Florida Weather Blog

By: StormTrackerScott , 11:58 AM GMT on August 27, 2014

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Folks look at this Winter patter that is setting up on the models. Very strong ridge across the Pacific NW with a very active south jet plowing into California. With this set up California can expect huge amounts of rain this Winter. So with this California will likely experience devastating mud slides from excessive rains. Also severe weather will be likely across FL this Winter so if you do not have a NOAA radio I would suggest you get one as these severe weather events that occur across FL during El-Nino seem to happen at night.



January


February


Here is the enso forecast FMA


NHC 5 Day Outlook for the Tropics

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1281. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:12 PM GMT on October 08, 2014
StormTrackerScott has created a new entry.
1280. BocaFL
12:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2014
Good Morning - I am actually looking forward to the 2017 Eclipse and can't wait to start planning my trip. Here is a great website for info.
Link
Member Since: July 23, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
1279. LargoFl
12:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2014
well i guess no rain or storms today..enjoy the sunshine folks!........................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1278. LargoFl
11:54 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
Quoting 1277. EdwardinAlaska:

During the live stream one of the Griffith Observatory people mentioned something that would have never occurred to me: They said that if you were standing on the moon you would have seen a total eclipse of the sun.

They also said that in August 2017 there will be a fantastic total solar eclipse, viewable from parts of the US. So, mark your calendars, I guess....

gee that would have been such a cool sight to see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1277. EdwardinAlaska
11:41 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
During the live stream one of the Griffith Observatory people mentioned something that would have never occurred to me: They said that if you were standing on the moon you would have seen a total eclipse of the sun.

They also said that in August 2017 there will be a fantastic total solar eclipse, viewable from parts of the US. So, mark your calendars, I guess....
Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1276. LargoFl
11:17 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
Quoting 1275. j3nnyb3an:

Boooooo....stinking FOG! No eclipse in Tally. I was very much looking forward to it. :(

oh sorry to hear that jenny, i was walking the dogs and saw most of it..was pretty cool.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1275. j3nnyb3an
10:54 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
Boooooo....stinking FOG! No eclipse in Tally. I was very much looking forward to it. :(
Member Since: December 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
1274. EdwardinAlaska
10:53 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
Wow, the eclipse is beautiful. I wish I lived over on the Gulf coast and could see it out over the water.

Edit: The eclipse is at its peak right now (6:55 a.m.) and will probably be looking great for at least the next 20 minutes or so, maybe quite a bit longer. It's only 4:00 in California, where the Griffith Observatory is, and they won't be affected by the sunrise there.
Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1273. EdwardinAlaska
9:51 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
Lunar eclipse underway right now. We're getting some thin clouds, and the moon is starting to sink behind the tall trees across the street, so I'm watching the live stream  on slooh.com.

Alternative live view: http://new.livestream.com/GriffithObservatoryTV/Lu narEclipseOctober2014
(from Griffith Observatory) (This feed has soothing music, rather than the blathering talking heads on the slooh site.)
Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1272. LargoFl
9:30 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
LAKELAND --
A 10-year-old Polk County girl is recovering after being diagnosed with a case of enterovirus 68, according to the Florida Department of Health.

It’s the first confirmed case of the virus in Florida. Enterovirus, or EV-D68, has already to spread to 30 other states.

According to the Florida Department of Health, the girl is a resident of Polk County but was treated in Hillsborough County and has since been discharged.

The virus progresses rapidly with children going from healthy to severely ill in just a day.

Health officials say children with EV-D68 often display cold-like symptoms, but the virus can also cause their air passages to swell.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said four people infected with the virus have died, but it's unknown what role the virus played in their deaths.

If you believe your child may have contracted the EV-D68, medical professionals advise taking them to your primary care physician as soon as possible.

