Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast and Weather Center

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal Osillation
ATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system
BOC: Bay Of Campeche
CATL: Central Atlantic
CARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center
DOMREP: DOMinican REPublic
EATL: East Atlantic
ECMWF: European Center for Medium range Weather
Forecasting
GANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtion
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GFS: Global Forecast System
GOMEX: Gulf Of MEXico
HWRF: Hurricane and Weather Research Forecasting
IVO: In the Vicinity Of
LLC: Low Level Circulation
MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation
MM5: FSU Mesoscale Model
MSLP: Mean Sea Level Pressure
NAM: North American Mesoscale Model
NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation
NCATL: North Central Atlantic
NEWD: Northeastward
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction
System
NWD: Northward
OBX: Outer Banks (N.C.)
QBO: Quasi Biennial Oscillation
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
SEUS: SouthEast U.S.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
SPC: Storm Prediction Center
SSD: Satellite Services Division
SWEAT: Severe WEAther Threat
SWWD: Southwestward
TUTT: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof
UKMET: United Kingdom METeorological office
ULL: Upper Level Low
WW3: Wave Watch 3 model.
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated (also known as Zulu
time).

Please refer to recommended links for satellite imagery.

Good morning!

Bertha is still alive and doesn't want to weaken. Since Bertha is no threat to CONUS, I have discontinued tracking her. Bertha is moving to the NE at 15 mph, and this motion is forecast to continue until her demise.

The African wave train continues to roll tropical waves out into the far eastern Atlantic. A wave near 25W, and one on the African coast both show good cyclonic curvature. However, A combination of strong easterly wind shear, and a large area of Saharan dust to the NW of the wave near 25W, would indicate development if any of these waves, would be slow to occur. In fact, given the wind shear, I feel these set of waves have to get past 35-40W to escape the easterly shear. These will be monitored as they traverse the Atlantic for any organization.

Tropical Disturbance 95L developed form a tropical wave in the extreme western Caribbean. This system was very close to becoming a depression yesterday, but has since moved inland over Nicaragua/Honduras. This has the potential to create heavy rains and mudslides in that area.

Disturbance 96L is located approximately 75 miles NE of Jacksonville, FL. I have just confirmed this on real time Doppler radar. T he western edge of this system sits on the Georgia coast at the moment, and is stationary. The last 2 frames of the Doppler loop may indicate this system could be starting to drift NNE. I am going to monitor this area closely for development. Based on the most current steering layers forecast maps, this should begin to move N to NNE within the next 24 hours. Based on current wind shear forecast analysis, this system could still have a shot at becoming a tropical depression, as based on steering, it will skirt the U.S. east coast, remaining over the warm Gulfstream waters. This system is currently under 20-25 kts of wind shear from the NW. Wind shear is forecast to relax somewhat, which may allow for this to begin development. Wind shear is forecast to remain marginal in its path up to 66 hours in the forecast period
from the 06Z run of the GFS, and become favorable from 72 hours to 108 hours in the period.

Tropical Disturbance 94L

This system has impressed me to say the least...what a fighter! Between periods of ingesting dry air, and running the gauntlet of wind shear, 94L is still with us, and doesn't look too bad this morning. In fact, the last couple of frames in the IR imagery loop seem to indicate that 94L and the surrounding cloud shield are becoming a little more compact. Conditions in the upper levels are marginal, or borderline as far as further development. The problem appears to be that the 20 KT wind shear contour keeps ever so slowly pushing southward. The more 94L gets away from it, it seems to keep catching 94L. The system looks as if it is going to have to run this gauntlet until reaching the western Caribbean. However, wind shear is forecast to relax in about 30 hours from the 06Z GFS run, and become favorable in the Caribbean and Yucatan channel for about 12 hrs, at 36 hours in the forecast period. So, I'm still inclined not to write this system off, as
I've witnessed some stranger things with these systems. For instance, during my experience in past seasons, I've seen numerous systems develop, and strengthen, in conditions that were deemed not favorable for tropical development. Thus, I cannot rule out further development of this to tropical depression status. When? Your guess is as good as mine. Could be later today, or 2 days from now.

Next is (don't ya hate this question) where will it go. Based on the current run of the forecast steering layers maps, 94L should begin a more north of west track today or tomorrow, becoming a LITTLE more WNW after. Now, I don't want anyone to panic, as it is still a little too far out to call landfall or strength of this system. Let me see if I can explain this without confusing you. Steering indicates if the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about 60-72 hours, a slight kink in the ridge (almost the inverted "V" shape) should allow a jog slightly north, then possibly affecting Mexico. At around 96 hours from this 00Z run of steering currents, the currents change, and a good possibility of a S to SE Texas event COULD occur. Again, please keep in mind, this is based on the MOST AVAILABLE information early this morning. We have all seen how quickly conditions can change.

I generally take weekends off...but in this case, I am making an exception. I will mainly be in monitoring mode, and will post if need be.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

"Storm"

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal OsillationATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting systemBOC: Bay Of CampecheCATL: Central AtlanticCARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All HurricanesCDO: Central Dense OvercastCMC: Canadian Meteorological CenterDOMREP: DOMinican REPublicEATL: East AtlanticECMWF: European Center for Medium range WeatherForecastingGANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtionGFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGFS: Global Forecast SystemGOMEX: ...

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal OsillationATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting systemBOC: Bay Of CampecheCATL: Central AtlanticCARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All HurricanesCDO: Central Dense OvercastCMC: Canadian Meteorological CenterDOMREP: DOMinican REPublicEATL: East AtlanticECMWF: European Center for Medium range WeatherForecastingGANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtionGFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGFS: Global Forecast SystemGOMEX: ...

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal OsillationATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting systemBOC: Bay Of CampecheCATL: Central AtlanticCARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All HurricanesCDO: Central Dense OvercastCMC: Canadian Meteorological CenterDOMREP: DOMinican REPublicEATL: East AtlanticECMWF: European Center for Medium range WeatherForecastingGANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtionGFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGFS: Global Forecast SystemGOMEX: ...

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal OsillationATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting systemBOC: Bay Of CampecheCATL: Central AtlanticCARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All HurricanesCDO: Central Dense OvercastCMC: Canadian Meteorological CenterDOMREP: DOMinican REPublicEATL: East AtlanticECMWF: European Center for Medium range WeatherForecastingGANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtionGFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryGFS: Global Forecast SystemGOMEX: ...