TO
MID LEVEL DRYING. THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AROUND NOON...OR
JUST BEFORE...IN THE USVI AS A GLOBE OF MOISTURE WITH A TAIL
STREAMING BACK FROM ITS TOP. IT CROSSES INTO PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE
"TAIL" THEN CROSSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
PRESENTLY SATELLITE PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE MOISTURE IN THE SECOND
WAVE AND EXPECT THAT THIS WILL NOT WEAKEN VERY MUCH AS IT
APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDIER AND WETTER
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IN CONTRAST TO THE DRIER AND HAZIER
WEATHER THIS WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND THEIR MOISTURE
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME OF THOSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE SECOND
WAVE ENTERS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 27/22Z. HOWEVER... BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TJMZ. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY...BUT FORECAST FALLS JUST SHORT. NEVERTHELESS
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ACCOMPANYING THE INVADING
TROPICAL WAVE MONDAY...WILL CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO WHICH THEY ARE MOVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 10 30 30 30
STT 90 79 90 81 / 30 10 20 40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1030 PM AST FRI JUL 27 2012

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY TO FRESHEN THE WORDING. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS
CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE
FA...INCLUDING TJSJ OVERNIGHT...IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND
THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

A RESPITE FOLLOWS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
EVENING...BUT MORE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AND LIKELY AN
ENCORE PERFORMANCE OF THE SHOWERS HAD OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
STREAMS OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL
KEEP SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF TO A LESSER DEGREE...BRING GOOD
MOISTURE IN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...SLATED...TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS IS BRINGING
THE WAVE IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF
BY ABOUT 14 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAST...ITS
EARLIER ARRIVAL ARGUES WELL FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE WAVE WILL ALSO ARRIVE EARLIER ALLOWING THE
TRAILING BAND OF GOOD MOISTURE TO CONTINUE DELIVERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTION...THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE STILL ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY...AT LEAST IN THE 700 MB LEVEL...WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER LATEST 28/00Z RUN IS NOT AS DRY OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO POINT THE WAY TO A WETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WEEKEND IN EARLY AUGUST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA THEN.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT POSSIBILITIES REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

Here comes the rain from the Strong wave so prepare for that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF 20N IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS ITCZ MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A TUTT LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FOR SUNDAY....A FEW ROUNDS OF
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR..NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF ANASCO...RINCON...
AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALED STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AS
WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
SURGE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ POOLS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA AND MOST TAF
SITES AT LEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TSRA ACROSS
NW PR MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
28/22Z. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW 020-080K FT ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ELY L/LVL WNDS OF 15-25 KTS BLO 20K FT DECR W/HT ABV...AND
FEW CLDS ABV 10K FT...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ATTM...THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO GET 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 80 89 / 30 50 50 70
STT 80 90 81 90 / 40 40 60 70

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH...TO SLIGHTLY ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY
COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS
CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE
FA...INCLUDING TJSJ OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH...TO SLIGHTLY ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY
COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS
CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE
FA...INCLUDING TJSJ OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THEN BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ
POOLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ood morning. That is the theme for today mainly in the NE Caribbean as the strong Tropical Wave moves thru. Let's hope that much needed rain falls in the islands that need it the most. But let's also watch invest 99L in the Eastern Atlantic in the next few days.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS BY THE WEEKEND.



.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD...AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH FAST MOVING PASSING
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT...PROMISE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. LATER
TONIGHT...THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATE WITH THE WAVE...WILL MOVE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BRINGING WITH
IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST GFS90 MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION...INDICATED
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCAL
EFFECTS...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...PROMISE TO
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE LATE TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DRIER AIR MASS AT LOWER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...PROG SOUNDINGS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL GO AS HIGH AS 2.25 INCHES
BY TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES SUNDAY. IN THE LONG
TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE FREQUENT MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 60 60 60 40
STT 89 80 89 80 / 60 60 60 50

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
129 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-310900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.120730T1800Z-120731T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
129 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 2.5" IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AND THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS CLOSE TO 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY TO INCREASE
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 18
HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

AAS/OMS/RAM

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. AS OF 500 AM
AST...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
SOME AFFECTING THE U.S.V.I AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
MAINTAINING ACTIVE WEATHER. THEREFORE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...A DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW VALUES
WILL DROP FROM 2.3 INCHES TODAY...TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE
REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL
FAVOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

BY SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 40
WEST...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCREASING
THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WAVE
WILL DEVELOP IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPCT THIS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BRIEFLY AFFECT TISX AND TIST
DURG REST OF AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS PR...TJSJ...TJNR AND THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES. SFC WND GUST OF 25-35 KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACCOMPANYING THE
MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS.


