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Last Updated: 2:01 PM GMT on November 21, 2009
— Last Comment: 11:40 AM GMT on November 21, 2009
Good day!
Nothing tropical to discuss this a.m. An area of low pressure has taken shape in the western GOMEX, close to the coast, and is currently moving to the east. Moderate to heavy rainfall is associated with this low.  GOMEX LOOP img src="  " alt="" />This feature is associated with the warm sector of a stalled frontal boundry which originates from off the NC coast, south of Hatteras. Based on current model runs, and forecast wind shear maps, I am not expecting this to become tropical, or sub-tropical in nature, as given the forecast track, which the majority of the models depict as staying very close to the coast of the Eastern Seaboard, it should pretty much ride the front, keeping it in a baroclinic environment. The past 2-3 days of model runs indicate this system should not deepen much, if at all, given the track so close to, and partially over land. Some areas offshore in portions of the DELMARVA and Mid Atlantic states could experience winds of up to 25 kts. Seas 2-4 ft above normal along the coastal regions in the aforementioned areas could pose a problem due to the already existing beach erosion from IDA GALE. This system should eventually eject NEWD around the 24th of the month, at which time conditions along the Eastern Seaboard should begin to improve. I'm not looking for any winter weather at the moment with this. Looks like rainfall amounts could be the biggest factor to watch along the east coast. Next up, based on the medium to long range forecast, the next Nor'easter will be stronger than the current system we are watching. Models are pretty much in agreement of this, with development starting off the coast near SC/NC, and moving NNE along the East Coast of the U.S. As it moves to the NNE, it is forecast to deepen, and could even be sub 990 mb in nature. This will remain to be seen as far as strength, and I will be analyzing further model runs for consistency on strength. In any event, given the proximity to the coast, in combination with a forecast negative AO and NAO, I would almost certainly look for winter weather and frozen precip from the Great Lakes Region, to New England and the NE states. I'll have a better idea on snow and such on subsequent model run analysis. I do expect however, around the 26th/27th for the possibility of freezing temperatures in the Tennessee Valley to near Louisiana early in the period, shifting eastward later and through the 27th as far south to some portions of AL/MS, and for the SE in a line mainly for western VA/NC running SWWD. In simple terms...colder wx for the SE and some of the Gulf coast states. I will continue to monitor for winter coastal/offshore storms, however I will only be posting if there is something to post about. No sense in beating a dead horse day after day until the event unfolds. Have a great day! "Storm"
Good day!Awesome Shuttle Launch yesterday.Just a little history note about me...34 years ago today, I beagn my first day of Basic Training, USCG, Cape May, NJ.The tropics are quite this morning.The remnant of the IDA GALE situation is still hanging out in the Atlantic near 26N;65W. This feature is mostly mid and upper level at the moment, however vorticity does show at the 850 mb level, and is quasi-stationary.Development of this is not likely due to high levels of...
Greetings,The latest on IDA Gale.This has been one heck of a system. Based on current satellite loop imagery, the Glae Center is now moving offshore, and convective activity has recently flared north of the center, in response to the warm waters of the Gulfstream.Current and forecast steering indicates this system to continue to move in a E-ENE direction over the next 12-18 hours. Thereafter, steering and Global Models pretty much suggest a more ESE motion to take...
Greetings!IDA will be a system talked about for sometime to come.The remnant and energy of IDA merged with a front yesterday, and although this system is now extra-tropcal, involving baroclinic forces, is bringing winds of Tropical Storm force, along with high surf, coastal flooding, beach erosion, and copious amounts of rain.This Gale Center is forecast to move slowly to the ENE over the next 24-36 hours, and should deepen (intensify) for a brief period once the ac...
Happy Veterans Day.The remnants of IDA, which are now embedded in a front, continue to move ENE and will eventually be off the U.S. east coast sometime later today, and will be affecting the SC/NC region.JSL SATELLITE LOOPThough I am not expecting any tropical re-development as the upper level environment is forecast to remain non conducive, based on the current SST's of the Guflstream and current model runs, I do expect her to deepen somewhat as an extratropical cy...
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