Tropics

By: Skyepony , 4:48 AM GMT on August 01, 2014

Share this Blog
7
+

Atlantic
99L


East Pacific
Central Pacific
West Pacific
90W


Indian Ocean
East Pacific
Arabian Sea
Southern Hemisphere

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

August gardeners in Florida are busy readying beds, gathering seeds & planting. Harvest from late spring & early summer's garden continues. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL any beans, Broccoli, cauliflower, collards, corn cucumbers, onions, southern peas (cow, black eyed), peppers any squash, Tomato, turnips & watermelon.

Central FL pole beans, broccoli, celery, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, onions, peppers, pumpkins, any squash, watermelon.

South FL Pole & Lima beans, cantaloupes, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, southern peas, peppers, pumpkins, tomatoes & watermelon.

20th-22nd Plant beets, onions, turnips, and other root crops. Plant seedbeds and flower gardens. Good day for transplanting.
23rd-27th A barren time. First two days best for killing weeds, briars, poison ivy, and other plant pests. Clear woodlots and fencerows.
28th-29th Good days for planting aboveground crops. Excellent for sowing grains, winter wheat, oats, and rye. Plant flowers.
30th-31st Plant peas, beans, tomatoes, peppers, and other aboveground crops in southern Florida, California, and Texas. Extra good for leafy vegetables. Plant seedbeds now.

Local Weather~



NHC Tropical Discussion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger

Local Hazards
Wind & Sea..Rip Current..Flood..Lightning..Severe Hail..Severe Winds..Tornadoes...cold...Fire




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Watching for rain & minimum temps..
click maps to go interactive







click maps to make bigger & animate
HAZARDS




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~

Visitor Map........
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Shoal Creek Falls (Skyepony)
Shoal Creek Falls
The Goats (Skyepony)
There was alot more. These were the cutest..
The Goats
Cascade to Bird Rock Falls (Skyepony)
Cascade to Bird Rock Falls

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 254 - 204

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

254. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:50 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
Skyepony has created a new entry.
253. GardenGrrl
9:50 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
White Rabbits, White Rabbits, White Rabbits, Happy September!
Member Since: March 25, 2007 Posts: 256 Comments: 9584
252. LakeWorthFinn
8:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
Three times the blogger below!!! May you be safe, healthy and happy this month :)
Gorgeous pics!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
251. whitewabit (Mod)
5:03 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
White Wabits, White Wabits, White Wabits .. let the harvest month of September share in its bounty !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31573
250. WeatherWise
3:32 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 42 Comments: 1391
249. aquak9
12:41 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
welcome home- will go back and see pics, etc later- '

glad ya'll had a safe trip
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
248. LakeWorthFinn
12:20 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
Quoting 244. whitewabit:

Thanks for the Birthday wishes !! 64 years old ! an lovin every minute of it !!

Me too, every minute... being 64 and retired is fantastic!!! LOL on the Marijuana Fest ;) Lotsa miles on the road!

{{{Skye}}} good to have you back!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
247. Skyepony
12:09 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
QW~ that would be nice. The weather was so nice too. Just lived it off grid more Bear Grylls meets homeless living out the back of a vehicle style.. I have some poison ivy.


Flash Flood in Sweden & Denmark on Sunday, 31 August, 2014 at 17:18 (05:18 PM) UTC.
Description
Heavy rains and flash floods have snarled road and rail traffic in Sweden and Denmark, with divers called to rescue people in submerged vehicles. Overnight rains which spread into Sunday forced the evacuation of residents from waterlogged homes in some areas. Buses in the Swedish city of Malmo came to halt after vehicles broke down on flooded roads. Divers and rescue workers helped passengers trapped in submerged cars and buses, in one case breaking the window of a bus and dragging people out on an extended ladder.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
246. QueensWreath
9:59 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
Love the new header pics Sky. Such a beautiful area up there. I wish I was healthy and wealthy enough to get a large piece of isolated land up there and live almost entirely off of it.Geoff Lawton kinda stuff.
Member Since: April 27, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 422
245. Skyepony
6:49 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
wabit~ Haha, you have fun tonight:)

What maintenance work I did was fun & really needed done. Cleaning strainers out of the creek was pretty much playing in the creek for a few hours. There was a few death hikes. Feel better for all the different exercise.

Those trips like you took are so much fun. I got out to some of those places you went a few decades ago.


