ABC 2009

By: Skyepony , 12:43 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Atlantic~~
92L

03L BILL

RGB LOOP

East Pacific

93E


Central Pacific
11E HILDA



94C


West Pacific
98W




11W VAMCO



Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere




A site to check out storms.

A place to check for invests

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Garden~

TRASH TO TOMATO CHALLENGE

When to plant what & how in Florida. (scroll down about 2/3rds)

From the moon calender of the Farmer's Almanac


August 2009

24-26 Good Days For Planting Above ground Crops. Excellent For Sowing Grains, Winter Wheat, Oats, And Rye. Plant Flowers.

27-28 Plant Peas, Beans, Tomatoes, Peppers, And Other Above ground Crops In Southern Florida, California, And Texas. Extra Good For Leafy Vegetables. Plant Seedbeds.

29-31 Cut Winter Wood, Do Clearing And Plowing, But No Planting.

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Local Weather~
Good surf & bad rip currents on tap. Chances of rain & afternoon storms are good. Once again watch the lightning.

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

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ECFL TDWR High Definition Radar

Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current....Flood.......Lightning.....Severe Hail...Severe Winds....Tornados........Frost............Fire




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook



Watching for rain & minimum temps..
click maps to go interactive








click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.
Red Tide (FL & TX)


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Rainman Weather 3-D Radar
Ramsdis
Good place to keep up & look at invests.
Satellite views from around the world, pick your view GOES EAST WEST 10 & 13, MET-IOCD, MET-PRIME, MTSAT, FY2C or KALPANA, ..(this links to a nice shot of Europe you can choose from there).

Models/ what not~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.
Current weather extremes

Recon~
NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance
Tropical Atlantic

Click to make maps bigger.

850mb Relitive Vorticity..................300-850mb Steering



HAZARDS


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ENSO Update

weekly CPC report is out.



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Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map!
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Around-The-World Equestrian Expedition

Hurricane Bill's swell hits FL (thehinge)
Jacksonville Beach, FL on Friday evening. A thunderstorm just a few blocks away and building swell in the ocean.
Hurricane Bill's swell hits FL
Key West Water Spout (KWJuls)
Water spouts tonight north of Key West
Key West Water Spout

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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379. Skyepony
2:13 PM GMT on August 24, 2009
Good morning all. Thanks Aqua, the kids loved it.

The invest is that area I've pointed out the last few days. The monster upper level low is keeping it in check for the moment. May move away over the next 2 days allowing development. Looks like a possible problem for Bahamas & Eastern North Carolina.

Hilda got moved to C Pac. & WOW Vamco..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
378. aquak9
11:21 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
off topic as usual, but here's a little friend for your little ones.

img src="Photobucket",>
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27676
377. Skyepony
3:11 PM GMT on August 23, 2009
Good morning all. 93E, 94C & 98W are new 97W is gone. There was a pretty good floater shuffle too. NOAA has 94C where FNMOC doesn't have 94C up. I'd think some one on the navy side has seen it for it to get a #.

The tropics are on an uptick with the eastern & central pacific getting in more than usual. This is expected for an El Niño year.

Central America be warned. Outside chance that blob over Northern South America comes off & develops quickly before hitting you & becoming an EPAC storm.

Wabit called the turning factor for CMC's forecasted Bahama Blob. This latest run speeds the front, turning the storm before FL.

As for Bill He's on track with Nova Scotia spared the brunt but Newfoundland posed for a landfall. Best of luck..

AF304 just took off on a training mission.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
376. whitewabit (Mod)
12:28 AM GMT on August 23, 2009
Bill has made his turn .. moving to the NNE now hoping the hook is sharp... still many in harms way...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
375. whitewabit (Mod)
12:08 AM GMT on August 23, 2009
don't like the looks of the CMC ...

Skye front moving through here Wed early am cooling us down about 10 degrees would that match up with the turning to the NE you see at the end at 144 hours???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
374. Skyepony
6:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
You know it Gamma, here comes the height of season~ CMC has been very insistent & consistent with that one..



gfs shears that wave & develops the next.

Fresh fix on Bill
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 17:37Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 17:10:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 35°42'N 68°56'W (35.7N 68.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 334 miles (537 km) to the NW (315°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,781m (9,124ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the SE (142°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 234° at 83kts (From the SW at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
373. seflagamma
5:55 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
Hi skye,

so they are now going to keep an eye on that new blob??? guess we will too.

happy Saturday to you.. oh yes, back at work yesterday and today.LOL


have a great weekend!

visit dazzlejunction.com
Weekend Comments
Myspace Comments - Myspace 2.0 Layouts
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41026
372. Skyepony
12:55 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
NOAA declared the low in the ITCZ an invest. Doesn't look like much at the moment. They were pretty generious with the floaters too..

