01L

By: Skyepony , 1:45 PM GMT on June 01, 2014

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Atlantic
01L


East Pacific
04E DOUGLAS


05E ELIDA


West Pacific
90W


91W


Indian Ocean

East Pacific

Arabian Sea

Southern Hemisphere

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A site to check out storms.
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

June gardening in Florida is harvesting, keeping the weeds down & prepping it for summer. For some that maybe setting okra, watermelon, black eyed peas, some household gourds, broomcorm in the ground for a summer garden..others it's time to throw down a cover crop of black eyed peas, marigolds or sweet potatoes.. wish them luck & go on vacation.

North FL Lima Beans, southern peas (cow, black eyed), okra, eggplant, sweet potatoes.

Central FL okra, southern peas & sweet potatoes.

South FL Sweet potatoes.


May 2014
24th-26th Seeds planted now tend to rot in the ground. Best days for killing plant pests.
27th-28th Plant tomatoes, beans, peppers, corn, cotton, and other aboveground crops on these most fruitful days. Plant seedbeds and flower gardens.
29th-30th Poor period for planting. Clear fencerows, and clear land.

Local Weather~
Warm, maybe rain.


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Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
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Watching for rain & minimum temps..
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91L (Skyepony)
Clouds from 91L.
91L

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285. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:30 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Skyepony has created a new entry.
284. whitewabit (Mod)
6:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
So did you get out of duty .. tell them you had a concussion and are not thinking straight .. that should do the trick ..

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 17:56Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 80.4W
Location: 43 miles (69 km) to the NNE (19°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 760 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 50° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 19°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 794 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 50° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 28 knots (~ 32.2mph)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31410
282. LakeWorthFinn
5:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
3 x white wabbits to everybody!

You're free from jury duty, that's great - LOL on the dressing code... Arthur's feeder bands are arriving from North, moderate wind, raining on and off.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7320
281. NEwxguy
5:21 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Congrats, good for that guy,he saved you a lot of time and saved the taxpayers a lot of money.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
280. Skyepony
5:17 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Wow..It;s looking impressive. Gulf stream fed...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
279. Skyepony
5:17 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Recon is in the air over the FL panhandle on the way to Arthur.


Quoting 276. HadesGodWyvern:

happy first full month of summer!


Oh it is.. I just got set free from a three week trial!!!!

The guy pled.


Quoting 274. NEwxguy:



Skye, they;ve seen every possible excuse over the years. Playing sick will never work.


Dressing some what inappropriately didn't do me any favors either..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
278. Louisclocks
4:21 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Author is here.
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
277. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:58 PM GMT on July 01, 2014


GFS model for new typhoon.

950MB in sea south of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
276. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:53 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
happy first full month of summer!
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
275. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:52 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP052014)
8:00 AM PDT July 1 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: ELIDA South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Elida (1004 hPa) located at 17.4N 104.3W or 95 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.3N 104.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.1N 104.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.0N 104.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.0N 106.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Strong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on the northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern has lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers suggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast to continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no significant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could re-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which shows no important change in strength in 5 days.

Elida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely moved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend.

Given the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has adjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida continues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical storm warning would likely be discontinued later today.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is now in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo, Mexico

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
8:00 AM PDT July 1 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Northwest Of Clarion Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1002 hPa) located at 19.1N 115.9W or 405 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 19.4N 116.2W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.7N 116.6W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.1N 117.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS: 20.5N 118.5W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
===================
Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the Douglas' cloud pattern has not changed much this morning, except for some cooling of cloud top temperatures northwest of the center. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates and an ADT CI value of 2.2 are used to lower the initial wind speed estimate to 35 kt on this advisory. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low during the next few days, Douglas will be traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone, and remnant low status is indicated by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced slightly relative to the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 310/06. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening, which should result in a further reduction of forward speed on a west-northwesterly heading during the next couple of days. Once Douglas becomes a shallower vortex in 2-3 days, a bend of the track toward the west is expected, followed by some increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, nudged slightly to the north in the direction of the multi-model consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
274. NEwxguy
3:35 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Quoting 269. Skyepony:

That is the link:-) Thanks!


The girl sitting next to me was playing (I hope) sick like that and she already got sent to a court room.


Skye, they;ve seen every possible excuse over the years. Playing sick will never work.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
273. Bogon
3:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Nice blob this morning between you and Grand Bahama. The naked swirl is getting dressed.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3698
272. Skyepony
2:49 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Looks like they just got started with it. No mapping or new toys yet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
270. Skyepony
2:37 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Tropical Atlantic has their 2015 version available for testing.




Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
269. Skyepony
2:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
That is the link:-) Thanks!


The girl sitting next to me was playing (I hope) sick like that and she already got sent to a court room.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
268. aquak9
2:12 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
You could be stuck in jury duty with me...I'm under a Tropical Storm Watch..no excuse i can come up with is good enough for these people.


