Weather News of the World

By: Skyepony , 4:32 AM GMT on May 16, 2007

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Weather news~
Hurricane Simulator to Blow Real Houses Down

Corps: New doubts about N.O. pumps

Cops in Katrina shooting win legal round

Millions suffer as China storms kill at least 23

Gonu death toll to 70

Death toll in Australian storm rises to six

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There never was an easier major 'cane to prepare for than Jeanne. Mainly, since everything had been done for Frances & we were still too tired to have undone much, well that & we spent a little of the few weeks of the inbetween time in Ivan's cone of doom. Lesson learned~ there is certain outdoor matainance & landscaping you do every year. Some you may as well do at the beginning of 'cane season.

Cut & Clear...
~Cut down large dead limbs & trees.
~Cut down sickly trees (many of these will die a few days to a week before a storm anyways).
~Cut back limbs that would hit a structure in a high wind.
~Clear canals & ditches of excess brush & trash.
~This saves you so much time that right before a 'cane hits mow your lawn extra short this helps leaves & debri roll into you nieghbors' yard & shortens your clean up time.

Make a list
~Tour your yard & note the things that would need put away or tossed in the pool. I do a good barn & shed cleaning so there is room to stow the stuff too. Putting up those extra yard idems that aren't used so much in the heat of the summer is good to do as well.

Pick your plants & your fencing
~Anytime you put in new plants native will give you less mess after a storm & be more likely to survive, as well as not land on your house & what not. A few others do well too.
Good plants
~hibiscus, roses, plumbagos, bulganvilia, butterfly plants, roses, palmettos, azalea, jasmine, creeping fig, citrus, live oak, Magnolias.

Bad trees
~Ear trees, queen palms.

~always consider the salt tolerances for your area & consult with a native nursery guy.
~Consider how big a tree can get before you chose where to plant it.

For fences pick sturdy stuff that air flows through. Reinforce gates & besure with privacy fence gates to open them all the way back up against the fence & secure them with nails or screws before a major wind.

NWS Hurricane prepareness site for overall prepareness info
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

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Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive




From last ningts MLB NWS dicussion~
GREAT SHUTTLE LAUNCH!! ~ I got pics up from my yard.

SaturdaY ~ Upper Level Low Moves across south FL ~20% chance rain at best~ Lake County has best chance followed by those on the N end of the state. Scattered if any strong storms could be involed. Temps about the normal.

Sunday best chance of rain to the south end of the state. 20% central, drier north. 80's coast, 90's inland.

MOnday - Friday 20-30% chance of sea breeze showers. Inland & south with the best chances. Normal temps coastal, warmer than normal inland.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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No Invests...
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Updated June 7th~ The monthly is out. There take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in 1-3 months.

Regions 1&2 dropped this week, regions 3 & 3,4 stayed the same & region 4 rose.

The latest weekly SST departures are negative in the Ni�o 1+2 (-1.9oC) and Ni�o 3 (-0.6oC) regions, and remain near zero in the Ni�o 3.4 (0.0oC) and Ni�o 4 (+0.4oC) regions (Fig. 2).

We are still barely on the cool side of neutral

CPC summary say La Nina conditions possible in the next 1-3 months.

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Ni�o 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year. Most statistical models show ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through August 2007, while most dynamical models indicate La Ni�a will develop within the next three months. Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Ni�a by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Ni�a.

Barry brought enough rain to put FL in the average to above average rainfall for the last 30 days.

ESPI rose from -0.39 to -.04 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I expect to see the moderation trend continue for the short term with more cooling after.

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144. mermaidlaw
2:58 PM GMT on May 26, 2007

COOL MySpace Comments


{{{SKYE}}} Have a wonderful holiday weekend!!:)

I don't know what is worse, the red over my county for hurricane force winds, or the dark red here, for the DRY conditions!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8822
143. Skyepony
2:13 PM GMT on May 26, 2007
Lol~ LowerCal, me too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
142. LowerCal
4:27 PM PDT on May 25, 2007
Skye that is so cool! I guess I'm a diehard. Hey, I even looked at box 30! :^)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9443
141. Skyepony
11:04 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
You too TS2
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
140. Skyepony
10:59 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
I just hate to see them in such total disaggreance on the where. I'm inclinded to go with the gfdl for now but probibly only since I hadn't taken the time to look at steering current, shear & SST yet. Like the models it's easier to get a better handle once it's a little better formed than it is at the moment. Certainly interesting & worth noting, see which one was closest early on, could point to the one that will be the better indicater earlier on this season.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
139. Thunderstorm2
7:00 PM EDT on May 25, 2007
I'm away to put my feet up for the night...lol

Have a great night
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138. Thunderstorm2
6:55 PM EDT on May 25, 2007
woops.

