1 Invest. & a Typhoon

By: Skyepony , 4:02 PM GMT on November 19, 2006

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But of course the topic of comments is open...

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Get a quick & easy note to congress to extend the solar insentives beyond 2007. I don't know about you but I hadn't got my solar water heater in yet. On average a solar water heater cuts your power bill by 1/4...The current insentive for water heater is $500. There are several other insentives offered, some very by state.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

If you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
When is it gonna rain???...


Check out the local in it's entirety...new feature, anything shortened or of weather terminoligy you can click on for definition!

Today should be a little warmer than yesterday...inland as high as 80's N coastal regions cooler due to the SST in the 60's. Occational coastal showers will persist today as like the last 2 days but should end tommarrow...Recieved a trace here so far..just enough to remember what rain smells like.

As for the up coming front that is sweeping the country...Rain chances begin friday for central FL, N FL has a better chance of rain then here. It's not expected at this point to be severe through FL, but to stall & wash out over central & south FL.


Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS





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Atlantic
95L is gone!

The Indian Ocean
93A is gone!
92A is Gone!

West Pacific~ no name 24W is now Internationally named Durian, Philippine's named Reming (thanks HadesGodWyvern) As I eluded to in Master's blog before the models came out, we may see some rapid intensification with this one...Forecasted cone of doom has shifted slightly to the south, closer to the capitol. 45kts, 991mb~
27/0233 UTC 10.2N 139.1E T2.5/3.0 DURIAN -- West Pacific Ocean



Southern Hemisphere~
Yani is gone!
93S...nearly gone 15kts & 1006mb
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Blast from the past - 1635 hurricane ... It hit the NE shortly after Thanksgiving Day. Some documents were recently passed on to NOAA for arciving.

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58. Skyepony
5:48 PM GMT on November 27, 2006
Redhead & Finn..Ya'll have a great Monday too! I have an exciting apointment this afternoon, little nervous, so thanks for the happy thoughts.

May have been a little quick to call the beginning of the demis of 93S...It's making a come back at 25kts & 1002mb.

Durian is 50kts & 987mb..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
57. LakeWorthFinn
2:09 PM GMT on November 27, 2006
(((Skye)))! Have a great day!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7567
56. Redhead
7:00 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
Have a great Monday!

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
55. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:36 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
hmm that is weird this is the first time the sustained winds was 15 to 20 knots for this storm and the NRL had it at 25 knots at one time
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 49856
54. Skyepony
4:16 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
It dropped 5kts today to 15kts & looks less organized from 12 hrs ago.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
53. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:12 AM GMT on November 27, 2006
nearly gone.. The RSMC La Reunion has 93S becoming a tropical depression before landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 49856
52. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:37 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
Reming will be the Philippines name.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 49856
51. LowerCal
8:33 PM GMT on November 26, 2006
For Europe the areas forecast to receive the most impact have shifted north.

Cork, Ireland is currently reporting

Wind: 37 mph / 59 km/h from the SSE
Wind Gust: 55 mph / 89 km/h

and their Thursday forecast is

Rain. High: 57 F. / 14 C. Wind South 46 mph. / 75 km/h. Chance of precipitation 100%.

Skye, United Kingdom (the actual name of an island in NW Scotland) hasn't reported for 5 hrs

but their Thursday forecast is

Rain. High: 50 F. / 10 C. Wind South 53 mph. / 86 km/h. Chance of precipitation 80%.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 9690
50. Skyepony
4:55 AM GMT on November 26, 2006
Hey Gamma~ The Philippines might be the most likely ones, again, to bear the brunt of the recent flare up in activity.

Randrewl~ That's why I've been calling it a blob:) That trough looks like it's gonna grab it or enhance it.

Most interesting quickscat of the evening...Heads up Western Europe!!

That thing has organized greatly since this mornings pass. I'll have to look for a sat pic of that.

Quickscat missed the other 2 areas of intrest in the ATL.

charlestonlady~ I think your right about the addict in the makeing..lol.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
47. charlestonlady
10:01 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Hey skye! black friday shopping is the best. I am glad you got to go this year. I see an addict in the making. Strategy is everything when going. Door buster sales are really good!
Free gifts even better. One of my co workers bought a tie for her hubby at express and the free gift was a hat. Well they were out of the hats so his free gift was an evening bag. lol. we had great fun with that one! Have a wonderful saturday!
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 16683
46. seflagamma
9:28 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
I hope to goodness all those invests and depressions just go away and leave everyone alone!!!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41020
44. seflagamma
3:58 PM GMT on November 25, 2006
Skye,

Good Saturday morning to you!!!!!

