Professional Forecaster experience since 1977, concentrating in Aviation, Tropical and Long Range forecasting.
By: Steve Gregory, 4:45 PM GMT on September 29, 2014
SUB-TROPICAL LOW WEST OF BERMUDA
A ‘sub-tropical’ Low pressure system (INVEST 97L) formed over the past 18 hours near Bermuda, and is now moving WNW at about 12Kts, away from Bermuda. The sustained surface winds at Bermuda are a relatively light 15Kts, though may gust to over 30Kts in any T-storms that pass across the Island during the next 24 hrs as the system continues to move away from the Island.
This surface Low formed directly ben...
Updated: 2:01 PM GMT on September 30, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 3:29 PM GMT on September 27, 2014
Atlantic Basin Hostile to Tropical Cyclone Formation
The weak disturbance that was INVEST 96L is no longer of any significance as it became overwhelmed by both drier and stable air along with increased wind shear. What’s left of the disturbance has turned N/NE.
Although there are 3 other tropical Waves in the Atlantic basin – none pose any threat of development – and no cyclone formations are expected or forecast by the more reliable...
Updated: 12:15 PM GMT on September 28, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 6:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
INVEST 96L NOT A THREAT
A small area of disturbed weather with periodic bursts of convection near 13°N/42°W remains disorganized as it continues to drift WNW at around 5Kts. Although wind shear remain moderate near 15Kts, there are indications of some outflow at high levels – the system remains surrounded by relatively dry and somewhat stable air which is inhibiting development. None of the global or dynamical specialized hurricane models are foreca...
By: Steve Gregory, 5:09 PM GMT on September 25, 2014
INVEST 96L ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ
Over the past 24 hours, a northward ‘push’ or ‘bulge’ of moisture emanating from within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) ended up leaving a small area of deep layered moisture with some isolated deep convection in the central Atlantic - with a POSSIBLE low level circulation. However, none of the global and reliable specialized Hurricane models are forecasting development of this system. NHC has designat...
Updated: 5:53 PM GMT on September 25, 2014
By: Steve Gregory, 6:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2014
ARCTIC ICE MELT ENDS AT 6TH LOWEST LEVEL ON RECORD
Video 1. The above animation of daily Arctic sea ice extent during the melt season of 2014, from March 21, 2014 - to Sept. 17, 2014 – when the ice appeared to reach it’s minimum extent for the year. Technically, It’s the sixth lowest minimum sea ice extent measured in the satellite era. The data was provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency from their GCOM-W1 satellite’...
Updated: 8:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2014