Start coughing. Sniffle. Snork. Cough some more. Tell'm your kids just got over strep throat, one was so sick he was throwing up green phlegm. Tell'm -
gee, you hope you're not catching it. All that coughing makes you throw up, too.

Then put the back of your hand to your forehead. Sigh deeply...then cough some more.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25940
266. Skyepony
1:40 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
91W is new. Managed to add that. Could use a link to tropical Atlantic Recon if anyone has it..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
265. Skyepony
1:34 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Quoting 262. whitewabit:

heavy rain up here .. glad the high winds didn't pan out though !!


Good to see the worst north of you..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
264. Skyepony
1:33 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Yes Louis it could be worse.. You could be stuck in jury duty with me...I'm under a Tropical Storm Watch..no excuse i can come up with is good enough for these people.

Sorry, yeah new blog delayed.

Did see a beautiful double rainbow and though a little painful..the sunrise.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
263. Louisclocks
12:35 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Wow !!! Sky's last post was at 11:51 PM. If she had waited nine more minutes she could of started a new month and I wouldn't be waiting here hour after hour waiting to be "First" !!! But alas I must depart and leave the honors to some other noble weather watcher.
Life could be worst I guess.
The weather in SW Fl. Is calm and quiet. Im hoping a TS off the cost will dry things out a bit?
Peace
Louis
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
262. whitewabit (Mod)
4:07 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
heavy rain up here .. glad the high winds didn't pan out though !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31410
261. Skyepony
3:51 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
JUPITER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...COASTAL VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN BREVARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
260. Skyepony
3:46 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Hades~ Globally we looked to be waking up tropically with the two EPAC storms getting named & a few new invests. The 90W one is half dropped & all our storms look sort of anemic

BLU~ It is good to see you:) Excellent cloud watching tonight. Beautiful flying from NNE to the South like that.



Volusia, Brevard & Indian River just got put under a tropical storm watch...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
259. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:11 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Douglas is hanging around Clarion Island tonight.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
8:00 PM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Near Clarion Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1000 hPa) located at 18.4N 114.9W or 390 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 19.0N 115.5W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.4N 116.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.7N 116.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.0N 118.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

Additional Information
===================
Tropical Storm Douglas has developed some well-defined inner core banding features this evening, as seen in the GOES-West geostationary imagery. Correspondingly, the intensity estimates have inched upward: a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications averages 40 kt, the Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 43 kt, and the CIMSS AMSU technique suggests 48 kt. The initial intensity is thus set at 40 kt, but this could be slightly low.

It appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as the sea surface temperatures and convective instability start dropping steadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear. The intensity guidance is tightly clustered and suggests gradual weakening after 24 h until loss of deep convection in about 3-4 days causes the system to become a remnant low. The intensity forecast is slightly above the previous advisory, mainly due to the short-term intensity trend.

Douglas is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The system is primarily being steered by a broad ridge to its north, which should weaken within the next day or so as a short-wave trough approaches from the west. When this occurs, the steering flow becomes almost negligible and Douglas is likely to drift slowly west-northwestward between 24 and 72 h. By days 4 and 5, the remnant low of Douglas will accelerate westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon TVCE - the variable consensus model - and is slightly north of the previous advisory.

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- --------------

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP052014)
8:00 PM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: ELIDA South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Elida (1003 hPa) located at 17.4N 104.4W or 95 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.5N 104.6W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.5N 104.8W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.3N 104.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.1N 105.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Overall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little during the past 6 to 12 hours. The center briefly became exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Since that time, a new burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed near and over the the center. The initial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.

Recent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably today, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt. The global model guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of weak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this time, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should cause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast during the first few days.

Little change in strength is expected during the next two to three days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear. After Elida begins moving westward later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes

(edit: oops, that is southwestern Mexico not northeastern part.)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
258. OSHNBLU
3:08 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Oldies but goodies coming out.
in Titusville these days,
Just walking outside, I know its Tropical
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5214
257. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:06 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami is suddenly busy monitoring three tropical cyclones now. (shocked)

By the way, the CMC is forecasting a typhoon in the coming days (July 4) near Guam (90W)

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
256. Skyepony
3:01 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
That was funny she spotting you like that. Fun reunion day in there.

& me you. Good to see you.


I see 91L with some convection..We got TD 1! Next recon isn't until tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
254. Skyepony
12:46 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Yes it's the real Randrewl. I knew you'd be back. It's great to see you:) I've persisted here, though they've modded me, so behave!

Enjoying the cooler day from 91L or what? Got breezy here even for a bit.

Bogon~ I've had a few traces of rain so far today. Nothing like the downpour yesterday.

12Z GEOS-5 still doesn't develop this much. I've been & still am leaning that way. Some of the dry air hanging out over this storm is impressive.

