93E Plant Something

By: Skyepony , 5:38 AM GMT on May 15, 2014

Share this Blog
8
+

Atlantic

East Pacific
93E



West Pacific

Indian Ocean

East Pacific

Arabian Sea

Southern Hemisphere

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

Ah May... the planting madness is done..sure in FL there is atleast a few things to be planted this month. A good time to assess how much room will be available when the squash, cucs & garlic are gone, to plant some replacements. Southern Peas are black eye, pink eye & cow pea varieties. They fix Nitrogen in the soil, a great summer cover crop that follows heavy feeders like squash wonderfully. They love heat & can dry on the dead bush to be picked after you return from summer vacation. This is true for most the gift/household utility sort of crops like broomcorn & dishrag gourds. Most years if it isn't raining constantly these crops can be left to dry on the plant.

It's a good thing the planting has let up as the spring & summer garden begin to take over. Feeding, watering, staking/caging & harvesting is the main garden chores for the month with most likely a little bit of weeding. Plant these seeds...

North FL Lima beans, eggplant, okra, southern peas, sweet potatoes, Gourds & broomgrass.

Central FL ..Plant~ okra, southern peas, sweet potatoes, Gourds & broomgrass.

South FL sweet potatoes, southern peas, Gourds & Broomgrass.


May 2014
31st This is a most favorable day for planting corn, cotton, okra, beans, peppers, eggplant, and other aboveground crops. Also a good day to plant your seedbeds and flower gardens.
Local Weather~
Warm, maybe rain.


NHC Tropical Discussion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger

Local Hazards
Wind & Sea..Rip Current..Flood..Lightning..Severe Hail..Severe Winds..Tornadoes...cold...Fire




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Watching for rain & minimum temps..
click maps to go interactive







click maps to make bigger & animate
HAZARDS




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~

Visitor Map........
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 144 - 94

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

144. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:45 PM GMT on June 01, 2014
Skyepony has created a new entry.
143. aquak9
1:43 PM GMT on June 01, 2014
EEEEEk! on the Manasota forecast!

Hi mom!!

Happy 6th to me and Rain!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26644
142. Proserpina
1:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2014
@Maria photo 20140530_7622June_zps39a99db8.jpg
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 177 Comments: 18431
141. Skyepony
3:14 AM GMT on June 01, 2014
Quoting 136. QueensWreath:



Ok thanks for the heads up. I just scattered my nemagolds over the Vege garden.I just harvested the few Blue Speckled Tepary Beans that I grew. They did fairly poorly in the prepared vege bed. But I did notice that the ones that were near the edge and were sprawling / not climbing, did way better. I think next year I will try them in the landscape. So I am saving all the seeds from this harvest. You know how it is you buy a plant that is supposed to be in bad dry soil and you plant it in watered amended soil and think it will do better. Um ..... Not so much.

Not everything wants it nice.. I like these gamely small watermelons I grow. Sometimes I find them growing out in the yard.

Pulled up a few nemagolds out of mine.. actually Justlivnsgolds. They'd have took part of the garden & be trying to rule the Rue & Citronella had I let them. Harvested alot of catnip, rue & citronella. Need to finish making fly spray.

It was cloudy so gardening was pretty happy when I wasn't getting bit by fire ants. Weeded good. With a weed whacking around the garden & a good feeding with mulch (end of last year's hay) it should be set for a bit. I'm about to drown in round two of the yard long beans.

Speaking of hay.. This year's first coastal spring hay is in & it's nice:)


Waterator~ That is pretty cool & gardening related. I'm curious about the watt usage.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
140. Skyepony
9:48 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Planted okra, rattlesnake beans, dishrag gourds, seeds from a watermelon that I found & ate in the garden & millet grass.


There's that extra-tropical low off the NE I was talking about for Saturday..




>Here's it's max wind forecast winds from the CMC..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
139. QueensWreath
7:45 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Aqua. Can you and Rain plan an early Anniversary trip next year? Say around Mid April , so that Florida gets a good soaking when its really needed. Oh well what ya gonna do? I suggest snuggling in front of a large window so you can enjoy the weather and make the best of it. Have fun and say hi to Rain.EDIT: This is so deJavous all over again.
Member Since: April 27, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 663
138. QueensWreath
7:39 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Quoting Daisyworld:
Whoa! It almost looks as if it's melting into the ice pack now!



