Hellen Aftermath / Many Invests

By: Skyepony , 1:37 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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Atlantic

East Pacific

West Pacific
95W


Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Southern Hemisphere
98P


97P


96S


21S Hellen


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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.


March brings spring & more summer seeds to the ground in North FL. Central FL~ the rush is on to get the last of the spring seeds in like cucumbers, corn, watermelon, squash.. really your last month to plant a decent summer garden. South FL~ It's about time to pack away all your winter seeds. Plenty of summer seeds can still be planted for fresh eating in the months ahead. * means last month to plant.

North FL Plant all beans, cantaloupe, corn, cucumbers, eggplant, peppers, squash, tomatoes, watermelon- beets*, Carrots*, celery*, Kohlrabi*, leek*, lettuce*, Mustard, bunching onions*, parsley, snow peas*, potatoes*, radish* & turnips.

Central FL ..Plant~ All beans, cantaloupes, corn*, cucumber*, eggplant*, okra, southern peas, peppers*, sweet potatoes, pumpkin*, all squash*, tomatoes*, watermelon*, beets*, carrots*, collards*, lettuce*, mustard*, snow peas*, radish*.

South FL Plant ALL beans, cantaloupes, corn, cucumbers, southern Peas, peppers*, sweet potatoes, summer squash*, tomatoes, watermelon, mustard*, bunching onions*, radish*.


March 2014
30th-31st Cultivate and spray, do general farm work, but no planting.
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431. OrangeRoses
1:01 AM GMT on June 13, 2014
Full Moon Honey Moon

On the night of June 12th and continuing into the morning of Friday, the 13th, the most unlucky day of the year, a full Honey Moon will appear low in the sky - the first time this creepy combination has happened in decades.
Slooh will cover the Honey Moon live on Thursday, June 12th starting at 6:00 PM PDT / 9:00 PM EDT / 01:00 UTC (6/13). Slooh will broadcast the event live from two Slooh member controlled observatory sites: (1) off the west coast of Africa, at the Institute of Astrophyiscs of the Canary Islands, and (2) from the Pontificia Universidad Cat%uFFFDlica De Chile (PUC) near Santiago, Chile.
Viewers can watch the live full Honey Moon broadcast free on Slooh.com. The image stream will be accompanied by discussions led by Slooh host, Geoff Fox, Slooh astronomer, Bob Berman


Watch it on Youtube
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 719
430. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:45 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
GFS has several of those invest becoming cyclones or strong low pressure areas.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
429. whitewabit (Mod)
3:39 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
whitewabit X 3 hopefully April will bring warm weather with the jump into Spring !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
428. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:48 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. FORMER TC HELLEN (14-20132014)
4:00 AM RET April 1 2014
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Hellen (1004 hPa) located at 16.4S 45.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.8S 44.4E - (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS 17.3S 43.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS 18.4S 41.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS 18.9S 38.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================

The residual active convection of the system has almost totally vanished over Madagascar. The residual low level circulation center, overland, is difficult to locate.

According to the weakening of the system, most of the numerical weather prediction models forecast a movement west to southwestward for the residual low level circulation center within the next days, under the steering influence of the east to northeasterly flow generated by the subtropical ridge re-building south of Madagascar in the lower troposphere.

None of the available numerical weather prediction models, including the members of the ensemble prevision, forecasts a re-intensification when the low will come back over sea and cross the Mozambican channel.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
427. Skyepony
9:49 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
No real Post-Hellen news out of Madagascar yet.. There is the flooding in N Madagascar comment 425.

FL locals look at comments 381 & 382 (they self update). Looks like a weak mid level low trying off SFL..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
426. Skyepony
9:48 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
96S, 97P & 98P are new. 98P at first glance looking gamely..Lacks deep convection but pulling together fast...




A write up on that Hellen aqua pass..click pic.



CIMSS did a great write up on The Bomb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
425. Skyepony
5:36 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Not seeing much for news out of Madagascar yet. Devastation though began in North Madagascar from all the rain that has fallen while Hellen has been in the area..