Happy weather people:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
371. Skyepony
12:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2009
Good morning. Never like to see fushia over me on the lightning forecast.

Some surfers are at Cape Canaveral this morning.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
370. Skyepony
5:27 AM GMT on August 22, 2009
Yay hail.. Sounds pretty strong & cold. Hope that's not pounding a garden of yours.

Slowly weakening..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 04:38Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 3:57:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°30'N 67°58'W (31.5N 67.9667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 194 miles (312 km) to the WSW (253°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,760m (9,055ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SSW (202°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 289° at 75kts (From the WNW at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SSW (202°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 4:09:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 4:09:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INNER EYEWALL COVERAGE 50 PERCENT NE SEMICIRCLE
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
369. whitewabit (Mod)
9:37 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
people wondering how strong the trouph is ...

its 61 degrees and has been hailing dime size rocks for the last 10 minutes...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
368. Skyepony
9:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Click on the map to go interactive with it..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
367. Skyepony
8:12 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Looks to be holding intensity okay.. Upper winds suggest there is higher surface winds yet to find.

Gamma glad you got to drag the fun out a little. Guess it's back to work with ya.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
366. Skyepony
8:09 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:53:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°53'N 66°53'W (28.8833N 66.8833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 267 miles (430 km) to the SSW (208°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,701m (8,862ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 67kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:51:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:06:50Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
365. seflagamma
7:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Hi Skye,

Happy Friday to you!
Well, I survived Wed night; but yesterday morning was pretty rough! LOL


I would be remiss if I didn't stop by your blog and say Thank You for being one of the many that helped make my birthday even brighter this week!
Thank you so much!!!

now back to reality and work again..

have a great weekend!




Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41026
364. Skyepony
7:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
A few years back Masters ask me to send him any that hit an eye. I usually check through the data processing. See the path around the earth & zoom to anything interesting. Because I'd seen it before I knew it had hit eye before going to the navy site to look at the passes per storm to verify. I don't know why I get so excited, I think it's the resolution & to see an awesome pass, the rarity. They really do help give a sense of intensity potential with a good pass & something like Bill~ a unique look at the structure of a monster. Nice hot tower.

Bill looks a little right of forecast. Maybe a little more Bill for Bermuda. That would be good news to Nova Scotia.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
363. Rainman32
7:37 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
I just got around to Doc's blog and saw that CloudSat myself! I was dropping by to dub Skye "Official Sat Master"

Excellent Catch! 8^)
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
362. whitewabit (Mod)
7:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Bills eye only half as big as it was yesterday...

Skye do you think his winds are below 100mph now???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
361. whitewabit (Mod)
7:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
saw Masters used the Cloudsat pic on his blog...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
360. Skyepony
5:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 16:36:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°12'N 66°32'W (28.2N 66.5333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 302 miles (486 km) to the SSW (200°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,720m (8,924ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 65kts (From the NW at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:33:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:49:50Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
359. Skyepony
2:15 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
I like Yarmouth to Halifax Nova Scotia for a Bill landfall. I'd be nervious on Nantucket & the elbow of Mass that the NOGAPS keeps running over. I expect at worst a hard brush for them.

For next storm development we've got a few areas off Africa that may pull together & have some scattered model support. One is that blob that just made it onto the GOES-EAST view. Bad CMC~ pretty much brings in well on it's way here in 5 days.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
358. Skyepony
1:33 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Here's the last vortex lastnight. After I went to sleep.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 06:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 5:48:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°28'N 64°52'W (25.4667N 64.8667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 473 miles (761 km) to the S (180°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,674m (8,773ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (303°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 32° at 83kts (From the NNE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (303°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:48:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 5:53:10Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
357. Skyepony
1:26 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Looks like they turned on AF300 to head out there.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
356. whitewabit (Mod)
8:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
61 degrees...

Bill looking poorly comming out of D-Max tonite
his eye is almost completely covered now and a slot of dry air very close to the eye looks like it will get into the core..

NHC at the 2 said he had diminished to 120 mph and looks like he might be less then that now..

shear from the southwest and a little bit of dryier air throwing a lot of punches right now at him...

