Tropic Watch 7/24/11

By: SouthDadeFish , 10:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2011

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After the recent upswing in activity, the tropics are somewhat quiet today. The only feature in the Atlantic is invest 90L, most recently located at 17.5N 70.0W. Satellite imagery indicates the disturbance is pretty disorganized, with scattered convection firing mostly over Hispaniola.


Figure 1.1: 2145Z IR image of the Caribbean.

The tropical wave is having a hard time getting organized due to fast lower level winds that are making it difficult for a west wind to establish, which is necessary for a closed circulation. This is also reflected by low 850mb vorticity, which is another indicator that 90L is not very organized. The fast lower level winds are expected to continue until around Tuesday when 90L reaches the NW Caribbean. This will be its biggest window to develop.

None of the reliable computer models (ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS) are forecasting 90L to develop into a tropical cyclone. Although I was somewhat optimistic of this feature earlier, its current appearance is not very promising. My personal forecast gives this disturbance about a 15% chance to ever become a tropical cyclone. Regardless, the main threat will be heavy rainfall for Hispaniola, Cuba, South Florida and surrounding areas as the disturbance travels WNW at around 20 mph.

Elsewhere, the tropics are fairly quiet, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting development. Nonetheless, the tropics should quickly ramp up around the second week of August. The long-range computer model forecasts are extremely bullish with low pressures throughout the Caribbean and SW Atlantic through the peak of the hurricane season.


Figure 2.1: EUROSIP MSLP forecast for August, September, and October. Notice the low anomalies. The lower pressures suggest more tropical activity then normal in the blue areas. The darker the blue the stronger the anomalies.

I will be starting to update more regularly as the peak of hurricane season approaches. Stay tuned for more updates (hopefully daily).

Thanks for reading,
Fish

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3. SouthDadeFish
11:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Thanks! It should definitely be an active Cape Verde season. The important factor is where the A/B high sets up. Hopefully it's like last year, although I doubt it. We'll know more in around two weeks.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
2. Tropicsweatherpr
10:49 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Good blog. That graphic of the lower pressures in the Caribbean and MDR is a precursor of an active CV season and the Caribbean may be a hot spot.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
1. KoritheMan
10:47 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Thanks for the update. Agree about the upswing in activity beginning in August.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344

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About SouthDadeFish

I have my B.S. in atmospheric science from Florida International University and am currently in graduate school conducting hurricane research.

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