* HURRICANE RITA - CATEGORY 5 - 898mb 3rd LOWEST PrESSURE ON RECORD **
SEP 21 - 7:50PM CDT
From NHC:
DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES.
THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH
MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER.
FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.
_____________________________________________________________________
SEP 21, 2005 5:15PM CDT
RECON Report 904mb -- -10mb drop in 1 hour -- that is a record.
Eye 20NM across - (Katrina's lowest pressure was 902mb)
Thermal eyewall; 21°deg / location 24.4N/.86.5W -HEADING 280° 9KTS
______________________________________________________________________
SEP 21, 2005 / 3:28PM CDT - SPECIAL UPDATE #4
RITA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 - 914MB PRESSURE
The latest RECON, and confirmed measurements from NHC - report RITA's central pressure is now down to 914mb. MAX sustained flight winds are 161Kts, with sustained surface winds of 165mph -=- and gusts to 185mph. The thermal eyewall temp difference is an astounding 21°C The pressure has been dropping at 6mb/hr which may be s some form of record of it's own. Furthermore, there are no signs yet that Rita has finished intensifying.
This places Rita in the top 10 of all-time Atlantic Basin Storms -- and in the top 4 for the Gulf of Mexico.
At it's peak -- Katrina reached 902mb.
Latest numerical guidance continues to show a landfall on Saturday between Port O'Connor and Freeport.
A full update will be sent late tonight -- but brief status reports will be issued as warranted.
Steve
___________________________________________________________________________
SEP 21 2005 - 1:20PM CDT
The latest RECON reports confirm RITA is now a CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 Hurricane.
Center Pressure is down to 920mb, and MAX Sustained winds of 153KTs at Flight level -- implying 155mph surface winds. with gusts to 175mph.
___________________________________________________________________
SEPT 21, 2005 / 11:45 AM
RITA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY WITHIN HOURS
SEVERE THREAT TO COASTAL TEXAS FROM NEAR PORT O'CONNOR
NORTHWARD TO PORT ARTHUR -- LANDFALL IN 70 HOURS
A RECON just arrived - and found a central pressure of 934MB, with a MAX sustained Flight level wind
of 137kts in the east quadrant, implying a surface sustained wind of 135mph. Satellite estimates now indicate
RITA may in fact have reached CAT 5 Intensity -- although this cannot be confirmed until the Aircraft completes
a full sampling of the winds around the entire storm. The Thermal Eye wall temperature gradient is now up
to 10°C - indicate of a strong CAT 4 / borderline CAT 5 hurricane. The 25NM Wide eye is currently located near
24.1N/ 85.80W or 700NM SE of Galveston, TX - and is moving west at 10Kts - slightly slower than 12
hours ago..
Though the storm may or may not have actually attained CAT intensity --based on the current imagery derived
data - and that fact RITA will be spending the next 12-18 hours crossing the Loop Current -- there is no longer
much doubt the storm will become a CAT 5 Hurricane. From that point on -- Rita will likely fluctuate in
intensity as eye wall replacement cycles commence -- but also -- by Thursday, the storm will be moving over
slightly cooler waters -- and the SST analysis shows a serious of 'warm' and 'cool' water pools of water scattered
about the Gulf. Passage over a slightly cooler area of water would no doubt cause some weakening, while the
converse would be true if is moves across a warmer pool of water. However, with the storm moving at a solid
10-12Kts -- and no significant slowdown expected -- the change in intensity may not be as pronounced as
typical -- since the storm is 'on the move' and will continually be moving over still relatively warm surface waters.
The major area of shallow warm water is within 100NM of the Texas coast. This combined with some slight
increase in shear expected during the final 12 hours before landfall -- should drop the WIND INTENSITY down
by 1 full Category. HOWEVER, as we learned from Katrina -- Wind Intensity, used for Categorizing a Hurricane,
doesn't always tell the whole story. Assuming RITA does attain CAT 5 intensity, and stays at that strength,
or close to it -- it will develop a huge CATEGORY 5 storm surge that will strike the Texas coast - regardless of
any wind speed decrease during the final 12 hours before landfall. Officially, Katrina hit the MS Coast as
a strong CAT 3 - but produced a catastrophic Category 5 storm surge damage for a 120 mile stretch of coast
line to the east. Rita may strike with the same CAT 5 storm surge -- but I believe it will cover a somewhat smaller extent
of coastline -- about 50NM - compared to Katrina's 120 mile wide path of utter devastation. But keep in mind
even if the storm does come ashore near Freeport -- the storm surge in Galveston Bay will be severe.
