Big Rains Moving In

By: SouthernIllinois , 12:01 PM GMT on May 02, 2013

These next couple days are going to get very interesting. A strong low pressure system moving very slowly will draw up copious moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Right now all the major models are suggesting 1.50" to perhaps up to 3" of rain by Saturday morning for all of Southern Illinois.

CLIMATE DATEBASE FOR 1981-2010

Marion, IL Maximium Temperature Normal for week of 4/28 - 5/4

Date: 3/28 3/29 3/30 04/1 04/2 04/3 04/4
Temp: 70.2 70.5 70.8 71.0 71.3 71.6 71.9

click on each image for a larger view and for the direct link








HPC Total Precipitation Amounts: Days 1 & 2 QPF (click to enlarge image)





Climatological average of solar radiation for the month of April for the CONUS. In other words, this essentially is a measure of the number of days in the month of April an area would receive sunshine.

click on each image for larger view and link


Below is a map depicting the Spring Freeze Occurrence of a 10% Probability of 28 Degrees or Less On a Later Date From the NCDC

click to enlarge map



click to enlarge and for link

click on image to enlarge

click image for animation

click for animation











click on map to enlarge

click on each image for larger image and for 24 frame animation


click image for larger view

Plymouth State Weather Regional Radar Loop



May Climatology.(click each image for a larger view)

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32. WunderAlertBot
7:46 PM GMT on May 04, 2013
SouthernIllinois has created a new entry.
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23288
31. SouthernIllinois
7:26 PM GMT on May 04, 2013
click for larger image
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
30. SouthernIllinois
7:01 PM GMT on May 04, 2013
Graphical Nowcast Below:

Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
29. VR46L
9:55 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:


Kiss Ass!! That is perfect. :P

Hey, no problem. My geography is about as good as a Oklahoma Panhandle rancher in New York City when it comes to knowing anything geographically about Great Britain and more specifically, Ireland. :-)



Well you definitely dont know your European Geography... You have made as big a mistake as saying someone from Florida is from Louisiana....

LOL


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28. SouthernIllinois
4:35 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Wild stuff right now:

Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
27. SouthernIllinois
3:59 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


Thats Debatable will try :P





Is that better ... My US Geography is not that good ...


Kiss Ass!! That is perfect. :P

Hey, no problem. My geography is about as good as a Oklahoma Panhandle rancher in New York City when it comes to knowing anything geographically about Great Britain and more specifically, Ireland. :-)
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
26. VR46L
3:02 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Great image, by the way. Is there any way you can pan that a bit south and west to include all of Illinois??


Thats Debatable will try :P





Is that better ... My US Geography is not that good ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7132
25. SouthernIllinois
2:57 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
The 12Z NAM has finished running and here are the precipitation totals out to 84 hours.

Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
24. SouthernIllinois
2:42 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Should be getting some rain .... sorry for crashing your blog LOL


Great image, by the way. Is there any way you can pan that a bit south and west to include all of Illinois??
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
23. SouthernIllinois
2:39 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Should be getting some rain .... sorry for crashing your blog LOL


No, no worries at all! Just don't be posting images that screw my blog up like ArkWeather screwed it up over at Doc's earlier this morning!! J/K :-)

Thanks for dropping by. Unfortunately, it should stay dry until probably after 2pm before the real action comes in. I was hoping it would start earlier! But that's okay. The latest models are still suggesting between 1.25" and 2.00" for my location. With that said, I am still very hopeful!!
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
22. SouthernIllinois
2:37 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
21. VR46L
2:05 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Should be getting some rain .... sorry for crashing your blog LOL

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7132
20. SouthernIllinois
12:41 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
UPDATE:

AccuWeather now has us down for a grand total of 2.5" of rainfall through Sunday morning.
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
19. SouthernIllinois
12:28 PM GMT on May 03, 2013
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
18. SouthernIllinois
11:50 AM GMT on May 03, 2013
48 Hour Total Accumulated Precipitation From the 06Z GFS:

click for link
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17. SouthernIllinois
11:50 AM GMT on May 03, 2013
48 Hour Total Accumulated Precipitation From the 06Z GFS:

click for link
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
16. SouthernIllinois
11:50 AM GMT on May 03, 2013
48 Hour Total Accumulated Precipitation From the 06Z GFS:

click for link
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
15. SouthernIllinois
1:10 AM GMT on May 03, 2013
A cold front will move through much of southeast Missouri before stalling out near the Mississippi River late this evening. Showers are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the evening. The individual showers will move slowly to the north or even north northwest, while the larger area of showers spreads slowly eastward. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible east of the Mississippi River. The first round of heavier rain is expected over southeast Missouri overnight.

Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
14. SouthernIllinois
10:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
@ 13:

Thanks, VR! I am okay for now. I am down in Williamson County in Southern Illinois. If you see any warnings out of the Paducah NWS Office, it may very well entail my area.

Thanks again, though. Hoping the severe stuff stays away and we just see some nice, moderate/steady soaking rains for a long time. Hoping for 3' or more. We shall see!
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
13. VR46L
7:43 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Saw this and thought of you!


