Rainy next few days in Eastern Caribbean

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 1:36 AM GMT on November 25, 2011

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It looks like those who live in the Eastern Caribbean will go thru a fairly good rainy period starting on Saturday as an upper trough combines with a surface trough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU NOV 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WEEKEND AND INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR TODAY THAN YDAY WITH K INDEX CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO -12 OBSERVED ON THE 00Z RAOB. THE 00Z HI-
RES PR3KM NAM RUN EVEN SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION BECOMING DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER ACROSS THE SW SLOPES. THE LATEST GOES
SOUNDER DATA SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE
GFS FORECAST. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDED THUNDER FOR THE SW. AIR LOOKS MORE STABLE FOR
FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW AND VERY SLOW MOVING.

00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO SPLIT
OFF WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW NOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ON
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT ERN PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ON THE FVBRL RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO SUPPORT A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON. FOR THE REST OF
PR...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SIG RAINFALL WOULD BE MON
AND TUE AS INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CDFNT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC WITH THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING FOR SVRL DAYS NORTH OF COLOMBIA BEFORE TAKING IT
WWD TOWARD CNTRL AMERICA. BOTTOMLINE IS...THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI AND THE ERN
THIRD OF PR.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC FOR AMZ710 TODAY. SEAS XPCD TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SAFE OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT CARIB WATERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STORMY WITH RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 83 78 / 20 20 20 50
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 30



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14. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on November 29, 2011
Things are slowly drying out in the area,but still some rain will fall today in some of the islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST TUE NOV 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AND THUS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
JUST SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE AT THIS TIME. THE WEAK DEVELOPING LOW IS
TO THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH WILL
BRING INTERVALS OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND TO PARTS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN UPPER LEVELS TODAY FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF ANY LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TODAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING WEATHER TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PULLS FURTHER NORTHEAST...AND
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS OVER THE AREA. LINGERING POCKETS
OF MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND IN ISOLATED
AREAS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THEREAFTER...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED WELL ON PREVIOUS
RUN SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH IS TO QUICKLY
PULL NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE
LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS EACH DAY FOLLOWED
BY SOME LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND STEERING MAINLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCAL WIND
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 29/16Z BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL INCLUDING TJSJ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 29/22Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE TO
FL100...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE CYRIL
E. KING AIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY...28 NOVEMBER 2011. THIS TIED THE OLD
RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1982.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 73 / 50 60 30 20
STT 86 75 85 76 / 20 40 30 30

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
13. Tropicsweatherpr
10:40 AM GMT on November 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST MON NOV 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IS STILL FORECAST TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN NORTHWARDS ACROSS
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WITH THE MAIN ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD FOCUSED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE REST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH... AND LINGERING JUST
EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MORNING.

DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS IN AND
AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...STILL EXPECT
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINS ACROSS THESE AREA HAVE LEFT SATURATED AND
UNSTABLE SOIL CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING
RUNOFF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS...RIVERS AND DRY GUTS...AS WELL A MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
AND WAS FOCUSED FOR MAINLY THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
A MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA LIKELY AT TJSJ/USVI
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL
BE LOW BUT MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS. DURG THE MORNING HOURS
SOME MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL ACROSS THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR...
ELSEWHERE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EARLIER 28/00Z TJSJ
SOUNDING SHOWED MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS SFC-15 KFT...
INCR W/HT AND MAINLY FM THE W ABV 15 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 60 60 60 50
STT 85 76 85 75 / 60 60 50 50

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
12. Tropicsweatherpr
8:26 PM GMT on November 27, 2011
The latest discussion says things should start to dry out by Tuesday thru Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ELONGATED TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO THE FA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...A RATHER MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL WEATHER
RATHER UNSETTLED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT
A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND RATHER HIGH POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BUT HAD TO BUMP THEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT REALLY GOTTEN GOING. IN FACT...
ALTHOUGH DO FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EXPAND THIS EVENING DUE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACTING AS A
KICKER...IF CURRENT TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE...NEXT SHIFT WOULD
NEED TO MAKE ANOTHER CHOP AT GRIDS. IN ADDITION...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AS THE "POTENTIAL" DOES STILL EXIST FOR
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE WATCH
AREA...BUT THIS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CUT BACK LATER TONIGHT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TRIES TO ENCOMPASS THE FA
SOMETIME TUESDAY BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT BUT STILL WITH SOME
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AROUND. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY ENCROACH
UPON THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WITH SHRA/TSRA. CEILINGS
WILL BE LOW BUT MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT NEAR SHRA/TSRA
WHERE THE WIND MAY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8 FEET. NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY...MAKING FOR
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OR
WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 50 40 30 50
STT 75 85 76 86 / 70 70 40 50