The latest 12Z model runs are clustered very tightly on a landfall between Port O'Conner and Freeport Saturday
morning & the consensus for intensity estimates are for a strong CAT 4. Those living in the coastal area from near
Corpus Christi to Galveston should begin evacuation within the next 24 hours. Those living north of Galveston
to Lake Charles, LA, and from Corpus Christi to Brownsville -- should have a 'Plan' in place in the event the storm
veers off the expected track.
The next full update will be early this evening -- but short status updates will be sent to enhanced service
subscribers. Those subscribers living in the Texas/LA area will get more specific updates starting Thursday.
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Steve Gregory’s Tropical Weather Blog (Main Page)
PIX 1 - HI-RES Visible image within past hour -- the western side of the eyewall is 'highlighted' due
to the low sun angle - and gives a true sense of 'depth perception' for the ring of intense thunderstorms
that make up the eyewall.
PIX 2 - Enhanced IR image - superb CDO signature of a storm on it's way to becoming a
CAT 5 Hurricane.
PIX 3 - The outflow from the storm is excellent in all quadrants -- but extremely strong to the north through
east quadrant, as the outflow channel has tapped into a 70KT jet streak feeding into an upper low out over
the Atlantic.
PIX 4 - The 12Z model runs are strongly converging on the Texas coast near Port O'Connor. However, despite
this remarkable consensus, a shift of 50 or 100 miles is almost as likely as the consensus for hitting the Texas coast is!
PIX 5 - Projected NHC track as graphically produced by Global Tracks software. Though NHC does not yet
forecast full CAT 5 intensity, the shading above still shows CAT 4 intensity. Landfall as a strong CAT 3/borderline
CAT 4 is likely. BUT REMEMBER Katrina -- even 3 hours away -- she moved 25 miles further to the east than was
anticipated. The state of the art simply does not allow for the precision we all are looking for. And model track
'errors at 3 days out are close to 200 miles. Considering the tremendous consistency and agreement between
all the models -- I would guestimate a more likely variation in the point of landfall will be +/- 100NM
Reader Comments
Page: 1 — Blog Index
armadillo at 12:40 AM CDT on September 21, 2005.
I have a question for Steve. I live in Victoria, Texas, about 30 miles inland from Port O'Connor, one of the possible landfall points predicted for Rita. I'm planning to not be here soon. But if a Cat 5, or Cat 4, makes landfall at Port O'Connor, what are the odds I'll still have a house to return to? And (two questions), if this storm, which is large, hits closer to Galveston, about 100 miles up the coast, what kind of wind speeds can be expected in this area, which is south of Galveston and would be east of the storm?
__________________________________________________
IF the NORTH or EAST EDGE of the eyewall pass over Victoria - as a strong CAT 4 or CAT 5. The house will be - somewhere else.
If the storm makes it Galveston, you will NOT have major wind damage...
Steve
I am not messing around with this thing. I rode Bonnie out in 1986 out in my home. It was a Cat 1. Lost some trees, some fence, some outbuildings, some roof. I cannot even imagine a 4 or 5.
God Bless and Protect us!
Bill Black
How old do you think you'll be when cat 6 storms are observed?
mercy
The pressure is 920mb/153kt . I suspect the initial dropsonde missed the center - which happens. And because it was 14 hrs since a RECON -- they deadheaded for the center and dropped it a little off target. Human nature at work...but it happens more often then people realize.
Steve
Unless an act of divine providence occurs in the next 24 hours and swats Rita down, we are well and truly screwed from an energy perspective. At this point, I'm not even thinking about how I'll gas the car; heating the house this winter is going to be a much bigger financial issue.
