Tropical Depression One-E forms in the Pacific; 94L unlikely to develop

By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 8:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Share this Blog
3
+

The first tropical depression of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season has developed, according to the 8 AM PDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 30 mph, with a minimum pressure of 1006 mb. The official forecast calls for TD #1 to move very slowly to the northwest, with gradual intensification. Ultimately, the NHC is forecasting intensification into an upper-end Category 1 hurricane by the weekend, with a gradual decline in strength thereafter, likely due to strong Wind Shear. No watches or warnings have been issued yet, probably because the threat to land is fairly minimal. Visible satellite loops show well-defined banding features, and nice inflow coming into the center of circulation. Water Vapor satellite loops reveal that TD #1 is in a fairly dry environment, but this should not hinder development too much. Lastly, CIMSS Tropical Cyclones analysis reveals that Wind Shear is a moderate 15-20 knots, but an anticyclone is situated close to the southeast, which will prevent the shear from increasing.


Figure 1. RGB satellite imagery of TD #1 in the Eastern pacific.

Forecast for TD #1
My forecast for TD #1 is very similar to the National Hurricane Center's, with gradual intensification, along with slow movement to the northwest. I do see this system becoming an 80-90 mph Category 1 hurricane before it begins to weaken, with the possibility of a slightly higher storm, depending on how fast it intensifies over the next few days. Sea Surface temperatures are approximately 30 °C, well above the threshold for a tropical system to be able to sustain itself. I do not see TD #1/soon-to-be-Adrian being a threat to land, and if it is, only some light rain or cloud cover will occur. Here is my forecast for the system in 24-hour intervals:

Current: 30 mph/1006 mb.
24 hr: 45 mph
48 hr: 70 mph
72 hr: 85 mph
120 hr: 75 mph

(I expect TD #1 to reach peak strength between hours 72 and 120, at 90 mph.)

94L no threat to develop
After putting up a valiant fight, it appears that it is time to discount 94L as the first tropical depression of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. After several days of very favorable conditions, Wind shear is on the increase, and its chances of development into a tropical cyclone are near 0%. Heavy rains are still a concern for Cuba, Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic however. The forecast for this Invest is for it to move very slowly to the N, or possible the NNW, before entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Needless to say, development is not expected in this area either, with high Wind shear. It is possible that this system could bring some much-needed rain to the drought-stricken state of Florida by the weekend. But we can only hope and pray. This is the last time I will mention 94L.


Figure 2. Visible satellite imagery of Invest 94L.

TropicalAnalystwx13

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 12 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

12. KoritheMan
6:32 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 11. Astrometeor:


.....


You should watch Hellsing. That's where that came from.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21678
11. Astrometeor
6:26 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 10. KoritheMan:


Tonight... looks like a good night to have a bite to drink [your blood].

;)


.....
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 102 Comments: 10718
10. KoritheMan
6:21 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 9. Astrometeor:


Gulp.

I should go buy a gun now.


Tonight... looks like a good night to have a bite to drink [your blood].

;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21678
9. Astrometeor
6:20 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 8. KoritheMan:


I said I stalk you.

Prepare to die.

*gets club*


Gulp.

I should go buy a gun now.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 102 Comments: 10718
8. KoritheMan
6:18 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 7. Astrometeor:


I thought you wrote daily tropical weather updates, not stalk Cody's blog, lol.


I said I stalk you.

Prepare to die.

*gets club*
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21678
7. Astrometeor
6:16 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 6. KoritheMan:


Because you commented on it.

I'm a stalker, didn't you know? It's what I do after work.


I thought you wrote daily tropical weather updates, not stalk Cody's blog, lol.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 102 Comments: 10718
6. KoritheMan
6:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 5. Astrometeor:


I wanted to go and find people's earliest available posts.

Why are you commenting on this?


Because you commented on it.

I'm a stalker, didn't you know? It's what I do after work.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21678
5. Astrometeor
6:09 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 4. KoritheMan:
Why are we commenting on this?


I wanted to go and find people's earliest available posts.

Why are you commenting on this?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 102 Comments: 10718
4. KoritheMan
6:04 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Why are we commenting on this?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21678
3. Astrometeor
5:50 AM GMT on September 08, 2013
Well, this is the earliest entry out of you I could find Cody. Why are so many of your early posts deleted?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 102 Comments: 10718
2. KoritheMan
1:21 AM GMT on June 08, 2011
Thanks for the update.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21678
1. CalebDancemastah
8:13 PM GMT on June 07, 2011
Looks like some nice wave action to come along the Baha Peninsula from potential Hurricane Adrian... You know it's interesting when I zoom out on the satellite of both systems you can almost draw a line & make out a trough of low pressure.
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51

Viewing: 12 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About TropicalAnalystwx13

Teenager. Weather aficionado. Soccer fan. Realist. Posts subject to sarcasm. Goal: National Hurricane Center.

TropicalAnalystwx13's Recent Photos

We will never forget
USA World Cup
Hurricane Katrina Infrared imagery
Beautiful terror