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armadillo at 12:40 AM CDT on September 21, 2005.
I have a question for Steve. I live in Victoria, Texas, about 30 miles inland from Port O'Connor, one of the possible landfall points predicted for Rita. I'm planning to not be here soon. But if a Cat 5, or Cat 4, makes landfall at Port O'Connor, what are the odds I'll still have a house to return to? And (two questions), if this storm, which is large, hits closer to Galveston, about 100 miles up the coast, what kind of wind speeds can be expected in this area, which is south of Galveston and would be east of the storm?
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IF the NORTH or EAST EDGE of the eyewall pass over Victoria - as a strong CAT 4 or CAT 5. The house will be - somewhere else.

If the storm makes it Galveston, you will NOT have major wind damage...

Steve

We had a CAT 6 -- Katrina.

The pressure is 920mb/153kt . I suspect the initial dropsonde missed the center - which happens. And because it was 14 hrs since a RECON -- they deadheaded for the center and dropped it a little off target. Human nature at work...but it happens more often then people realize.

Steve

REF Katrina -- I said when it made landfall on the MS Coast as CAT 3...as in landfall #2. OKAY?


And I would call Katrina a CAT '6' WHICH WAS A JOKE type reply to a previous poster..) before Camille because I think the whole CAT system is antiquated to begin with.

There is no allowance for storm surge and scale of damage. Katrina brought 4 times as much devastation as Camille - maybe more. And Katrina's 902 pressure and 180Kt wind was just about as strong as Camille ever got. VCamille, hoiwever, came ashore as a CAT 5, and Katrina didn't. But Katrina wasbrought enormous CAT 5 destruction.


RITA and how she managed to get to 914mb -- everything was perfect for this storm except the water temps which did not seem to support a CAT 5 - except within the loop current which is where Rita is crossing right now. However, the models did not show the 'perfect environment' until late tonight/Thursday AM -- and by then, the storm will be off loop. Will it stay at the current intensity on Thursday and FRiday? I kind of doubt it, but with enough outflow, and if the styorm can keep moving faster than 10Kts - it could hang in there for as a CAT 5. I'm not sure what the recored is for thee Atlantic basin -- but I don't think there have been CAT 5 storms for more than 48 hours. Just too many things 'get in the way'(unlike the WPAC where hurricanes can live year round. But a hell of a strong CAT 4 seems likely for the duration until that final 12 hour period.

And Dkos -- Darksyde found me -- he's a great guiy, and Dkos is a top end blog. Energy market -- I'm somewhat of an ecxperton the oil sector -- and been trading it for quite some time.

If this storm goes further north - (as in the Galveston area) and takes out the infrastructure that Katrina missed - we will see our total domestic production go down by 10% for the next 6 months -- versus the 5% figure we're sitting with right now. NG will be hit much harder since 80% or more of all GOM NG production is in that area - while crude dominates the eastern GOM fields.

But far worse is our refinery probklem -- and if Kqatrina didn't start the recession already, Rita certainly will.

Steve

904MB - 10MB DROPIN 1 HOUR
3RD LOWEST ON RECORD WIN THE GOM

StSimonsIslandGAGuy
Steve, the temp is 30C 86F at 10,000 feet. That would work out to 121 F at sea level--does you think that the temperature at sea level is close to that high with the dry hot air descending or does this hot dry air not make it to sea level?

Now there's a question I haven't heard before :-))
First, you've assumed a dry adiabatic lapse rate, and it's not -- it would be a moist rate, so it would be more like 2degF/1,000 ft. (or 106deg) And then we have the boundary layer that is probably 500 ft above the ocean surface and lots of surrounding cooler air does 'get in' to the eye. And the ocean which is around 86 deg so it tempers the air temp itself too. All this stuff that scientists around the world are trying to figure out! What the heck is REALLY going on in that lower 500 feet - inside the ye, outside it, and in the convective eye wall.
THAT is a total unknown - no measurements. It is kind of the holy grail for improved intensity forecasts.

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Posted By: Seth
Steve, does the '70KT jet streak' you mentioned have a venturi effect on the air being sucked up through the eye of Rita? With this upwelling of air, can this explain the rapid decrease in pressure and sudden strengthening?

Yes and no. The air does not go up the center of the eyte -- it goes up the EYEWALL thunderstorms. Then it streams away out of the top of the thunderstorms. The fater it gets away, the faster it can come in at the surface. If the outflow increases, it will allow the surface winds to increase as well.

Steve

898mb -- amazing.....

Reference measuring the lower boundary level - check this out:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/aerosonde.html

The first ever flite of this remote controleled 'plane' was last week in Ophelia.

I think the submarine issue is one of not being to withstand the trenmendous wave conditions. I'm way out on the knowle4dge limb here, but I think a strong hurricane could sink a sub if it came too close to the surface. (Sink a sub ... that just sounds weird)

--Oil Drum -- just recently sdiscoverred that site, thanks though.

Some of the best daily information on what is really going on around the country and the world -- only shows up in a few very expensive publications -- as in $2,500/yr for each publication -- and to get the 'whole picture' would cost over $15K a year.

Steve