Rita is going to impact every single one of us, no matter how far we live from landfall. I just can't believe that this can happen TWICE in a single year.
The NWS has a great thing going with their technology... hopefully it'll be around in the future.
Not picking on you, I love your entries. Katrina was a 145 MPH, 918 MB cat. 4 at first U.S. landfall (Buras, southern Plaquemines Parish, LA).
With the recent wobble, I'm betting on it going east of us and sparing us the worst of it. But you know what this place looks like when we get hit with heavy long running rain.
FYI: Just returned from the HEB in Bee Cave, and the usual items were still plentiful, but lines were getting long. The cashier mentioned it's not just Austinites buying for themselves, but also stocking up for the relatives and friends in Houston that are coming up for the weekend to ride out the storm. I'd imagine tonite will be quite a madhouse. A coworker reports that the store @ Wm Cannon & Brodie is already out of some things (large water containers among them).
And I agree w/ AustinGal, I'm just planning for a few days w/o power.
And hope there never is.
But .....
And I would call Katrina a CAT '6' WHICH WAS A JOKE type reply to a previous poster..) before Camille because I think the whole CAT system is antiquated to begin with.
There is no allowance for storm surge and scale of damage. Katrina brought 4 times as much devastation as Camille - maybe more. And Katrina's 902 pressure and 180Kt wind was just about as strong as Camille ever got. VCamille, hoiwever, came ashore as a CAT 5, and Katrina didn't. But Katrina wasbrought enormous CAT 5 destruction.
RITA and how she managed to get to 914mb -- everything was perfect for this storm except the water temps which did not seem to support a CAT 5 - except within the loop current which is where Rita is crossing right now. However, the models did not show the 'perfect environment' until late tonight/Thursday AM -- and by then, the storm will be off loop. Will it stay at the current intensity on Thursday and FRiday? I kind of doubt it, but with enough outflow, and if the styorm can keep moving faster than 10Kts - it could hang in there for as a CAT 5. I'm not sure what the recored is for thee Atlantic basin -- but I don't think there have been CAT 5 storms for more than 48 hours. Just too many things 'get in the way'(unlike the WPAC where hurricanes can live year round. But a hell of a strong CAT 4 seems likely for the duration until that final 12 hour period.
And Dkos -- Darksyde found me -- he's a great guiy, and Dkos is a top end blog. Energy market -- I'm somewhat of an ecxperton the oil sector -- and been trading it for quite some time.
If this storm goes further north - (as in the Galveston area) and takes out the infrastructure that Katrina missed - we will see our total domestic production go down by 10% for the next 6 months -- versus the 5% figure we're sitting with right now. NG will be hit much harder since 80% or more of all GOM NG production is in that area - while crude dominates the eastern GOM fields.
But far worse is our refinery probklem -- and if Kqatrina didn't start the recession already, Rita certainly will.
Steve
3RD LOWEST ON RECORD WIN THE GOM
OK 928mb at noon, 914mb at about 2:30p (CDT) is 10mb drop per hour over for over a 2 hour period.
However drop between 2:36 and 4:16 is a drop of 10mb in almost 2 hours.
Still simply amazing.
Total drop of 84 mb in just about 36 hours, and drop of 52mb in about 12 hours.
Kat's record of 902mb will probably be surpassed before too long tonight.
Definitely one of the factors for the record books should be total energy; Kat was huge.
Sure, Dkos is a great site... if you sit on the leftmost 25% of the political spectrum.
I'm sure even 10 years ago, the running assumption was that those four properties were directly linked. Now we know they still are, but there's other factors. That would probably be Katrina's legacy.
I remember reading something about the Fujita Tornado Scale earlier (it was either posted to or linked from a Wunderground blog). It goes F1 through F5, of course, as anyone who's seen _Twister_ will know :O) Anyway, I noticed a reference to the little-mentioned F6. So I looked it up today, and here it is:
Category F6+-- Inconceivable Tornado Category 319 - 379 mph--
The maximum wind speed of tornadoes is not expected to reach the F6 wind speeds.
