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Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center |
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Last Updated: 7:14 PM GMT on November 09, 2009
— Last Comment: 9:11 PM GMT on November 09, 2009
Greetings again!
WOW, what a system! IDA begins to transition to extra-tropical As of the 10:00 a.m. EST advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted: 9:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9 Location: 26.5°N 88.3°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: NNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 996 mb / 29.41 in. Well, IDA has seemed to throw a wrench in the forecast track somewhat. A shift left in track by NHC has been established on the NHC forecast track. Based on the current satellite loop imagery (Water Vapor), This new track looks pretty accurate. Based on earlier forecast steering layers maps, and earlier water vapor loop imagery, as little as 8 hours priror, IDA should have taken, or have begin to taken a more NNE motion, with a sharper turn east thereafter. What has happened, is water vapor loop imagery shows a couple of trofs out west, with one mid layer trof over the four corners area of the U.S. has amplified, and the resulting effect upstream has changed and amplified to more of a NNE to north bias. Based on these findings, I concur with the current NHC forecast track. The heaviest weather associated with IDA will be felt from Mobile Bay, AL, to Pensacola, FL. IDA appears to be making her transition to extratropical. Given the wind shear and cooler water temperatures and lack of TCHP, I believe the convective flare up we may be seeing is being caused by IDA absorbing energy from the HYBRID to her NNW, and low level forcing. IDA LOOP   Based on the current burst in convection, and very strong lower level convergence taking place, I believe and concur with the NHC intensity scheme somewhat, and I feel she could be a 50-60 mph TS upon landfall. ALL Hurricane watches and warnings have been discontinued. Please refer to NHC products for watches and warnings  Storm Surge could be 3-5 ft near and to the east of where the center comes ashore. Residents in the warned areas need to be area of some coastal flooding and beach erosion. Residents along the entire Gulf Coast need to stay away from and off the water until IDA has completly passed, and warnings and/or advisories have been lifted by local officials. She is just barley in radar range, and I will be posting radar images when the center is fully in view. The current is the loop out of Mobile AL.: DOPPLER RADAR LOOP I will be monitoring IDA throughout the day. "Storm"
Well, IDA sort of surprised me attaining CATEGORY 2 today.As of the 10:00 P.M. Advisory from the NHC, the following information was available:9:00 PM CST Sun Nov 8Location: 23.7°N 86.7°WMax sustained: 105 mphMoving: NNW at 14 mphMin pressure: 979 mb or 28.91 in.Recent satellite loop imagery indicates IDA to be moving toward the NNW. I expect this motion to continue for the next 8-12 hours before gradually turning toward the north. Ida has sped up a little, and t...
Good evening,IDA still appears to be holding her own.NHC 10:00 P.M. ADVISORY10:00 PM EST Sat Nov 7Location: 20.1°N 84.6°WMax sustained: 70 mphMoving: NNW at 12 mphMin pressure: 990 mbRecent satellite loop imagery shows her elongated somewhat in a basic W-E fashion. IDA is undergoing some effects of wind shear from the SW at about 25 kts. This is most likely keeping her in check at the moment, albeit the diffluent flow aloft is aiding somewhat in ventialtion. I ...
Good day to all!IDA has regained Tropical Storm strength, as posted in my forecast yesterday. As of the 10:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted:10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7Location: 17.9°N 84.1°WMax sustained: 60 mphMoving: N at 9 mphMin pressure: 997 mb / 29.44 inIDA has stalled somewhat, but based on the current forecast steering layers maps from PSU e-WALL site, and current Water Vapor Loop imagery, IDA should shortly pick up a tempora...
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