ASCAT partial of 99L..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
244. whitewabit (Mod)
6:07 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
Thanks for the Birthday wishes !! 64 years old ! an lovin every minute of it !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31573
243. whitewabit (Mod)
6:06 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
Hope your vacation was enjoyable !! Always good to get away and relax and not work away all the time !!

We had a great time driving out to the west coast and back .. 6082 miles total from driveway to driveway !!

The Redwoods are truly a wonder to behold !! and Mt St Helens was so very interesting with the regrowth in the devastated areas and the 2 new lakes that were made .. and then Seattle and 2014 Marijuana Fest that was going on the week we were there !! Was very interesting !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31573
242. Skyepony
4:45 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
India got more flooding..

Flash Flood in India on Sunday, 31 August, 2014 at 04:45 (04:45 AM) UTC.
Description
Eight people have been killed and over a hundred houses damaged following heavy rain in north Karnataka districts over the last five days. In Gulbarga district, four people have died and 138 houses partially collapsed in the last five days, official sources said here on Saturday. The deceased have been identified as Mahadevappa of Kamala Nagar in Gulbarga city, Mahadev of Potgal village in Chincholi taluk, Siddarth of Okly village in Gulbarga taluk and Bhagyavanti of Belagumpa village in Chittapur taluk. District Minister Qamarul Islam gave a cheque of `1.50 lakh as compensation to Mahadevappa’s family on Friday. As many as 69 houses partially collapsed in Gulbarga taluk alone in the last three days, followed by 35 in Afzalpur taluk, 26 in Sedam taluk and four each in Chittapur and Jewargi taluks. The total loss is estimated at `52.44 crore. The Sharanabasaveshwara Lake bund in Gulbarga city has developed cracks. Due to the haphazard construction of open drains, several roads in the district have been inundated. Narasamma (48) and Pooja (15) of Yadgir district died when the wall of their house collapsed on Friday night. Paddy, cotton and horticulture crops worth lakhs of rupees were damaged. Three sheep and cattle were also killed in Kudlur and Tumkar villages. In all, 45 houses collapsed in Surpur taluk, six in Shahapur taluk and nine in Yadgir taluk. Several houses in low-lying areas were flooded. The district recorded 10 mm rainfall from Friday morning to Saturday morning. Two people, including a child, died and at least 30 houses collapsed in Raichur district. Twelve-year-old Sagar died when the ceiling of his house caved in at Makthal Pet on Saturday. Meanwhile, according to Indian Meteorological Department officials, very heavy to heavy rain would occur at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka and Ghat areas of South Interior Karnataka in the next 24 hours. Due to the well-marked low pressure area over West Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coasts that now lies over South Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood, the South-West monsoon has been vigorous over North Interior Karnataka and active over Coastal Karnataka, hence rainfall occurred at a few places over South Interior Karnataka as well. According to an official, Agumbe in Shimoga recorded very heavy rainfall with (15 cm) from past 24 hours since Friday.



The recent flooding closed this waterfall spa... Nice raging waterfall footage.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
241. Skyepony
4:35 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
Fresh ASCAT of the wave in the Central Atlantic. Very broad low..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
240. Skyepony
2:00 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
Hey everybody. Had fun in Pisgah Forest. Brought 10 pics to my WUphotos. The red house above has one of my favorite old barns attached. It's rained alot up there this summer, so much that only 2 cuttings of hay instead of 3 are expected this year. Let a neighbor tend a field so he'd have enough to get his goats through the winter. Farmers market was well stocked. Got some pasture fed pork, fresh trout & organic vegetables for less than what non would have cost here. It's time to get the gardens back in full grow.

Checked the Atlantic tropics. Other than a few tropical waves, not much happening.

Aqua~ Some of those were more than 3 ft long.

Finn~ Thanks for the sub update:P

Hades~ Thanks for keeping the tropics updated here:)

Wab~ HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!!

I probably slept & did nothing more on mine but your vacation looked more fun:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
239. LakeWorthFinn
4:22 AM GMT on August 31, 2014
Hi yalls, saw Subtropic yesterday... he's well and as handsome as ever :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:33 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST August 29 2014
====================================

A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts.

