Dolly Headed to Mexico

By: Skyepony , 3:07 PM GMT on September 02, 2014

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Link back to the September Almanac.


Tropical Storm Dolly 45 kt winds, dvorak still has it as a TD but improving.

Rainrates were incredible as she passed over the Yucatan. Here's the 12 hr totals.. Highest measured is over 11 inches.



05L Dolly



NAM, GFS & CMC have out handled the rest of the other models so far with Dolly..

The Official (OFCL) forecast appears to lay in about the middle of these..





One to watch is the new invest, 93E. This quickly has now become 14E NORBERT. Might become a hurricane that hopefully stays off of Baja.

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11. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:45 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Skyepony has created a new entry.
10. Skyepony
3:13 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
Six hour rainfall..the area of landfall has really taken some rain.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
9. Skyepony
12:29 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
It would be nice to see it move north.


Nice Terra shot a few hours ago.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
8. whitewabit (Mod)
12:21 AM GMT on September 03, 2014
the north side has filled in with some moisture so Tx should see some but would have been nice to see it move further north before making a landfall ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32351
7. Skyepony
11:05 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Dolly~ Click pic for loop.



BF~ Would enjoy pics of a buggy.. Could use to add a top for mine.

Glad the cats settled in.

Haven't drawn anything since the June 1st one..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
6. Barefootontherocks
9:33 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Hi Skye,
Hope you had a nice weekend.

And off-the-tropics-topic, I saw this really neat "doctor's buggy" for sale in a store here. Looks antique but usable. Pretty sure I have a picture I'll post when I find it if that's okay. I guess they also have some type of surrey with a cover on top for sale but I did not see it. Oh, also... just as you said they would, the Guido and Sammy cats have settled in well at the barn and are loving it!

Guess I will look in your previous blog to see if you made a three rabbit sketch this month. ;)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 158 Comments: 19336
5. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:31 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
Norbert was quick to develop as well for it was only a high percent moderate chance last night.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT (EP142014)
2:00 PM PDT September 2 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: NORBERT East Of Socorro Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Norbert (1004 hPa) located at 18.5N 106.5W or 130 NM west southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 19.4N 107.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 20.0N 108.5W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 21.1N 110.5W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 22.6N 112.7W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Satellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better organized during the day since the center is no longer partially exposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined. Intensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so the wind speed is kept at 35 kt. Except for moderate northeasterly shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the next couple of days. Intensity guidance is a bit higher than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a hurricane. The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the guidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one, between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

Norbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion of about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a west-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes under the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high weakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert on a more northwestward track. While the bulk of the guidance still shows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California peninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the guidance. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies north of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF forecast.

The new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of tropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a tropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part of the state.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46906
4. Skyepony
7:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
OR ~ It's a shame for TX that the north side of this storm has been battling dry air.

DOLLY on CIMSS..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 222 Comments: 39353
3. OrangeRoses
6:31 PM GMT on September 02, 2014


Dolly's COTC Path projected to cross TX in 120 hours. Will it dry out? I'll watch for it.
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 778
2. aquak9
5:13 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
take care of the paw-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26626
1. WeatherWise
3:10 PM GMT on September 02, 2014
I am going to be first again....did not know about Dolly!
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 59 Comments: 2391

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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