Have a little time to blog this morning and hoping to make it to a few of my friend's blogs as I can before the busy stuff starts!

Have a wonderful day!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41020
43. Skyepony
7:59 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
& Yeah! Someone saw the snow! Congrates Atmos..

Thanks again for all the wonderful wishes, turkey day was grand. Have alot of family around so busy & there was that turkey coma. Feel bad I didn't get around to all those I'd a liked to to wish them the same. Hope everyone's was wonderful!

Update was a bit late due to Black Friday...had never done it before, but had to pick up a few things. It was exilerating & I don't even like shopping:) The parking challenges, the deals, the chaos..next year I'm gonna have to plan this out & do it right.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
42. Skyepony
7:55 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
I've been watching this one OGal, models been a bit fickle...looking more like FRI now. North of FL~ expecting a good chance of trouble for them even this far out. Fl~ well a little to early to tell. this is the kind of set up in an El Nino year that can cause problems...especially once the winter rainy season has begun, but today it hasn't. In coming clouds were being broken up as soon as they hit the coast this morning. Holding together better now. If we can find some humuidty & get a bit of unstableness up there, if it has a decent tail, could be trouble. Lot o' factors even the local is unsure. Check back later (magic 8 ball concures).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
41. OGal
7:42 PM GMT on November 24, 2006
Ok weather Momma, what do you think about the possibility of a major storm next weekend?? I read KSW blog and he is concerned. Give me your imput.

Hope you had a great TDay!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
40. DannDe
7:25 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Hi Sky, Happy Thanksgiving!! D
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 40 Comments: 1180
39. atmosweather
7:19 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Happy Thanksgiving Skyepony!!!

And, yes, I SAW SNOW IN ECFL!!!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
38. Levi32
6:46 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Have a wonderful peaceful Thanksgiving Sky!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
37. Alec
6:45 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Have a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving=)
36. whitewabit (Mod)
6:25 PM GMT on November 23, 2006

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 373 Comments: 34568
35. Skyepony
3:28 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
I want to thank everyone for leaving the wonderful Thanksgiving wishes...


Hope each of you has juicy, yummy food & the fellowship of great family & friends today!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
34. nightbloomingjasmine
2:46 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours



Jas
33. palmettobug53
2:45 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 245 Comments: 25971
32. buckeyefan1
2:44 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
HAPPY THANKSGIVING SKYE!!!! Wishing you and yours the BEST!!!! :-D
31. code1
12:59 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
30. ricderr
12:59 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
d
eat me?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 685 Comments: 23418
29. Lovethetropics
12:41 PM GMT on November 23, 2006
Good*morning*SkyePony!!!**
Wake*up, *it's*Thursday!!!**
Have*a*wonderful*
Thanksgiving*day!!!**
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11354
27. LowerCal
11:33 PM GMT on November 22, 2006
Pages 4 & 5 of the ENSO weekly update cleared up my El Nino questions.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 9690
25. LakeWorthFinn
10:18 PM GMT on November 22, 2006
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving Skye, lots of luv flying your way!
Glad Cheers got the blanket. Did Skye leave any fish in the bowl? LMBO
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7567
24. subtropic
3:20 PM GMT on November 22, 2006
Happy Thanksgiving skye !!!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
23. oneshotww
3:19 PM GMT on November 22, 2006
Happy Turkey Day to ya!
Member Since: October 12, 2003 Posts: 322 Comments: 1807
22. Skyepony
2:22 PM GMT on November 22, 2006
Thanks Redhead..wanted to extend some good chef thoughts out there to all of us spending a good part of our day cooking...I got a 24lber to tackle shortly.

The snow missed me, watching it on radar it skimmed N Brevard, Volusia got it as well as a little of Flagler as it was leaving FL.

Aquak~Going through my pics I think I found what killed the camera..I was taking pics in a lot of rain that last trip, quility went down followed by death...Those KSC ones (forgot to anounce new pics up!) were taken with the old 35mm...quality not so good.

Everyone celebrating have a great & yummy Thanksgiving & remember to be thankful!