But with weakening will he move more west now...only time will tell as the trouph is already affecting him with a more northerly track the last 24 hours...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
355. whitewabit (Mod)
4:54 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
the warm front passed by me 4 hours ago headed for the coast ... just got a quick shower line passed over only lasted about 20 minutes... temp has dropped down to 64º on its way to 55º for a low overnite... low to mid 50's for the next 3 days as the high sinks down from Canada... normal around 68º for the low...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
354. whitewabit (Mod)
4:45 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Skye am greatly surprised at the speed in which Bill has lost the convection on his west side... the deep convection on his west side is subsiding very quickly now... if dryer air got to his core believe the intensity could drop ... which I would like to see because some of the swells would have time to diminish in size before hitting the coast...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
353. whitewabit (Mod)
4:38 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Condesa... Hello...wet up here where I'm at... 10 inches above normal... but our area is an exception as there are many areas that badly need rain... through out the world the rain pattern has seem to have changed...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
352. Skyepony
4:29 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
That's the best Cloudsat in at least a year. It was so good I wundermailed it to Jeff.

Condesa~ I kept getting rain out of a cloudless, hot, sunny sky today. I've got grass shrivling up on me.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
351. Skyepony
4:26 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Bill's eye is shrinking. Trying to save himself. If this shear keeps up he's in trouble. The high over him broke down so even if he weakened now biggest worries would be up there by Nova Scotia & Newfoundland. Would be nice to not have the waves peak. There should be noticeable erosion from what's been churned out there already.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
350. condesa
4:21 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Hi Skye, Wabbit-
That cloudsat shot is amazing.
Doesn't seem to be much rain anywhere though, does it?
349. whitewabit (Mod)
4:18 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
that hardly ever happens.. usually it doesn't show it for 2 passes when you want it to show an area...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
348. Skyepony
3:53 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
I know this was yesterday but wow.. Cloudsat caught Bill across the eye..



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
347. whitewabit (Mod)
2:40 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Bill is looking ragged this evening after he lost most of the moisture on his west side... dry air appears ready to be entrained toward the eye... think the pressure will rise the next time they check and may slip to a Cat 2...

doesn't look like he will make the high wave mark which they had predicted at 50 ft...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
346. Skyepony
1:17 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 00:19Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Bill6
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 23:59Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°16'N 63°47'W (24.2667N 63.7833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 431 miles (693 km) to the NNE (20°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,625m (8,612ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 210° at 104kts (From the SSW at ~ 119.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (108°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,099m (10,167ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:54Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SUR WND 95 KTS NW QUAD.
SUR PRESS FROM DROPSONDE.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
345. aquak9
12:03 AM GMT on August 21, 2009
Hi skye. Been lurking mostly; nothing of interest to add.

Nicotina seems ok; looks like tiny african violet plants, fuzzy leaves hugging the ground. Still not over an inch tall, but alive nonetheless. One broomgrass growing kinda slanted, no others came up. Still appreciated- a cool addition.

Looking forward to Bill's waves. Very hopeful to find all sorts of teeth and fossils washed up. Some mastodon, beaver, or camel teeth are always an exciting find. Maybe some seaglass, some other colors besides brown and green would be great.

Curious to see what the beach will look like- guess I'll take the camera. Rain says never to get my hopes up- sometimes its seaweed, bottles, shoes and yuk, other times it's live whelks and cockles, and sharks teeth to make you squeal.

I think we all deserve to relax this weekend, after the whacked-out weekend we just went thru.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27676
344. LakeWorthFinn
11:21 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Hi guys!
Yahoo new article: World sets ocean temperature record
YIKES :(
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
343. Rainman32
7:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Good Afternoon! (89.5°F)


Photogenic Bill is hamming it up and continuing to provide plenty to look at this week. From NOAA/NESDIS Operational Significant Event Imagery and NASA Earth Observatory Natural Hazards Today's Sat Pics O' The Day.


IMAGE D6140: METOP Image Type=combine 8/20/2009 13:13:38 UTC.



This METOP satellite image was captured on August 19, at 1313 UTC. On August 20, at 1500 UTC the eye of Hurricane was located 22.6N 61.7W about 380 miles north of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane Bill is moving northwest at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and it is currently a Category 3 Hurricane.


Hurricane Bill



download large image (6 MB, JPEG) acquired September 19, 2009

download large image (1 KB, KML) acquired August 19, 2009

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was slow to get started, but Hurricane Bill appeared to be trying to make up for lost time. On average, the first hurricane of the season usually arrives by August 14, and Bill did not reach that benchmark until August 17. Within two days, however, Bill had strengthened into a Category 4 storm.