I've had several not square avatars. They do play better in the comments now. Was really pushing what I'd seen shape wise with that one.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
253. Bogon
10:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Looks like big convection firing up just south of you. Any rain yet?

Cool picture with you and Buster. This is the first time I noticed that you can have a non-square avatar on NUWU2.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3698
251. aquak9
10:03 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Quoting 250. Randrewl:
It always seems to take forever for that VDM doesn't it?

Nice to see you're still here Sky!

oh dear sweet heavens above

oh big fat buddha in a basket

flying fish and dropping citrus

it's Randrewl.

this is REALLY gonna be fun.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25940
249. Skyepony
8:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Finally a vortex message..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 19:57:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°46'N 78°52'W (27.7667N 78.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (167 km) to the NE (45°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 21kts (From the ESE at ~ 24.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 397m (1,302ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) at 0:45
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
/ 83 NM 19:30:30Z


Hood~ I've been enjoying the storm hanging out. Only 88.2ºF:) Been looking forward to taking Buster driving. He really had a good time & was feeling the cooler weather. I'll have to get more shots of that cart. Still need to recover the seat. It's homemade & pretty neat. You could stow a picnic backet or a cooler under the seat & get to it while riding in the cart. The back of the cart has a place to hitch a little trailer to it. With the wider pneumatic tires it's great off road too. I could see hitting some Fl trails with it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
248. RobDaHood
8:23 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Quoting 247. Skyepony:

Hurricane Hunters hit center again around 27.767N 78.850W. 1009.7mb was the lowest pressure & close in the area. Not the best stacked.
That's what I was thinking comparing radar and sat loops.
Oh...did I mention I'm not thrilled with this thing hanging around the neighborhood?
LOL

Aqua...cute poem.
Bug...that's okay, we like bad girls!
Wabbit...take good care, we'll be monitoring.

Oh, and if I haven't mentioned it, love the pony cart.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32014
247. Skyepony
8:09 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Hurricane Hunters hit center again around 27.767N 78.850W. 1009.7mb was the lowest pressure & close in the area. Not the best stacked.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
246. Skyepony
6:48 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Quoting 241. whitewabit:

A strong storm this morning dumped a quick 1.32 inches on me earlier this morning and expect more this afternoon as severe storms develop and move into central Illinois .... up to 11.72 for the month now ..

Looked rough up your way today. The storms up there are probably more serious than this invest.. Be safe:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
245. Skyepony
6:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
91L Click pic for loop.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
244. Skyepony
6:36 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Recent Terra pass of 91L..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
243. Skyepony
6:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)

43.1 knots (~ 49.6 mph)
Tropical Storm

There is some Tropical Storm force winds..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
242. Skyepony
6:27 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
They found center around.. 28.067N 78.717W 1011.4mb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
241. whitewabit (Mod)
6:07 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
A strong storm this morning dumped a quick 1.32 inches on me earlier this morning and expect more this afternoon as severe storms develop and move into central Illinois .... up to 11.72 for the month now ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31410
240. whitewabit (Mod)
6:05 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 17:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 17:44Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.6N 79.2W
Location: 93 miles (150 km) to the ENE (69°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 400 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 40° at 18 knots (From the NE at ~ 20.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -6°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1015 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 20° at 25 knots (From the NNE at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 27 knots (~ 31.1mph)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31410
239. Skyepony
5:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
They are about 86 miles (139 km) to the ENE (68°) from Melbourne, FL, USA,. Just descended to ~1500'. finding 30kt winds from the NNE.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
238. aquak9
5:41 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
love the new cart pic! good buster.

Was hoping someone would get to see the HH's fly by. May need to talk Rain into a new
Recoon.

Please add any important decoded data, I'll be lurking from work. Vortex data
oughtta coming in in about an hour, plus or minus.

laterz-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25940
237. Skyepony
5:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Hurricane Hunters are on the way to 91L. They just flew past the VAB at KSC!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
236. Skyepony
5:23 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
91L is a nice break from the oppressive heat.. Mid 80s this morning. Took Buster out for a drive. He loved it.

GEOS-5 shows 91L coming to southFL & slowly meanders up all over the state through the work week. Land impeded, 91L brings some rain but the dry air keeps this from being a total Faye.



End of the week the center moves up along GA to the Carolinas..



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37853
235. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:07 AM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
8:00 PM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Southeast of Clarion Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1003 hPa) located at 16.4N 113.0W or 425 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.0N 114.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.9N 115.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.6N 117.2W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.8N 118.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
The satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved during the past several hours. Deep convection has increased near the center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers are a consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 knots. Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Although Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the longer-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 knots. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge that extends from the southwestern United States westward across the eastern Pacific. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Later in the period, Douglas should turn westward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is quite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north Douglas gets before making the westward turn. For now, the NHC track forecast remains along the southern edge of the model envelope. This is close to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. The main inhibiting factor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of the cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. This should cause gradual weakening and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309

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