Of course these Global models DO NOT accurately respresent tropical cyclones.

Thanks to STL for pointing that out in his blog.
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137. Skyepony
10:51 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
TS2 The 1st is the CMC. I was looking at that earlier today~ & the 12Zs are similiar in the models have no concenses on what this will do...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
136. Skyepony
10:49 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
For the die hards todays 7:27 pass, blue box 31.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
135. Thunderstorm2
6:50 PM EDT on May 25, 2007
The GFS (First Image) only brings 90E down to a 1000 hPa TD. On the other hand the GFDL (Second Image) brings it down to a 990 hPa TS

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
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134. Skyepony
10:45 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
Cloudsat fan club alert...


CF~ That was put out back in January. Do they do an update before season starts? Or are they that sure so far out?

Auburn, bummer about the garden. Can't irrigate? Atleast a few tomatos in pots?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
133. CycleForecasting
11:35 AM EDT on May 25, 2007
I saw the UCf data put out by mathematicians, but have you seen the forecast for Florida Texas and New England based on the Primary Forcing Mechanism for climate
check this link http://globalweatheroscillations.com/Hurricanes.html
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132. auburn (Mod)
7:52 AM CST on May 25, 2007
No rain here...just wind and sun...I am going to turn under my garden to try and save the top soil from blowing away...will try again next year
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131. Skyepony
1:49 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
130. Skyepony
12:35 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
Oh it poured more rain in the night:)) .18" total for the last 24hrs here. Hope others got lucky too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
129. Skyepony
12:30 PM GMT on May 25, 2007
Good morning all` i see we got green in the EPAC... That's a healthy looking blob. I can't get in the navy site.

25/0600 UTC 12.6N 108.2W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
128. Skyepony
3:02 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Hey ya'll~ The littlin tipped me to the rainbow, though I turned on to it was rainbow weather:)

Wore out? Laundry did that...lol. That's what beconed me off for the evening.

I've tried that snapshot thing on a pdf. Even got it to work once. It saves it to a clipboard that I can't find..lol. Export huh? I'll have to try to figure that out. Html & windows has been an adventure...I origanilly was taught DOS.

Aqua~ I'm less then 10 minutes from the ocean, by car, in traffic... Leave? Hhhhmmm, I was in town for Floyd. Thank goodness that wasn't a direct hit. If Andrew would have turned this way I had plans to run with the horses.

Still sprinkling:)

Oh yeah~ We have invest 90E
25/0000 UTC 12.1N 108.3W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

I'll catch ya'll tommarrow..

72.5

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
127. LowerCal
6:32 PM PDT on May 24, 2007
Nice rainbow spotting!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9443
126. aquak9
9:24 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
Poor skye...
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125. Rainman32
9:18 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
haha we wore Skye out, Aqua.. psst - let's sneak back into the fire blog, I can make it talk...
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
124. Rainman32
9:08 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
ok now this is simply insulting really: Precipitation 0.08in I love how the graph spikes at .3 in/hr though! sheesh Link
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
123. aquak9
9:04 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
Dang, Skye...for some reason I thought you were further inland. I really need to learn Florida better. At what point would you chose to stay, or leave?
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122. Rainman32
8:59 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
Hey just a thought on posting from the PDF Skye.. you could just do screen shots and crop it, probably wouldn't be any worse than the export from PDF.

And yes, I do find this entertaining though I certainly wouldn't bet the mortgage on it.. what scares me is that the insurance companies just may do that!
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
121. Gatorxgrrrl
1:00 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Nice rainbow pic:)
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120. Skyepony
12:47 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Aqua~ If you read through the pdf, they use where got struck most on years with similiar AMO & ENSO cycles. '04 was AMO the same but El Nino year.

There's other neat graphs & stuff in there if only I could post from a pdf..

Really I see it as entertainment. UCF is even kind of new at this forecasting months ahead, especially for the whole of hurricane prone areas. Their whole focus years ago was more gulf & oil disruptions, damages. They've run this model for a few years but this is the 1st year they released results publicly. Interesting to see the different results like compared to Gray's SST climatoligy method. It's gonna take the season to see who had it better.

I figure my chance of boarding up is probibly better than 1 in 5.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
119. Skyepony
12:33 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Oh~ off another article, like I did the one from WFTV (well rainman even helped clean that one up). Up top the PDF has the whole shabang straight from UCF it's just in pdf form. Monday they redesign their whole website, hope it's good. Been using them for years.

I think we will see La Nina conditions we are .2 from it now. With region 3 at -.8 & region 1,2 at -1.4. All that cool water will go west, now if it lasts long enough to be an offical La Nina I'm not sure on. But the conditions more than months on end seem to affect it more.

