ECFL Swirl Spotting

By: Skyepony , 4:12 AM GMT on September 22, 2007

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TS Lorenzo

RGB loop




28/0645 UTC 20.5N 97.2W OVERLAND LORENZO
27/2345 UTC 20.4N 96.1W T3.0/3.0 LORENZO
27/1745 UTC 20.8N 95.3W T2.5/2.5 LORENZO
27/1145 UTC 21.0N 95.5W T1.5/2.0 13L
27/1145 UTC 21.0N 95.5W T1.5/2.0 13L
27/0645 UTC 21.0N 95.2W T2.0/2.5 13L
26/2345 UTC 21.2N 94.7W T2.0/2.5 13L
26/1745 UTC 21.1N 94.5W T2.5/2.5 13L
26/1145 UTC 21.1N 94.9W T2.5/2.5 13L
26/0645 UTC 21.6N 95.8W T2.0/2.0 13L
25/2345 UTC 21.5N 95.1W T1.5/1.5 13L
25/1745 UTC 22.2N 94.8W T1.5/1.5 94L
25/1145 UTC 22.3N 94.9W T1.0/1.0 94L
25/0645 UTC 22.5N 94.6W T1.0/1.0 94L
24/2345 UTC 22.5N 94.0W TOO WEAK 94L
24/1745 UTC 22.3N 93.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
24/1145 UTC 21.7N 92.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
24/0645 UTC 21.5N 91.9W TOO WEAK 94L

.........
Tropical Storm Karen~ 35kts 1009mb.


RGB loop
28/2345 UTC 16.6N 51.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
28/1745 UTC 15.9N 49.2W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
28/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.0W T1.5/2.5 KAREN
28/0545 UTC 13.9N 49.3W T2.0/2.5 KAREN
27/2345 UTC 14.0N 48.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
27/1745 UTC 14.2N 47.9W T2.0/3.0 KAREN
27/0545 UTC 13.1N 46.0W T3.0/3.5 KAREN
26/2345 UTC 12.7N 44.5W T3.0/3.5 KAREN
26/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.5W T3.5/3.5 KAREN
26/1145 UTC 11.8N 42.1W T3.5/3.5 KAREN
26/0545 UTC 11.1N 41.2W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
25/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.3W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
25/1745 UTC 10.5N 39.7W T2.0/2.5 KAREN
25/1145 UTC 10.6N 37.7W T2.5/2.5 KAREN
25/0545 UTC 10.2N 36.8W T2.5/2.5 12L
24/2345 UTC 10.0N 36.6W T2.5/2.5 96L
24/1745 UTC 9.9N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
24/1145 UTC 9.0N 31.3W T1.0/1.0 96L
24/0600 UTC 8.7N 30.6W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/2345 UTC 7.8N 30.3W TOO WEAK 96L
23/1800 UTC 7.5N 28.5W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/1215 UTC 6.3N 27.1W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/0600 UTC 6.0N 25.8W T1.0/1.0 96L






TD 14

RGB LOOP



29/0000 UTC 14.3N 27.3W T1.5/1.5 14L
28/1745 UTC 13.8N 26.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
28/1145 UTC 13.7N 25.7W T1.5/1.5 99L
...........
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive






Friday~ trough swings down, moves the surface low toward New England. Rain chances drop, bestchance~ interior afternoon seabreeze.

Sat~50% afternoon showers

Sunday-Thursday..low develops on a trough, probibly around the Bahamas, rain & wind possible.






click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
September 24 La Nina Update~ weekly CPC report is out.





Region 1-2 DECREASED FROM -1.9 to -2.1
Region 3 remained -1.2
Region 3.4 INCREASED from -.9 to -.8
Region 4 DECREASED FROM -.4 to -.5



ESPI ROSE FROM -1.08 TO -0.76

We are in La Nia conditions 7 weeks now.


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110. LakeWorthFinn
11:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
yeah Skye, you left a :) on her blog and my friend came to smile backatchya. She's leaving for Spain tomorrow, but liked FL so much she wants to live here part of the year. Nice.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
109. aquak9
11:20 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
Hi Skye. Local NWS gives us nothing but a tease of rain chances for this week, and winds w/gusts up to 30mph thru early tuesday morning. None of thies bears well for the red tide situation, now spreading southward, from Nassau county into Volusia.
Hints of possible development almost seem hopeful, as with no rain, the red tide will come further up our river, and further inland, harming marine life, and humans as well.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
108. Skyepony
10:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
Psu~ on a Sat morning?? Uhg.