(The original post or link was a little more interesting in its descriptiveness, but I don't have that.)
I guess we could mix our weather metaphors a little bit and say that the hurricanes lately are approaching Inconceivable status.
And (FWIW, laydogg that I am) I completely agree with Steve about the CAT system being inadequate (his actual word was "antiquated").
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.
...and she may go lower yet:
SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
Geez.
Several posters have mentioned things about classifying storms with which I agree, like squeak: "Definitely one of the factors for the record books should be total energy"; and the various factors LpAngelRob mentions.
By the way, LpAngelRob, I sent you a message with a few ideas about GIF-makers. I haven't fooled with them in a long time, but hopefully you'll find some of it useful. I'm kind of interested in your idea.
Steve, the temp is 30C 86F at 10,000 feet. That would work out to 121 F at sea level--does you think that the temperature at sea level is close to that high with the dry hot air descending or does this hot dry air not make it to sea level?
Now there's a question I haven't heard before :-))
First, you've assumed a dry adiabatic lapse rate, and it's not -- it would be a moist rate, so it would be more like 2degF/1,000 ft. (or 106deg) And then we have the boundary layer that is probably 500 ft above the ocean surface and lots of surrounding cooler air does 'get in' to the eye. And the ocean which is around 86 deg so it tempers the air temp itself too. All this stuff that scientists around the world are trying to figure out! What the heck is REALLY going on in that lower 500 feet - inside the ye, outside it, and in the convective eye wall.
THAT is a total unknown - no measurements. It is kind of the holy grail for improved intensity forecasts.
*********************************
Posted By: Seth
Steve, does the '70KT jet streak' you mentioned have a venturi effect on the air being sucked up through the eye of Rita? With this upwelling of air, can this explain the rapid decrease in pressure and sudden strengthening?
Yes and no. The air does not go up the center of the eyte -- it goes up the EYEWALL thunderstorms. Then it streams away out of the top of the thunderstorms. The fater it gets away, the faster it can come in at the surface. If the outflow increases, it will allow the surface winds to increase as well.
Steve
898mb -- amazing.....
There is no need for a Cat 6 definition. Do you understand why? For everything Cat 5 and higher, total devastation. This is a warning system. What are you going to warn people about, that they are facing total devastation, and, then, what? Something on top of that?
No, when we talk about the need for different types of warnings, what we're talking about is specific types of warnings: surge warnings, because surge kills. Wind warnings; and separating out the areas that will get hit with the severe winds in the eyewall, which, in a normal hurricane season, is actually a very small number of miles wide, from the areas that will get winds that are not as severe. As we saw with Katrina, surge and wind warnings can be of different intensities, and for different areas of the coastline. Temporal warnings; in the county where my family lived, Jackson County, the western part of the county had hurricane force winds for almost 12 hours, and tropical force winds or higher for 24 hours. A different type of wind damage is caused by long-term winds as opposed to very intense winds with high gusts (roof failure).
Thanks as always for your work in this forum.
I live in Marshall, Tx. which is in NE Texas. With Rita now at a Cat 5 and possibly still growing what will happen in my area if she heads NNE?
a whopper
gargantuous
damn big
whoa
holy sh*t
oh my God
man oh man oh man
what the
super sized
un f n believable
humongus
head for the hills
colossal
tall tale
no way
monster
killer
Cat 6
car wash
paint peeler
irrigation systemn
unbottled water
wasted energy
nightmare on canal street
on and on....
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/aerosonde.html
The first ever flite of this remote controleled 'plane' was last week in Ophelia.
I think the submarine issue is one of not being to withstand the trenmendous wave conditions. I'm way out on the knowle4dge limb here, but I think a strong hurricane could sink a sub if it came too close to the surface. (Sink a sub ... that just sounds weird)
--Oil Drum -- just recently sdiscoverred that site, thanks though.
Some of the best daily information on what is really going on around the country and the world -- only shows up in a few very expensive publications -- as in $2,500/yr for each publication -- and to get the 'whole picture' would cost over $15K a year.
Steve
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