Intense Hurricanes from Global Warming

By: Skyepony , 8:37 PM GMT on February 21, 2006

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Here are 2 studies I had ran across~ reported on the United States Enviromental Protection Agency's News & Events site
Study Finds Large Increase in Strong Hurricanes

The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased by 80 percent worldwide during the past 35 years, according to a study in the 16 September 2005 issue of Science (vol. 309, pp. 1844-1846). Hurricanes in these two highest storm categories, with winds of 135 miles per hour or greater, now account for roughly 35 percent of all hurricanes, up from around 20 percent in the 1970s.

The trend toward more-frequent strong hurricanes occurred during a period when sea-surface temperatures rose globally, with increases ranging from 0.5 to 1 degree Fahrenheit during the hurricane season. But the researchers found no global long-term trend in the overall number of hurricanes, and the total number of hurricanes per year has actually declined in most of the world since the 1990s, at a time when sea-surface temperatures have risen the most. Furthermore there was no increase in the intensity of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, just an increase in their number.

The relationship between sea-surface temperatures and hurricane behavior is complex, and the authors note that attributing the trends to global warming would require �a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes� in the climate system


Climate Change Expected to Lead to Stronger Hurricanes

A comprehensive new computer modeling study suggests that hurricanes will become more intense as the climate warms, with stronger winds and heavier rainfall. The study projects an average 6 percent increase in maximum hurricane winds by the year 2080, along with an 18 percent increase in the rate of precipitation within 60 miles (100 kilometers) of the storm�s core. The increase in intensity amounts to roughly a half step in the 5-category hurricane scale. These specific projections are based on the assumption that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will increase by 1 percent per year (compounded) over the next 80 years, which is higher than the current rate of about 0.6 to 0.7 percent per year.

The study�s authors do not expect the changes in hurricane intensity to be detectable �for decades to come,� but warn that there may be a gradually increasing risk of highly destructive category 5 storms over the course of this century.

The study�s basic findings are consistent across nine different climate models and a range of characterizations of physical processes in a hurricane model, bolstering the conclusions. Previous studies based on input from one climate model had also shown a tendency toward stronger hurricanes in warmer climates, but it was unclear how much of this effect was due to assumptions in the model.

The authors, Thomas R. Knutson of NOAA�s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, New Jersey) and Robert Tuleya of Old Dominion University (Norfolk, Virginia) did not explore whether climate change would affect the frequency of hurricanes. Past research on this question has been inconclusive, with conflicting results. Knutson and Tuleya�s findings are reported in the 15 September 2004 issue of the Journal of Climate (vol. 17, pp. 3477-3495).




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~ credit NWS,


oops~ can't easily get color key in here, so if your conserned about what shade is on your house ~ click here (the bright pink is red flag fire warning)

NOAA wants your comment by June 1, 2006 on a new percipition model product for US & PR. It was good in my opinion, added it to the favorites for next season. On the bottom there is a contact for your comments; good, bad & improvement ideas.

Weather Modification Bill There is now two versions. The second has been presented to senate~ contact your senators TODAY!

For or against these are the key state senators involved~ if you live in one of these states you have more affluence on the matter, but it never hurts to contact yours as they will have a vote:

California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming
Link to all state senators

My strongest reason for opposing this bill is the small committee that would be making weather modification decisions without the valuable input from many scientific fields as well as the public.

Update on IWIN termination~ could have a finally decision by March 1. If to be terminated~ no sooner than July 1.

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13. Skyepony
4:51 AM GMT on February 27, 2006
Yeah if ya take the drought map & compare it to the areas being seeded, it works out roughly like this~ 1/4 extreme, 1/2 severe & 1/4 moderate drought. I can't believe the state govt there is handing out tax money for this.