Probably multiple ice chunks are manipulating its position away from vertical.And hopefully not a gravitational reversal and polar shift. Newtons worst nightmare. LOL. Happy planting Sky.
Member Since: April 27, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 663
137. Waterator
7:36 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Hey everyone! weather is getting more crazy everyday and thats just one of many reasons we have created this device! come over and give us at Waterator Funding a like!!! Great cause right??? who doesn't like saving the world..


https://www.facebook.com/WateratorFundingPage


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uj16042rTgU
Member Since: May 31, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
136. QueensWreath
7:34 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Quoting Skyepony:
It's garden time.. Great planting day by the moon with a rainy looking week ahead. It's a day to throw seed.


Ok thanks for the heads up. I just scattered my nemagolds over the Vege garden.I just harvested the few Blue Speckled Tepary Beans that I grew. They did fairly poorly in the prepared vege bed. But I did notice that the ones that were near the edge and were sprawling / not climbing, did way better. I think next year I will try them in the landscape. So I am saving all the seeds from this harvest. You know how it is you buy a plant that is supposed to be in bad dry soil and you plant it in watered amended soil and think it will do better. Um ..... Not so much.
Member Since: April 27, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 663
135. Skyepony
6:37 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
It's garden time.. Great planting day by the moon with a rainy looking week ahead. It's a day to throw seed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
134. Skyepony
6:32 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Ohhhh it's in the ice water! That is one of my favorite buoys.. Hope it rights once it is in open water. There was one last year that got so deep in the ice it couldn't be recovered.

Checked the logs to see if they added anything. They haven't. Meant to post this more than a month ago...it's their adventures of placing the buoys, cams & such.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
133. Daisyworld
6:12 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Whoa! It almost looks as if it's melting into the ice pack now!

Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 879
132. Skyepony
12:48 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
{{{aqua}}}~ Nice anniversary blob blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.. Raise the wedding flags & buy some batteries:))

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
131. aquak9
12:23 PM GMT on May 31, 2014
Awwww...it's an anniversary sale!

Who else do you know, who flew Hurricane flags at their wedding?

hahaha-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26644
130. Skyepony
4:06 AM GMT on May 31, 2014
Happy Hurricane FL Tax Free Week Everyone!

Well atleast everyone living in FL..

Here is a list of everything tax-free this week.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
129. Skyepony
3:56 AM GMT on May 31, 2014
Saw something on the hurricane hunters. They will be deploying coyote drones that can fly really low. Like a dropsonde but more drone like. They are going to use the Global Hawk. It's an unmanned drone that can fly out & check on storms off Africa. The real time feed to the models data flow looked really nice too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
128. Skyepony
3:52 AM GMT on May 31, 2014
It's underway.. 93E has been declared.

Here's a MODIS shot from a few hours ago.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT May 30 2014
=============================

A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico remains poorly organized. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days as it drifts northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
126. Skyepony
5:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Here's a snip of me playing Canal Street Clambake...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
125. Skyepony
5:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
East Coast Seabreeze firing up. Hear thunder to the west. Had .01" so far. Ended up with .02 yesterday.

Today's run of GEOS-5, not much different than yesterday, shows a weak low in the EPAC landfall on Central America late Monday.




This crosses Central America & tries to pull together in the Gulf of Mexico under less than ideal. conditions. Probably stay a sheared broad low that brings alot of rain to FL end of next week through the weekend.




Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:17 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT May 30 2014
=============================

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico. This activity is currently poorly organized, but environmental conditions should become conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days as it drifts northward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
123. Skyepony
5:01 AM GMT on May 30, 2014
The Band & me preforming Song Without Words..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
122. Skyepony
3:06 AM GMT on May 30, 2014
95S is gone now too.

Hades~ That is a pretty large pool of exceptionally warm water..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
121. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:11 PM GMT on May 29, 2014


CMC is forecasting a strong Arabian Sea cyclone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
120. Skyepony
1:53 PM GMT on May 29, 2014
Hey Hades.. Yeah looking sort of tropically dead. Amanda decapitated. NOAA took the floater off 93A. I'll have to fix that up later.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
119. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:16 PM GMT on May 29, 2014
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:30 PM RET May 29 2014
========================

A broad low level clockwise circulation is present since a few days at the western edge of the Near Equatorial Trough near 4.0S 62.0E. Locally deep convection exists far away from the center, over the western and southern sectors between the Seychelles archipelago and 10.0S and between 55.0E and 62.0E, within the convergence/confluence area with the tradewinds. As the broad low level pattern should gradually shift generally west northwestwards within the next few days (with no potential regard to TC development), a somewhat disturbed weather will persist over most parts of the Seychelles archipelago (including outer and inner islands) within the next 3 days.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 5 days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
118. Skyepony
12:50 PM GMT on May 29, 2014
Still liking the two blob scenario..

First an extratropical blob off the NE coast on Saturday..



& the other a Gulf of Mexico Blob. This should start as the ULL that has been hanging out between OK & LA draws moisture up from the EPAC.. May see a blob as soon as Saturday around the Yucatan..but it should stay disorganized due to shear & cooler water temps.




Today's GEOS-5 run has alot of moisture getting sheared across FL with eventually the blob moving across FL..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
117. Skyepony
4:14 AM GMT on May 29, 2014
95S & 93A are new... Southern Hemisphere isn't giving up this year.. Neither are impressive, both are looking like a flock of gulls tonight.

Amanda is unwinding & dying down. Modis caught it earlier this evening affecting some little island in the EPAC..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
116. Skyepony
11:08 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
Our recent photos are back in the blogs..Thanks Devs!


Hey aqua ♥ the pics... A bug ate my first yellow pears of the year yesterday. Yours are looking great!

I've found Cantaloupes need picked the day they turn ripe. Hard to tell if they are mine. Had a variety that looked like that. What I replanted this year is more green. Awesome Zinnas.. Bring on the rain:)


Here's an article about that tornado that hit the fracking mancamp with a different video of it. Original reports had no injuries. Turned out 9 were injured, one critically.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
115. aquak9
4:12 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
A quick run-thru with pics.

Desert Rose for QueensWreath:



Caterpillars are eating the eggplant leaves no matter how much BT I use- but they're still producing. The first of the eggplants:



Yellow pears produce all the way up to November if there's no freeze.



I think these are the Tsi Bi Tu (Jasper) tomatoes that Spathy sent me a few years ago.



Sweet Million, long pearl-like strands-



I think these might be Haogen melons, or yours?



And some Giant California Zinnias I got from BountifulGardens a few years ago.



The heat is making everything wilt, and we are not getting dependable rain. Mowing is a dust fest. I hope we get rain soon.

June 1st- our anniversary- and we always bring a storm back with us from the Gulf. This year will be no exception..

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26644
114. Skyepony
2:49 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
This looks like the tornado that hit the fracking camp in ND a few days ago.

There is all sorts of cursing in this.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
113. Skyepony
2:28 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
OR~ Saw it lastnight & at some point yesterday. Been kind of looking for it. It was forecast by some models. GEOS-5 had it that pronounced. Have you had much rain from it?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
112. OrangeRoses
1:31 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
thanks Skye. U probably didn't see the best aviation IMG. Tulsa NWS and or WU mentioned the spiral in their forecast, I been trying to avoid Shreveport prattles. Tulsa covers Hugo, OK, 47 miles ENE
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 778
111. Skyepony
1:11 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
ESPI is 0.16 this morning.. odd.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
110. Skyepony
1:01 PM GMT on May 28, 2014
GEOS-5 is starting to close off those blobs into storms toward the end of the run now. First one showing blob in the Gulf of Mexico trying to wrap up into a TS June 6th..



Yesterday it was forming a weak near STD off the Carolinas. Today that looks more like an extratropical storm east of the NE around June 2nd...


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
109. Skyepony
4:14 AM GMT on May 28, 2014
Finn~ Thanks for the cute video. That's amazing they took milk..

Daisyworld~ The buoy down is somewhat perplexing & cam 1..That's the best one. What about watching the poles fall over? We've always joked about who was gonna row out in a storm & get us a pressure reading...we should send someone to go right that thing...or maybe see if it rights itself once in open water.

OR~ It's working it's way down toward the surface.. Between the change of seasons & the high building east of me this low looks like it's getting trapped in your area...It's to move a bit toward LA but may wander back your way in some days..

850mb vort map


Hades~ Thanks for the updates.. Recent Terra of Amanda.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
108. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:46 AM GMT on May 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA (EP012014)
8:00 PM PDT May 27 2014
================================

SUBJECT: "AMANDA" Southeast of Clarion Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Amanda (992 hPa) located at 14.6N 112.9W or 525 NM south southwest of southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 15.0N 112.8W - 50 knot (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.8N 112.4W- 40 knot (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 17.0N 111.5W -30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS 17.1N 111.4W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
=================
Amanda's cloud pattern continues to lose organization. Several microwave overpasses during the past 6 to 8 hours show that the center of the cyclone is exposed to the south of the nearest deep convection and is located farther south than previous estimated. Late-afternoon visible imagery confirmed these findings, with geostationary imagery also showing the convection warming and shrinking in coverage. The degradation in organization has resulted in a significant decrease of satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon. The initial intensity is somewhat uncertain since the Dvorak technique does not work well for rapidly weakening cyclones but is reduced to 60 knots based on a blend of T- and CI numbers from TAFB and NESDIS SAB. Additional weakening is likely as south southwesterly shear, the entrainment of drier and more stable air, and a cooler ocean surface take their toll on Amanda. Even though the shear is forecast to decrease in 24 to 36 hours, it appears that it will be too late for the cyclone to overcome the combined effect of these negative factors for intensification. Remnant low status is now forecast in 72 hours, although it could occur sooner. The official forecast is lower relative to the previous one and near but a bit lower than a combination of the multi-model consensus, Decay-SHIPS, and LGEM.

Center fixes suggest that the motion had been west-northwesterly throughout the day, and the initial motion estimate is left of the previous one or 305 degrees at 3 knots. The cyclone remains embedded in a weak steering environment between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. This synoptic pattern should allow for a generally slow northward or north-northeastward motion for the next few days before Amanda degenerates into a remnant low and turns westward or southwestward. Should Amanda weaken faster than forecast, little motion is expected, and its remnants could turn eastward in an anomalous low-level westerly flow. The official forecast is on the far western side of the guidance envelope, and is much slower than the previous forecast due primarily to the more southern initial position.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
107. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:42 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA (EP012014)
2:00 PM PDT May 27 2014
================================

SUBJECT: "AMANDA" Southwest of Socorro Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Amanda (970 hPa) located at 15.0N 112.6W or 500 NM south southwest of southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 15.6N 112.4W - 75 knot (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.4N 112.0W- 65 knot (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.0N 110.7W -50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 18.0N 111.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=================
Amanda's cloud pattern has deteriorated in organization today. Although the cyclone is producing some very intense convection, the thunderstorms are not particularly well organized, and there is little evidence of banding features. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 knots in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from NESDIS SAB - however, this may be generous. The weakening of the hurricane may be partially due to its slow movement, and the resultant upwelling of cooler ocean waters. Although the vertical shear is predicted to diminish over the next day or two, drier air and lower sea surface temperatures are likely to induce continued weakening. The official wind speed forecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS and intensity model consensus guidance.

The hurricane continues to plod north-northwestward at 4 knots between a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast and a weak trough to its northwest. Steering currents are forecast to remain weak for the next several days, but most of the track models show the tropical cyclone turning northward and then northeastward over the next couple of days into a slight weakness in the ridge over northwestern Mexico. Late in the forecast period, a northeast southwest oriented ridge extending across the Baja California peninsula should cause Amanda to turn southwestward. The official track forecast is only slightly west of the previous one and close to the latest dynamical model consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
106. OrangeRoses
1:49 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
I think this aviation weather sat shows an upper level low which I've been trying to find. It is indirectly there. U don't ever see an ULL





Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 778
105. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:00 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA (EP012014)
2:00 AM PDT May 27 2014
================================

SUBJECT: "AMANDA" Southwest of Socorro Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Amanda (954 hPa) located at 14.2N 112.2W or 538 NM south southwest of southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 14.6N 112.3W - 95 knot (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.1N 112.1W - 80 knot (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4N 111.0W -50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 17.5N 110.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=================
Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank. The hurricane appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past several hours. An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded by convective tops as cold as -85C. The shear is still affecting the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to north. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 knots from TAFB, T5.5/102 knots from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on a conservative blend of these data.

The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant change to the official intensity forecast. Weakening is expected to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which should persist for another 24 hours or so. After that time, however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level environment for a few days. Due to the higher initial intensity and the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period. Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU Super ensemble. The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest of the intensity models end up being correct.

Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 knots...between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level trough near 20N 128W. As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn northeastward by 48 hours. Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to stall or meander by days 4 and 5. Although there is still a significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model consensus TVCE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
104. Daisyworld
6:12 AM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 95. Skyepony:

Nooooo...the buoy near the north pole looks down....




Yeah, I saw that too. Wonder if it was the open water you pointed out last week? Or just the wind blowing it over from some sort of downburst? Whatever it was, it must have been brutal. Those buoys are designed to be pretty resilient from what I understand.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 879
103. LakeWorthFinn
3:03 AM GMT on May 27, 2014
Thinking of you when saw this cute video:



Looking forward to rain... the heat is on. 2 and half weeks till retirement :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
102. Skyepony
5:18 PM GMT on May 26, 2014
ESPI went up to like 1.76 & has plummeted in the last 10 days to 0.26. May see ENSO deepen & then step down cooler before most likely rising again. The way 92B has persisted it helped set off a Kelvin wave.. Overall globally we did sort of go through a quiet spell or it fell out as hail..

Here is 92B earlier today before the effects of land really set in...It's lasted 7 days but shouldn't last much longer..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
101. Skyepony
5:02 PM GMT on May 26, 2014
Have a great Memorial Day Patrap!

Amanda
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
100. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on May 26, 2014
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
99. Skyepony
1:49 PM GMT on May 26, 2014


The heat & sting of summer are here. My legs have a few deer fly bites...hard, itchy welts. Done exposing much skin or feet out there.

Posted a farewell shot of the ducks. They grew really fast and were ready to move on.

Duck tending the last week & watering due to lack of rain took my garden time. That is starting to look a little full & wild...

Guygee
~ I forgot to give you a citronella plant or two. They were in the north garden, total jungle in there. Let me know if you want some.

Today & tomorrow are good root crop planting & general plant transplanting days..

Made these scones lastnight with blueberries..yummm.. Used a 1/3 less sugar & added a tbls molasses.


I'm not sold on a tropical storm for first week in june...I'm seeing more two blobs or areas of moisture.. one Central America, the other goes over Cuba & FL.. It may try & close off into a low off NFL to SC...maybe invest, maybe a depression, maybe blob..looking forward to the rain. Overall it should be a fairly dry week for ECFL ahead. SFL & WFL having better chance of afternoon showers this week.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
98. Skyepony
1:04 PM GMT on May 26, 2014
Aqua pass of Amanda lastnight..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
97. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:06 AM GMT on May 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA (EP012014)
8:00 PM PDT May 25 2014
================================

SUBJECT: "AMANDA" South of Socorro Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Amanda (941 hPa) located at 12.6N 111.4W or 625 NM south of southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 13.0N 111.6W - 110 knot (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
24 HRS: 14.0N 111.9W - 95 knot (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
48 HRS 15.9N 112.1W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.6N 112.0W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=================
Since Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been some erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly wind shear. A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the southern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and the initial intensity is set to 125 knots, based on blend of Final-T and CI numbers.

The initial motion is 335/03. The cyclone is located between a mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough to the west. A weak deep-layer south southeasterly to southerly flow between these two features should steer Amanda north northwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or begin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the trade wind flow. The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward again, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. It lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway between the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE through 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the period.

Moderate to strong south southwesterly vertical wind shear, combined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the next few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low and mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone interacts with the trough to its west. The entrainment of substantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever remains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The official forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the short term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46911
96. Skyepony
10:16 PM GMT on May 25, 2014
Good article showing before & after drought out west satellite & pictures..

Country's produce basket looking parched..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
95. Skyepony
9:42 PM GMT on May 25, 2014
Nooooo...the buoy near the north pole looks down....

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380
94. Skyepony
9:27 PM GMT on May 25, 2014
Alaska has been on fire lately. Here's a time lapse of the Funny River Fire the other night.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39380

Viewing: 144 - 94

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Local Weather

Overcast
63 °F
Overcast

Skyepony's Recent Photos

Yacon Root
Orion Fans
Orion Sunrise
Orion Sunrise

Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 61.0 °F
Dew Point: 60.6 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 7:52 AM EST on December 21, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 39.9 °F
Dew Point: 36.4 °F
Humidity: 87%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 7:52 AM EST on December 21, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 38.0 °F
Dew Point: 37.0 °F
Humidity: 97%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 7:12 AM EST on December 21, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations