Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

Puerto Rico and Eastern Caribbean Blog #2

By: Tropicsweatherpr, 8:35 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

Second blog for daily weather in PR and Eastern Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A TUTT WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE TROP ATLC ACROSS
THE CARIB MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS LESLIE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING
IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND SUN. NOTE THAT GFS MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 90. MODELS INDICATE
BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING. MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY
WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT JSJ THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE SIG IMPACTS TO AIRCRAT OPERATIONS AT
JSJ.



&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS PROPAGATING FROM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK FRI. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW CWF CARRIES SEAS
UP TO 6 FT HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF SEP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DRIEST
ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF PR AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH DOMINATES. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH SEP 15TH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 80 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 81 81 81 81 / 0 0 0 0

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