Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

Rainy next few days in Eastern Caribbean

By: Tropicsweatherpr, 1:36 AM GMT on November 25, 2011

It looks like those who live in the Eastern Caribbean will go thru a fairly good rainy period starting on Saturday as an upper trough combines with a surface trough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU NOV 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WEEKEND AND INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR TODAY THAN YDAY WITH K INDEX CLIMBING TO NEAR 30 THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO -12 OBSERVED ON THE 00Z RAOB. THE 00Z HI-
RES PR3KM NAM RUN EVEN SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION BECOMING DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER ACROSS THE SW SLOPES. THE LATEST GOES
SOUNDER DATA SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO THE
GFS FORECAST. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDED THUNDER FOR THE SW. AIR LOOKS MORE STABLE FOR
FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW AND VERY SLOW MOVING.

00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM SAT
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO SPLIT
OFF WITH A H5 CUTOFF LOW NOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ON
SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN. IT APPEARS THAT ERN PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ON THE FVBRL RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO SUPPORT A ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON. FOR THE REST OF
PR...IT APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SIG RAINFALL WOULD BE MON
AND TUE AS INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CDFNT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC WITH THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING FOR SVRL DAYS NORTH OF COLOMBIA BEFORE TAKING IT
WWD TOWARD CNTRL AMERICA. BOTTOMLINE IS...THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF WET WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIG RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI AND THE ERN
THIRD OF PR.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC FOR AMZ710 TODAY. SEAS XPCD TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SAFE OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT CARIB WATERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY STORMY WITH RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
STARTING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 83 78 / 20 20 20 50
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 30



Flood

Updated: 2:48 AM GMT on November 27, 2011

Permalink

Is the active Multi-Decadel since 1995 turning less active?

By: Tropicsweatherpr, 3:25 AM GMT on November 19, 2011

Since 1995 as we know,it has been active in the North Atlantic basin with only a handfall of seasons that were average.But the number of hurricanes has gone down in general. I found this discussion by the experimental GFDL very interesting.

Link

Link

Hurricane

Updated: 3:46 AM GMT on November 19, 2011

Permalink

About Tropicsweatherpr

I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
81 °F
Scattered Clouds

Tropicsweatherpr's Recent Photos

Hurricane Gilbert