Nasty looking cluster headed mostly toward Martin County next.

CMC has a nasty storm for the Carolinas & ramps up Karen for PR & Hispanolia

gfdl slowly moves karen WNW for 5 days

gfs a weak storm rolls through the caribbean

NOGAPS has a TS for FL then slowly builds Karen up to a monster, once in lat with FL, sends her west...nogaps is getting consistant.

Ukmet fish storms everyting but the one that comes for the east coast in the others, but the ukmet sends it disorganized into MX
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
107. psualum95
10:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
609 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...


AT 606 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM MAGIC KINGDOM TO WEST LAKE TOHO...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE ANIMAL KINGDOM...
CAMPBELL...PLEASURE ISLAND AND POINCIANA PLACE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
106. psualum95
9:41 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
SKYE- I was at work this morning :o(

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-

530 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...SHOWERS AND SQUALLS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...AND NORTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...


AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM MIMS TO
TITUSVILLE AND CAPE CANAVERAL...AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT 30
MILES OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET. THIS BAND WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
30 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY
CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

$$


CRISTALDI
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
105. Skyepony
4:51 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
Morning Ya'll

psu~ every little cloud is mean this morning for so little clouds & atleast 2 waterspouts~ ya missed the one that came ashore in Malabar/Barefoot Bay around 9 this morning. Hope everyone is okay. Barefoot Bay is a bunch of retired folks mostly living in mobile homes.

well looks okay~ dug up the local damage reports for today...so far, ya'll be careful out there.

000
NWUS52 KMLB 291612
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1212 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 AM TSTM WND GST NEW SMYRNA BEACH 29.03N 80.92W
09/29/2007 E45 MPH VOLUSIA FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

BEACH PATROL AT NEW SYMRNA BEACH LIFEGUARD STATION
REPORTED AN ESTIMATED WIND GUST TO 45 MPH.


&&

$$

JRC




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NWUS52 KMLB 291354
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 ESE PALM BAY 27.96N 80.58W
09/29/2007 BREVARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SPOTTER OBSERVED A FUNNEL CLOUD 5-10 MILES ESE OF
INTERSECTION OF MINTON RD. AND AMERICANA BLVD. IN PALM
BAY.


&&

$$

JRC




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NWUS52 KMLB 291350
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 AM WATER SPOUT 1 S MELBOURNE BEACH 28.05N 80.56W
09/29/2007 BREVARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A WATERSPOUT BETWEEN 908 AND 916 AM
OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST SOUTH OF
SPESSARD HOLLAND PARK IN MELBOURNE BEACH.


&&

$$

JRC



I'll have to try to get to the beach tommarrow. I few days ago I posted expecting 10' waves on Sunday, but 12'? wow. I'm tempted, but in no shape for it. Maybe just take pics or pull out my PFD. hhmm


Karen is on life support..may not make it.

Melissa has been named from TD14.


The husband has informed me I'm not allowed in a kayak in the ocean this weekend...lol.


Finn say what?? Hello from your friend using your laptop?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
104. LakeWorthFinn
4:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
Begogp escribe con laptop de Finn

:)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
103. psualum95
4:11 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
1158 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...


AT 1156 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER NEW SMYRNA BEACH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING. GET TO SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A LIGHTNING STORM
THEN SEEK SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED VEHICLE AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
102. psualum95
3:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1144 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT


* AT 1141 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

*THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS PONCE INLET
WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.


THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT...ESPECIALLY THOSE UNDER SAIL...
SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE HARBOR IF POSSIBLE. MAKE SURE YOU AND YOUR CREW
ARE WEARING APPROVED FLOTATION DEVICES DURING THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.

A WATERSPOUT IS A TORNADO OVER WATER THAT CAN BE DANGEROUS AND EVEN
DEADLY. SMALL CRAFT CAN BE SWAMPED OR OVERTURNED BY A WATERSPOUT.
STAY AWAY FROM THEM AT ALL TIMES.