The weather wars link ~ well wow ~ I didn't realize there was a page to keep up with current attacks~lol~ The most redicules thing on that page (in my opinion) was~ Initially these anomalous events will be blamed on Mother Nature. But Mother Nature is here to nurture us, not destroy us. Mother Nature nurture us? Ha not after what we've done to her. Yeah I have a hard time buying Tesla's experiments, are functioning & are now in the hands of true evil masterminds & gave us Katrina.

I noticed that there was a contrail grid pic that was taken in the United Kingdom, so I guess their doing that else were as well, though I have seen other wise. These rise my curiosity since I see them over head.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
11. Skyepony
4:35 AM GMT on February 26, 2006
Agreed Stormchaser & thanks!

MichaelSTL~ Yeah this Weather Modification thing is out there... The bill is vague. I've read a little on it, there is some crazy stuff out there on it. There is a govt agency out there that deals with it now & reports to the NWS, but no web site. There are companys out there now that try their hand at this. Here's stuff in texas.

Some say the bill is because Cananda is getting pissed about contrails (aka chemtrails). Though 3 theorys exist about the chemtrails. Their putting water vapor up in hope to make rain. Their banking this will reflect more light back out to space, thus help prevent global warming trend(there are several well known climatologists that say this is making global warming worse). & well there's the Weather Wars~ that's a good condenced version, google it in or links at the bottom of that to blow your mind~ The chem trails are used there to spot the area's being "attacked" or verifing a homeland effort to make or dry up rain. There was a well respected dude that forcasted on some local tv station that flipped out & left his job in full persuit of the truth of weather wars last summer during hurricane season. Everything he knew pionted to major weather modification.

Other methods could include the absorbant stuff in diapers, aroisols seem popular, bombing storms & good ol cloud seeding.

Here's a govt report~ Owning the weather in 2025

Several "groups" of people out there think this bill is fast tracked to pass & be law. The way it is going right on through & lack of media coverage... wouldn't be suprised. At first i thought the bill was a joke, something to die in committee. What are the rest of my views on it? The bill is vague, lacks info, researchers & accountability. Weather Modification, Weather Wars & what could be going on? I don't know... but planes fly all over the rest of this world without chemtrails~ why not here?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
9. stormchaser77
7:42 AM GMT on February 25, 2006
Excellent Blog Topic Skyepony!!! Thank you for the Good
Research On The Weather Modification Bill as Well. Please
Help Get The Message Out That The Weather Mod Bill Is Bad
News Everyone. More Cat 5's To Come For Sure and My Own
Research shows nearly the Exact same findings Concerning
Expected Increase in Overall Atlantic Activity. Now is not
The Time To Build Your Dream House Along The Coast!!!
8. Skyepony
9:43 PM GMT on February 24, 2006
Fshhead~ Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods
~25 isn't the number of total or average hurricanes in the N atlantic for the past 15 years as per that description above that would be the total # of cat 4 & 5 storms in the past 15 years, per region.









image credits NOVA science now~ hotter oceans fiercer storms (highly recommend), from Peter Websters studies on the matter. Finally figured out how to post these from printable version. In that link there is also a good summary of Emanuels SST ~ more intense storms link.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
7. Fshhead
8:30 PM GMT on February 24, 2006
The numbers so speak for themselves (thanks for posting them), we've about doubled the number of cat 4 & 5's, though the number of hurricanes world wide hasn't increased.

Pony.
ahhhhh the graph DOES say storms ARE increasing in all ocean basins!!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
6. Snowfire
2:59 PM GMT on February 24, 2006
That article by Kerry Emanuel you cite is excellent--and not as difficult to understand as you imply. I think it gives the reader a good account of the subtlety of this topic, something all too rarely heard. One thing not much discussed, however, is the effect of warming on ocean circulation patterns. As this influences the location of warm surface water in a basin, it likewise cannot be ignored.
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 308
5. Skyepony
7:25 PM GMT on February 23, 2006
Thanks aquak~