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
11. Tropicsweatherpr
10:47 AM GMT on November 27, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
AWAY MID WEEK. INVERTED SFC TROF BETWEEN THE USVI AND BVI WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS
ALONG IT AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROF AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
80+KT JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN 24-HR PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER FOR
NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI/LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW...WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
DEEP MOISTURE STILL POSES A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. I WAS TEMPTED
WITH THE IDEA OF REDUCING THE AREAL CVRG OF THE FFA TO JUST
NORTHEAST PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI BASED ON THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE 00Z HI-RES PR3KM NAM RUN BUT THE 03Z SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) STILL INDICATES A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
FARTHER INLAND. ALL DEPENDS ON HOW FAR WEST THE INVERTED TROF AXIS
MOVES IN. MY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE USVI AND FAR NORTHEAST PR
WILL EXPERIENCE SIG RAINS BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
TROF AXIS.

TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE USVI BY TUE WITH DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE USVI BY 00Z TUE. XPC A SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE
WEATHER FOR TUE AND THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND DETERIORATING WX CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN +RA/+TSRA LIKELY AT TJSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT BUOY 41043 THIS MORNING. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IN NORTH SWELLS. SCA ALREADY
IN EFFECT BUT BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE NMRS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ESPECIALLY ATLC WATERS/CARIBBEAN WATERS SURROUNDING USVI AND
ANEGADA PASSAGE TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 70 60 40 30
STT 85 78 83 78 / 80 80 70 40

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
10. Tropicsweatherpr
2:53 AM GMT on November 27, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
928 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

.UPDATE...HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED OVER LAND WITH SEVERAL
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS...ON THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO SHOWERS
ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
DRIFTING IN OVER LAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
SAINT CROIX AND LIGHTER RAIN WAS NOTED AROUND CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOSING STRENGTH FOR THE
MOST PART EVEN OVER WATER AND TOPS ARE BELOW 25 KFT EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY
...AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS INFERRED FROM GFS SOLUTION AT
250 MB. THE MODEL ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DIVERGENCE PATTERN PASSING
THROUGH NOW WILL BE THE BEST OF MANY DAYS TO COME...HENCE
TOMORROWS ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE MORE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH. MAP OF 700 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ALSO SHOWS
BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION NEAR SAINT CROIX BUT MOSTLY OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS UNTIL ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH MOISTURE IN TOW MID WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT NIGHT TIME CONVECTION EVEN OVER LOCAL WATERS AND
HENCE HAVE REDUCED DESCRIPTIVE NARRATIVE IN ZONES FROM WIDESPREAD
TO OCCASIONAL...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL VERY LIKELY OVER MANY AREAS
ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF ISLANDS AND MOUNTAINS.

WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING IN VERY GOOD MOISTURE TO SAINT CROIX...THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING AREAS AND WATERS. NEXT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE AFTER TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCRG CLOUDINESS AND DETERIORATING WX CONDS ARE FCST ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA DURG NEXT 24-48 HRS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP INCR CHANCES FOR
SCT-NUM SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BTW THE NORTHERN LEEWARD AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...VFR COND ARE EXPECTED OVER
PR TAFS SITES WHILE AT THE USVI TAFS SITES AND TNCM/TKPK...
MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. 27/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWS WNDS
BLO FL200 AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...MAINLY E FM SFC TO 5
KFT...BECOMING MAINLY N FM 5-15 KFT.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
9. Tropicsweatherpr
10:45 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-270015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0157.111126T2231Z-111127T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 620 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE RIO FAJARDO BASIN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES IN THE RIO FAJARDO AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERSECTION HIGHWAY 53 AND ROAD 3 IN THE
BORDER BETWEEN FAJARDO AND CEIBA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR
BY AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6562 1831 6562 1829 6567 1826 6569
1828 6574

$$

ER/WS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
8. Tropicsweatherpr
10:39 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

