El Nino Update & What Not

By: Skyepony , 4:52 AM GMT on March 13, 2007

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From my What Not forder. Sometimes you see my gfs confidence drop. Usually it's just a feeling or it hasn't been verifiying on something, this is fun to check the gut against.

FSU/NWS TLH COMET Experimental Forecast Confidence Graphics

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





Got .28" of rain yesterday:)

Monday less of a rain chance, atleast it isn't as fleating. Chances are best to the north. Highs in 70s-80s. Rain chances continue through the night.

Tuesday we hope for more rain, as a low may form in the west gulf, quickly passing the north end of the penensula tuesday night. Tues- Thursday the temps quickly rise.

Confidence is low for the end of the week so I'l stop there.

The word is the jellyfish have subsided.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Deppression Probibility


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Indian Ocean~ 95B 20kts 1004mb still pretty close to land

Southern Hemisphere

Jaya 20kts 1004mb ~ Turned SW, staying over water & avoiding Mozenbique for now.

97S~gone

99P~gone
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
Updated April 9th~ As of the morning the graphs are out but not the summary... I'll have to highlight the summary later today. ENSO mostly steadied this week, with a little bit of cooler water welling up on the east end.





Anomilies are -.6 in regions 3, .1 in region 3,4. -1.2 in region 1,2. And +.3 in region 4. Overall for the week it went down .3 in region 1,2 ~ Region 3 stayed the same ~ The central & western Pacific in regions 3,4 & 4 are falling off slower, 3,4 & 4 stayed the about the same. The cold water up wells in the East & then travels west.

much of the USA.


CPC Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Ni�a conditions is possible during the next 3 months. Same as last 2 weeks.


The # that counts is region 3&4, that principal (now) # .1, same as last week, now conditions are neutral.

The ESPI Stayed -.97 for the last 2 weeks for the last 30 days.

ENSO steadied this week as I'd expected. Next week I expect roughly the same.
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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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397. BABYGURL
6:26 PM GMT on April 09, 2007
Hope your Easter was great and hope everything is well with you!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 28 Comments: 1837
396. Skyepony
5:47 PM GMT on April 09, 2007
The 12Z gfs is gunho on the low..


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
395. Skyepony
2:23 PM GMT on April 09, 2007
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
394. Skyepony
2:21 PM GMT on April 09, 2007
Thanks everyone for all the wonderful Easter wishes. It was pretty busy & a lot of fun here. Hope everyone had a great weekend.

Southern Lady thanks for the soldier dedication. It really does apply to those in Afganistan. I have extended family scattered around the world away from their family. Unforchanatly many don't share the sentament of the video since they don't see where the fight in Iraq or being stationed anywhere other than Afganistan is defending our freedom. Many feel they have signed up to defend our country & our being used to defend big corperations interest instead.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
393. Skyepony
2:07 PM GMT on April 09, 2007
I loved yesterdays ponies:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
392. Lovethetropics
2:06 PM GMT on April 09, 2007

Good morning SkyePony!! Wake up, it's flipflop Monday!!
Have a warm and summery day!!
Did you see the ponies yesterday??


Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11302
391. Raysfan70
10:08 AM GMT on April 09, 2007
{{Skye}}



Have a Great WUBAday! :-)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
390. carolinagal
9:07 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Happy Easter
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 6791
389. SouthernLady
7:28 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Dedication to our soldiers.

Add to My Profile | More Videos


Very powerful video, especially the end! My son-in law found it. Today is his birthday. Hope you have a good day too!
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 115 Comments: 29926
388. AllyBama
4:48 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
christian glitter graphics myspace code christian images
Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com

Happy Easter!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
387. charlestonlady
4:10 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Happy Easter!
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 16683
386. Skyepony
4:01 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
& oh the candy:) I've had my share...the littlin a bellyache full.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
385. Skyepony
4:00 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Good Morning everyone. Hope everyone has a wonderful Easter & enjoys this beautiful day!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
384. charlesimages
3:59 PM GMT on April 08, 2007

COOL MySpace Comments
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
383. palmettobug53
2:47 PM GMT on April 08, 2007


Happy Easter! (((HUGS))) Have a wonderful day!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24967
382. cudasistah
2:47 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
381. Lovethetropics
1:48 PM GMT on April 08, 2007

Good morning SkyePony!! Wake up, it's Easter Sunday!!
Have a beautiful day surrounded by family and friends!!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11302
380. Patrap
1:28 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
4He Has risen..I am restored, Praise God7
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
378. hurricanecrab
12:23 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Skye & family ;o)




Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9235
377. oakland
10:18 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
{{Skye}}



Hope you have a beautiful day today!
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7526
376. Raysfan70
10:17 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
{{Skye and Family}}
MySpace Layouts
MySpace Graphic Codes
Rays,Wobbie and Boys
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
375. Barefootontherocks
6:16 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
374. AllyBama
4:26 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
Courtesy of SparkleTags.com
Courtesy of SparkleTags.com

Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
373. Thunderstorm2
8:02 PM GMT on April 07, 2007
Tropical Disturbance ex-Jaya 20 knots 1008 hPa

Joint Typhoon Warning Center


Tropical Disturbance Summary
=============================
The Area of covection previously located near 18.5S
40.1E is now located near 18.5S 40.1E, approximatly 375 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 27 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb

The Potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 hours remains FAIR
_______________________________________________

Storm Name- Invest 95B

Joint Typhoon Warning Center


Tropical Disturbance Summary
=============================
The Area of covection has presisted near 4.3N 77.2, approximatly 220 nm sothwest of Columbo, Sri Lanka.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb

The Potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 hours is upgraded to POOR
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
372. cudasistah
7:04 PM GMT on April 07, 2007
Happy Easter to you and yours Skye. 24 degrees cooler up here in the panhandle. Wish I had your temps!
371. Skyepony
6:44 PM GMT on April 07, 2007
Thanks everyone:) & Happy Easter to those that celebrate. Hope everyone is having a great weekend. I'm passing through about to hop off to another gathering. This weather is incredible. Grabbed a shawl for an early morning egg hide, haven't needed it since. Did a little laying on a lawn this afternoon, 75.0, little breeze from the SW, couldn't be any nicer.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
370. OGal
11:03 AM GMT on April 07, 2007
Happy Easter Skye and family. Hope you have lots of fun!
Easter Bunny
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
369. Raysfan70
11:01 AM GMT on April 07, 2007
{{Skye}}

COOL MySpace Comments
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
368. Redhead
4:04 AM GMT on April 07, 2007
Girly Myspace glitter, Girly girl comments & glitter graphics
Girly glitter comments from www.GirlyTags.com


Happy Easter, {{{Skye}}}!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
366. psualum95
7:56 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Currently have a temperature of 74 with a dewpoint of 29 giving a humidity of 19%, please be careful with flame...
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
365. Skyepony
6:41 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Good Afternoon all, had a few minutes for an update. Ment to put this in there somewhere.

MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WITH NW
WINDS REMAINING AT 10 MPH PRODUCING A BIT OF A WIND CHILL. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. APPEARS WE WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF ANY RECORD LOWS.

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT APR 7:
DAYTONA BEACH 39 1950
ORLANDO 41 1975
MELBOURNE 43 1975
VERO BEACH 43 1975


KELLY

As soon as the Jellyfish leave it's about to be too cold for the beach & like psualam eluded to~ careful not to catch the state on fire:)

Thanks for stopping in everyone.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
364. Raysfan70
11:20 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
{{Skye}}

COOL MySpace Comments
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
363. psualum95
5:41 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Only had .08 total here. Please don't let your guard down, relative humidities in inland locations will be down near 20% in inland locations tomorrow. With NW winds of 10-20mph it will not take long to dry tomorrow...Extremely High Fire Danger...Red Flag Warnings are in effect!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
362. AllyBama
4:00 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
Have a most wonderful and blessed Good Friday Skye!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
361. Skyepony
4:00 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Even better ~ Up to .16" & still raining:) Now if that streak of it will just train here & not slightly south.

psualum95~ There's more in the gulf, hope you see some.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
360. cyclonebuster
1:30 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Well I guess we will never know now since the Gag rule is out now! Censorship is a great thing just ask James Hansen!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
359. psualum95
1:20 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Finally made it to .01...Oh the pain of it all!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
358. weatherguy03
1:16 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Keep it going Skye, ya may make it to 0.10"!! Woohoo!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
357. Skyepony
1:15 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Lol, we need smellin salts over here...

Got another .02" here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
356. psualum95
12:32 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
It's raining *faint*
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
355. Skyepony
11:54 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
I got .04" so far. Looks like I may get another sprinkle. Dance on! RADAR IS LIGHTING UP:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
354. psualum95
11:22 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
It is raining 5 miles away %@$%#!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
353. psualum95
11:20 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Went to 83 here, just had a slug of rain move by to the south, you may get it if it holds together coming across 60/192. But look at the rain of the west coast....Pull on the rain rope!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
352. Thunderstorm2
6:53 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Tropical Depression Jaya (30 knots) is stil forecasted to make landfall again as a Tropical Cyclone
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
351. Skyepony
6:51 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Best of luck psualum95. I'd say Rand has the best chance of us all. The clouds have limited the daytime heating to 84 here, wind has picked up.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
350. psualum95
5:24 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Dance! DaNcE!! DANCE!!!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
938 am EDT Thursday Apr 5 2007


Discussion...the boundary is currently moving through the Tampa
Bay area with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect scattered
showers to develop later this afternoon/early evening as the
energy from the upper trough moves over the area and temperatures warm to
the middle 70s-lower 80s. Have made a couple of minor adjustments to
probability of precipitation and temperatures and will update to reflect the changes.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
349. Skyepony
3:15 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Happy Thursday Ally:)

I hear ya Rand~ so common for FL. Get that spring drought kicking then add dry lightnin. Hope we get a little rain with it. I think that's smoke down around Lake O on the radar right now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37330
348. AllyBama
2:59 PM GMT on April 05, 2007

CuteMyspaceCodes.com

Happy Thursday Skye!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
347. Randrewl
2:55 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Here's what we need Skye.....Lots of lightning in severe drought conditions.


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT HEATING...MOISTURE AND
SHEAR INTERACT WITH LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A FEW STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SO OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TREASURE COAST.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS MAY MOVE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THE ONGOING AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CONTINUING
LACK OF RAINFALL WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE TREASURE
COAST COUNTIES AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WHERE GROUND MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST ARID...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING
STORMS EXISTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS DRIER AIR LINGERS THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURGE THIS WEEKEND. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS
TO BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31545

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Local Weather

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Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 90.0 °F
Dew Point: 74.7 °F
Humidity: 61%
Wind: 5.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 10:38 AM EDT on July 23, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 70.5 °F
Dew Point: 68.4 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 10:38 AM EDT on July 23, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 67.0 °F
Dew Point: 67.0 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:42 AM EDT on July 23, 2014

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