Four Killed In Torrential Rain In Pemba, Northern Mozambique
MAPUTO, March 31 (BERNAMA-NNN-AIM) -- Torrential rains which have fallen for the past week in the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado have killed at least four people in the provincial capital, Pemba, according to a report by the independent television station, STV.

Three people died when a house collapsed in the Pemba neighbourhood of Cariaco, and a child drowned in a stream in the Chiuba neighbourhood, the report said.

The mayor of Pemba, Tagir Carimo, who visited the worst hit areas on Thursday, accompanied by the Cabo Delgado provincial governor, Abdul Razak, told reporters that the city was in a disaster situation. He said these are the heaviest rains Pemba has seen for at least 20 years.

According to the Beira daily newspaper, Diario de Mocambique, the Municipal Council spent around three million meticais (about US$98,400) on emergency repairs at critical points following the initial storms this rainy season in an attempt to prevent roads from being cut. However, the past week's downpours have swept away that work, and Carimo admitted it had failed.

More than 100 houses built of flimsy materials have been destroyed, and the severe erosion has wrecked part of the mains supplying drinking water to the city.

The storms have also swept away a bridge over the Messalo River, cutting Pemba off from the northern districts of Cabo Delgado.
More here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
424. Skyepony
2:07 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Looks like Hellen hit Madagascar hard..

Aqua


NOAA19


Meteosat7 click pic for link. Hellen is pushing inland a bit..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
423. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:01 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. FORMER TC HELLEN (14-20132014)
16:00 PM RET March 31 2014
===============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Hellen (990 hPa) located at 16.0S 45.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
45 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.4S 44.9E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS 16.5S 44.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS 17.0S 42.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS 17.7S 39.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================

Now the system is completely dislocated. The main convective mass has collapsed and continues to move southward as the low level vortex seems progress less fast. However 1100z obs of Mahajanga (360º/20kt) suggests that the center has just come across land.

For the next 24 hours, they are many uncertainties for the moving of the system, but in regard of the weakening, a slow drift toward the west southwest is likely within a east northeasterly low level flow. The system should continue to weaken overland. This weakening will be more or less important according to the duration that the system will stay overland. A total dissipation is not excluded.

Between Tuesday morning and Friday, the system is expected to move regularly west-southwestward over the Mozambique channel, steered by the easterly low-mid level flow. None of the available numerical weather prediction models forecasts a re-intensification for this system on this track. The vertical wind shear is weak and the sea surface temperatures are very high (29-30C), but the upper level divergence and the low level convergence are not favorable. So the intensity forecast is again rather difficult when the system will cross the Mozambique channel toward the west. This official RSMC forecast speaks up for a weak re-intensification before a new landfall on Friday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
422. Skyepony
5:59 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Best of luck for anyone near Hellen.. Hope people got away from the ocean, this should have a bad storm surge.

Wind..




psu~ Thanks for bringing that!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
421. Skyepony
5:51 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Remnant waves from The Bomb..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
420. psualum95
11:42 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
942
NOUS42 KMLB 302240
PNSMLB
FLZ045-311045-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
640 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 03/29/14 TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS...

.OVERVIEW...A BOW ECHO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A THUNDERSTORM SQUALL
LINE MOVED RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MARCH 29. A SWATH OF WINDS 45-60 MPH ACCOMPANIED THE BOW
ECHO AND PRODUCED TREE DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. A "BOOK-END VORTEX"
RAPIDLY EVOLVED AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE BOW ECHO...AND RESULTED
IN AN EF-0 TORNADO WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. WHILE
GROUND-LEVEL WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65-75 MPH WITHIN THE TORNADO
PATH...WINDS AT TREE-TOP LEVEL (50-100 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) WERE
ESTIMATED AT 80-90 MPH. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...
WITH AIRBORNE DEBRIS CAUSING DAMAGE TO HOMES BELOW AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM. VERY LITTLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES...DIRECTLY RELATED
TO THE TORNADIC WINDS OCCURRED.

NWS MELBOURNE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE FOLLOWING AGENCIES FOR
ASSISTING WITH THE SURVEY: FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...ORANGE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...CITY OF
ORLANDO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ALSO...THE DETAILS PROVIDED BY
THE MANY RESIDENTS THAT WE INTERVIEWED WERE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED.

.LAKE MARY JANE TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65-75 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.43 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: MAR 29 2014
START TIME: 220 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 1 E LAKE MARY JANE ORANGE COUNTY FL
START LAT/LON: 28.3753 / -81.17700

END DATE: MAR 29 2014
END TIME: 223 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 3 ENE LAKE MARY JANE ORANGE COUNTY FL
END LAT/LON: 28.3892 / -81.1332

SURVEY SUMMARY: LAKE MARY JANE TORNADO...A "BOOK END VORTEX" RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BOW ECHO. A NWS STORM SURVEY
CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO...WITH ESIMATED GROUND-LEVEL WINDS OF
65-75 MPH. THE TORNADO DEVELOPED AT THE EAST EDGE OF LAKE MARY JANE
(POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A WATERSPOUT OVER THE LAKE) AND WAS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER REGION OF STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE TORNADO
IMPACTED APPROXIMATELY THREE BLOCKS OF HOMES WITHIN THE ISLE OF
PINES SUBDIVISION...THEN CONTINUED INTO A RURAL...UNPOPULATED AREA
FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE HOMES SUSTAINED LITTLE DIRECT
STRUCTRAL DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO...FALLING TREES DAMAGED SEVERAL
HOMES AND VEHICLES ALONG THE TORNADO PATH. WINDS AT TREE-TOP LEVEL
(50-100 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL) WERE ESTIMATED AT 80-90 MPH.
VELOCITY DATA FROM THE ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TDWR RADAR
(TMCO) SHOWED WINDS UP TO 100 MPH AT 300 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200MPH

.SOUTH ORANGE COUNTY THUNDERSTORM WIND...

PEAK WIND /E/: 45-60 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1760 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: MAR 29 2014
START TIME: 212 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 5 ENE BUENA VENTURA LAKES ORANGE COUNTY FL
START LAT/LON: 28.3652 / -81.2657

END DATE: MAR 29 2014
END TIME: 223 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 3 ENE LAKE MARY JANE ORANGE COUNTY FL
END LAT/LON: 28.3892 / -81.1332

SURVEY SUMMARY: A BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
TRAVELED RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MARCH 29. A NWS STORM SURVEY REVEALED AN 8-MILE LONG
SWATH OF STRAIGHT-LINE (WEST-TO-EAST) WIND DAMAGE TO TREES...
FENCES...AND SIGNS. THE WIDTH OF THE CORRIDOR OF WINDS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH VARIED BETWEEN ONE-HALF MILE AND ONE-MILE.
SEVERAL HOMES AND VEHICLES WERE DAMAGED DUE TO FALLING TREES AND
TREE BRANCHES.

NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

SPRATT/ULRICH
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6874
419. whitewabit (Mod)
9:55 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 417. Skyepony:
Information as of the most recent model cycle..

At 1200 UTC, 30 March 2014, HELLEN (SH21) was located in the South-West Indian basin at 14.7°S and 44.6°E. The current intensity was 130 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 140 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 926 mb.


she has deepened unbelievably this past 24 hours .. am afraid this will be a very deadly storm before she is through !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:14 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE TRES HELLEN (14-20132014)
22:00 PM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen (925 hPa) located at 15.0S 45.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 175 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 40 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern quadrant and southeastern quadrants, and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 95 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/7.0/D2.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.7S 45.2E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 16.3S 44.8E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 17.1S 43.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 17.7S 41.4E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=========================

After presenting from 1100z to 1500z a DT=7.0 on meteosat7 enhanced infrared imagery, Hellen eye is cooling from 19 dg at 1300z to -36 fg at 1800z. 1710z and 1533z SSMIS microwave imagery still not suggest any eyewall cycle replacement. Hellen is likely to be one of the most powerful tropical cyclone ever seen over the northern channel since the satellite era (1967).

Given the past track over the last 6 hours more southeastern than previously expected, the likelihood is increasing for an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone landfall over the northwestern coastline of Madagascar between Cape Saint-Andre and Mahajonga. Given this possibility, the RSMC tropical cyclone storm surge numerical weather prediction has been run that shows phenomenal sea elevations in the area exposed to the northerly winds (east of the forecast track). This potentially strengthen area is very sensitive because its Bathymetry (plateau)and storm surge could reach between 2-4 meters in the estuary of the Betsiboka river (Mahajonga), more than 7 meters in the Bay of Baly (Soalala) and between 1-4 meters on the coastline east of Cape Saint-Andre. All preparations for a "worst case" scenario should be underway

The system is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak to moderate (6.4 m/s according to CIMSS at 1800z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18s.Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking slowly southeastwards during the next 6 to 12 hours before being within a too slow steering environment that should lead to a quasi-stat motion. A weakening trend initiated by induced cold sea surface temperatures may taken place by that time. On the hand some numerical weather prediction models suggest a temporarily rising of the vertical wind shear tonight. The intensity forecast remains uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

On and after Monday, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. Before re-curving westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. If an overland track over the northwestern Madagascar occurs, it should weaken the system but it is expected to be back oversea at a significant intensity.

Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to a new landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane. Given the favorable winds pattern seen on numerical weather prediction models at this lead time, the intensity forecast is again significantly upgraded.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should still closely monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
417. Skyepony
2:56 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Information as of the most recent model cycle..

At 1200 UTC, 30 March 2014, HELLEN (SH21) was located in the South-West Indian basin at 14.7°S and 44.6°E. The current intensity was 130 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 140 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 926 mb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
416. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:06 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE HELLEN (14-20132014)
16:00 PM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen (935 hPa) located at 14.7S 44.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, and up to 95 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.2S 45.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropicale Intense)
24 HRS 15.7S 45.0E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropicale Intense)
48 HRS 16.6S 43.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
72 HRS 17.4S 41.9E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen has continued to intensify during the last 6 hours with an impressive well defined 18 NM wide eye. The current estimation of the intensity is based on manual Dvorak estimates with a 3 hrs average at 6.7 in good agreement with the NESDIS ADT at 6.9 at 1200z. Raw DT is at 7.0 since 1100z and NESDIS ADT is at 6.9 at 1200z. On this basis the system should reach the very intense tropical cyclone stage within the next few hours. Hellen is likely to be one of the most powerful tropical cyclone ever seen over the northern channel since the satellite era.

The system is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak (4.4 m/s according to CIMSS at 1200z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18S. Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking slowly southeastwards during the next 6 hours before being within a too slow steering environment that should lead to a quasi-stat motion. A weakening trend initiated by induced cold sea surface temperatures may taken place by that time. On the hand some numerical weather prediction models suggest a temporarily rising of the vertical wind shear tonight. The intensity forecast remains uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

Sunday night, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to its landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane. Given the favorable winds pattern seen on numerical weather prediction models at this lead time, the intensity forecast is significantly upgraded.

The track forecast has been adjusted southwards and lies between the ECMWF and GFS tracks. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar embraced for an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone. All preparations for a "worst case" scenario should be underway as a landfall intense system is still clearly a possibility.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should still closely monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
415. Skyepony
2:06 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
For Hellen over my night..

Terra shot


Modis shot. Click pic for loop.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
414. Skyepony
2:01 PM GMT on March 30, 2014
Finn~ Good to see you make it through happier for the rain.

Checked the damage down your way. There's a few 45mph winds. This was the worst of the damage.

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE WELLINGTON 26.65N 80.23W
03/29/2014 PALM BEACH FL PUBLIC

PLAYHOUSE BLOWN TO PIECES ACROSS YARD AND FAN BLADES
BLOWN OFF OUTSIDE PORCH.
REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
413. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:45 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICALE INTENSE HELLEN (14-20132014)
10:00 AM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Hellen (948 hPa) located at 14.4S 44.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.8S 44.7E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropicale Intense)
24 HRS 15.1S 44.9E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
48 HRS 15.7S 44.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 16.6S 41.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen has undergo an astounding rapid intensification over the last 24 hours that brings the system from a moderate tropical storm to an intense tropical cyclone. The system show this morning an impressive satellite presentation with a still improving eye pattern. The current estimation of the intensity is based on manual Dvorak estimates with a 3 hrs average at 6.15 in good agreement with the NESDIS ADT at 6.1 at 0600z.

The system is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak (5m/s according to CIMSS at 1800z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18S. Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking slowly southeastwards during the next 6 hours before being within a too slow steering environment that should lead to a quasi-stat motion. Therefore, the max intensity could be reached within the next 6h to 12 hrs with a max at 110 to potentially 115 knots. A weakening trend initiated by induced cold sea surface temperatures may taken place after that time.The intensity forecast remains uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

Sunday night, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to its landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane.

It is not totally excluded that system get more closer to Madagascar than the mentioned forecast. Some available numerical weather prediction models suggest a track close to Mahajonga or Besalampy coastlines.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar should also monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
412. LakeWorthFinn
7:12 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
All we got was lotsa rain and lightning. 0.67" in Lake Worth, where we went to a concert and dinner. Soaked...
Glad you're all well. I loved getting so much rain!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7279
411. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:44 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
2014MAR30 050000 5.9 932.8 +3.0 112.4 5.9 6.2 6.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -18.06 -75.73 EYE -99 IR 77.3 -14.35 -44.26

6.0 CI
6.5 Raw
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
410. whitewabit (Mod)
5:31 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
Quoting 409. Skyepony:
HELLEN
Second frame of daylight for the day.. Click pic to loop.



appears she has established a nice looking eye compared to what she looked like yesterday ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
409. Skyepony
5:28 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
HELLEN
Second frame of daylight for the day.. Click pic to loop.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
408. Skyepony
5:20 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
407. Skyepony
5:12 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
For ECFL highest wind was 54mph at Haulover Canal.

Close second, our very own..

0322 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S INDIALANTIC 28.05N 80.56W
03/29/2014 M51.00 MPH AMZ552 FL MESONET

WEATHER UNDERGROUND MESONET SITE.


Trailer in Melbourne lost part of it's roof. Sanford got the worst of the hail. Isle of Pines Subdivision in Orange County had trees down all over with houses hit. Lightning caught a house on fire in Lady Lake. Power lines all over Palm Bay Rd. Local reports.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
406. Skyepony
4:56 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
Helen NOAA forecast
Time of Latest Forecast: 201403300000
Forecast Hour Latitude Longitude Intensity
0 -14.1 43.9 90
12 -14.5 44.3 110
24 -14.8 44.7 120
36 -15.1 45.1 105
48 -15.5 44.8 85
72 -16.1 43.1 65
96 -16.8 41.3 55
120 -17.6 39.5 45




Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:34 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICALE HELLEN (14-20132014)
4:00 AM RET March 30 2014
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Hellen (970 hPa) located at 14.1S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrant, and up to 75 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.5S 44.9E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
24 HRS 14.5S 44.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropicale)
48 HRS 14.9S 43.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 15.5S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen keeps on intensifying rapidly and shows a pinhole eye in infrared imagery since 2100z.

Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward, Hellen will keep on tracking south-eastwards during the next 24 hours. Along-track environmental conditions are favorable during the next 12 to 24 hours. System is lying under an upper level ridge axis aloft. Vertical wind shear is weak (5m/s according to CIMSS at 1800z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18s. Sea surface temperatures are very high over this area (29-30C).

Sunday late, the mid-tropospheric near-equatorial ridge is expected to weaken. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down clearly. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding southward. Hellen should keep on tracking on this west southwest path up to its landfall Wednesday night or Thursday on the Mozambican coastlines in the area of Quelimane.

On this expected path, the upper level wind shear strengthening Monday is expected to weaken clearly this small system. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level wind shear is expected to weaken again. The intensity forecast is uncertain according to the small size of the system and its sensibility to the variation of the environmental conditions.

It is not totally excluded that system get more closer to Madagascar than the mentioned forecast. Some available numerical weather prediction models suggest a track close to Mahajonga or Besalampy coastlines.

Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar should also monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
404. auburn (Mod)
12:25 AM GMT on March 30, 2014
I planted something...
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50531
402. Skyepony
11:57 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
OR~ Yes, Quite soggy. Baby millet grass is loving it though.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
401. OrangeRoses
11:41 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Soggy? I didn't check your rain totals but this morning FL clouds were dense
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400. Skyepony
11:39 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Hood~ Yeah, I really don't need to be making donuts.. Kinda wish you had that recipe though.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
399. RobDaHood
11:00 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Quoting 398. Skyepony:
Making bagels..making me want some homemade donuts..

Fortunately I don't have mom's recipe for donuts.
Already ate too many bagels this week!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
398. Skyepony
10:52 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Updated the entry. Emanuel's models are working again:) So added Hellen's.

Here is Hellen's intensity model..I like 60-75kts. Here's MIMIC.


Gillian~ NOAA still hasn't taken the floater down there is a few puffs of clouds there. I think they've left it up because of the plane search.



Making bagels..making me want some homemade donuts..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
397. RobDaHood
10:42 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Rain is over. Critters are out looking for dinner.
Looks like maybe a nice sunset.

All is well.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
396. Skyepony
10:36 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Quoting 395. whitewabit:


looked like a lot of lightning with them .. bow wa just north of you .. good rain if it soaked in ..

Yeah, had made it back to the house before the worst. there was a mesocyclone go just south. Had company.

May have stopped now.. 0.81" Saw some pooling & ponding but it did for the most part soak in. I should have planted yesterday. Did plant a few hundred carrots the other day.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
395. whitewabit (Mod)
10:21 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Quoting 391. Skyepony:
Winds did come up.. 29mph. Yard doesn't look too bad. That storm a few months ago that blew a garbage can over the house was worse & had cleared alot of dead.. 0.76" so far. Still raining good.

It has more lightning than any storm in atleast 6 months. Now it's not very frequent but they are very harsh sounding when there is a strike.

Tampa radar is working again.

Thanks for checking on me everyone:)

{{{Finn}}} & those south~ Hope you are ready for some storm..



looked like a lot of lightning with them .. bow wa just north of you .. good rain if it soaked in ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
394. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:32 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Hellen (986 hPa) located at 13.5S 43.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.1S 44.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale
24 HRS 14.3S 45.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale
48 HRS 14.9S 44.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 15.1S 42.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=========================
Hellen keeps on intensifying and shows a tiny eye in 89 ghz (f-18 at 17:34). As explained in previous warnings, Hellen shows a rather small size convective core extending up to about 1 dg radius from the center and should therefore be rather sensitive to rapid intensity fluctuations.

Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward (refer to ECMWF 700 and 600 HPA fields), hellen is tracking east southeastwards and is expected to keep on tracking globally southeastwards until Sunday. Along-track environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification with upper level ridge axis aloft (refer to 250 HPA ECMWF fields). Vertical wind shear is weak (2.5m/s according to CIMSS at 1200z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18S. Sea surface temperatures are very high over this area (29-30C). Peripheral bands extending mainly in the north-eastern semi-circle and should concern Mayotte and the Comoros within the next days and are expected on Sunday to extend rapidly up to north-western coast of Madagascar.

Sunday late, equatorial inflow is expected to clearly weaken and system should be under 2 competing steering flow between the afore-mentionned equatorward ridge and a strengthening subtropical one. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge. On Monday, vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen as system track closer to the subtropical westerly jet. Hellen could then weakening temporarily. On and after Tuesday, the upper level wind shear could decrease again and limit the weakening of the system. It is not totally excluded that system get more closer to Madagascar than the mentioned forecast.

Some available numerical weather prediction models suggest a track close to Mahajonga or Besalampy coastlines. Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar should also monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
393. RobDaHood
9:22 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Appreciate you checking in. Just light rain here but a whole lot of thunder in the distance the last couple hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
392. Skyepony
9:16 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Did edit my enso forcast from the other day.. I hadn't changed the forecast time til El nino conditions start, but since it was a week since last forecast I should have took a week off both numbers. 7-12weeks should have been changed to 6-11 weeks. Glancing at that aspect right now..slight chance it could be even sooner. In the last month region 3.4 went from -0.6 to 0.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
391. Skyepony
9:04 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Winds did come up.. 29mph. Yard doesn't look too bad. That storm a few months ago that blew a garbage can over the house was worse & had cleared alot of dead.. 0.76" so far. Still raining good.

It has more lightning than any storm in atleast 6 months. Now it's not very frequent but they are very harsh sounding when there is a strike.

Tampa radar is working again.

Thanks for checking on me everyone:)

{{{Finn}}} & those south~ Hope you are ready for some storm..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
390. LakeWorthFinn
8:27 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Stay safe {{{Skye}}} and everybody under watches and warnings!
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389. whitewabit (Mod)
6:37 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Tornado vortex headed toward Cocoa ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
388. whitewabit (Mod)
6:35 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Melbourne going to be hit right in the middle of a big bow !! winds should be up .. hang on to your hat Skye !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
387. RobDaHood
6:27 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Looking nasty over your way. Be safe Skye!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
386. whitewabit (Mod)
6:02 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Your about to be hit by those thunderstorms and there is a huge amount of lightning on the back side of it so be careful don there !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
385. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
looks like Hellen could become a hurricane now.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
384. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HELLEN (14-20132014)
16:00 PM RET March 29 2014
===============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hellen (992 hPa) located at 13.1S 43.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 13.6S 44.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale
24 HRS 14.2S 44.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale
48 HRS 14.8S 44.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 15.3S 42.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale

Additional Information
=========================

Hellen keeps on intensifying and shows an eye on 37 ghz AMSRE microwave imagery and the beginning of a band eye almost closed in 89 ghz. System is now very close to severe tropical storm stage. As explained in previous warnings, Hellen shows a rather small size convective core extending up to about 1 dg radius from the center and should therefore be rather sensitive to rapid intensity fluctuations.

Under the steering influence of the mid-levels ridge located northward (refer to ECMWF 700 and 600 HPA fields), Hellen is tracking east-south-eastwards and is expected to keep on tracking globally southeastwards until Sunday. Along-track environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification with upper level ridge axis aloft (refer to 250 HPA ECMWF fields). Vertical wind shear is weak (5.6 m/s according to CIMSS at 0000z) and upper level divergence is good mainly poleward in relationship with a westerly subtropical jet existing south of 18.0S. Sea surface temperatures are very high over this area (29/30C). Peripheral bands extending mainly in the northeastern semi-circle and should concern Mayotte and the Comoros within the next days and are expected on Sunday to extend rapidly up to north-western coast of Madagascar.

Sunday late, equatorial inflow is expected to clearly weaken and system should be under 2 competing steering flow between the afore-mentioned equatorward ridge and a strengthening subtropical one. Hellen is therefore expected to slow down. On and after Monday, Hellen should re-curve westwards then southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge. On Monday, vertical wind-shear is expected to strengthen as system track closer to the subtropical westerly jet. Hellen could then weakening temporarily.

On and after Tuesday, along-track environmental conditions are expected to be back favorable with upper level ridge axis aloft. A new phase of limited intensification could then occur. It is not totally excluded that system get more closer to Madagascar than the mentioned forecast.

Some available numerical weather prediction models suggest a track close to Mahajonga coastline (ALDIN 00z) or making landfall near Besalampy (GFS 00z). Given the vicinity of the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte, the inhabitants of this islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. The inhabitants of the northwestern coasts of Madagascar should also monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
383. Ylee
2:10 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
How did you do the pale green background, Skye? I'd like to do something like that on my blog! (Not green, lol)
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382. Skyepony
2:09 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
381. Skyepony
2:07 PM GMT on March 29, 2014
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 75.2 °F
Dew Point: 74.8 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 4:59 AM EDT on July 25, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 64.2 °F
Dew Point: 62.2 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 4:59 AM EDT on July 25, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 64.0 °F
Dew Point: 64.0 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 4:12 AM EDT on July 25, 2014

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