System may concentrate into a depression during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential For The Bay of Bengal
============================================
HIGH in the next 72 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
237. whitewabit (Mod)
4:55 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Skye .. hot muggy up here .. mid 80's humidity in the 80% and higher range .. chance of storms every afternoon the next few days before cooling off a little this weekend ..

back from vacation Tuesday evening .. been getting things back in order and relaxing .. Kyote doesn't have to go back to work till Tuesday since Monday is a holiday for her ..

Had a great time and great weather the whole time .. rained the night we left starting about 2 am for about 3 hours nothing real hard and traffic was light by that hour so didn't slow us down any .. and we had between a mist heavy fog and light rain the 3 days in Yellowstone national Park .. nothing solid just according to which side of the mountain you were on wither it was raining or not .. snowed the last night before we went through the park and headed home so made sights pretty in the morning but was melted off by 9-10 in the morning ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31573
236. aquak9
2:01 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
hi skye- hope all is going good- we are boring here, with cooler weather. Awoke this morning to a different sunshine, suddenly the air looks like autumn. Wish this coolth was dependable, and I'd plant.SOON - -

hey, how long did your long beans get? do they make ones in different sizes? Oshnblu said she had some that were over two feet long; I am wondering if they're a different strain than yours.

peace, etc-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
235. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:38 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST August 28 2014
=================================

A Low Pressure Area exists over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts. It would become more well marked during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
LOW within the next 72 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
234. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:37 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST August 28 2014
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 20.0N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 20 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
233. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:37 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 28 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (995 hPa) located at 24.4N 127.8W or 715 NM west southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 25.6N 129.8W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on the north side of the old central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest satellite classifications. Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters, it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and should become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt. This general motion is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern California. Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow. Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours, so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction. Beyond day 3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
232. LakeWorthFinn
1:42 AM GMT on August 28, 2014
98L

Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
231. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST August 27 2014
==================================

The low pressure area over west central & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts persists.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST August 27 2014
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
229. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 27 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of The Southern Tip Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (974 hPa) located at 21.7N 122.5W or 705 NM west of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
200 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 22.5N 124.4W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 23.8N 127.0W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 27.0N 130.9W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops have warmed outside of the inner core region. In addition, a dry slot is now evident to the north of the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications. The hurricane is currently over 25 C water and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue. Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around 22 C.

Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the northern Baja California. Beyond a few days, the shallow system is expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, mainly to account for the initial motion and position.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
228. WeatherWise
9:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
Thanks, Skye! Hope you had a great time in NC! I am right on the border of NC and VA. We are having pleasant days in the 80s and nice cool evenings and pleasant early am temps.

Have a great week!
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 42 Comments: 1391
227. Skyepony
8:35 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
Finn. Haha so they let you in...I could eat that now. Did eat the last of the farmers market goodies today. May get some food to cook up at camp. Back to mostly dried stuff.

Lot of fun in Balsam Grove yesterday. Got nice waterfall pics I'll share.


WW. 04L I'll say should miss the mainland..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
226. LakeWorthFinn
5:29 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
.......Finn cleaning Skye's house watering the garden and making gazpacho with a new recipe for Skyefamily to have when they get home... ;)