Symptoms include:
Wheezing
Trouble breathing
High fever with ill appearance
Thick nasal discharge
Signs of dehydration

Prevention measures include:
Covering coughs and sneezes with a tissue or elbow;
Avoiding sharing cups and eating utensils;
Refraining from kissing those with symptoms;
Frequently cleaning potentially contaminated surfaces (doorknobs, countertops, tables, toys, etc.) using a bleach solution (1 part bleach and 9 parts water).
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1271. LargoFl
9:23 AM GMT on October 08, 2014
Good Morning folks!............................................ ..............................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1270. LargoFl
9:37 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1269. LargoFl
9:30 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
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1268. LargoFl
5:32 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
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1267. LargoFl
4:16 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
Quoting 1264. EdwardinAlaska:

I get the impression from Jeff Masters' latest blog entry that there's not much risk of that system heading for Florida.

yes i feel it there also..we'll see how it is say this coming sunday/monday..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1266. LargoFl
4:15 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
Quoting 1265. EdwardinAlaska:


Actually, surf-forecast.com is showing a forecast of very high seas east of north Florida this time next week, with high surf for the Carolinas, but not much in the way of rough conditions for Florida. I've really grown to believe in their forecasts rather than the somewhat esoteric and erratic performance of the "models" used for forecasting tropical weather.

I don't understand why we continue to hear about the "top three most reliable models" all the time, only to find out that they're often anything other than reliable. I have to wonder whether they re-assess their data, their calculations, and whatever else goes into their forecasts of track and intensity after the season is over.  Some of them seem no more useful than sticking your head out the window and seeing what the weather looks like.

yeah right now..nothing tropical has formed,which is why the forecasts dont say anything about a storm..as soon as one does form..boom..forecasts change fast...im hoping myself,that nothing does form and endanger florida...but.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1265. EdwardinAlaska
4:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2014

Quoting 1262. LargoFl:

next week might get interesting storm wise,FIM model puts a storm into the gulf coast,Gem model puts a storm into say the miami area..way out in time so we have plenty of time to see what verifies, but folks stay alert next week ok..im hoping its all bogus.
Actually, surf-forecast.com is showing a forecast of very high seas east of north Florida this time next week, with high surf for the Carolinas, but not much in the way of rough conditions for Florida. I've really grown to believe in their forecasts rather than the somewhat esoteric and erratic performance of the "models" used for forecasting tropical weather.

I don't understand why we continue to hear about the "top three most reliable models" all the time, only to find out that they're often anything other than reliable. I have to wonder whether they re-assess their data, their calculations, and whatever else goes into their forecasts of track and intensity after the season is over.  Some of them seem no more useful than sticking your head out the window and seeing what the weather looks like.
Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1264. EdwardinAlaska
3:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
I get the impression from Jeff Masters' latest blog entry that there's not much risk of that system heading for Florida.
Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1263. LargoFl
1:22 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
South Florida's dry season usually starts in mid-October, and sometimes it's ushered in by a tropical system.

That's what happened two years ago, when Hurricane Sandy drew close enough to South Florida to deliver much cooler, dry air in its wake - and it happened in 2005 with Hurricane Wilma.

It may happen again this year, said Jim Lushine, a tropical weather expert.

"The longer range computer models show that a tropical system may form in the western Caribbean and move northward to near Florida," he said.

If that system does form, it could potentially bring nasty weather to the state - including South Florida - by early next week, he added. Just something to watch.

"After it moves past Florida, cooler and dryer air will invade South Florida, likely marking the beginning of the dry season, just about on time," Lushine said.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1262. LargoFl
1:15 PM GMT on October 07, 2014
next week might get interesting storm wise,FIM model puts a storm into the gulf coast,Gem model puts a storm into say the miami area..way out in time so we have plenty of time to see what verifies, but folks stay alert next week ok..im hoping its all bogus.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1261. LargoFl
11:04 AM GMT on October 07, 2014
no telling if..this becomes true but im posting it just in case ok..stay alert next week......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1260. j3nnyb3an
11:03 AM GMT on October 07, 2014
Quoting 1258. LargoFl:

well pretty much back to normal huh...............................................


Yep. Back to normal.
Member Since: December 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
1259. LargoFl
10:32 AM GMT on October 07, 2014
nws Miami...........................
.NOW...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD TO AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING HOURS.


