Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 7:29 PM GMT on January 05, 2012

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All the information about this system can be posted here.

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
42.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 43.0E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION,
WITH LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 051523Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNS OF
SOME SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY BETWEEN TAU 24
AND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE
AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

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10. Tropicsweatherpr
8:25 PM GMT on January 08, 2012
Final warning by JTWC.

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHANDA) WARNING NR 003//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHANDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 43.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 43.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CHANDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED
AS TC 05S INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON AGREEABLE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. TC
05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE TERRAIN
OF MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081800Z IS 11 FEET.//
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
9. Tropicsweatherpr
2:07 PM GMT on January 08, 2012
Upgraded to Moderate Storm Chanda

WTIO30 FMEE 081259 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CHANDA)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 43.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/09 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/09 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/10 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=2.5+
THE MAIN CLUSTER REMAINS OVER SEA BUT A PERIPHERAL BAND IN THE MONSOON FLOW CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FA
R TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSES HEAVY AND THUNDERY RAIN ON THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND ALSO F
ROM 14S TO 16S OVER THE ALL WIDTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
SYSTEM FEATURE HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST PAST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS ON MULTISPECTRAL METEOSAT
7 AND MSG2 IMAGERY A WELL CYCLONIC CURVED BAND PATTERN EXTENDING MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-C
IRCLE.
SYSTEM REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED AND THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY
(EVEN WITH MICROWAVE).
08/0611Z ASCAT SWATH COVERS A LARGE WESTERN PART OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AGREE WITH THE RS
MC 0600Z FIX, EVEN IN CENTRE LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 30KT , EXCEPT SOME LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED
40KT WINDS FLAGS.
FROM THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POLAR LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH. OTHER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (EQUATORWARD MONSOON INFLOW, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) ARE ALREADY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER I
NTENSIFICATION.
SHEARED CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN BUT A NEW
WESTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST MAKING
LANDFALL AND THEN DISSIPATING OVERLAND.
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS SHORT AND THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY NEAR MORONDAVA.
0600Z SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS NOW THE MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NO MORE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND TO COME BACK OVERSE
A. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND AS A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY NEARBY THE SOUTH
EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE FROM TUESDAY.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
8. Tropicsweatherpr
12:45 PM GMT on January 08, 2012
WTIO30 FMEE 081228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2012/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 43.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/09 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/09 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/01/10 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5

THE MAIN CLUSTER REMAINS OVER SEA BUT A PERIPHERAL BAND IN THE
MONSOON FLOW CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSES
HEAVY AND THUNDERY RAIN ON THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND ALSO
FROM 14S TO 16S OVER THE ALL WIDTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
SYSTEM FEATURE HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST PAST 24 HOURS AND
SHOWS ON MULTISPECTRAL METEOSAT7 AND MSG2 IMAGERY A WELL CYCLONIC
CURVED BAND PATTERN EXTENDING MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SYSTEM REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED AND THE LLCC IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE PRECISELY (EVEN WITH MICROWAVE).
08/0611Z ASCAT SWATH COVERS A LARGE WESTERN PART OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND AGREE WITH THE RSMC 0600Z FIX, EVEN IN CENTRE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 30KT , EXCEPT SOME LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED
40KT WINDS FLAGS.
FROM THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POLAR LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
BELT REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH. OTHER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (EQUATORWARD MONSOON INFLOW, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) ARE
ALREADY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
SHEARED CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN BUT A NEW WESTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST MAKING
LANDFALL AND THEN DISSIPATING OVERLAND.
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS SHORT AND THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
EARLY MONDAY NEAR MORONDAVA.

0600Z SUGGESTED ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS NOW THE MOST LIKELY.
THE MAIN CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NO MORE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO COME BACK OVERSEA. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND AS A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY NEARBY THE SOUTHEASTERN
MALAGASY COASTLINE FROM TUESDAY.=


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
7. Tropicsweatherpr
10:50 AM GMT on January 08, 2012
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
6. Tropicsweatherpr
1:03 AM GMT on January 08, 2012
WTIO30 FMEE 080049 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5
2.A POSITION 2012/01/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 41.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/08 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/09 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
48H: 2012/01/10 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2012/01/10 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/01/11 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/12 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/01/13 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION MAINLY FED BY THE MONSOON FLOW HAS CLEARLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST HOURS, COLDER,
AND ORGANISED INTO A CURVED BANDING .
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT,EFFICIENT MONSOON FLOW, GOOD U
PPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
NPW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK, THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDF
ALL UP TO 24 HOURS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
ALL AVAILABLES MODELES MAKE COMING BACK OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN THE CENTRE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS, BU
T WITHIN MORE UNFAVOURABLES CONDITIONS, COOLER SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
5. Tropicsweatherpr
10:41 PM GMT on January 07, 2012
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061921Z JAN 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.8S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED
IN A DIFFLUENT REGION 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE IN CONTRAST TO THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES PROVIDING MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). AS A RESULT OF THE VWS, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC, HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
DESPITE THE VWS, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM AMPLE DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT AN
ESTIMATED 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 071507Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS CLEAR LOW-LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURES SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC,
WITH A FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR AFTER WHICH TC 05S WILL DISSIPATE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST
TRACK IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 061930).//
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
4. Tropicsweatherpr
1:21 PM GMT on January 07, 2012
AWIO20 FMEE 071159
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2012/01/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Transequatorial flow is well established West of 60E, and is weak East of 80E. It supplies the
disturbed weather area 99S in the Mozambique channel. Over the Indian Ocean, the ITCZ is poorly
defined and with weak convective activity.
Extratropical Depression EX-BENILDE :
Centred at 1000 Z : near 29.2S/73.6E
Movement : South-South-eastward at about 6 kt
Maximum winds : 30 kt.
Estimated MSLP : 994 hPa
ASCAT data of 0453Z show winds of 25/30kt located far away from the centre (within an area
from 100NM to 300NM radius from the centre in the southern semi-circle). The system is expected
to proceed south-eastwards and merge with a mid-latitudes trough, by 24 to 36 tau.

Zone of disturbed weather in the Mozambique channel:
Animated satellite pictures depicts fluctuating convection. At 1100Z the LLCC is located
approximately near 17.8S/41.3E, about 180km south-west of Juan de Nova. It moves currently eastsouth-
eastward at about 4kt. The MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa. The sea level pressure at the
station of Juan de Nova varied from -2hPa over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are favourable for the deepening of this low : SST of 28-29°C, good
monsoon inflow, weak vertical wind shear, good upper level divergence (cf. CIMSS). The trade
inflow is expected to improve by 12 to 18 tau in relation with the rebuilding of the subtropical
anticyclone south of Madagascar. This system is forecast to develop rapidly within the next 12 to 36
hours. It is forecast to track south-eastward, under the steering influence of a low to mid level ridge
in its north.
According to the avalaible NWP models, this system should make landfall south-west of
Madagascar (in the area of Morondava) during sunday to monday night. This forecast is uncertain
due to the fair confidence in the actual location of the LLCC.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is good in the
Mozambique Channel.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
3. Tropicsweatherpr
12:16 PM GMT on January 07, 2012
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION, WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW,PARTICULARLY ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 061715Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BANDING STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
SEE REF A (WPTN21 PGTW 061930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
2. Tropicsweatherpr
8:23 PM GMT on January 06, 2012
A TCFA has been issued.

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 40.2E TO 21.1S 44.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 40.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION, WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW,PARTICULARLY ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 061715Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BANDING STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
1. Tropicsweatherpr
6:55 PM GMT on January 06, 2012
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION, WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 061519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BANDING.
STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
REMAIN FAVORABLE AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894

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