&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 79 / 60 40 40 40
STT 87 78 87 80 / 60 50 50 40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER PR WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRESS ON
FRI. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST99L EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THE PAST 24 HRS
HAS MOVED FAR AWAY NOW. SIG IMPROVEMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING THIS
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON 00Z JSJ RAOB. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN PR DUE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
CONVECTION CONCENTRATING ACROSS NW PR. THEN VERY DRY THU AND FRI
WITH ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION.

CNTRL ATLC WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING
WITH A POSSIBLE CENTER NEAR 9.7N AND 43.0W. 01/00Z EARLY TRACK
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF PR SAT NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...THE ONLY IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SMALL
CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS FOR OUR CARIB COASTAL WATERS. 18Z WW3
GUIDANCE BRINGS 6-8 FT SEAS ACROSS AMZ732. SO AFTER A BRIEF WET
SPELL THINGS LOOKING RATHER DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO SIG
RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVING WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BUT
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 6KFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE USVI AS WELL AS TKPK AND TNCM...WHILE
ACROSS PR OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TSRA IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR AFTER 01/18Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. SEAS BUILD 6-8 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES
INTO THE CARIB.


&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.56 INCHES WAS SET AT THE SAN JUAN
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 1.12 SET IN 1957.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 86 79 90 / 30 40 10 10
STT 77 82 80 82 / 50 50 20 20

Good morning. We continue to watch the progress of invest 99L.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST WED AUG 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING MAINLY WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND MOSTLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DICTATED
BY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IF IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOST LIKELY THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS FUTURE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY ARE HIGHLY
SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONALLY...IF IT PASSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS MORE OF AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...THE FA WOULD
HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY ITS ACTIVE
WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...THE MOST LIKELY LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH A
ROUGH TIME FRAME OF LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 01/17Z. SCATTERED SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 01/17Z-22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 40 10 10 10
STT 82 80 81 80 / 40 20 20 10

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRESS AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE DICTATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. AT 5 AM
AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST AND WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 18 KNOTS. A WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AT ABOUT
THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER TODAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO ST CROIX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND TO PONCE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL START
MOVING INTO OUR CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SQUALLS BECOMING MORE FREQUENT SATURDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS ST
CROIX AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH SECTIONS...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

WHILE THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII IS STILL FORECAST TO STAY WELL SOUTH
OF ANY LAND AREAS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ST CROIX AND
THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOME OF THESE AREAS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THESE WINDS
TO OCCUR BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO COULD RECEIVE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...BUT THE CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EAST AT
AROUND 15 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFT 03/00Z. VARIATIONS
INDUCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ARE LIKELY BTWN 02/15-21Z. TC IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE FA BY 04/00Z...INCREASING LLVL WINDS
AND THE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO OUR
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY SECTIONS OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 0 10 10 70
STT 82 81 82 79 / 0 10 30 50

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRAJECTORY...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ITS CURRENT TRACK SHOULD MAKE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND PONCE AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE OFF SHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY RESULT
IN INFREQUENT SQUALLS... THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT ON SATURDAY...
AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THE REST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY. SO FAR AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED...WILL BE THE
EASTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX AND A LESSER DEGREE THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRESENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SO FAR COINCIDED ON SUGGESTING THAT
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS ALL BASED ON THE PRESENT SCENARIO
AND FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED
ON NEW INFORMATION RECEIVED FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
HOW THIS FEATURE UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 6 2012

UPDATED TO ADD CLIMATE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NE OF THE AREA THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK HOT WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AREA THEN BECOMES UNDER STRONG UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
RETROGRADING TUTT FROM THE EAST. TUE NIGHT OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH TUTT AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF PR. IN
ADDITION...WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY. WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW OF
FLORENCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS. HAZY SKIES WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FIVE
DAYS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER 2012 DEFINED AS THE MONTHS OF JJA
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST
SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMP OF 84.6F. THE
WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 85.1F.