$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1258. LargoFl
9:22 AM GMT on October 07, 2014
well pretty much back to normal huh...............................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1257. LargoFl
9:20 AM GMT on October 07, 2014
Good Morning folks!............................................ ........................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1256. LargoFl
11:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
well thats it for me..good night folks!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1255. LargoFl
11:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1253. DonnieBwkGA:



I saw Christmas decorations out in my bank on September 12th! Made me want to gag.
I have a new super walmart opening here end of this month, bet they put the christmas stuff up soon too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1254. LargoFl
11:03 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1250. DonnieBwkGA:

Oh, no no Largo, those storms won't get anywhere near me. They're 400+ miles away now. Should be fair and a little warmer each day this week.
ok thats good news
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1253. DonnieBwkGA
10:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting billsfaninsofla:
Lowe's and BJ' s wholesale club have had Christmas stuff out for two weeks now. Sheesh


I saw Christmas decorations out in my bank on September 12th! Made me want to gag.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 36 Comments: 2618
1252. billsfaninsofla
10:23 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Lowe's and BJ' s wholesale club have had Christmas stuff out for two weeks now. Sheesh
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5800
1251. DonnieBwkGA
10:23 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Oh, it was not especially windy on Friday with the storms. There were some wind gusts in the 30s, but nothing exceptional.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 36 Comments: 2618
1250. DonnieBwkGA
10:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Oh, no no Largo, those storms won't get anywhere near me. They're 400+ miles away now. Should be fair and a little warmer each day this week.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 36 Comments: 2618
1249. LargoFl
10:18 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1248. DonnieBwkGA:

50/79 today and continued low humidity although not as crisp as yesterday. Severe clear in morning but this afternoon lots of high cirrus have come in. Should make for a beautiful sunset!
hi donnie, i guess those storms over in alabama etc today wont reach your area?...nws said some severe winds and hail in them there.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1248. DonnieBwkGA
10:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
50/79 today and continued low humidity although not as crisp as yesterday. Severe clear in morning but this afternoon lots of high cirrus have come in. Should make for a beautiful sunset!
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 36 Comments: 2618
1247. LargoFl
9:05 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1245. EdwardinAlaska:


I like the beaches over here more than on the Gulf side. I'm not crazy about that "sugar" sand over there. Plus, we get real waves, and very few sting rays (almost none). I also love how uncrowded the beaches are in Ponce Inlet, Ormond by the Sea and the south end of Flagler. Still, the days of sleepy beach towns are almost gone, even though you can still find places that are nice and quiet.



yeah by me the beaches are usually crowded in the nice warm months, tons or tourists etc
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1246. LargoFl
9:03 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1245. EdwardinAlaska
8:59 PM GMT on October 06, 2014

Quoting 1237. LargoFl:

its a very nice area over there,I used to go over all the time years ago..so very different in scenery then the gulf coast is.
I like the beaches over here more than on the Gulf side. I'm not crazy about that "sugar" sand over there. Plus, we get real waves, and very few sting rays (almost none). I also love how uncrowded the beaches are in Ponce Inlet, Ormond by the Sea and the south end of Flagler. Still, the days of sleepy beach towns are almost gone, even though you can still find places that are nice and quiet.


Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1244. LargoFl
8:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1243. LargoFl
7:40 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
258 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION...AND A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WEST OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. SO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO. IN ADDITION, THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND
THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR WEAK LAPSE RATES.

NOT MANY CHANGES ARE FORESEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER WITH PWAT FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1.5". THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEEING RAINFALL WILL BE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1242. LargoFl
7:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1241. StPeteFLweather:



I heard the Costco up by you is already putting out Christmas decorations!
yes several up here do that,i have a new super walmart opening up end of this month, you Know they will too lol..gotta get that xmas bucks out of us huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1241. StPeteFLweather
7:29 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1240. LargoFl:

so..anyone ready for Halloween? lol


I heard the Costco up by you is already putting out Christmas decorations!
Member Since: July 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
1240. LargoFl
6:01 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
so..anyone ready for Halloween? lol
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1239. LargoFl
5:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
TAMPA --
Two people on a small seaplane escaped serious injury Monday morning when the aircraft crashed into the water near Davis Islands.