This image of Hurricane Bill was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite on August 19, 2009, at 10:45 a.m. local time in the Dominican Republic. At this time, Hurricane Bill had sustained winds of 135 mph, making it a powerful Category 4 storm.

The image conveys the warning that the National Hurricane Center gave in their 11:00 a.m. advisory on August 19: "Bill is a large storm, and hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center." Bill stretches more than 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) across this image, and the storm’s partially cloud-filled eye is nearly 50 kilometers (31 miles) wide.

The high-resolution image provided above is at MODIS’ full spatial resolution (level of detail) of 250 meters per pixel. The MODIS Rapid Response System provides this image at additional resolutions.

References
Hurricane Bill at the National Hurricane Center

NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.
Instrument: Terra - MODIS
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
342. Skyepony
6:59 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
ANA, MAKA & 2 invests, one from Central Pacific one in the West Pacific are gone. 97W is new.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
341. Skyepony
6:49 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 18:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 17:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°14'N 62°36'W (23.2333N 62.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 402 miles (646 km) to the NE (34°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,652m (8,701ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 76 nautical miles (87 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 9° at 102kts (From the N at ~ 117.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W/WNW (281°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (27.99 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,078m (10,098ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,074m (10,085ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 134kts (~ 154.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:57:50Z


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
340. Skyepony
6:28 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
946.7 mb
(~ 27.96 inHg)

oops forgot the pressure..

Thanks Finn, yeah Damon stopped in here during Fay too.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
339. Skyepony
6:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Recon just hit center ~23.200N 62.400W.. 82 knots (~ 94.3 mph) surface coming out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
338. Skyepony
6:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 20th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 23.3N 62.8W
Location: 398 miles (641 km) to the NNE (32°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 079 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
958mb (28.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 330° (from the NNW) 82 knots (94 mph)
1000mb -377m (-1237 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 312m (1,024 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 345° (from the NNW) 114 knots (131 mph)
850mb 1,051m (3,448 ft) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 5° (from the N) 103 knots (119 mph)
700mb 2,721m (8,927 ft) 10.8°C (51.4°F) Approximately 4°C (39°F) 355° (from the N) 69 knots (79 mph)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
337. LakeWorthFinn
4:55 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
OGal, Damon was on the blogs for a few days:

Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
336. OGal
4:28 PM GMT on August 20, 2009
Sorry guys just need to pop in for a moment.

Skye, Damon showed up during Fay? Where did he show up? Please let me know. To my knowledge no one has seen him since 2007.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
335. Bogon
11:19 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Anguilla reports the kind of weather you would expect from a tropical island: 80° and humid with a light north wind. They are expecting rain and wind later from a set of bands trailing behind Bill, which extend all the way to South America.

Bill is severely distorted at the moment. On the southwestern side, facing the islands, I would estimate something on the order of a hundred miles between the outermost clouds and the central circulation. On the back side heavy clouds and rain bands lag the center by as much as five hundred miles.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 84 Comments: 4294
334. whitewabit (Mod)
5:34 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
pressure staying steady but wind up and down...
its almost like he pivots around one part of the eye and thats causing all of his jogs...
don't recall one moving around this much ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35051
333. Skyepony
4:55 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Here's a fresh vortex message..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 04:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
Storm Name: Bill (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 4:06:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°47'N 59°16'W (20.7833N 59.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 472 miles (760 km) to the ENE (70°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,654m (8,707ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (355°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72° at 112kts (From the ENE at ~ 128.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNW/N (348°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (27.99 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) in the north quadrant at 4:01:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the N (8°) from the flight level center
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
332. Skyepony
4:53 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
I'm quoting the 11pm update since it's too late for that sort of math...

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY.

That's with in a few miles of what we've seen the last few days, so no major change in forward speed.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
331. LakeWorthFinn
4:45 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Maximum Surface Wind ~ 97.8mph ?
Has he slowed down?
Please translate to us dummies... thanks!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
330. Skyepony
3:42 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
The vortex is from the research flight about an hour & 1/2 ago.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210
329. Skyepony
3:41 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
AF 303 just arrived.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 03:09Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Bill4
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 29
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 2:01Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°27'N 58°41'W (20.45N 58.6833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 501 miles (807 km) to the ENE (74°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,651m (8,698ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the E (89°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 171° at 114kts (From the S at ~ 131.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (76°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.02 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,078m (10,098ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30° to 210° (NNE to SSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 133kts (~ 153.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:23Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CORRECTION TO OB 22 FOR 700 MB HEIGHT AND WIND REMARK
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41210

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Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Farmer, I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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