I'll be by after Ogal:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
21. OGal
10:26 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
Skye, according to our paper we got snow over here. I am sure you guys did too. Hope your Thanksgiving is filled with lots of love and tons of good food! Meet at my blog after the big day!!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
20. aquak9
10:03 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
Did you get snow??

How's your camera??

Was wondering if you got any fluffy-flakies last night...enjoy your wednesday!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27576
19. Redhead
6:33 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
Happy Thanksgiving, Skye!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
18. code1
4:57 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
That will work. It's what we wanted anyway. See ya soonest!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
17. Skyepony
4:43 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
You'll have to look on the radar.

Look forward to it & yes a fire may be in order:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
16. code1
4:41 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
Is it snowing in Ocala? I'm not going out to see! You and Doc need to make a trip up north. brrrrrrrr See ya next weekend somewhere. LOL We really may need that fire!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
15. Skyepony
4:38 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
Local windchills for the night.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
14. Skyepony
4:33 AM GMT on November 22, 2006
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW FLAKES REPORTED THIS EVENING NEAR AND NORTH
OF ORLANDO...

.PREV UPDATE...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
MIXED WITH SNOW FLAKES/FLURRIES ACROSS VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS NE/E
CENTRAL FL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE PRECIP FALLING ZONE MAY
SUPPORT A CONTINUED MIX OF PRECIP. LIGHT PRECIP MIXED WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/ FLAKES WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS TWD NRN BREVARD
AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WILL BE MAKING QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES INCLUDE
FLURRIES MENTION...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO STICK WITH SFC
LYR TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NW WINDS BEING BROUGHT TO
SURFACE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP AREA.

&&
VOLKMER/PENDERGRAST
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
13. LowerCal
10:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2006
I looked at the 12Z models re. Western Europe. They look unanimously bad ... but not as bad as they were looking.

I looked at the WU forecasts for the most affected areas and didn't see any winds over 44 mph through Sunday.
Cork, Ireland
Plymouth, United Kingdom
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Brest, France
La Coruna, Spain

I'm curious about that ENSO map. I do see that the E Pacific anomalies have gone back up again. However I also see that the anomalies near 180 continue to increase. Is that a signal that the El Nino is getting ready to turn around?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 9690
12. Skyepony
5:05 PM GMT on November 21, 2006
I never did the monday ENSO update...
El nino strenthend this past week


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
11. Skyepony
4:40 PM GMT on November 21, 2006
Hey everyone:) Never made it back yesterday..knee deep in digital scrapbooking.

Ogal~ I'll have to grill my source...They just had a meeting last Fri. & I have to get back to your blog, been excercising well.

Stormydee..musy have been the one in south Volusia...S of new symerna & west of 95, east of the power lines. Looked like it was in the boonies, no news I could find. Checking that link I left..It's still burning, it's a little south of where it was yesterday.

Thanks HIEXPRESS!

ricderr~ you may trash my vertail furniture anytime, especially when perfecting the circus arts..lol.

LowerCal Thanks for the update...still need to look at models...I wonder how the Western Europe storm is shaping up.. It's tough to get a double secret invest past me:)..a triple is another story.

Ya'll have a great one, got a lot of scapbooking to go..also looking for bike lights that are powered by battery that are charged by your bike..something cheap..if anyone has ideas.



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 292 Comments: 41042
10. LowerCal
1:06 AM GMT on November 21, 2006
Skye, thanks for the info on the "double secret" invest 98E. When I checked the ukm, nogaps, and gfs last night they had all lost their enthusiasm about 97E and (the now) 98E.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 9690
9. stormydee
6:06 PM GMT on November 20, 2006
Wow! It is amazing how far ash will fly when its windy out! I think the fire is in the Nothern most part of Brevard, or southern Volusia. I didn't have long enough lunch to drive that far. I went to a park by I-95 here in Titusville and it was still quite a ways away! Yet, there was ash falling on my car. It didn't look too bad....yet! I hope they get it under control!

Well, gotta get my work done. Have a great day!

:-)

Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
8. ricderr
5:31 PM GMT on November 20, 2006
running amok.........doing cartwheels..and if you ever seen me do a cartwheel..well..now you know why the couch is knocked over
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 685 Comments: 23418

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About Skyepony

Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Farmer, I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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Elevation: 29 ft
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