Teenager. Weather aficionado. Soccer fan. Realist. Posts subject to sarcasm. Goal: National Hurricane Center.
By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 8:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
The first tropical depression of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season has developed, according to the 8 AM PDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 mph, with a minimum pressure of 1006 mb. The official forecast calls for TD #1 to move very slowly to the northwest, with gradual intensification. Ultimately, the NHC is forecasting intensification into an upper-end Category 1 hurricane by the weekend, with a gradual decline in strength thereafter, likely due to strong Wind Shear. No watches or warnings have been issued yet, probably because the threat to land is fairly minimal. Visible satellite loops show well-defined banding features, and nice inflow coming into the center of circulation. Water Vapor satellite loops reveal that TD #1 is in a fairly dry environment, but this should not hinder development too much. Lastly, CIMSS Tropical Cyclones analysis reveals that Wind Shear is a moderate 15-20 knots, but an anticyclone is situated close to the southeast, which will prevent the shear from increasing.
Figure 1. RGB satellite imagery of TD #1 in the Eastern pacific.
Forecast for TD #1
My forecast for TD #1 is very similar to the National Hurricane Center's, with gradual intensification, along with slow movement to the northwest. I do see this system becoming an 80-90 mph Category 1 hurricane before it begins to weaken, with the possibility of a slightly higher storm, depending on how fast it intensifies over the next few days. Sea Surface temperatures are approximately 30 °C, well above the threshold for a tropical system to be able to sustain itself. I do not see TD #1/soon-to-be-Adrian being a threat to land, and if it is, only some light rain or cloud cover will occur. Here is my forecast for the system in 24-hour intervals:
Current: 30 mph/1006 mb.
24 hr: 45 mph
48 hr: 70 mph
72 hr: 85 mph
120 hr: 75 mph
(I expect TD #1 to reach peak strength between hours 72 and 120, at 90 mph.)
94L no threat to develop
After putting up a valiant fight, it appears that it is time to discount 94L as the first tropical depression of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. After several days of very favorable conditions, Wind shear is on the increase, and its chances of development into a tropical cyclone are near 0%. Heavy rains are still a concern for Cuba, Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic however. The forecast for this Invest is for it to move very slowly to the N, or possible the NNW, before entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Needless to say, development is not expected in this area either, with high Wind shear. It is possible that this system could bring some much-needed rain to the drought-stricken state of Florida by the weekend. But we can only hope and pray. This is the last time I will mention 94L.
Figure 2. Visible satellite imagery of Invest 94L.
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