PRC029-031-037-053-087-089-119-270115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0574.111126T2215Z-111127T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
615 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED AND EXPANDED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...LUQUILLO. ..RIO GRANDE
AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 610 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL...ON ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN RIVERS...WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING ON
THE LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6576 1839 6574 1840 6572 1838 6570
1837 6568 1839 6561 1827 6563 1826 6573
1830 6579 1828 6592 1845 6601 1847 6599

$$

ER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
7. Tropicsweatherpr
9:49 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
Flash Flood Warning.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC119-270000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0156.111126T2142Z-111127T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 525 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAS CAUSED SHARP RISES ON THE ESPIRITU SANTO RIVER
AT RIO GRANDE. AT 5:27 PM AST...USGS RIVER SENSOR AT ESPIRITU SANTO
RIVER INDICATED 8.11 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE IS 9
FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1842 6581 1843 6580 1842 6579 1841 6576
1833 6580 1834 6585 1843 6583 1843 6582

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
6. Tropicsweatherpr
9:16 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
Updated Flash Flood Watch until Sunday evening.

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-271000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0014.111127T0000Z-111128T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...A NNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
440 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM AST THIS EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM 8 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING

* A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EAST OF BERMUDA
SOUTHWEST TO THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO ON
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS STARTING TONIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL HELP DIRECT
THE MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...WEAKEN AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST ALONG
BACK OF THE SURFACE TROF. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR.

* AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SAINT CROIX...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...WITH OTHER AREAS ALSO AT
RISK OF UP TO FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES IN THE WETTEST AREAS
INCLUDING NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SAINT CROIX AND AROUND EL YUNQUE NATIONAL RAIN
FOREST. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS AND DRY GUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
5. Tropicsweatherpr
8:25 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
I suspect many of these will pop up.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

PRC029-031-087-089-119-262215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0573.111126T2015Z-111126T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
415 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...LUQUILLO...RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 413 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF RIO GRANDE AND LUQUILLO IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AT
LEAST UNTIL 615 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6575 1839 6574 1840 6572 1838 6570
1837 6568 1830 6572 1832 6595 1845 6601
1847 6599

$$

ER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
4. Tropicsweatherpr
8:15 PM GMT on November 26, 2011


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
3. Tropicsweatherpr
8:13 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
The Flash Flood watch was issued this morning.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-262030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0014.111127T0000Z-111128T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...A NNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
430 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...
SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWEST
TO THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS STARTING TONIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TIME
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM ALONG IT AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE GENERALLY EAST NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR.

* WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SAINT CROIX AND AROUND EL YUNQUE
NATIONAL RAIN FOREST. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS AND DRY GUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

ROSA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
2. Tropicsweatherpr
8:10 PM GMT on November 26, 2011
No change from the rainy scenario.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DIGGING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY
INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THAT...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...AFTER NOON...SHOWERS
BEGAN DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS IN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO HAS
REMAINED DRY.

FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW AN INCREASE IN OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. PW VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES WITH
DECENT VENTILATION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MONDAY AS GLOBAL MODELS INSIST IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OVER THE CARIBBEAN STARTING LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
HOWEVER AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT PSBL OVR THE INTERIOR AND
NRN HALF OF PR. THIS WILL LEAD TO VCSH OR VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES
TIL AT LEAST 26/23Z. THEREAFTER...INCRG CLOUDINESS AND
DETERIORATING WX CONDS IS FCST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA DUE TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH DURG NEXT 24-48 HRS. THIS FEATURE WILL
HELP INCR CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE STILL AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET. HOWEVER BUOY 41043
HAS INCREASED TO OVER 6 FEET WITH 11 SECOND PERIOD AND BUOY 41046
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA REPORTED WAVES OF 9.5 FEET AND
9 SECOND PERIOD. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT TO AT LEAST MONDAY.
THE EASTERN LOCAL PASSAGES AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAY INCREASE AND
MEET SCA CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 83 / 70 70 30 40
STT 77 85 77 84 / 80 70 60 60

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
1. Tropicsweatherpr
11:27 AM GMT on November 25, 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
UNFOLDING PATTERN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY
SUNDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC SPREADS
FURTHER EAST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. FURTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIFT
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLIES CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT SMALL
PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. SO FAR NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NORTHWARDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL INDUCING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE STILL HOWEVER REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AS SOME MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE PWAT
VALUES ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO JUMP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE AND LOOK
FOR INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTAINING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BASED
ON OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF THE FA...BUT ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND EXACTLY WHERE THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED
AS FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY AS THIS
EXPECTED WETTER PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 84 / 20 50 50 70
STT 75 84 75 85 / 40 40 70 70

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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

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