Here's a new 'quickie' gazpacho with simplified recipe (Aqua try it:)
3 lbs ripe tomatoes
2 medium green bell peppers
3 small cucumbers
2-3 garlic cloves
1/2 cup extra virgin olive oil
1/3 cup apple cider vinegar
1/3 baguette
2 cups of water
spoonful of pink Himalayan gourmet salt
Put all in a mixer and chill.

~~~~♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥~~~~
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
225. LakeWorthFinn
9:25 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
{{{Skye}}}, hope you are having fun and harvesting a lot :)

Cristóbal Colón (Columbus) was a seafarer, so fits that a storm with his name would be a fishie. Will be fun to watch.... UNTIL (if GFS is correct) IT HITS ISLAND. Keep on eye on him you fellow Nordic people!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
224. LakeWorthFinn
9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2014


Cristobal no threat to US
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:23 AM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast of Clarion Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (927 hPa) located at 16.6N 112.8W or 170 NM southwest of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 130 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.5N 114.2W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
24 HRS 18.9N 116.1W - 120 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 21.4N 120.3W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
72 HRS 23.9N 125.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Marie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the hurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern semicircle and become less symmetric. The eye has also become cloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled some in infrared imagery. A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an eyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at around 60 n mi radius at that time. The initial intensity is lowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from 0000 UTC.

The ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of intensity in the short term for which there is little to no predictability. Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over relatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. Even though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie will be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a rapid spin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now indicated on day 4. Considering the current reduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than the previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the SHIPS model output.

After wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier today, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/10. There have been no significant changes regarding the track forecast philosophy. Marie is expected to be steered on a west northwestward to northwestward course during the next few days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming aremnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down. The latest track forecast is little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result of Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
222. WeatherWise
10:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Hi Skye, Hope all is well with you. Just checking in to see what is going on with this new storm. My brother just called and mentioned it. What is going on? Right now, the map has it staying out in the ocean through Wednesday which will get it up around NC / VA area. Hope it stays out in the ocean. What are your predictions?
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 42 Comments: 1391
221. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
India meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST August 24 2014
=================================

The low pressure area over east central Arabian sea and adjoining areas of coastal Karnataka and Maharashtra persists.

A low pressure area is likely to form over west Central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around 28th
August
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
220. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Dangerous Monster confirmed. looks very close to Socorro Island too.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southwest Of Socorro Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (918 hPa) located at 16.0N 112.2W or 180 NM south southwest of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 140 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.6N 113.7W - 140 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 5)
24 HRS 17.9N 115.4W - 135 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 20.7N 119.4W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
72 HRS 23.0N 124.5W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
Marie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid area of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10 n mi wide eye. Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the initial intensity. This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010.

Unless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection surrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not likely. The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the next 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from persistence and not the environment itself. Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next day or so. Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in the short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a major hurricane through 48 hours. After that time, the hurricane will quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical by day 5. This scenario is not really different from the previous forecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48 hours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Trochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short term movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is 270/12 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and insists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even northwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours. That general trajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning north-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As in the previous forecast, no significant changes to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
219. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast Of Socorro Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (944 hPa) located at 16.1N 109.9W or 365 NM west southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
220 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.6N 111.5W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
24 HRS 17.3N 113.2W - 135 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 19.8N 116.7W - 120 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 22.4N 120.7W - 95 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Marie continues to rapidly intensify. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold cloud tops surround the center. The inner core convective pattern is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of T6.0 from SAB.

The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not easily forecast. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture and sea surface temperatures gradually lower. A more rapid weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar trend.

The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The track forecast is fairly straight forward. A west-northwest to northwest motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus.

A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow. These swells, which are likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
218. Skyepony
12:20 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Hey everyone. I'm in Mills River, NC. So much cooler. Smells so nice. Spent the day most in the creek. At Mills River Creamery. Such tasty ice cream..

Ylee- as far as I know he's fine. Half expected him to drop offline. I'm only checking on something and that storm....