LAT...LON 2911 8070 2894 8091 2901 8098 2904 8098
2908 8102 2915 8103 2925 8083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 053DEG 17KT 2912 8085

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
101. SouthernLady
3:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 29926
100. psualum95
3:38 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

INLAND VOLUSIA-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...ORLANDO...SANFORD...
MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...DAYTONA BEACH...
TITUSVILLE

343 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGH WAVES WHICH MAY TIP OR SWAMP SMALL
CRAFT.

$$

MRV
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
99. psualum95
3:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2007
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
645 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CAUSE HIGH
SURF AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING...


SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-

645 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM
EDT TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM
EDT TUESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG
FETCH OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO TUESDAY. THE LONG
FETCH OF WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO OVER 12 FEET.

LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM COCOA BEACH
TO JUPITER INLET BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BUILD FURTHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE REPEATED POUNDING
OF LARGE CRASHING WAVES AND WAVE RUN UPS INTO DUNES AND SEA WALLS
THROUGH SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE OF
CONCERN. HIGH TIDES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 11AM AND 11 PM ALONG
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE POUNDING LARGE WAVES MAY
DAMAGE BEACH CROSSOVERS...VULNERABLE COASTAL STRUCTURES AND
PROPERTY VERY CLOSE TO THE DUNE LINE.

THE HIGH SURF WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO BEACH GOERS AND WILL CAUSE
MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

REMEMBER...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT SEA WATER SPILLAGE
OVER DUNE LINES AND SEA WALLS WILL OCCUR IF THE WEATHER DEVELOPS
AS EXPECTED. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTION IN CASE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
98. Skyepony
5:08 AM GMT on September 29, 2007
Gamma ~ can't wait to see what the she looks like in the morning.

Caribbean blob is a tropical wave with a trough over it. Fanning the top. Great upper diffluence, 0 lower convergance., not much vorticy at any level. Long way to being anything.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
97. seflagamma
10:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2007
Hi skye,

just stopping by to quickly see what your thoughts are... yes, Karen is going to be a fun one to track and watch! LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40926
96. Skyepony
10:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2007
. REMARKS: TASKING FOR LORENZO FOR 28/1800Z
CANCELED AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED ASHORE.
ALL TASKING ON KAREN CANCELED AS OF 27/2000Z.


Also Caribbean blob alert!!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
95. Skyepony
6:37 PM GMT on September 28, 2007
Ya'll don't quit wishing Karen away, yeah she was naked & had packed up headed north, chasing what was left of her convection. But now she's getting dressed & headed west again. She's covering her COC as I write this & looks better than she has in the last 24 hrs. (24 hr easy load WV loop)

Models are all over the place..Many still go with some sort of surface low possibly coming back on the US from the last trough. I'm still going with this as a most likely. 98L raced on up out of the picture & quickly fell apart. Some models are starting to pick up on the next front turning Karen out to sea. I think thouse are missing the huge ULL (refur to WV) that just slid into Karens favorable NW side, being Karen's bulldozer & provider of moisture. Looks like the high is building strong & beginning to slide off the states into the atlantic. The ULL looks like it may Dip south of it & help out Karen. That could help weaken the next front. The timing of this front is pretty much uncertain as well, shear seems to have abaited some for now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
94. Skyepony
2:57 PM GMT on September 28, 2007
Well that was a short lived invest~ it's already TD 14. By the windsat could be TS soon.

Karen took a hard shearing:)) Tracked slightly east of N, naked, just starting to fire some convection. Crazy

Lorenzo has made landfall
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
93. Rainman32
10:41 AM GMT on September 28, 2007
... And Now extra special Sat Pic O' The Day! WindSats of the just-declared 99L




Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
92. OGal
10:35 AM GMT on September 28, 2007
lolcats funny cat pictures

All these storms just make me dizzie. Am supposed to go to Sarasota on the 8th. Guess it depends on Karen. Help me wish it out to the Atlantic.

Hope your little one is no longer sick. How is Dragonfly doing?? Have you started roller bladding yet? Have a great Friday.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19223
91. Rainman32
10:27 AM GMT on September 28, 2007
Good Morning! well first WRF.. it now takes that cutoff low off past Bermudas rather than coming back at us. Just look at those pressure gradients, here come the winds/waves.