Ya'll still got a decent chance even if it's lower than usual. If this pattern doesn't change~ I'd think you'd have a better chance then me. Chances are it won't hold through summer though, been a windy late winter & spring here.

Rainbow pic up!

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
118. aquak9
8:31 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
Skye, a dumb question for ya. How/where do they get that data? just from previous years? i mean, we really haven't had hurricane force winds in Duval for many years--Jeanne and Francis only topped out at tropical storm force in this county. (second from the top on the atlantic coast)
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117. hurricane23
8:24 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
Just dont understand how you can have places all the way up north at a higher risk then the keys and south florida.I cant just dont agree with those maps.Also iam still not 100 persent sold on la nina developing this season.We could very well stay neutral.

Here is the complete article.
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116. Skyepony
12:21 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Interesting ~ Their big lesson from last year~ that ENSO transitional years are the harder to foresee. Seems this could be considered one of those as much as the last.

23~ Ya gotta tell me how to post picks from a pdf:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
115. Skyepony
12:10 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
23~ I see, your county's risk (not probibility) of hurricane force winds is much below normal (& the only county in FL at that). Perhaps it's the expected La Nina for the height. I think that way ups the risk for central to NFL hit, where nuetral & cool side of nuetral ups the risk for extreme SFL, like '05 had ya'll hopping, atleast according to climatoligy.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
114. hurricane23
8:14 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
Here you go skye...

fff
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113. psualum95
12:11 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Why do I think looking at the radar I am going to get missed again...
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 7805
112. Skyepony
12:10 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
Sounds like a great time. I think I'd like meeting up with Jer too. Been too long since I've been to the inlet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
111. Gatorxgrrrl
12:05 AM GMT on May 25, 2007
We will have to have a get together soon, maybe we can invite Sebastianjer too. That would be cool...meet at Captain Hirams, halfway for everyone. Well except Sebastian...lol
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110. Skyepony
11:55 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
23~ green where? I see ya in the orange...

The rainbow went double there a minute & brought me .10":) 1st measurable in a while... Too cool looking at the same rainbow. I'm about to upload the pic.

Glad to hear ya got some too OGal
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
109. hurricane23
7:46 PM EDT on May 24, 2007
South florida in green...That makes no sence as we should be at an elevated risk in any given season.
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108. Gatorxgrrrl
11:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Vero Beach on the Treasure Coast.
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107. OGal
11:33 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Gator where are you????
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
106. Gatorxgrrrl
11:29 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Hi Ogal - we just got a little tiny bit for about 4 minutes:)
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105. OGal
11:27 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Yep guys, we got some rain too. Just about .15 of an inch. Let's keep our hopes up for some more (:o)
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
104. Gatorxgrrrl
11:26 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Me too! We must be looking at the same one...southeast.
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103. Skyepony
11:12 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
95~ I like your thinking;)

Ogal~ I got a trace, hoping for more, Palm Bay looks to be getting lucky at the moment.

The quilt shop is still open, don't know if the mom went back but they have a new manager. The whole bit about this not being the 1st time was confermed. I can't really find out much more for several weeks. But when I can I will.

Rainbow spotter just spotted me a rainbow:) More showers are coming. Should have a rainbow pic up in a bit.

LowerCal~ been watching them nothing on Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page or navy yet...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
102. LowerCal
4:04 PM PDT on May 24, 2007
Skye, Ogal, hope those showers make it to you.

"Blobolicious" spiralled up all of a sudden. Kind of a dramatic change you can see on this loop if you run it sometime soon. Two "SSD Invests" in the EPAC now.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9443
101. OGal
9:45 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Oh Ya, love the looks of those showers. Keep comin little guys!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
100. OGal
9:44 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
***News Alert***
Skye, just heard on the news that Brenda was convicted of assaulting her mom and is now on her way to prison. So what is going on with the quilting shop. Have you heard anything about her little boy and her hubby???
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
99. psualum95
9:22 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
We have to think of something to give her while she is away...A little "surprise" LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 7805
98. Skyepony
8:56 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
mmm~ those showers look like they maybe building as the approach shore:))
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
97. Skyepony
8:50 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
I'm a sucker for a graphic with pretty colors:) Not a bad idea either, we were a bit panic stricken with Jeanne after what we just endured with Frances we almost forgot..

psualum95~ Oh good, I wasn't the only one:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 257 Comments: 40237
96. psualum95
8:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
I got the same one from Rays, I wonder if she was referring to something...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 7805
95. FloridaScuba
8:10 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
maybe we should post a blog and remind people that when they board up, to make sure to leave a way back in to the house. :)
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94. FloridaScuba
8:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
ok, entertainment. good. the map is pretty colors anyway.

i hope i don't have to board up. i live on the third floor and don't own a ladder.
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Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
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