243
WUUS53 KILX 021930
SVRILX
ILC019-147-022000-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0025.130502T1930Z-130502T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 222 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEYMOUR...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...MANSFIELD...MAHOMET...LAKE OF THE WOODS...
THOMASBORO...FISHER...DEWEY AND FOOSLAND.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 219 AND 252.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 182.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 8820 3997 8874 4027 8858 4028 8857
4029 8846 4034 8846 4040 8845 4040 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 193DEG 25KT 4012 8838

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KMH





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12. SouthernIllinois
6:23 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
The latest GGEM mirrors the other major models suggesting a wide swath of 1.50" to 3" of rainfall likely. At this moment, flash flooding does not appear likely. But it can't be ruled out. Keep in mind that totals will be higher up to 4" or 5" locally where thunderstorms occur repeatedly over the same area.

The counties in the western half of our forecasting zone are under a Flood Watch.

I hope everyone is ready, because it is right at our doorstep!
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
11. SouthernIllinois
4:16 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Big rains on the way. Here's the 12Z GFS Out to 120 Hours (Total Precipitation Amounts)

click to enlarge
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
10. SouthernIllinois
2:32 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
UPDATE:

Just checked the models over at AccuWeather here in Williamson County and it is looking very very favorable for us. They are spitting out exactly 2.0" through early Saturday morning. That seems very reasonable given that it is AccuWeather.
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
9. SouthernIllinois
1:49 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


I saw on a friends Weather station Data Near there they got 8 inches and I dont think its stopped yet ... kinda unfair Texas really could do with that and MS AL could do with a week without ... Nice Link appreciate It .

and thanks for the imagery praise Kinda my thing ....

Hey, NP. Yeah, that snow is CRAZY! I can't even remember a time where that part of the country received anything like that...

I concur, Liz. Texas is in bad need of rain. Starting to sound like a broken record saying that, but it's SO TRUE! :-)
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
8. VR46L
1:02 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Thanks, VR. Love the neat, cool visible and infrared imagery you display at Doc's blog. It's a nice variety to use and analyze these beautiful entities that we love for!! :-)

Yes, LOADS of moisture. I'm waiting for the AHPS Precipitation Analysis to finishing loading. I'm eager to see just how much Gulfport and nearby areas received with the flash flooding last evening.


I saw on a friends Weather station Data Near there they got 8 inches and I dont think its stopped yet ... kinda unfair Texas really could do with that and MS AL could do with a week without ... Nice Link appreciate It .

and thanks for the imagery praise Kinda my thing ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7132
7. SouthernIllinois
12:54 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER
WESTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL GENERATE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND KENTUCKY
ADJACENT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY FROM A MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS...MAYFIELD KENTUCKY
LINE...WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH 10 PM
CDT FRIDAY.

WITH RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI ALREADY CAUSING
PROBLEMS FOR RESIDENTS ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVER...THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE PROBLEMS FOR OVERLAND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVY RAIN...IT IS STILL TO
EARLY TO DELINEATE ANY AREA THAT MAY REQUIRE A FLOOD WATCH. THE
MAIN GOAL OF A POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE TO HEIGHTEN
AWARENESS OF BACKWATER FROM RIVER CHANNELS AND NEW RAINFALL
QUICKLY RUNNING OFF INTO THE RIVER.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOOTHILLS MAY
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TO PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AT AND
BELOW THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.

IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION...RADIO AND THE INTERNET
FOR THE LATEST WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

$$

SMITH
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
6. SouthernIllinois
12:54 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Nice Blog.

Look at the rain that is to Fall near the Northern Gulf .... heard some parts got awful amount Yesterday ..

Thanks, VR. Love the neat, cool visible and infrared imagery you display at Doc's blog. It's a nice variety to use and analyze these beautiful atmospheric entities that we live for!! :-)

Yes, LOADS of moisture. I'm waiting for the AHPS Precipitation Analysis to finishing loading. I'm eager to see just how much Gulfport and nearby areas received with the flash flooding last evening.
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
5. VR46L
12:17 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Nice Blog.

Look at the rain that is to Fall near the Northern Gulf .... heard some parts got awful amount Yesterday ..
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7132
4. SouthernIllinois
12:12 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Total 96 Hour Precipitation (beginning 24 hours from now) from the GFS (06Z) almost assures us that we'll get at least an inch of rain Friday into the weekend.

click to enlarge
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
3. SouthernIllinois
12:12 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Total 5 Day Precipitation from the GFS (06Z) almost assures us that we'll get at least an inch of rain Friday into the weekend.

click to enlarge
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
2. SouthernIllinois
12:12 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Total 5 Day Precipitation from the GFS (06Z) almost assures us that we'll get at least an inch of rain Friday into the weekend.

click to enlarge
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168
1. SouthernIllinois
12:12 PM GMT on May 02, 2013
Total 5 Day Precipitation from the GFS (06Z) almost assures us that we'll get at least an inch of rain Friday into the weekend.

click to enlarge
Member Since: April 16, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 3168

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Greetings from the dense, thick, high diversity mesophytic hardwood forests of So. IL. I'm Natalie. I'm 24 & have a deep passion for weather & trees!

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