Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

When will the first named storm form in North Atlantic?

By: Tropicsweatherpr, 4:09 PM GMT on May 20, 2013

This is a good simple question to ask as June 1rst approaches rapidly. Vote for the letter you think the first named storm (Andrea) will form. I vote for C.

A-End of May
B-June 1-10
C-June 11-20
D-June 21-30
E-July 1-10
F-July 11-20
G-July 21-31
H-August and beyond

2013 North Atlantic Poll

Updated: 4:10 PM GMT on May 20, 2013

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May daily weather in Puerto Rico / USVI

By: Tropicsweatherpr, 10:32 AM GMT on May 01, 2013

Good morning. A very rainy pattern will unfold starting today and lasting thru early next week for the Eastern Caribbean islands. Stay tuned for more information as time goes by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST WED MAY 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS LARGELY
UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
STRONGLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE JET STREAM
ARCHES TO THE NORTH. FLEETING AREAS OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 6 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE AREA.
RIDGING REPLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AFTER TUESDAY. MID
LEVELS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY AND INCREASES AREA-WIDE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE GFS IS BEST ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AND BRING UP MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW DOES NOT RETURN
TO NORMAL UNTIL VERY LATE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
PUERTO RICO. NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ALTHOUGH SAINT CROIX DID PRODUCE A STREAMER WITH A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS MORE THAN 100 MILES LONG. SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
PUERTO RICO EXCEEDED ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT WITH QUITE THE
SAME INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE BECOME MOSTLY EASTERLY
WHILE WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST SO THE EXACT
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. SPECIFICALLY THIS COULD MEAN HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER SAN JUAN AND MORE ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THE
EVENING AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES AND BETTER DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND EVERY DAY THIS WEEK UNTIL TUESDAY
WITH ONLY ONE INTERRUPTION NOTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL VENTILATED BY THE JET STREAM THAT
REMAINS CLOSE OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND AIDED BY THE FLEETING
AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT OFTEN CORRESPOND TO THE BEST
HEATING AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING WINDS
TODAY WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS CHANGE ON SUBSEQUENT SOUNDINGS AND
INDEED AFTERNOON BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS REMAIN BELOW 120 AND GO
AS LOW AS 14 SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGEST THAT
UPDRAFTS CAN BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. ALSO SOUNDINGS BECOME
MORE AND MORE SATURATED AS THEY GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY WHEN THE
BEST MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THEY DID PEAK TO 2 INCHES
OVER BAYAMON WHEN CONVECTION BEGAN PUSHING MOISTURE HIGHER INTO
THE ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LED TO MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 48 MM MOVING OVER SAINT CROIX THIS MORNING
AND POSSIBLY PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER TO CONFIRM THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.

FORECASTS ARE CONTINUING TO SET THE AREA UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION SINCE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ADD TO THE SATURATION OF SOILS AND RIVER
RUN-OFF EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WEEKEND AT THE
LATEST. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO POSTPONE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EACH
DAY...AND 5 DAY TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 12 TO 16 INCH
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
AT LEAST 4 INCHES DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EMERGENCY AND WATER MANAGERS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT MOSTLY VFR. BUT OCNL MVFR/ISOLD IFR BY AFT 01/16Z AT
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE ISOLD/SCT
MVFR IN SHRA. LLVL WINDS E-ESE 6-14 KT BLO FL050 VEERING TO WEST ABV
AND INCR WITH HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
INCLEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUESDAY WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 76 / 60 40 60 20
STT 84 74 84 77 / 30 40 50 50

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