Yeah Fshhead~ I think we are in total agreement here. The article you posted goes back & draws info from the 1st one I had posted~ Emanuel's work. The numbers so speak for themselves (thanks for posting them), we've about doubled the number of cat 4 & 5's, though the number of hurricanes world wide hasn't increased. Emanuel also explores the topic of the second article, that we will need the title Catagory 6 if the SST keep rising & many other topics concerning global warming & it's effects on hurricanes. I read the whole thing lastnight. Some is question & answers, the rest is essay. Warning ~ not an easy read. But if your head feels like a sponge & your ready to learn from a genious... Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activityby Kerry Emanuel
Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Here is the summary~

The theory of tropical cyclones, in its present state of development, yields some useful insights into the relationship between tropical cyclone activity and climate. There is a rigorous upper limit to the intensity that hurricanes can achieve, and this limit can be easily determined from known states of the atmosphere and ocean. Elementary considerations show that this limit increases with the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, but the magnitude of the increase that would result from the present injection of anthropogenic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is unknown, owing to large uncertainties about feedbacks in the climate system. Moreover, very few storms approach their limiting intensity, and the processes responsible for keeping storm intensities below their limiting value are poorly understood and not likely to be well simulated by present GCMs. The frequency with which tropical cyclones occur is a product of the prevalence of known necessary conditions for their formation and the frequency and strength of disturbances that have the potential of initiating tropical cyclones. Neither basic theory nor numerical climate simulation is well enough advanced to predict how tropical cyclone frequency might change with changing climate, and both give conflicting results on the change of tropical cyclone frequency on doubling atmospheric . There is no physical basis, however, for claims that the total area prone to tropical cyclogenesis would increase. The new field of paleotempestology entails the use of a variety of techniques for deducing the long-term history of hurricane activity from the geological record. Pushing the record of landfalling tropical cyclones well back into prehistory, perhaps even to the last ice age, may be the key to understanding from an empirical standpoint the relationship between tropical cyclone activity and climate. We should do what we can to encourage this endeavor.

A detailed examination of the historical record of hurricanes shows a pronounced upward trend in a measure of the total power generated by hurricane over the past 50 years. This trend, and other variations in the power dissipation index, are well correlated with trend and variability in tropical sea surface temperature, whose upward swing in the last 30 years appears to be unprecedented over the last several thousand years. This suggests that the global upward trend in tropical cyclone activity is a consequence of global warming. Although the upward trend in hurricane activity is statistically significant, the global data on which this is based is about 500 times larger than the database covering landfalling storms in the United States. This is latter is far too small to detect any reasonable long-term trend in hurricane activity. The large upward surge in hurricane damage in the U.S, is clearly owing to the confluence of rapidly increasing coastal population with a decadal time-scale upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity commencing in 1995, caused mostly or entirely by natural climate cycles operating in the North Atlantic region.

Further progress in confronting the important relationship between tropical cyclone activity and climate will be limited unless there are fundamental advances in understanding the basic physics of hurricanes. An important limitation to making such advances is social and political in nature: There are remarkably few scientists working on the problem (when compared to the numbers working on, say, earthquakes, a phenomenon of comparable social significance). This is a complex matter of history and of the professional tastes that guide scientists in their choice of research problems. There is a potential for accelerating progress by taking measures to attract more scientific interest to the problem.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
4. Fshhead
8:10 AM GMT on February 23, 2006
Table 1. Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 19751989 and 19902004 for the different ocean basins. Period

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Basin 19751989

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19902004

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number Percentage Number Percentage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

East Pacific Ocean 36 25 49 35
West Pacific Ocean 85 25 116 41
North Atlantic 16 20 25 25
Southwestern Pacific 10 12 22 28
North Indian 1 8 7 25
South Indian 23 18 50 34


http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
3. Fshhead
8:09 AM GMT on February 23, 2006
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
2. Fshhead
8:01 AM GMT on February 23, 2006
Link
Hears a good article saying hurricanes ARE increasing!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1. aquak9
4:41 PM GMT on February 22, 2006
skye, please check your previous blog.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25508

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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