Geos-5 has that coming close to ECFL..nnooooo.


Sorry for the broke mess here.....tried share that.


u=000&®ion_old=&dtg_old=&prod_old=&model_old=f p&level_old=&tau_old=&&loop=1">
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
217. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:53 AM GMT on August 23, 2014
MARIE is going to try becoming a monster

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 22 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (995 hPa) located at 13.7N 104.8W or 320 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 14.2N 106.3W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9N 108.3W - 95 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
48 HRS 16.3N 111.9W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 18.4N 115.2W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)

Additional Information
==================
Marie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. The cyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast, consisting of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands are also present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is well established, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with UW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used to set the initial intensity to 60 kt.

Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track toward the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the western end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast is little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in the guidance to the north this cycle.

The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day or two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment for strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea, indicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above the upper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Then again, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics such as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from realizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie over sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening, even though the shear should be relatively low. The intensity forecast late in the period remains above the nearly all the guidance but is closest to SHIPS model output.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL (EP122014)
8:00 PM PDT August 22 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: LOWELL West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Lowell (997 hPa) located at 22.9N 125.3W or 850 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 23.7N 126.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 24.6N 127.6W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 25.9N 129.8W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Convection associated with Lowell continues to decrease as the circulation moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the surviving convection now in a band over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low with the remaining convection dissipating in about 36 hours. However, since the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are 22-24 deg C, this could occur anytime between now and then.

The initial motion is 305/7. Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest while it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The track guidance between 48-120 hours has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory. The new forecast track is also nudged to the left, but lies a little to the right of the model consensus and the center of the guidance envelope.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 PM PDT August 22 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southeast of Hawaii (The Big Island)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Karina (988 hPa) located at 16.2N 134.9W or 1175 NM east of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.8N 134.2W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6N 132.9W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 18.7N 129.7W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 20.0N 128.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Karina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at nearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time. Its appearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small eye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery. A corresponding warm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 70 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA SATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at least 70 kt. The recent intensification trend is expected to be short-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48 hours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow weakening is forecast. After that, stronger shear and a drier environment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be 045/6. There is very little change to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while interacting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. After Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more toward the north. There is considerably more uncertainty in the forecast beyond 72 hours. Some models forecast that Karina will turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of Lowell. Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second Fujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion. The official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been slowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
216. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:41 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
Sure seems like a long time since there has not been a cyclone in this basin.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 AM PDT August 22 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (1002 hPa) located at 13.1N 102.5W or 285 NM south of Zihuatanej, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 13.6N 103.9W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 14.4N 105.9W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.9N 109.4W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
72 HRS 17.5N 113.0W - 100 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)

Additional Information
==================
Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally, water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming increasingly well defined. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW/CIMSS. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several days, continued strengthening seems inevitable. Marie should become a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category 3 status during the forecast period. This is suggested even by the global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen below 950 mb in a few days. The official wind speed forecast, which could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective intensity guidance.

The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt. The steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at this time. Over the next several days, Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will be building westward from northern Mexico. The dynamical track forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is very close to the model consensus. This is essentially an update of the previous NHC forecast.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 AM PDT August 22 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southeast of Hawaii (The Big Island)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Karina (994 hPa) located at 15.0N 135.6W or 1150 NM east of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.8N 135.1W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 16.6N 134.2W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 17.8N 131.3W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 19.0N 129.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images. An ADT objective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB support an intensity of 55 kt. However, based on the forming banding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible in the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The official intensity forecast follows the TVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected through the next couple of days. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend should commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest.