48 hrs

Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
90. Redhead
5:19 AM GMT on September 28, 2007

Christian MySpace Graphics

{{{Skye}}}
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
89. Skyepony
2:38 AM GMT on September 28, 2007
Recon isn't flying..

looks like a 2am fix on Lorenso & a NOAA plane should be out in Karen.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
88. whitewabit (Mod)
11:32 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
he''s getting stronger...will he make cat 2 ???
He doesn't have much time...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31767
87. Skyepony
10:49 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Storm CYCLONE: Observed by AF #306
Storm #13 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #13: 05
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 27, 2007 19:37:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 20 22 ' N 095 56 ' W (20.37 N 95.93 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of N/A Millibars: 1424 Meters (Normal: N/A Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 74 Knots (85.1 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 006 Nautical Miles (6.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 087
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 047 Knots (54.05 MPH) From 311
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 009 Nautical Miles (10.35 Miles) From Center At Bearing 224
Minimum Pressure: 999 Millibars (29.499 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 1443 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 23C (73.4F) / 1524 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 15C (59F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 7 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 52 KT SE Quadrant at 18:08:30 Z
2: Maximum Flight Level Temp 24 C, 88 / 7NM


That makes him a hurricane


Wab I ment to make it swirl spotting, like the movie "Train Spotting". Anyone know what movie I'm talking about??
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
86. whitewabit (Mod)
10:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
lol...Swirl Hunting...aren't there enough already???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31767
85. LakeWorthFinn
9:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
All Karens I know are fighters. This one looks like one too.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
84. Skyepony
8:32 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Thanks for posting:)

40 loop long range radar out of Melbourne

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
83. GoWVU
7:06 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Thanks Skypony for your thoughts
Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 380
82. Skyepony
7:04 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Gamma~ Swirl hunting is next on my agenda:) 98L may not be here long, surface low forms & it could race up this trough to hit of all places~ most likely Greenland. It's on the tail of this trough that will run in with the tropical wave formarly known as 97L. or the swirl of 98L stays on & wins out. This scenario has played out repeatedly this season in little variations. Gonna be subtropical in nature to begin with...more naked swirl talk. Severe weather isn't out of the question, but the monster 'cane scene of the 00Z seems over done.

GoWVU~ I prefer the more disorganized subtropical~ vortices circling vorticies of the 12Z run.

Go out on a limb & speculate this as a rain making system.

I think the next system the cmc will use to tell ecfl your all gonna die is~ Karen.

The NOGAPS & Ukmet build in the high too sending Karen in this general direction & have some version of a weak something of end of cold front & 97L trying to form & threaten FL to VA. Odds are atleast one of its vorticies will pass within 100miles of KSC. The GFS is the only one that has the front sweep Karen right out to sea. All the models allows Karen to live & thrive. The strength on the conservative nogaps is impressive..


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
81. seflagamma
6:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Hi Skye,
models doing all sorts of stuff huh? That 98 taht was over Keys other days is not off short by you? that system had so many different swirls (vortex) in the system it was hard to find the center. One time I saw 3 different swirls from this system.

now they say 97 has disappated; but the ghost of 97 could merge with 98? and do something off east coast????

Just wondering about all of this. will check back during afernoon break for your thoughts.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40926
80. GoWVU
5:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Skyepony

So you do not agree with the CMC run? I hope it is wrong as well living in SC I did not like the looks of that
Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 380
79. Skyepony
5:49 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Yeah Finn I'm thinking naked swirl at worst,too much shear.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
78. LakeWorthFinn
3:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
I had a feeling 97L was trouble and was glad to be wrong. The Canadian is after us, week after week lol
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
77. Skyepony
3:34 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
The cmc is feeling giddy this morning. gets crazy with 97L reminants
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
76. Skyepony
3:03 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
HH left Karen

THIS MORNING'S NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER EXPERIMENTAL MISSION
REVEALED AN SFMR MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 56 KT...A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 57 KT ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND ANOTHER PEAK WIND ABOUT 20 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE WIND PROFILE RESEMBLES LAST NIGHT'S MISSION WHICH ALSO
INDICATED AN UNUSUAL HORIZONTAL WIND PROFILE. BASED ON THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
75. Skyepony
1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
NOAA is flying a naked Karen. they are in the SE quadrent 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) surface winds..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
74. Skyepony
1:16 PM GMT on September 27, 2007
Good morning all:)

Got another invest swirl meandering by (98L), looking at radar there's one just east of Indian River county. The local is refuring to it as a trough axis.. we should see this develop into a surface low today then pull away. Should see less rain today best chance east coast. Those west of Orlando will most likely be dry.