AT CHRISTIANSTED ST. CROIX...SUMMER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE
THIRD DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH ONLY 1.35 INCHES OF
RAIN MEASURED SO FAR. THE DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD WAS IN 1985 WHEN
ONLY 3.65 INCHES OF RAIN WERE MEASURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 20 70
STT 88 81 88 81 / 0 20 20 70

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND ON TUESDAY BEFORE A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS BRINGING
WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN IN THE AFTERNOON...ALSO...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST FLOW MAY
HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIGGING TUTT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA MAY CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVING WEST ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST BUT LEAVES LINGERING MOISTURE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 1.8
INCHES BUT A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND NAAPS
MODEL INDICATES THAT SOME SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS. HAZY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...BUT MOST VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN P6SM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 18 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 88 / 10 20 70 70
STT 81 88 81 88 / 20 20 70 70

Good morning. A Tropical Wave moving thru the Eastern Caribbean will bring scattered showers to the islands. Also,we are watching Ex Florence and invest 92L.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N 70W WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THU AND HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUTT EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATE
AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROF AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PR. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS WWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATTER SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY ON THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AS HAVING AN INVERTED-V SHAPE.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS AND ERN PR.
WAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING STRONG SHEAR ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT LOW
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
OVER WATER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WATER
WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA
QUICKLY WED MORNING WITH MID LEVEL DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING.

REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU AND
WILL BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE OTHER THAN LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER CONVERGENT
FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE TUTT. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW.

CURRENT INVEST 92L IN THE ERN ATLC DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH ROOM
FOR SURVIVAL AS MOST OF THE GFES MEMBERS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATING AROUND 24 HRS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...
WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT
07/15Z. AFT 07/18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT NEXT FIVE DAYS AND WINDS AROUND 15
KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIB COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 88 80 / 20 70 70 30
STT 90 79 90 79 / 20 70 70 20

Good morning. We keep watching TD 7 as it continues to move west. Tropical Storm watches may be up later today for some of the islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WEST...WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. A SECOND
TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE OR
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT 5 AM AST...
TROPICAL DEPRESION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF SHOWERS...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...JUST
EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT
NO PCPN WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OVERALL
DRIER...STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION...SHOULD
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW
1.50 INCHES UNTIL SUNDAY. THE TUTT LOW OVER CUBA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER WEST AS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A
SECOND TUTT LOW...WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTHWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL BE DICTATED
BY THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE. THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAY STILL RECEIVE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
IT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING WINDS AND AT
LEAST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 10/18Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. TJSJ 10/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS BLW 20 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AND THEN SHIFT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS
WITH SAHARAN DUST AND LIMITED CONVECTION...WILL ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WILL BE DICTATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AND ITS
FURTHER STRENGTHENING (IF ANY) AND TRACK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WE MAY STILL
RECEIVE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FROM IT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 10/23Z. IN ADDITION...
INCREASING SAHARAN DUST WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES BUT MOST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS BY LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 81 90 81 90 / 10 10 20 20

Good morning. Some squally weather will arrive today thru Sunday for some of the islands as TD 7 moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW...NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY AND
SUNDAY AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH NO PRECIPITATION
OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES THIS
MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
DRIER...STABLE AND HAZY AIR MASS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. TJSJ 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CAP AT
6300 FEET WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. IN FACT...PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW 1.50 TODAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
AND FURTHER MORE ON SUNDAY. THE TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCES
OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER DUE TO THE CAP OVER THE REGION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AROUND
24 MPH OR SO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS MOMENT...THE ONLY
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SOME
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH FEW QUICK PASSING
LIGHT SHRA MAY AFFECT FA BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS THROUGH
FCST PRD. ALSO...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP VCNTY TJMZ BTW 11/18Z
AND 11/22Z. RECENT TJSJ 11/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST
WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS EAST WNDS AT 10-25 KTS BLO 20K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 79 / 10 20 40 50
STT 90 81 90 79 / 10 20 40 50