According to Tampa Fire Rescue, the small plane crashed about three miles south of Peter O'Knight Airport in downtown Tampa.

The two people on board the plane were rescued by boaters just after the 11:45 a.m. crash, officials said.

The National Transportation Safety Board will investigate the crash, but it appears the pilot of the amphibious plane was bringing the aircraft down in the water but the landing gear was not completely up.

Tampa police said the rescuers were off duty Hillsborough County firefighters boating in the area. The people on the plane had life vests on and were swimming in when they were rescued.

Officials said the people on board were taken to the Davis Islands boat ramp.

The official conditions of the people on the plane has not been released, but the pilot met with NTSB officials after the incident.

A Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office marine patrol responded to the scene along with the US Coast Guard.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1238. LargoFl
5:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
well todays 12Z on the GFS model puts the Hurricane into Texas instead of Florida..but..stay alert,remember each run can and often do change...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1237. LargoFl
5:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1236. EdwardinAlaska:

Gonna be another hot one. We're up to 76 degrees right now. Probably hit 80 before it's all said and done. Bwahahahaha..... how much closer to perfect can it get?!?


Big couple months for the folks in Daytona:
  • Wettest September in history. They didn't just break the record, they smashed it, and they didn't need a TS to bump up the totals!
  • Two record daily lows in October.

Up here in Ormond we can only tip our hats and acknowledge that, once again, Daytona has made us just an afterthought...... and, oddly enough, we're fine with that. We like it when everyone goes to Daytona and keeps our beaches and roads uncrowded!

its a very nice area over there,I used to go over all the time years ago..so very different in scenery then the gulf coast is.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1236. EdwardinAlaska
4:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Gonna be another hot one. We're up to 76 degrees right now. Probably hit 80 before it's all said and done. Bwahahahaha..... how much closer to perfect can it get?!?


Big couple months for the folks in Daytona:
  • Wettest September in history. They didn't just break the record, they smashed it, and they didn't need a TS to bump up the totals!
  • Two record daily lows in October.

Up here in Ormond we can only tip our hats and acknowledge that, once again, Daytona has made us just an afterthought...... and, oddly enough, we're fine with that. We like it when everyone goes to Daytona and keeps our beaches and roads uncrowded!
Member Since: February 4, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 525
1235. LargoFl
3:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1228. StPeteFLweather:

folks stay alert for a possible storm hitting florida in about 9-10 days...................................

I'd rather the model point at us this early, seems the track will always change. Not that I'd wish for it to hit someone else.
yes I myself really dont need to get hit by this storm..seems to have our area in its sights..maybe,hopefully this storm doesnt come here.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1234. LargoFl
3:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1232. billsfaninsofla:

Good morning all. Only 82 last I checked. Heat index 86. Fifteen=twenty degrees cooler "feel like" temp.


good morning!!..feels great outside
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1233. LargoFl
3:24 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-061600-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
915 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

.NOW...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON. THEN...FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND AN ONSHORE NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL FURTHER FACILTATE
THE WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ALSO...THERE REMAINS A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121
1232. billsfaninsofla
2:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Good morning all. Only 82 last I checked. Heat index 86. Fifteen=twenty degrees cooler "feel like" temp.

Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5800
1231. LargoFl
2:41 PM GMT on October 06, 2014
Quoting 1229. EdwardinAlaska:



Yay, this is officially a streak!



Record Report

Statement as of 7:30 am EDT on October 06, 2014



...Record low temperature set at Daytona Beach this morning...

A record low temperature of 56 degrees was set at Daytona Beach this
morning (monday October 6). This breaks the old record of 57 last
set in 2010.

nice..i dont think my area went below 60 if it did it was very early,my dogs woke me up at 4am..didnt feel that cold,matter of fact it felt good.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42121

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