ESPI is falling.

Yeah looks like we may be getting some 97L reminants in a few days, with waves. According to this it kinda lingers & builds. This graphic is in Meters. The local guys talk of it pulling dry air down on top of us.

There's some 25kt wind barbs there on the coast.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
73. weatherdude65
11:48 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
72. Rainman32
11:35 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Hmmm.. did some more looking at models this morning and see that several develop another feature Bahamas/FL in a few days, WRF is one of them.. remnant 97L or not?

72hrs

Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
71. Rainman32
11:10 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Sat Pic O' The Day! Poor Karen is losing it

Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
70. Rainman32
10:59 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Good Morning! Well this should be a good test of WRF.. right now it seems to be on track. and yes, this is totally different from yesterday's scenerio

12hrs - 8am EDT



24hrs - 8pm EDT *poofage*

Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
69. Raysfan70
10:39 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
free myspace comments


Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
68. aquak9
9:02 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
g'morning Skye. Watching those crazy models on 98L. We'll get heavy surf I think, if that...oh well, we'll see. Enjoy collards and thursday.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
67. Skyepony
3:40 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
NOAA has left Karen. USAF 301 is on the way to TD13 in the gulf.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
66. Skyepony
2:34 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Here's another vortex message the temp inside & outside the eye is less than before = weakening


Storm KAREN: Observed by NOAA #3
Storm #12 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #12: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 27, 2007 01:15 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 13 01 ' N 44 48 ' W (13.02 N 44.80 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3089 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 42 Knots (48.3 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 17 Nautical Miles (19.55 miles) From Center At Bearing 137
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 52 Knots (59.8 MPH) From 198
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 61 Nautical Miles (70.15 Miles) From Center At Bearing 140
Minimum Pressure: 997 Millibars (29.440 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 15C (59F) / 3061 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 16C (60.8F) / 3056 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 8C (46.4F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 68 KT NE Quadrant at 2350Z
2: Maximum SFMR WIND 42 KT SE QUAD 0111Z
3: Maximum SFMR WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 0117Z
4: SLP FROM DROPSONDE
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
65. Skyepony
2:30 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Not the dreaded stinking red tide. It makes some people really sick. Is it headache or stomach?

The vortex message on Karen didn't show up either .. 71mph surface wind!


Storm KAREN: Observed by NOAA #3
Storm #12 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #12: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 27, 2007 00:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 12 56 ' N 44 32 ' W (12.93 N 44.53 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3088 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 62 Knots (71.3 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 25 Nautical Miles (28.75 miles) From Center At Bearing 062
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 68 Knots (78.2 MPH) From 151
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 31 Nautical Miles (35.65 Miles) From Center At Bearing 053
Minimum Pressure: 998 Millibars (29.470 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 11C (51.8F) / 3059 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 15C (59F) / 3058 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 13C (55.4F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 68 KT NE Quadrant at 2350Z
2: Maximum SFMR WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 2351Z
3: SLP FROM DROPSONDE


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
64. aquak9
1:51 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Hi Skye. I tried and tried to post here, but there were problems...anyways...looks like we might have a red tide situation starting up here my ways. Nassau county (next to georgia) tested positive, and we (duval) are being tested now.

Some links on rainman's posts in my blog.

98L??
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
63. aquak9
1:51 AM GMT on September 27, 2007
Hi Skye. I tried and tried to post here, but there were problems...anyways...looks like we might have a red tide situation starting up here my ways. Nassau county (next to georgia) tested positive, and we (duval) are being tested now.

Some links on rainman's posts in my blog.

98L??
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26286
62. psualum95
8:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2007
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
INDIAN RIVER-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-

359 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER SEBASTIAN MOVING NORTHWEST...


AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
SEBASTIAN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL
TORNADOES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

$$

KELLY
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7751
61. Skyepony
6:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2007
Hey everyone:) Got one kid sick & one had vaccines, so ya know.

Nearly had everything updated & the back button got hit.. will do again later. Yeah Finn what happened there was they took Jerry off floater 1 & put Karen on it.

Loved the cloudsat.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38700
60. LakeWorthFinn
2:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2007
Rain, it's great when you discover that your love is not only beautiful but also intelligent.
A keeper... wink wink LOL!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392

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