Tropical Storm Raymond intensifying again, likely to regain hurricane intensity

By: TropicalAnalystwx13 , 4:32 AM GMT on October 27, 2013

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Tropical Storm Raymond is still spinning in the East Pacific tonight, a week after first being designated as a tropical cyclone. Since its inception, Raymond has managed to attain Category 3 hurricane intensity, the first in the West Hemisphere in 2013! If you would have told me back in June that on October 27, 2013 we would be sitting with 1 major in the East Pacific and no majors in the Atlantic, I would have called you insane. The system has since weakened but it remains a tropical storm that has most recently started an intensification trend again. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds were up to 65 mph and the minimum barometric pressure was down to 997 millibars. Raymond was moving west at 10 mph, far away from any landmasses. Infrared satellite imagery shows a well-developed system, with deep convection bursting over the low-level center. Microwave imagery revealed a closed...yet loose...eyewall. The latest satellite intensity estimates are T3.0/45kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT...and T3.5/55kt from TAFB.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite imagery of Hurricane Raymond on October 21, 2013. At this time, Raymond packed sustained winds of 120 mph, making it the first major hurricane in the East Pacific and West Hemisphere during 2013.

Forecast for Raymond
Tropical Storm Raymond is currently tracking westward at 10 mph under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the cyclone's north. This motion should continue for the next few hours before a gradual turn towards the west-northwest occurs as the high shifts ever so slightly eastward. By 24 hours out, a potent upper-level trough currently west of California is expected to progress eastward while digging down, opening a passageway for Raymond to turn north and then abruptly northeastward. When exactly this turn occurs is dependent on how strong Raymond becomes; a stronger cyclone will feel the weakness more and turn quicker accordingly. The ECMWF depicts this and I see no reason why to disagree. As the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallower system, a developing disturbance to the east may be capable of drawing its remnant circulation southward while the remaining mid-level energy streams towards Baja California.

Raymond has finally begun an intensification phase tonight. The system has perplexed most of us for the past 24 hours by refusing to intensify despite warm sea surface temperatures, light wind shear, and a relatively moist environment. Unlike the system at peak intensity, Raymond has been moving at a steady clip...therefore eliminating the possibility of upwelling. The only factor that I could see preventing intensification upon investigation was warm mid- to upper-level temperatures. Regardless of what prevented strengthening, it has since abated as evidenced by latest satellite developments. Given the favorable atmospheric environment, this intensification trend is expected to continue over the next day or so, and it would not surprise me to see Raymond become a moderate Category 1 hurricane again. By 36 hours and beyons, strong vertical wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures, and a drier environment will all lead to rapid weakening of the cyclone. It is unlikely Raymond will survive through the entire forecast period.

INIT 27/0300Z 13.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 13.5N 115.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 15.3N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 16.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 16.5N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic remains quiet as it has for an overwhelming majority of this "season" and there is nothing of significance in the basin to watch. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has decent model support to become a weak tropical cyclone before upper-level winds shear it and/or it interacts with the Greater Antilles. As of this blog post, the season total stands at 12 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes. 2013 is the first season since 2002 to feature no hurricanes through August. With an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of 29 units, this season has been one of the quietest in decades. Though many systems have formed in the Bay of Campeche and hit Mexico, the death toll as best known is 47 and the damage total is $1.51 billion, nearly all of which from Hurricane Ingrid solely.

TropicalAnalystwx13

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11. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:46 AM GMT on January 12, 2014
TropicalAnalystwx13 has created a new entry.
10. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:07 AM GMT on January 06, 2014
Quoting 7. Astrometeor:
Cody? When is a new blog coming? This one is almost as old as Gro.

When I find something interesting to blog about.

Quoting 8. DaveFive:
On January 5, 2014 I have read an article in Time Magazine January 13, 2014 issue page 40 that talks about the return of El Nino later this winter. If El Nino arrives, then my prediction for snow at sea-level will be cancelled.

I won't rule out the possibility, but I'm not entirely sold on the formation of an El Nino. The long-term pattern we're in (negative PDO) tends to suppress the chances of a substantial and long-lived event, much like what we've seen the past two years. Both statistical and dynamical models for the ENSO have been far from accurate the past two years, so I don't put much stock into those.

In the short term, the ENSO remains cool Neutral. I don't see any signs of that changing anytime soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31866
9. Astrometeor
3:06 AM GMT on January 06, 2014
Quoting 8. DaveFive:
On January 5, 2014 I have read an article in Time Magazine January 13, 2014 issue page 40 that talks about the return of El Nino later this winter. If El Nino arrives, then my prediction for snow at sea-level will be cancelled.


I've heard that predicting El Nino while in ENSO Neutral is near to impossible. El Nino is long overdue, it's just a matter of time. Watch those surface temps off of South America in the Pacific.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10221
8. DaveFive
3:04 AM GMT on January 06, 2014
Quoting 6. DaveFive:
Central California has a drought going on as well as my location. This type of pattern increases the chance for this area to have a snow day or two up to 100%. This is due to the long term Pacific high pressure blocking warm and cold fronts from the south and west. Eventually, this blocking high will allow weather fronts to enter our region from the north and east bringing arctic air and moisture during the first week in February and March.
On January 5, 2014 I have read an article in Time Magazine January 13, 2014 issue page 40 that talks about the return of El Nino later this winter. If El Nino arrives, then my prediction for snow at sea-level will be cancelled.
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 311
7. Astrometeor
6:43 AM GMT on January 03, 2014
Cody? When is a new blog coming? This one is almost as old as Gro.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10221
6. DaveFive
1:28 PM GMT on January 02, 2014
Hi TropicalAnalystwx13, thank you for the info on Weather Chat. Central California has a drought going on as well as my location. This type of pattern increases the chance for this area to have a snow day or two up to 100%. This is due to the long term Pacific high pressure blocking warm and cold fronts from the south and west. Eventually, this blocking high will allow weather fronts to enter our region from the north and east bringing arctic air and moisture during the first week in February and March.
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 311
5. DaveFive
12:08 PM GMT on November 09, 2013
Hello TropicalAnalystwx13, I am Dave from San Jose, CA. Excellent photo on Hurricane Raymond and the info too. The weather in San Jose has been precipitation free since April.
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 311
4. GTstormChaserCaleb
4:42 AM GMT on October 27, 2013
Thanks for the blog post, Cody. I'm really confident we are going to get a system in the Caribbean in November. If this was an El-Nino year I would say otherwise, but we are still in Neutral conditions and sea surface temperatures are still plenty warm enough to support a storm and storms can still develop even in the presence of wind shear.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8069
3. nigel20
4:42 AM GMT on October 27, 2013
Thanks Cody!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7973
2. KoritheMan
4:37 AM GMT on October 27, 2013
See more evidence of a weak low than a weak cyclone on the models for that Caribbean system...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
1. Astrometeor
4:35 AM GMT on October 27, 2013
1 month and 3 weeks later...Cody posts a new blog.
Finally!
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10221

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About TropicalAnalystwx13

Teenager. Weather aficionado. Soccer fan. Realist. Posts subject to sarcasm. Goal: National Hurricane Center.