Good morning. Scattered showers with some gusts will be moving thru PR today thru Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SUN AUG 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD...BECOMING LOCATED JUST WEST
TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...NOW AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CONTINUED
TO CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
IT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND WAS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED SMALL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX AND CONTINUING WESTWARDS TOWARDS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWED RISING PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY SURGE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD STILL APPEARS IN THE
EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL BE LIFTED UP ACROSS THE REGION TRAILING THE WAVE. THIS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMERLY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...WILL MOVE THROUGH TKPK AND TNCM BY
AROUND 12/12Z...PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN
+SHRA AND TSRA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TIST AND TISX BY
12/15...SPREADING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI FROM 12/15Z-22Z. BANDS OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 12/18Z...SPREADING
WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HENCE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU 12/14Z ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THRU 12/17Z ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AFTER 12/18Z WITH SHRA AND TSRA WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ENE LLVL WINDS WILL INCR THRU 12/18Z BECOMING 15 TO 25 KT WITH SFC
GUST UP TO 32 KT PSBL...WINDS 5-10K FT 25 TO 40 KT SHIFTING TO ESE
WITH WAVE PSG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 79 / 50 50 40 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 60 60 30 30

Good morning. Some scattered showerscaued by the trailing moisture from ex TD7 will move thru today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST MON AUG 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH ASSOCIATED TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TUTT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...AND BECOMING SITUATED
JUST WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE NOW SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION...WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AND AREA OF
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE CREATED BY THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WAS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESENTLY MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINED OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND MOVE WESTWARD.

DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIL THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AFFECT
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO SHIFT MORE TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EXPECTED MOSTLY FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION IN
ISOLATED SPOTS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT TJPS THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT TJMZ AFTER 13/17Z AND AT TJBQ AFTER 13/18Z RESULTING IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS. LLVL WINDS ARE ESE 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND WILL SHIFT TO E
10 TO 25 KNOTS AFT 13/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS HELPING TO CREATE FAIRLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHALLOW
PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS QUICKLY
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WATERS AND BRUSHING PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...FEW TO ISOLATED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
BRUSH MAINLY SOME OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS A SLOT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON..LOCAL TERRAIN AND AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INDUCE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED. ON FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
ALONG AND AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING TIME OF
MAX HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST AND A DRYER AIR MASS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14/17Z. E-ESE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 10 20 30 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 50 50 20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED AUG 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE PASSING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE USVI AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE VALUES INCREASING TO ALMOST 2 INCHES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ONCE AGAIN COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS
WEEKEND...GFS MODEL INDICATES A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 15/12Z. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS MAINLY BTW 020-070 KFT WITH
ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS...AS WELL AS VCTY TNCM...TKPK..TIST...TISX..AND TJSJ.
EARLIER TJSJ 15/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
SUGGESTS MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS BLO 12K FT AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM
SFC-25K FT. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS IS FCST AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF PUERTO RICO TO THE WEST MAY AFFECT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 88 79 / 30 10 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 40 20 30 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO A MORE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
FRIDAY. INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...INVERTED TUTT AND ITS REFLECTION WILL COMBINE TODAY
WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AT ANY GIVEN
MOMENT...BUT THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

STARTING ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GO
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN K-INDEX FOR SUNDAY. THIS MEANS THAT FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN ON SUNDAY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.


