This is the October blog for daily weather in Puerto Rico and the rest of Caribbean.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST...OVER THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE VICINITY OF PONCE...AND LATER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCE BY
THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH IS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL REGION IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLOT OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR 1.10 INCHES AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB AT 315K.
IF THIS VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY MOST PROBABLY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
THE EAST WIND FLOW WHICH IS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME...IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TRJMZ..AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 60 30 20 20
STT 80 89 79 90 / 60 30 20 20
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Updated: 5:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2012
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