|By: TheDawnAwakening2, 3:25 AM GMT on August 30, 2010||+0|
Forecast track for Earl, updated in two nights, or earlier if forecast track is off.
00 hours intensity: 70 knots
24 hours intensity: 90 knots
48 hours intensity: 110 knots
72 hours intensity: 130 knots
96 hours intensity: 110 knots
120 hours intensity: 105 knots
Hurricane Earl could have serious impacts on the US East Coast by Thursday of this week.
Currently Earl has an intensity of 70 knots according to the Navy: Link
(note: this blog entry was originally writen earlier)
. Earl is currently 978mb and 70 knot winds, with a movement to the west, northwest at 15mph. Current steering currents for a system of Earl’s intensity shows a rather moderate weakness in the currents to the north and northeast of him. This should continue to move away from Earl just as Danielle moves away. Ridging is expected to move in to the north of Earl and continue to steer him to the west, northwest over the first 48 hours, followed by a turn to the northwest towards days 3 and then northward by day 4 and north, northwestward by day 5. Earl could bring some rain and wind to the Outerbanks of NC by day 4 and 5 if the model consensus was to be trusted. A large negatively tilted trough with the main axis over the Great Lakes where a closed upper level vort max is located by days 4-5 will allow Earl to be captured and pulled more to the north, following the 12z EURO for a consensus track. 12z CMC is further west with the low, while 12z GFS is right on par or slightly to the east of the EURO. Model consensus is in rather good shape through the first five days of Earl’s projected track. However after day 5, models diverge as some take him more to the northwest, and others take him more to the northeast and out to sea. With hurricane Earl expected to reach an intensity of 120mph or greater, I expect the move northeastward will happen sooner and further southeast allowing Earl to slightly miss the US East Coast and head towards Nova Scotia where they could be expecting an extratropical cyclone to impact the region. Now with a +PNA building back in, in the next 5-6 days, I expect a more amplified central CONUS trough, as the ridge upstream amplifies, so will the trough downstream. This trough will be centered over the Great Lakes this go around, rather then over the eastern US coastline which is what happened with Danielle this past weekend. As a result of this amplification of the central US trough, the associated cold front will be more amplified as well, slowing in nature and also becoming more aligned north to south, rather then east to west. So given the flow ahead of the cold front is roughly SW to S or even SE, I expect Earl could be pulled closer to the Eastern US Coast, than currently forecasted above.
So therefore, my days 5-7 cone includes much of the eastern US coastline as uncertainty in the exact orientation of the 500mb trough will determine exactly where and in which direction Earl will go up the East Coast. Right now an out to sea solution splitting through Bermuda and NC and up the coast until 30-35n is best fit for this pattern. Also the trough is more so longwave in nature which should naturally allow the Hurricane to move more northwestward then currently modeled. However I have opted to go with the model consensus at this time.
Intensity of Earl has increased to 70 knots (80mph) now, according to the Navy website for tropical cyclones. He is now a respectable category one hurricane and is expected to have continually decreasing wind shear environment along with increasing SSTs environment which will be conducive for rapid strengthening. I expect this to be underway and over the next 72 hours to continue and allow for 20 knot increases in wind speeds over a 24 hour period for the next 3 days. LL convergence is increasing and is coincided with the best UL divergence and they are both centered over the Low Level Circulation of Earl. Outflow is impressive on the southern side of the storm with a strong equatorward outflow channel present and low level spiral bands wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. This pattern is conducive for rapid strengthening and once his inner core is completed I expect this SIP to commence. SIP stands for Significant Intensification Period, in which the cyclone intensifies rapidly and can jump several categories in one day time. I expect peak intensity to reach 130 knots, or 150-155mph by Wednesday as wind shear diminishes and SSTs coincide with one another and a large upper level anticyclone continues to head over the system. Thereafter intensity will decrease in the 4-5 day period as upper level wind shear increases, however I don’t expect major loss of intensity as a category three hurricane is still a major hurricane and should not be taken lightly. It is actually quite possibly he could reach category five intensity if the conditions present themselves and he improves the environment north of the circulation. This part of the forecast remains the most difficult to determine and residents along the East Coast of the US as well as Canada and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Earl.
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|By: TheDawnAwakening2, 1:30 AM GMT on August 24, 2010||+0|
Tonight we are tracking two tropical systems of interest. One is of course the second hurricane of the season Danielle which is 75mph sustained winds and 987mb pressure at the 5pm EDT advisory package. The second system is just off the African coast and is organizing nicely, called invest 96L. Both systems could become strong hurricanes in the future with the forecast of Danielle more certain then 96L. Hurricane Danielle:Here we see a -NAO/+PNA pattern, which si...
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|By: TheDawnAwakening2, 4:48 AM GMT on August 23, 2010||+0|
TS Danielle formed at around 5pm AST in the central tropical Atlantic ocean today. The National Hurricane Center's updated advisory package at 11pm EDT upgrades Danielle to a 50mph tropical storm and rightfully so. 1000mb and 50mph winds. Not bad for a storm encountering 20 knots of easterly wind shear, which should begin to abate within the next 24 hours as an upper level anticyclone roughly 50nm to the ENE of Danielle's low level circulation. Once the Ul high ...
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|By: TheDawnAwakening2, 7:58 PM GMT on August 20, 2010||+0|
Link500mb means 8-10 day EURO left/GFS right 12z run500mb pattern 8-10 day mean EURO left/GFS rightNow the GFS is being over zealous right now with that trough within a large ridge over the NW Atlantic, who knows, but if the EURO is right with the ridge over this area and the GFS right on intensity, look out NEUS. Now again, I don’t think it will make landfall, but just something to watch for now.LinkModels continue to show a –NAO strengthening towards positiv...
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|By: TheDawnAwakening2, 3:40 PM GMT on August 17, 2010||+1|
Today we have several ideas going for the tropical wave near 20N/20W in the vicintiy of the Cape Verde Islands. After doing some research this morning, again very small sample size and reviewing over the NAO/AO/PNA indices for the next 15 days forecasted by the models, there are telling signs that this wave could affect the United States sometime within the next 14 days. What historical data I have gathered suggests that an amplified trough centered from NW Ontari...
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