The current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical storm Lowell to the north. The deterministic models indicate that Lowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward to east-northeastward fashion through day 3. At days 4 and 5, a weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of Karina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The westward building ridge is expected to turn Karina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the end of the period. This scenario and the official forecast is based on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the previous advisory.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL (EP122014)
8:00 AM PDT August 22 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: LOWELL West of The Southern Tip Of Baja California Peninsula

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lowell (993 hPa) located at 22.1N 124.1W or 785 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 23.1N 125.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 24.3N 126.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 25.9N 129.1W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Deep convection continues to gradually decrease around the large ragged eye-like feature of Lowell. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during the forecast period, and the cyclone should become post-tropical by 48 hours, and a remnant low by 72 hours.

The initial motion is 315/09. Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 48 hours as a mid-level ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
215. Ylee
1:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2014
Hear anything from Wab lately? He hasn't been on his blog in over a week! :(
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 94 Comments: 15746
214. Skyepony
7:43 AM GMT on August 22, 2014
Hey Everyone~ Sorry, we're right in the middle of some spectacular swirl watching but I'm gonna run off & go do my gathering work & such. I'll try & check in now & again. Carry on:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
213. Skyepony
9:17 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Lowell..click pic for loop..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
212. Skyepony
7:45 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Click pic for loop. 96L.. There is a small swirl underneath moving off to the NW.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
211. Skyepony
7:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Lowest pressure first pass was 1008 estimated. They seem to be looking for a center..


Here's some highlights on how the models are doing so far with 96L.. bolded some of the better ones. AEMN is GFS ensemble mean..

Average Position Error (in nautical miles) Lowest numbers wins..


Model Name 0hr 12hr 24hr 36hr 48hr
AEMI 0 47.0 71.0 152.9 -
AEMN 29.0 58.6 58.0 66.7 98.8
AVNI 0 48.7 100.9 154.4 -
AVNO 44.2 57.7 99.4 123.5 112.0
BAMD - 93.0 192.4 287.1 354.7
BAMM - 77.9 154.9 235.9 285.2
BAMS - 65.8 104.4 164.2 180.7
CEMN 59.8 89.0 72.5 12.0 -
CLIP - 100.5 237.0 369.6 461.5
CLP5 - 100.0 227.1 367.2 477.1
CMC 42.3 111.3 248.4 250.9 -
DSHP 0 77.9 154.9 235.9 285.2
GFD2 0 70.4 115.8 - -
GFDI 0 51.6 114.4 181.5 -
GFDL 16.5 35.8 72.9 145.8 -
GFDN 19.8 46.1 84.2 - -
GFDT 42.1 56.8 89.1 159.8 -
HWRF 8.3 49.8 73.3 56.2 -
LBAR 0 101.5 228.5 356.2 430.6
LGEM 0 77.9 154.9 235.9 285.2
NGX 46.6 36.1 43.5 91.1 -
TVCN 0 47.0 102.8 183.7 -
UW42 0 59.2 114.5 - -
UW4I 0 54.7 94.2 186.2 -
UWN4 72.0 47.3 59.7 84.4 -
XTRP 0 107.5 263.6 445.4 -
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
210. Skyepony
4:35 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Recon is on the way to 96L flying~11,000'.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
209. Skyepony
4:01 PM GMT on August 21, 2014
Fresh ASCAT 96L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
208. Skyepony
11:52 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Today's GEOS-5 hasn't changed much other than intensity, little closer to FL. Way worse for the Bahamas. Still runs over PR & Hispaniola..Doesn't close this low off til after that..









Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
207. Skyepony
11:44 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Flood in India on Thursday, 21 August, 2014 at 06:52 (06:52 AM) UTC.
Description
Yet another live was claimed by the flood in Muzaffarpur district on Wednesday taking the death toll in the recent flood in Bihar to 25. The flood in the 14 districts of the state has inundated 803 villages. However, the official death toll is 16. Thankfully, no breach in any embankment was reported across the state on Wednesday, according to state water resources department (WRD) officials. Nalanda, Saharsa, Supaul, West Champaran, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Patna, Sheohar, Araria, Sheikhpura, Khagaria and Gopalganj districts are affected by the flood. Altogether 329 panchayats of 58 blocks are affected by the floods so far, special secretary, disaster management department, Aniruddha said. No increase was reported in the flood-affected population and land mass as over 14 lakh people have been affected and over 2 lakh hectares of agricultural land besides one lakh hectares of non-agricultural land are under the sway of the swollen rivers so far. Nalanda district is the worst affected with over 7.1 lakh persons affected. Crops worth over Rs 52.21 crore have been damaged by the floods in the 14 districts. Of over 1.16 lakh persons evacuated by the authorities, about 44,000 persons have been kept at the 115 state-run relief camps in the 14 districts besides. A senior WRD official told TOI that the Kosi, Gandak and the Ganga were showing a rising trend. Ganga is flowing above the danger level at Gandhi Ghat in Patna and Kahalgaon in Bhagalpur district.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
206. Skyepony
9:23 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Here is average model error every 12hrs in nm.. gfs ensemble mean is doing better now..
AEMN 25.3 32.3 54.1 50.1 58.8 50.3 29.8
BAMS - - 60.7 - 76.7 - 99.0
CEMN 59.8 98.7 89.0 93.6 97.0 57.7 -
GFDL 17.2 45.1 41.6 66.3 70.7 137.7
HWRF 8.3 42.7 52.3 54.3 76.5 71.0 -
LBAR 0 - 101.1 - 225.5 - 298.4
LGEM 0 - 74.2 - 142.3 - 190.3
NGX 45.3 - 29.4 - 18.6 - -
NGX2 0 - 24.2 - - - -
NGXI 0 - 54.5 - 123.7 - -
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
205. LakeWorthFinn
5:56 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
Don't like the present NHC red cone... yeah skye, turn North the warmwatersucker...! U got mail.
Good night yalls.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7354
204. Skyepony
3:58 AM GMT on August 21, 2014
LOWELL in the EPAC has been incredible looking today with this huge eye feature. TRMM got a great pass. Click on the pic for a large quicktime movie of the pass, over the eye.

Hope they get the new precipitation satellite data out soon. Saw a sample. It's impressive. Still having a hard time thinking about losing TRMM next year. It's one of my favorites.



WeatherWise~ Thanks! For the season forecasts I averaged the storms for the similiar years I picked. You should see if you haven't, Aqua reopened her blog with more garden. Your DC pics were a fun tour..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192

Viewing: 254 - 204

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Skyepony's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 72.3 °F
Dew Point: 72.0 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: - from the North
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 12:57 AM EDT on September 21, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 60.4 °F
Dew Point: 55.6 °F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:57 AM EDT on September 21, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 58.0 °F
Dew Point: 56.0 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:12 AM EDT on September 21, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations