Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.
By: Skyepony , 4:15 AM GMT on April 20, 2007
Developing low in the Western Atlantic to watch. It takes atleast 4 days for a cut off low to fully transition to tropical. Tough call if this one will be out there long enough to pull it off. It's coming west toward land & a front is coming east for it. Of course the models are still split about that & direction.
Notice the storm is already south of where the black XTRP line lays..
The impact map deserves a look at.
Some satalite shots on the floater.. Click to enlage & go right to the loop..
ECFL Fire Links & news reprise...
Like I need another section. Hopefully it will be short lived. For now most the fire links are on the right under my Links. I'll try to get the more local ones in this section over the next few days.
County Emergancy Management
Fires spread in Central Florida and Panhandle
Large wildfires merge in Bradford County; 1,000 evacuated
Weather only aggravates ever-growing wildfires
Wind and lightning are blamed for the new blazes in the Okefenokee.
NHC Tropical Disscusion
Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.
Click to make larger
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados
These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook
Watching for rain..
click map to go interactive
All local eyes on the low pressure, models are pointing it more toward NFL or GA, with some rain possible for ECFL & GA. ECFL Should stay a little cooler than we have been, winds should subside some for a day or 2 starting tommarrow & then may pick back up. Chance of rain is hanging around just like the low. NWS gives ECFL little chance for rain, mostly tommarrow & only Volusia. I give us a little better chance of showers, north most but don't count the rest of us out yet. It very well may never get warm enough core to it to be named an STS even though it's winds are that strong. Usually it takes a cut off low roughly 4 days to go fully tropical. It's a matter of how long it can tap the gulf stream before landfall. Of intrest is the Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page has it as 90L with an ST# of 2.5 which equates 35 KTS, 40 MPH & 1005 mb.
click maps to make bigger
Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.
Click to make maps bigger.
Tropical Deppression Probibility
98W 15kts 1006mb
EPAC blob was short lived...
Updated May 7st~ The CPC weekly is out. There take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in 2-3 months.
All the regions took a fall this week.
Anomilies are -.3 in regions 3 down .3, down .2 to 0 in region 3,4. -1.3 in region 1,2 down .2. And down .1 to +.1 in region 4. With 0 in the 3,4 region we are at true neutral.
The ESPI fell from -.66 to -1.17 for the last weeks for the last 30 days.
Rapid cooling for the near future is my forecast. Wouldn't be suprised to see us get into La Ni�a conditions. Don't know if it would last long enough to be offical.
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