&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF MOIST AND DRY AIR WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING SHRA AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 16/16Z AREAS OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR LCLY IFR CONDS IN WRN PR AND TJMZ
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFT 16/21Z. LLVL
WINDS E TO SE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU 30 KFT. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 30-42
KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 50 20 30 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 50 20 20 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS SHIFTS FROM
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO TO NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN BACK
BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TRANS-ATLANTIC MID-LATITUDE RIDGE
REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE FROM AFRICA TODAY MIGRATES TO NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BY THE LAST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE IN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF A LARGE MASS OF DRY
AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS DRY AIR...HOWEVER...
IS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH BY PULSES OF MOISTURE THAT TRAIL IN FROM
THE POOL OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST...KEEPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT GOOD WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DUST WILL BECOME APPARENT IN THE SKIES TODAY
AND TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY REDUCED ON SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE FROM AFRICA
TODAY THAT MOVES WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TURNS NORTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK TO BE SOME 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARECIBO BY EARLY IN
THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY-WISE
THAN THE ECMWF BUT BOTH HAVE IT ARRIVING IN VERY SIMILAR POSITIONS
BY THE END OF THE 10 DAY FORECAST. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION PROVE
CORRECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WOULD EXPERIENCE
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TODAY FOR THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN. TKPK AND TNCM AS WELL AS TIST/TISX WILL
LIKELY OBSERVE SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER
17/15Z...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PR. TSRA ARE LIKELY
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ...WHILE TJSJ AND TJPS HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA BUT
MORE LIKELY VCTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED TSRA.
ALSO...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY. CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 17/23Z. LLVL
WINDS EAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 20 KFT BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST
10 TO 25 KNOTS BY 18/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. WINDS NEAR SW AND NW PUERTO RICO MAY
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH 20 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 50 40 40 60
STT 89 79 90 81 / 40 30 30 50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012


THE ELEPHANT IN THE KITCHEN...SO TO SPEAK...IS THE GFS FORECAST OF A
HURRICANE PASSING BETWEEN CULEBRA AND SAINT THOMAS LATE SATURDAY.
THIS CAUSES NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO BEGIN THURSDAY AND
STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF TRACKS AND THE GFS LIKELY HAS NOT STABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY.
THE GFS TRACK SOLUTION WAS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS 24
HOURS AGO AND THE 18Z RUN SHOWED THE STORM PASSING TO THE SOUTH A
LITTLE EARLIER...BUT AM UNABLE TO LOAD MOST OF THE PARAMETERS FROM
THIS...18/00Z...MODEL FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY YET IN THE
FORECAST AND THE SEVERITY OF THE CONDITIONS FORECAST...EVEN FOR A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL. SOME CHANGE TO THE TRACK IS LIKELY AND IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL IF THIS WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORMATION IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS SEEMS MORE
LIKELY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY SAY THAT THIS
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE AND PRELIMINARY SEASONAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AND DOUBLE CHECKED...BUT NO CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN
TO THE CLOSE-PASSAGE SCENARIO YET.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE A TUTT LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL
REFLECTION MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REACHING A POSITION WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH A COUPLE OF RESURGENCES OF MOISTURE FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AFOREMENTIONED RE-ALIGNING TUTT...WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
LIMITED AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION AROUND EACH DAY. INVEST AL97 WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTOSTRATUS AT FL120 WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ISOLD TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR TJBQ. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER A MID TO HIGH BKN DECK. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 30 30 10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCTIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
A DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOW MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND OFF OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO WITH LGT-MDT RA AND LCL VSBYS OF 5SM. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BUT CONDS VFR XCP FOR SMALL SHRA/TSRA MOVING NE
INTO SE PR. CONDS WILL GRAD IMPROVE...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL
PASS SW OF PR ARND 27/18Z WITH MORE MID LEVEL CLDS AND SOME -RA.
LLVL WINDS BLO 15 KFT INCRG AFT 27/06Z TO ESE 10 TO 20 KT AFT 27/06Z

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 20 30 10 20
STT 81 89 81 89 / 30 30 10 20

FOR THE SECOND PART OF SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IN THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK
THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A TUTT WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE TROP ATLC ACROSS
THE CARIB MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS LESLIE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING
IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND SUN. NOTE THAT GFS MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 90. MODELS INDICATE
BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING. MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY
WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT JSJ THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE SIG IMPACTS TO AIRCRAT OPERATIONS AT
JSJ.



&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS PROPAGATING FROM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK FRI. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW CWF CARRIES SEAS
UP TO 6 FT HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF SEP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DRIEST
ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF PR AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH DOMINATES. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH SEP 15TH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 80 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 81 81 81 81 / 0 0 0 0